Presentation on Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and Implementation Processes by Tsitsi Makombe, Director of External Relations, AKADEMIYA2063

1. Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and
Implementation Processes
Tsitsi Makombe (Presenter), Wondwosen Tefera, and John M. Ulimwengu
Director of External Relations, AKADEMIYA2063
November 5, 2020

2. What is Being Tracked?
• ReSAKSS provides data & knowledge
products to inform CAADP processes
• Tracks progress on > 30 CAADP indicators
using CAADP Results Framework (RF)
(2015-2025) [38 indicators]
oReSAKSS website: www.resakss.org
oFlagship Annual Trends and Outlook
Report (ATOR)
• Chapter 16 in 2020 ATOR discusses
progress on 25/38 CAADP RF indicators
• 5 quantitative indicators presented today
CAADP Results Framework: 2015-2025

3. Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes
• Operationalizing Malabo Declaration & CAADP RF requires NAIPs aligned with goals &
targets of the Declaration Malabo Domestication Event
• ReSAKSS analysis (with local experts) informs design of NAIPs: SAP, MGM, PPO reports
• Agriculture JSR assessments completed in 21 countries & 2 RECs (ECOWAS & EAC)
• Two CAADP Biennial Reviews (BRs) held in 2017 and 2019
Region Malabo
Domestication
Malabo
Status
Assessment
Profile (SAP)
Malabo
Goals &
Milestones
(MGM)
Malabo
Compliant
NAIP
JSR
Assessment
Completed
1st
BR 2nd
BR
Africa 25 31 25 21 21 47 49
Central 2 2 2 1 9 8
Eastern 5 6 1 4 6 10 13
Northern 4 3
Southern 9 8 7 2 6 10 10
Western 9 15 15 15 8 14 15

4. Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Government Agricultural Expenditures (GAE)
• Africa’s GAE more than doubled btwn 1995–2003
and 2014–2019, from $9.6 billion to $19.6 billion
• However, growth in GAE has slowed, 3 % in 2014-
2019 compared with 6.3 % in 2003-2008
• Africa’s share of GAE in total government
expenditure is below the CAADP 10 % target (3.3 %
in 2014-2019)
• Seven countries met or surpassed the 10 % target in
2014–2019
0
4
8
12
16
20
Ethiopia
Malawi
SierraLeone
Senegal
Mali
Liberia
BurkinaFaso
Niger
Benin
Zambia
Lesotho
Tunisia
Mozambique
Rwanda
Cameroon
CapeVerde
Togo
Morocco
Zimbabwe
Gambia
S.Tome&Principe
Madagascar
Tanzania
Cent.Af.Rep.
Namibia
Swaziland
Uganda
Côted'Ivoire
Guinea
Nigeria
Kenya
Mauritius
Guinea-Bissau
Chad
Seychelles
Egypt
Burundi
Botswana
Congo,Rep.
Gabon
SouthAfrica
Mauritania
Sudan
Ghana
Angola
SouthSudan
Comoros
EquatorialGuinea
Algeria
Congo,Dem.Rep.
Djibouti
Eritrea
Annualaveragelevel(%)
Annual avg. level (2014-2019) CAADP 10% target
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Africa Central
Africa
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
Southern
Africa
Western
Africa
Annualaveragechange(%)
GAE Growth (%)
Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019)

5. Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Agricultural Growth
• Africa’s agriculture value added growth remained
below 6 percent CAADP target, grew at 3.2 % in 2014-
2019
• Higher growth in Central Africa of 4.2 % in 2014-2019
• Ten countries met or surpassed the 6 percent target in
2014–2019
• Gabon, Guinea, Kenya growth of > 10 %
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Africa Central
Africa
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
Southern
Africa
Western
Africa
Annualaveragechange(%)
Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019) CAADP 6% target
-12
-6
0
6
12
Guinea
Gabon
Kenya
Guinea-Bissau
Niger
Zimbabwe
Senegal
Rwanda
Benin
Congo,Dem.Rep.
Ethiopia
Mali
Cameroon
Mozambique
Algeria
Lesotho
Tunisia
Egypt
Tanzania
EquatorialGuinea
Seychelles
Cent.Af.Rep.
Uganda
Togo
Mauritania
Congo,Rep.
BurkinaFaso
S.Tome&Principe
Comoros
Nigeria
Morocco
Côted'Ivoire
SierraLeone
Ghana
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Botswana
Chad
Mauritius
Swaziland
Namibia
SouthAfrica
Gambia
Sudan
Burundi
Angola
CapeVerde
Zambia
AnnualAverageChange(%)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019) CAADP 6% target

6. Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Undernourishment
• Prevalence of undernourishment was
on a declining trend for many years
• From 20.6 % in 2003-08 to 18.6 in
2017
• However, since 2015, prevalence
started to increase across Africa &
many country groupings (esp. Central
& Western Africa)
• Africa’s, number of undernourished
has steadily increased since 2009
• From 159.8 million in 2009 to 205.7
million in 2017 ( up 28.7 %)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Undernourishedpeople(in
millions)
Prevalenceofundernourishment
(%)
Africa
Prevalence of undernourishment (%) Undernourished people (in millions)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Prevalenceofundernourishment(%)
Eastern Africa Central Africa Southern Africa
Africa Western Africa Northern Africa

7. Progress in CAADP Indicators: Child Malnutrition
• Africa’s prevalence of child stunting,
underweight, & wasting has been on a
declining trend over the last two decades
• Despite progress, prevalence of stunting
is considered High (esp. Central Africa:
37 %)
• Africa’s prevalence of child underweight
(at 16.4 % ) & wasting (at 7.3 %) is
Medium in 2014-2019
• Child underweight High in Central Africa and
Eastern Africa (>20 %)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Prevalenceofchildmalnutrition(%)
Africa
Stunting Underweight Wasting
Indicator
< 20% Low prevalence
20-29% Medium prevalence
30-39% High prevalence
=> 40% Very high prevalence
< 10% Low prevalence
10-19% Medium prevalence
20-29% High prevalence
=> 30% Very high prevalence
< 5% Low prevalence
5-9% Medium prevalence
10-14% High prevalence
=>15% Very high prevalence
SEVERITY OF MALNUTRITION BY PREVALENCE RANGES
Prevalence cut-off values
Stunting
Underweight
Wasting
Source: WHO (2020).

8. Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Poverty Headcount Ratio ($1.90/Day)
• Africa has consistently reduced the
incidence of poverty over the last two
decades
• From 45.6 % in 1995-2003 to 35.8 % in 2014-
2019
• However, number of people living on less
than $1.90/day has steadily risen since
2000s,
• From 298 million in 2002 to 337 million in
2019
• COVID-19 could drive up to 26-40 million
people into extreme poverty in SSA in
2020-2021, erasing years of progress in
fighting poverty (World Bank, 2020)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Numberofporpeople(millions)
Proportionofpoorpeople(%)
Proportion of poor people (%) Number of poor people (millions)

9. Conclusions & Implications
• Steady progress in CAADP implementation
• No. of poor people, both proportion & no. of undernourished are increasing
• Slowing growth in GAE expenditures
• Only 7 countries met CAADP 10 % budget target; 10 met CAADP 6 % growth target
• Need to consolidate progress & urgently tackle regressing areas
• Raise level of agricultural investments & productivity
• Improve market access & trade infrastructure
• Keep borders open to promote cross-border trade in food and ag inputs
• Invest in better health & food security outcomes; support social protection &
resilience building initiatives
• Hasten efforts to formulate & implement evidence-based NAIPs

10. THANK YOU!

11. Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Intra-African Agricultural Trade
• Remarkable growth in intra-African agricultural
trade
• Intra-African agricultural exports nearly tripled
btwn 1995-2003 and 2014-2018 [$5.2 billion to
$15.3 billion]
• Southern Africa dominates intra-African
agricultural exports and imports at 52 % and 44
% in 2014-2018, respectively
Central
Africa
1%
Eastern
Africa
20%
Northern
Africa
14%
Southern
Africa
52%
Western
Africa
13%
Exports (2014-2018)
Central
Africa
9%
Eastern
Africa
17%
Northern
Africa
14%
Southern
Africa
44%
Western
Africa
16%
Imports (2014-2018)

12. Progress in CAADP Indicators:
GDP Per Capita
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Africa
CentralAfrica
EasternAfrica
NorthernAfrica
SouthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
AnnualAverageChange(%)
GDP Per Capita Growth
Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019)
• GDP per capita has declined since 2008
• Africa’s GDP per capita grew by 3.3 % in
2003-2008, 1.2 % in 2008-2014; 0.2 % in
2014-2019
• Decline linked to the recent global
economic slowdown & lower commodity
prices, esp. in 2016
• Growth expected to contract further in
2020 due to COVID-19