Are you responsible for business development, corporate social responsibility or developing policy? This essential briefing takes a closer look at the complex land use issues surrounding the emerging bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based product sectors.

1. NNFCC
The Bioeconomy Consultants
The changing face of the planet:
The role of bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based products
in global land use change
May 2012

2. D o we have enough land to feed the planet and produce
the low carbon energy, fuels and materials needed by a
population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050?
As the world’s population increases But biomass has one crucial property
and greater pressure is put on global that makes it unique; it is renewable and
resources we need to think carefully takes just a few years to make instead of
about how we manage the ground thousands or even millions of years.
beneath our feet and what changes to
It also has a key advantage over other
land use will mean to environmentally
low carbon technologies. Biomass fixes
responsible businesses.
carbon into something tangible which
Despite adopting more efficient can be stored and moved, and will be
practices, our appetite for energy, fuels available even when the sun isn’t shining
and materials continues to grow and or the wind isn’t blowing.
so too does the cost of fossil fuel. The
As a source of energy we can use it to
challenge we now face is to find a cost-
meet peak demand in national electricity
effective, sustainable solution to this
grids. It is also our only low carbon
problem but is large-scale biomass
alternative to natural gas and liquid
cultivation the answer? NNFCC takes a
transport fuels. And as a source of
closer look at the issues.
chemicals it provides a viable alternative
Why biomass? to many oil-based plastics.
Plants convert solar radiation into
biomass, which can be used to make
Growing demand for biomass
Responsibility for developing low carbon
food, feed, fuel, energy and materials.
sources of energy, like biofuels and
Biomass shares many properties with
bioenergy, often falls on government. But
fossil fuels, after all coal and oil is simply
the drivers vary between countries and
biomass which has undergone a physical
this is having a major role in shaping the
and chemical change under extreme
developing market.
pressure and temperature.

3. Around 85% of the energy, fuels & materials we use come from irreplacable fossil fuels.
In Europe, energy policy is largely Similarly in Brazil, the established
geared towards reducing the carbon infrastructure and suitable climate make
emissions associated with energy and conditions ideal for growing sugar cane
fuel production. and they export over a billion dollars
worth of bioethanol each year1 to
More environmentally friendly fuel and
international fuel and chemical markets.
energy markets are being stimulated
to meet future targets set out by the In fact, Brazilian bioethanol exports
Renewable Energy Directive and new are second only in the world to the US1,
sustainability criteria will ensure where long-term energy security is now
biomass is sourced responsibly. as much of a political priority as short-
term economic growth.
In comparison, economic development
plays a far more important role in According to the BP Statistical Review2,
countries like Canada and in the Baltics, 753 billion barrels or close to 55 per
where their large wood resources are cent of the world’s oil can be found in
exported for use in the paper, timber and the Middle East. The US in comparison
woodfuel sectors. contains around 2 per cent of the world’s

4. Bioplastics currently account for a little
over 1% of the world plastics market.
oil reserves but currently uses more Studies3 have shown that nearly 50 per
than 21 per cent of it. This also means cent of consumers say environmental
that with current trends, US oil reserves issues affect their purchasing decisions.
will be depleted in the next 10 years2,
Consequently brands are looking to
putting even greater pressure on oil
demonstrate sustainability and show
imports.
corporate social responsibility by
This has driven the US to invest investing in bio-based products like
millions into developing the market bioplastics, compostable packaging and
for domestically grown biofuels and renewable building materials to give
mandating their use through the them an advantage in the marketplace.
Renewable Fuel Standard.
Brands are also aware of the role that
In comparison to energy and fuel campaigners can have on consumer
markets, the role of the consumer in the choices, as demonstrated by the
bio-based products market is far more Greenpeace campaign against Nestlé’s
prominent. This is partly because the use of unsustainable palm oil which
market is considerably smaller but also prompted Nestlé to change their
because there is more direct contact procurement policy.
between product and consumer.
Consumers are increasingly familiar
Competition for land
On paper we have more than enough
with terms like ‘low carbon’, ‘sustainable’
room to satisfy our appetite for food,
and ‘eco-friendly’, and this is having an
feed, bioenergy, biofuels and bioplastics
impact on what they buy.
for decades to come.

5. According to the FAO and OECD4 we
could more than double the amount
Looking to the future
Being prepared for the future allows
of land currently in crop production
businesses to develop the correct
around the globe, from 1400 million to
business development strategy that
over 3300 million hectares.
will give them the edge over their
However, not all of this land can competitors.
sustainably be brought into cultivation.
Predicting how land use will change over
Population growth, protection of food
the forthcoming years is hugely complex
security and changing diets will increase
but vitally important to anyone investing
competition for land dramatically.
in the biomass supply chain.
We also need to protect our ecosystem
Land requirements for biomass will
services, forests and areas of high
depend on how future markets and
biodiversity against exploitation.
technologies develop, and also how
Projections4 suggest this will leave quickly we can continue along the path
between 250 and 800 million hectares of towards a circular economy where
land available for other uses. ‘waste’ becomes the raw material for
other processes.
But precisely how much of this land
will be needed to satisfy the growing We are starting to see significant
demands for bioenergy, biofuels progress in this area and those who are
and bioplastics remains a source of not aware of the developing market are
uncertainty. at risk of being left behind.
Carbon recycling: an integrated approach.

6. 13% of the coarse grain,
15% of the vegetable oil
& 30% of the sugar cane
grown globally in 2020 could
be used to make biofuels4.
Although bioenergy and biofuels will This falls within the range of land area
increasingly utilise non-food feedstocks potentially available for non-food crops.
to meet sustainability demands, crops But even converting this “available”
grown for energy and fuel production land remains a challenge, as much of it
could use some 117 million hectares of is on continents like Africa and South
agriclutural land by 2030, if we assume America, often far from agricultural
some “extended” land use5. infrastructure and significant investment
would be needed to realistically make
In addition, if the bioplastics industry
this land available for cultivating crops.
continues to grow at its current rate,
they could replace up to 10 per cent of This can lead to land grabbing and
all plastics by 2030. This could require population displacement; two major
an additional 14 million hectares of land. issues that are stifling progress. In
addition, when we look further into the
Combining the estimated size of the
future, land is likely to become further
bioenergy, biofuels and bioplastics
constrained as the finite amount of land
markets by 2030 suggests we would
we have available is put under increased
require more than 130 million hectares
pressure from the growing global
of land.
economy.
Land use from different bio-based markets
in 2030 (ranges given in brackets).
Market Percentage of total Land required,
Bioenergy & Biofuels5 3 (1 to 9) 117 (50 to 300)
market in 2030 millions of hectares
Bioplastics 10 (5 to 20) 14 (4 to 55)
Total - 129 (54 to 355)

7. And should bioenergy and biofuels
represent 6 per cent of the total global
Land use from different bio-based markets
energy market by 2050; the land needed
in 2050 (ranges given in brackets).
for crops could rise to 400 million
Market Percentage of Land required,
hectares, if we assume some “extended”
total market millions of
land use5. Bioenergy 6 (1 to 18) 400 (100 to 700)
in 2050 hectares
& Biofuels5
The use of biomass for plastics Bioplastics 20 (10 to 40) 34 (10 to 200)
production will also continue to Total - 434 (110 to 900)
increase. By 2050 bioplastics could
account for up to 20 per cent of all As competition for resources increases
plastics or around 142 million tonnes this could potentially drive up feedstock
per year. This would require 34 million costs and put greater pressure on
hectares of land. sustainability; directly and indirectly
impacting on biodiversity, water and
This means that all together we may fertiliser use across the globe.
need over 430 million hectares to meet
our requirements for bioenergy, biofuels For example, some parts of America,
and bioplastics in 2050, which could Western Europe and Southern Asia may
seriously test the limits of the amount of become almost entirely dependent on
land sustainably available for growing imports of nutrients.
non-food crops.
Waste biomass is set to become an
increasingly important resource.

8. 1200
Bioenergy and Biofuels
1000 Bioplastics
Upper maximum amount of sustainable land
Land required, millions of hectares
800
600
400
Lower maximum amount of sustainable land
200
0
Low Medium High Low Medium High
2030 2050
Predicted biomass demand scenarios versus land availability in 2030 and 2050.

9. Energy markets could also benefit from
adopting more efficient practices. In
What is the solution?
Future land use is difficult to predict but
the UK, co-firing of coal and wood is
what is certain is that competition for
an efficient way to make electricity
land will increase.
but this may not be the best use of our
We can minimise competition for land resources7,8.
by increasing it’s productivity. Improved
Technological advances in fermentation,
breeding and management techniques
gasification and pyrolysis, have made
will increase the productivity of crops,
it possible to convert biomass into
particularly non-food crops, like willow
electricity, heat, fuels and chemicals
and Miscanthus, which have been
at high conversion efficiencies. This
largely uncultivated6. An annual yield
approach also allows us to make better
increase of just 2 per cent would double
use of non-food feedstocks such as
production volumes by 2050 without
wood, algae, household rubbish and
any land expansion.
agricultural residues.
We can also use these feedstocks
High volumes of agricultural residues
better. For example, we can produce 3.1
are generated in South America and Asia,
tonnes of polyethylene from a hectare
and are likely to increase in the medium
of brazilian sugar cane but the same
term in line with food production. By
hectare of brazilian sugar cane can make
utilising these resources we can reduce
7.9 tonnes of polylactic acid. Both are
demands on land while still returning
used in the production of bioplastics that
some of the nutrients back to the soil.
offer similar functionality.
Global supply constraints and opportunities in 2050.

10. Another promising option for reducing particualry those with limited renewable
land use requirements is to build alternatives.
intergrated biorefineries. By building
refineries that produce food, feed,
energy, fuel, chemicals and nutrients
Conclusion: Be prepared
Businesses are increasingly being judged
together; we can minimise waste and on their ability to manage supply chains
produce a wide range of chemicals and sustainably.
fuels tailored to specific purposes.
As the transition to a low carbon
In many cases there are also alternative economy gathers speed, businesses
sources of renewable energy and fuels need to be proactive rather than reactive
that can replace fossil fuels, but biomass to the changing marketplace, as the
is our only low carbon source of plastic, decisions they make now will determine
aviation and marine fuel. This is where their success in the future.
our efforts should be focussed.
To ensure we minimise the impact
In the mean time these developing of bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based
markets will benefit from the growth of products on land use and food
more mature sectors like road transport production we must:
biofuels and bioenergy, including
• Use our existing resources better by
logistical and technology developments
driving innovation
such as the ability to process
• Use more non-food feedstocks like
lignocellulosic feedstocks like wood.
wastes, agricultural residues, algae
But we urgently need more stable and and lignocellulosic crops
harmonised policies, backed up by • Push policies towards sectors with
bold decision making to support the limited alternatives
development of low carbon technologies,
General guiding principles for the future use of biomass,
larger words have greater priority for biomass use.

11. Image courtesy of Drax.
Background Information
1. USDA (2011) ‘Brazil’s Ethanol
Industry: Looking Forward’ -
www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/
2. BP (2011) ‘Statistical Review’ -
BIO02/BIO02.pdf
3. Tangible Branding (2011) ‘Market
www.bp.com/statisticalreview
Research’ -
4. FAO & OECD (2011) ‘Agricultural
www.tangiblebranding.com
Outlook 2011-2020’ -
5. Committee on Climate Change (2011)
www.agri-outlook.org
‘Bioenergy Review’ - www.theccc.org.
6. UKERC (2011) ‘Energy from biomass:
uk/reports/bioenergy-review
the size of the global resource’ -
www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-
7. NNFCC (2009) ‘Review of
download_file.php?fileId=2098
Technologies for Gasification of
Biomass and Wastes, NNFCC 09-008’
- www.nnfcc.co.uk/tools/review-
of-technologies-for-gasification-of-
8. NNFCC (2010) ‘GHG Benefits from
biomass-and-wastes-nnfcc-09-008
Use of Vegetable Oils for Electricity,
Heat, Transport and Industrial
Purposes, NNFCC 10-016’ -
www.nnfcc.co.uk/tools/ghg-benefits-
from-use-of-vegetable-oils-for-
electricity-heat-transport-and-
industrial-purposes-nnfcc-10-016

12. NNFCC is a leading international consultancy with expertise on the
conversion of biomass to bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based products.
NNFCC
Biocentre
York Science Park
Innovation Way
York
YO10 5DG
United Kingdom
Telephone: +44 (0)1904 435182
Email: enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk
Website: www.nnfcc.com