Melina Duggal Charles G. Pattison Debra Dremann Frances Marino The 2060 Plan prepared by the 1000 Friends of Florida presented an ominous scenario of sprawling development in Florida. Since then, new policies at the state and local level, changes in the availability of capital both for development and conservation, and demographic and economic trends have likely altered Florida’s future outlook. Is 2060 just delayed, or have development patterns changed forever? A panel of experts will discuss likely growth scenarios, define ways to capitalize on alternative development trends and present ideas on conservation, planning, financing, and approaches to development that can be successful in these economic times and the future.

1. Florida 2060 Revisited Charles Pattison Frances Chandler-Marino Melina Duggal Debra Dremann Wellyn Land Company

2. Florida 2060 In 2006, the 1000 Friends of Florida sanctioned a trend analysis of development/population distribution Based on 2005 data Depicted a sprawling pattern of development that covered much of central Florida

3. Population Forecast 35.8 Million 17.9 Million 2060 2005

4. Revised BEBR Mid Ranch Population Numbers 2005 – 2020 22,894,140 v. 21,325,800 (93%) 2020 – 2040 29,203,842 v. 26,081,800 (89%) 2040 – 2060 35,814,574 v. 32,591,262 (91%)

5. Assumptions 1. Moderate Population Growth (BEBR trend line) 2. New population consumes land at same density as existing development, by County 3. New population distributed geographically based on land suitability (existing urban, roadways, water, coastline, wetlands)

6. Developed Land Conservation LandsPermanently Protected Existing Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

7. Developed Land Conservation LandsPermanently Protected 2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

8. Statewide Land Use Allocation (millions of acres) PermanentlyProtectedConservation10.8 PermanentlyProtectedConservation10.8 Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands12.5 Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands19.5 Water2.0 Water2.0 Urban Development6.0 Urban Development13.0 2060 2005 Total: 38.3 Million Acres

9. Developed Land Conservation LandsPermanently Protected Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands 2005 2060

10. Issues Not Addressed Water supply Additional land acquisition Sea level rise Changes in market demand Reasonableness of business as usual Local comprehensive plans

11. IS Florida 2060 Still Relevant? Have market conditions changed forever? Are the 2005 assumptions still reasonable? Has the sprawling pattern of development become obsolete? Is the financial climate so dissimilar that growth can’t be funded?

12. Revisiting 2060 Delayed or Different? A Market Perspective 12

13. We Are In The Recovery Phase…It Just Doesn’t Feel Like It Yet… 13

14. Unemployment Rates By County 2007 Annual Averages

15. Unemployment Rates By County 2009 Annual Averages September 2010

16. Unemployment Rates By County March 2010 – February 2011 Averages FL still suffering

17. Unemployment Rates By County August 2010 – July 2011 Averages Starting to look better

19. Housing starts begin to rise in 2012

20. Lending standards and regulatory uncertainties loosen in 2012

21. Boomers and Gen Y enter market in 2015+RCLCO PROJECTIONS FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE RECOVERY

22. 9 Million New People Projected in FL by 2040 Projected Population Growth (Thousands) by Planning Region 2010-2040 SOURCE: BEBR Medium-High Projections from June 2011

23. In 2005, 35.8 Projected In 2060, Now 32.2m Projected In 2060 SOURCE: BEBR, RCLCO, US Census 20

24. 21 Current Supply And Demand SUPPLY: STILL OVER SUPPLIED But we’ve reduced inventories since 2007 Not out of the woods, but not 2007 THEN: Values will always go up: Wrong NOW: Everything has changed permanently: Wrong DEMAND: TWO BIG MARKETS WILL IMPACT FLORIDA Generation Y enters housing market Boomers retire – FL still warm and sunny SOURCE: RCLCO

25. Long-term Demographic Trends Influencing How We Live Key Demographic Drivers: Generational shifts Rise of non-traditional households Growth in minority households Domestic migration and foreign Immigration Income and wealth 22

26. Gen Y And Baby Boomers Two Largest Groups Nationally And In Florida SOURCE: Claritas, National Center for Health Statistics 23

27. Life Stage Influences Housing Choices SOURCE: RCLCO

28. 25 Where Do Different Generations Want To Live? Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011

29. 26 How Does Product Preference Change By Generation? Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011

31. City

32. More renters

33. MF, attached & small lot detached

34. 30% attached

35. Suburban

36. Dominated by SFD, both small and large lot

37. 15% attached

38. Rural/Small Town

39. Primarily large lot SFD

40. 8% attached Canin Associates

41. Demographics: Impact Of Boomer “Urban myth” = prefer “safe urbanism” Village center – entertainment & retail services nearby – walkable! Healthy active lifestyles Affordability Smaller, move-down homes, high-level of finish May rejuvenate 2nd home market Low-maintenancelifestyle Niche SFD and SFA products 28 SOURCE: RCLCO

42. Demographics: Impact of Gen X Primarily families - still have to build for the family buyer Good schools!!!!!! Larger lots/homes Affordability Healthy active lifestyles – safe neighborhoods, parks, trails and walkability! Hard to balance life - also desire in-town areas and inner suburbs close to jobs, entertainment & services SOURCE: RCLCO 29

43. Demographics: Impact Of Gen Y In-town areas and inner suburbs will remain on an upward trajectory Diversity, walkability and proximity to jobs keys to attracting this segment Suburbs will need to evolve to remain attractive to Gen Y More walkable areas, including new and existing town centers Master planned communities Niche products and “village centers” Affordability SOURCE: RCLCO 30

44. How is the Development Community Responding ? 2007 to 2010 TODAY

45. Florida Housing Permits – Peak to Trough 2010 Florida increased to 38,679 Units – Ranking #3 of the Top 10 States Texas #1 at 88,461 and California at 43,716 Source: US Census Bureau

48. Tremendous Amount of Competition

49. Changing Demographics

51. Banks stillVERY slow to move non-performing loans off of balance sheets

52. Home Values not at Bottom Yet – Market Specific

53. Continued Foreclosures activity for 2 to 3 more years

55. Access to Capital is BACK

56. Home Affordability is BACK (If you can qualify)

57. Florida still very desirable for Baby Boomers

58. The Rise of Gen Y

60. Boomers & Gen Y - Smaller homes & lots

61. Families - McMansions at $64/sf

62. Single Family Detached more so than Attached

63. Multi-Family High DemandForest Creek in Parrish, FL – Neal Communities Townhome – 1,496 SF Rose Cottage – 27’ x 130’ - 1,200 SF

64. What’s Important in a Home? Some consumers motivated by “green” but not paying premium. Builder’s see it as a Differentiator! Buying the house I “need” not NEED + INVESTMENT. 2nd Home and vacation home market still struggling (foreign national buyers back) Primary Luxury market back in some places – Still at a Discount

65. Where are they buying?

66. AVAILABILITY OF CAPITAL Private versus Public

68. Higher Costs of Capital

69. Cautiously approaching new land deals

70. Competition - A lot of new players on the scene

71. A lot of looking, not a lot of buying

73. “A” Markets - Bank Debt Back

75. Lower Costs of Capital

76. More Aggressively approaching new land deals

77. A lot of Competition

78. Must maintain a pipeline

80. Good Access to Cheaper Capital

82. Higher costs of Capital

83. Some new start-ups are emerging – Affordable Niche Products in Existing Communities & In-fill neighborhoods

85. 2011/2012 FORECAST “Greenfield” DEVELOPMENT

86. DEVELOPMENT FORECAST HEALTHIER & GREENER And maybe a little more dense…

87. Developer’s Perspective on 2060 – Delayed or Different? Different State will continue with acquisition of state lands in the future when budgets rebound Developer’s do understand that trails and open space are important to selling homes and good stewardship of the land Demographic shifts and changes in affordability & Interest rate volatility will keep most homes in the more compact range.

89. To create a bigger picture – a statewide vision that informs policy and spendingSeptember 29, 2011 Page 50

90. REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060 Focus on Natural Systems. Protect our natural systems as assets that serve to enhance our competitive position. Key Economic Locations. Identify economic development priority locations and support these areas with land use a capital program planning – on a statewide basis. Support the Evolution of Agricultural Industry. Prioritize commercial agriculture as an economic development objective and support the evolution of the agricultural enterprises.

91. REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060 State Multimodal Strategy. Create a statewide system of multimodal economic and social connectivity. Local Multimodal Strategy. Recognize and respect individual community characteristics through a “connectivity transect.” City, Town & Country. Allow ranges of policies to support various scales, densities, types, forms and uses consistent with the context of the community.

92. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:1. TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA Place a priority on taking care of those things that make Florida special and unique: Coastline Beaches Rivers Natural Systems Corridors

93. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:2. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS Make economic development a priority – really. Globally competitive on a statewide basis Strategic infrastructure investments Create a foundation for a 21st century economy High tech / target (urban) + industrial (rural) Tampa Biotech Incubators, UCF September 29, 2011 Page 54 DeSoto Solar Power Plant, Arcadia, FL

94. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:3. CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES Establish the framework for a statewide/ multi-modal system of economic and social connectivity. Commuter Rail, High Speed Rail, & Support Transit Airports Ports September 29, 2011 Page 55

95. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:4. CELEBRATE DIVERSITY Recognize and support the unique visioning efforts & lifestyle choices of each community. Regional Visioning efforts Local Visioning efforts Let Cities be Cities; Suburbs be Suburbs; and Rural areas be Rural – one size does not fit all Page 56 How Shall We Grow? 2009 myregion.org

96. PRIORITIES FOR A NEW 2060 TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA JOBS, JOBS, JOBS CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES CELEBRATE DIVERSITY Prioritize expenditures as investments to create our desired future – we’re worth it. September 29, 2011 Page 57

97. Florida 2060 Revisited Frances Chandler-Marino Melina Duggal Debra Dremann Charles Pattison Wellyn Land Company