1. 10TOP
R E F E R E N C E G U I D E
By Dr. Steven Goldman
BC/DR TRENDS
2014

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10
There has been an overall worldwide increase in
the number of natural disasters.
As a trend, the incidence of natural disasters worldwide has
steadily increased, especially since the 1970’s, according to
reports from the New England Journal of Medicine and from
global insurer Munich Re.
Climate-related disasters include hydrological events such as
floods, storm surge, and coastal flooding, while meteorological
events include storms, tropical cyclones, local storms, heat/cold
waves, drought,
and wildfires.
There were three
times as many
natural disasters
between 2000
to 2009 as
compared to the
amount between
1980 and 1989.
The NEJM article
notes that a vast
majority (80%) of this growth is due to climate-related events.
As a result, the amount of economic damage due to these
natural disasters has seen a steady upturn. This in turn means
that companies and organizations need to be prepared for
natural disasters.
Thenumberofgeophysicaldisastershasremainedfairlystable
since the 1970’s. Geophysical disasters include earthquakes,
volcanoes, dry rock falls, landslides, and avalanches.
What does this mean to you? The conventional wisdom
is that if you fight Mother Nature, she always wins. However,
this does not mean you surrender! It means that companies
and organizations need to be prepared for whatever Mother
Nature can dish out. Remember Hurricane Sandy? Many
companies in the northeast were battered, but several not
only survived but also continued operations. How? Planning,
preparation, and execution.
09
The rise in malicious cyber attacks will
continue.
The McAfee® Labs Threats Report, Third Quarter 2013,
states that it has seen several familiar trends but reports a
few new ones:
• Steady growth in mobile and overall malware
• A sharp upturn in worldwide spam
• The shutdown of the online market Silk Road, which sold
drugs and other illegal products
• The emergence of the “Deep Web”, an online supply for
cybercriminals
• An increase in the use of digital currencies by
cybercriminals to maintain anonymity for their illegal
activities
Here’s an interesting event. The Swansea MA Police
Department computer system was hacked; their files were
maliciously encrypted. The Police Dept. had to pay $750 in
an untraceable online currency to get the decryption key.
O
ur industry deals with unexpected events all the time. What with business
impact analyses, recovery time objectives, response plans, communications
protocols, cloud backup, etc etc etc, one might say that we are obsessed
with unexpected events. But these unexpected events do make our lives –
professional and personal – more exciting.
So, in order to make your year a little, ah . . . , less exciting, let’s look at a few possible
Business Continuity/Disaster Recovery trends for 2014.
There were three
times as many natural
disasters between
2000 to 2009 as
compared to the
amount between 1980
and 1989.

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In the third quarter of 2013 alone, McAfee reported its
count of mobile malware rose by 33 percent. New malware
of all types exceeded 20 million this period, pushing their
all-time tally to more than 172 million binaries. New rootkits,
which tunnel into systems and remain hidden, doubled in
number this quarter. AutoRun threats, often spread via USB
drives, remain numerous. Signed malware, which poses as
approved legitimate software, continues to set records,
increasing by almost 50 percent.
Consider this: The recent cyber attacks on Adobe, Target,
and Neiman-Marcus, exposing the credit-card information
of millions of customers.
And consider this: Former Vice President Dick Cheney
recentlydisclosedthatin2007hisheartdoctordisconnected
his heart defibrillator from the internet (actually disabled
the wireless feature) for fear that a malicious hacker could
shock the Vice President’s heart into cardiac arrest.
And also consider this: Fox News recently asked that as cars
become more like PCs on wheels, what’s to stop a hacker
from taking over yours? It turns out they can. Hackers have
shown they can slam a car’s brakes at freeway speeds, jerk
the steering wheel, and even shut down the engine – all from
their laptop computers. According to the Fox News report, all
cars and trucks contain anywhere from 20 to 70 computers.
They control everything from the brakes to acceleration to
the windows, and are connected to an internal network. A few
hackers have recently managed to find their way into these
intricate networks.
Whatdoesthismeantoyou? The impact of a cyber attack
is compounded by the fact that more and more corporate
assets and operations are online; thus an attack has a broad
impact. The meaning of this trend should be obvious. Your
organization must have a cyber attack prevention program
as well as a response and recovery strategy. And you need
to think outside the box your cell phone came in. Can you
survive an attack on your mobile communications assets?
That recovery strategy might be something as retro (and
simple) as land lines and call trees. Do you have these in
place? Have you properly tested them?
08
Some disruptions are becoming more
predictable.
With more and more massive amounts of technology and
data available, we are more adept at better predicting
weather patterns, natural disasters, system breakdowns, even
human threats. For example, according to National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration, “Forecasters at NOAA’s
Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are expecting G3
(strong) geomagnetic
storm conditions to
occur on Earth Jan. 9
and 10. . . Economies
around the world have
become increasingly
vulnerable to the ever-
changing nature of
the sun. Solar flares
can disrupt power
grids, interfere with
high-frequency airline and military communications, disrupt
Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, interrupt civilian
communications, and blanket the Earth’s upper atmosphere
with hazardous radiation.”
Whatdoesthismeantoyou? Business Continuity/Disaster
Recovery professionals need to have strategies and plans
that become more preventative than reactive. Recall the old
adage about an ounce of prevention being worth a pound of
cure, or in our case, a pound of response. Are you vulnerable
to loss of electricity? Get a backup generator. Will staffing
be a concern? Start a cross-training program, have available
Dick Cheney recently disclosed that in
2007 his heart doctor disconnected
his heart defibrillator from the internet
for fear that a malicious hacker could
shock the Vice President’s heart into
cardiac arrest.
Economies around
the world have
become increasingly
vulnerable to the
ever-changing nature
of the sun.

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contract staff, bring in staff from other offices, or do more
with less. Your business impact analysis should help identify
vulnerabilities and consequences.
The week of January 5, 2014 across most of the US, snow,
thunderstorms, and frigid temperatures were predicted.
Businesses and governments were able to take action days in
advance with full confidence that weather predictions were
accurate. This included, for example, all schools in Minnesota
being cancelled on Thursday January 2 for the following
Monday. Many businesses were able to plan accordingly
in advance. Some businesses implemented work-at-home
procedures; others changed work hours in advance of the
bad weather; some just closed for the duration.
So if a hurricane is predicted, you don’t have to wait until it hits
to begin implementing response plans. But once an unexpected
disruption hits, BC/DR efforts must move forward rapidly.
07
Disruptions should be considered the norm.
Business interruptions – whether acts of nature, man-made
or technical glitches – are no longer outlying anomalies, but
are becoming the norm. Consider the potential for business
disruption like bad weather – you don’t like it, but it’s part of
business life; be prepared to deal with it.
What does this mean to you? Organizations need to
embrace interruption as part of expected “day to day”
processes and plan accordingly. To continue with the bad
weather analogy, most days are relatively nice; but be
prepared for the occasional thunderstorm.
06
Cloud-to-cloud continuity will get serious with
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS).
According to Forrester Research, disaster recovery (DR) is a
leading driver for public cloud use, but mostly by enterprises
looking to improve the resiliency of mid-to low-end apps
and for smaller companies putting their entire recovery
strategy in the cloud. But in 2014, Forrester believes cloud-
based DR will go cloud-to-cloud. The first phase will unfurl in
the next year with cloud-to-cloud backups for mainstream
SaaS offerings. In the SaaS market, enterprises struggle to
restore data with steep recovery fees (or in some cases,
total lack of service) by their SaaS vendors.
What does this mean to you? Forrester reports that
a new market of backup solutions is rising to meet this
need with early solutions from companies. These offerings
automate the protection of critical data that is stored with
SaaS providers so organizations can recover this data if it is
accidentally, or maliciously, deleted.
05
The role of the Business Continuity/Disaster
Recovery professional is changing for the better.
In the earlier days of business continuity, there used to be
a joke: What’s the difference between a highly paid, highly
recognized BCP Manager and a unicorn? The answer: they
are both imaginary creatures!
With every disaster made public, the role of the BC/DR
practitioner is enhanced at enlightened organizations. More
and more, companies are realizing the need for a BC and
DR professionals on their staff.
According to Business Continuity Management’s Cheyene
Marling, “One of our studies has shown that since 2009,
respondents have indicated that IT/Disaster Recovery and
Business Continuity strategies have increasingly supported
organizational needs.” This, of course, helps justify BC
and DR efforts as well as attracts the attention of senior
management–all good things.
Business interruptions – whether
acts of nature, man-made or
technical glitches – are no longer
outlying anomalies, but are
becoming the norm.

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In her 2012 industry surveys, Ms. Marling also finds:
• Increased awareness seems to be evident at the chief
officer level as more respondents indicated a shift in
program sponsor from mid management/ management
to the chief officer level/ board committee.
• The chief level program sponsors are stepping up
their level of engagement with the business continuity
management program.
• Adding more full-time, permanent personnel dedicated
to the program and a decrease in downsizing of
personnel in the next year.
• A shift to an enterprise-wide resiliency focus with
increased executive support.
• Acknowledgement of increased standards that will more
than likely continue to evolve the profession in the future.
What does this mean to you? Life is good.
We are becoming recognized more and more, and we are
being taken seriously.
In addition to having an interesting, high-profile job that your
peers certainly must envy, you can rest assured that BC/
DR professionals for probably the first time have an actual
career path–at some companies, anyway. There are now
position listings for Vice President, Business Continuity. BC/
DR has even reached the C-Suite – Chief Resiliency Officer!
With consistent increase in cause and cases for disruption,
the industry is only growing and with that the need for BC/
DR professionals should keep growing as well.
04
Communications expectations are increasing:
The speed of information is faster than the
speed of light.
While not literally true, information can travel around the
world in seconds. And as Hamlet said, there’s the rub.
Today people are carrying several communications devices
and systems. How many of you have at least a cell phone,
iPad or equivalent, plus a laptop? Does your briefcase or
pocketbook look like the discount bin at Radio Shack?
A full disclosure moment: xMatters is a mass notification
services vendor and is sponsoring this paper Regardless,
I would offer this trend/observation even if this document
were sponsored by Dunkin Donuts.
What does this mean to you? First of all, understand the
fast pace of technological change. It took 52 years for the
basic telephone to reach 70% of US households. To reach
the same household penetration for the cell phone, it took
only 17 years. Apple launched the App Store in 2008 with
about 500 apps. Today, five years later, there are over one
million apps available on the App Store. Facebook went
from zero users to over 1.1 billion users – that’s Billion – in
only 9 years. You need to keep up.
On the one hand, this technology allows your employees,
customers, suppliers, etc., to communicate quickly and freely;
this is truly amazing. On the other hand, this technology raises
the expectation that your employees, customers, suppliers,
etc., will be contacted quickly when necessary–like in an
emergency. This is over and above your critical responders.
Communication plans need to factor in these expectations.
Consider this: On a fine Sunday evening last August, the
cable service in Fairfield Connecticut failed due to a power
loss. This occurred during a Yankees-Red Sox baseball game
on ESPN, the continuing saga of AMC’s Breaking Bad, and the
season finale of HBO’s True Blood. People were so distraught
that the local 911 emergency lines were overwhelmed with
calls from citizens trying to find out what was going on. The
Fairfield Police Department was not amused: the FPD used
its Facebook page to remind residents that missing a favorite
TV show does not necessitate a call to 911. It also pointed out
that “Misuse of the 911 system may result in an arrest.”
During the Boston Marathon bombings, people all over
the world were watching Twitter, Facebook, etc, expecting
On a fine Sunday evening last
August, the cable service in Fairfield
Connecticut failed due to a power
loss. Guess what happened?

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the latest information. After shutting down an entire city,
Boston Police announced the capture of Boston Marathon
terror suspects. This single tweet eliminated the tense
atmosphere in the city.
Today, people expect to be proactively communicated to
about ‘what is going on’ in a situation as minor as a cableTV
outage. Five years ago we would have shut the TV off and
worked on a puzzle. Now people are immediately checking
texts, phones, etc. expecting, nay demanding, to be informed.
What does this also mean to you? Fast initial
communications are more important today than ever. You
have to get in front of an event before it swallows you up.
Incredibly, some emergency Public Relations manuals are
still advising that companies have as much as 48 hours to
gather information, develop a message, and respond to an
event. The exact guidance of one such manual is “Assess
severity, length of issue and media life. If you believe this
is a very small ‘flash in the pan’ it may be best to not make
public statements for 24-48 hours and see how quickly the
issue goes away.” Realistically, it’s more like 24 minutes!
03
Social Media will continue to drive
BC/DR response.
Like it or not, social media is here to stay. The format, apps,
and technology may evolve, but it’s not going away anytime
soon. Used properly, social media are a powerful tool for
crisis leaders to notify and communicate before, during,
and after an event. However, because of its immediacy,
spontaneity, ease of use, and general lack of protocols,
the social media can also be a burden to crisis responders.
Incorrect information and rumors can intermingle with
facts; this requires social media response strategies.
What does this mean to you? Organizations must know
how to leverage social media and harness its power rather
than let it control your response.
Also–companies/agenciesneedpoliciesonwhatinformation
(non-emergency response) employees can give out to the
public, the media, and even their family friends. Employees
need to know and understand your communication policies
and protocols, especially during a disaster.
Make sure you have emergency communications policies
such as:
• “Statements to the public and news media concerning
an emergency at {Organization} are to be made only
with the knowledge and guidance of the Emergency
Communications Team.”
• “Information requests made to individual {Organization}
employees and contractors by the public, media, and
government officials must be referred to the Emergency
Communications Team.”
What about the social media? You should have a policy
such as:
• “Employees shall not use social media to discuss,
describe, or inform anyone about any aspect of an
emergency at {Organization}”
But wait!! Is this policy legal??
I am not a lawyer, but Julie Meadows-Keefe of the law firm
Grossman, Furlow Bayó, is. “It’s a thorny issue. That policy
could raise some First Amendment and other issues. If an
employee is trapped in a building with an active shooter
and is trying to communicate with friends and family about
whether they are alive or injured–a life or death issue –
the policy interferes with their ability to do that; I don’t
believe an organization will discipline an employee for that.
However, if an employee is tweeting about the event on his/
her personal account, the employee is violating company
policy but is within his/her First Amendment protections.”
What should an organization do? Ms. Meadows-Keefe
says, “I know this sounds lawyerly, but the organization policy
should be a ‘strong recommendation’ not to discuss the event
on social media; but if you do, make sure it is clear that the
message is identified as a personal opinion. This policy is not
Today, people expect to be
proactively communicated to about
‘what is going on’ in a situation as
minor as a cable TV outage.

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easy to implement or enforce; policy violation discipline would
probably be on a case-by-case basis. It’s frustrating; but the
bottom line is that organizations should train all employees
on the policy and assume employee common sense.”
02
Twitiots will continue
I thought I invented the word twitiot – a tweeting idiot.
However, a brief Internet search already found several
references and uses of the word. Oh well . . .
So here’s an easy prediction. Several people will become
famous – or infamous – by tweeting/blogging something
stupid.
Remember the alleged Public Relations expert who made
stupid statements about visiting South Africa? How many
politicians or movie stars have caused themselves crises by
being a twitiot?
Who can forget “Carlos Danger,” aka New York Congressman
Anthony Weiner? He became the center of a media firestorm
in 2011 when he briefly posted on Twitter a lewd self-portrait
for all of his constituents to see. After saying it was a prank,
he admitted it was intended as a direct message to a Seattle
woman as “a joke.” Now painfully aware of the power of
Twitter, Weiner no longer holds elected office.
Karine Vanasse was well known for playing the role of
stewardess Colette Valois in the US television series, Pan
Am. In December of the show’s first season, she sent out
the following tweet:
“Well, we received THE call, #PanAm is only coming back
for one more episode after Christmas. But up to the end,
we’ll give it our all!”
The problem? The series star broke the news of the show’s
impending cancellation before the network was ready
to announce it. Now Ms. Vanasse is not an idiot, but she
essentially released company confidential information
before management was ready. Could this happen to your
organization? As I stated previously, do you have policy
that covers social media?
What does this mean to you? Everyone with an internet
connection/e-mail/twitter account – essentially all your
employees – must understand that by pressing the “Send”
button, you are sending your “personal” message to
potentially over 2.4 Billion people. That’s over one third of
the world’s population, bunkie, and there are no take-backs.
Again, what is your social media policy during an emergency?
01
Be prepared for the Matrix, the Robot Uprising,
or Skynet!
Yes, each of these science fiction threats centers on “The
Machines” taking over. But when The Machines do take over,
that means YOUR machines too! Forrester’s Rachel Dines
and I advise those firms that have not yet updated their BIA’s
or continuity plans to include these science fiction risks, here
are three tips that can get you started on the right path:
A. Store data in offline forms and/or on local devices.
Whether you choose tapes (outside of a Machine-
accessible tape library), punch cards, paper, or
optical media, you must keep current copies of
critical data in a format that can’t be sabotaged by
the Matrix, robots, or Skynet.
B. Keep continuity plans on paper and/or on local
devices. You’ll want to have your plans for specifically
dealing with The Machines’ uprising in a format that
is hard for them to assimilate so they can’t devise
countermeasures to your plans. Additionally, you
should store key elements of your BC and DR plans
(e.g., contact lists, notification instructions, pre-
scripted employee/media statements, basic response
strategies, etc) on paper, on local mobile devices that
would not be impacted, and/or in a separate cloud.
These technologies should be able to provide the
required information without a network connection.
C. Have emergency shutdown protocols for your data
center. To prevent The Machines from taking over
your data center and using it for their own nefarious
purposes, you need a data center emergency
disconnect and emergency shutdown plan.

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DR. STEVEN B. GOLDMANis an internationally
recognized expert and consultant in Business
Continuity,CrisisManagement,DisasterRecovery,
and Crisis Communications. He has over 30
years experience in the various aspects of these
disciplines, including program management, plan
development, training, exercises, and response
strategies. His background is comprehensive yet unique in that
he has been a professional engineer, corporate spokesperson,
manager of media relations, business continuity planner, crisis
responder, consultant, and a Fortune 500 Company’s Global
Business Continuity Program Manager. Dr. Goldman is a co-
founder and Lecturer at MIT’s “Crisis Management Business
Continuity” Professional Education summer course.
CONTACT INFOMATION:
Dr. Steve Goldman
Web site: www. SteveGoldmanAssociates.com
E-mail: Steve@SteveGoldmanAssociates.com
The MIT BCP Course: http://shortprograms.mit.edu/cm
About the Author
What does this mean to you? Interestingly, these three
strategies can and should be applied to more mundane–
and more likely–disasters such as loss of power to your data
center, evacuation of the data center, and loss of access to
the building containing the data center. For example, if you
have a building evacuation, can you quickly and orderly
shutdown (and transfer) your data center? How do you
access plans and data that are stored online?
Something else to consider: When I run loss-of-power BC
or DR drills for my clients, several responders say that when
power is lost, the response strategy is simple: employees
will work from home and they can VPN in to the network.
However, some VPN’s are structured such that employees
at home or in other offices have to remotely log onto their
desktops to access the company network.
Imagine their surprise when home responders realize
that even with a time-limited UPS–or when The Machines
take over – power will be lost to the desktops! How will
the workers at home be able to access the network? The
answer is: they won’t! Thus this alleged business-saving
work-at-home strategy will not work.
As a results of these exercises, my clients preventatively
fixed the problem. You should too.
BONUS TREND: Your company/agency/organization
will be impacted by a disaster in 2014.
This is a no brainer. You–yes, you – will be either directly
impacted (á la Hurricane Sandy) or indirectly (how many
retailers had to check their systems following the recent
Target data breach problems?). Also to consider: a crisis
that affects your neighbor or your industry will also most
likely affect you.
What does this mean to you? So–are you prepared for an
event that directly affects your organization? You know–
management support, BIA, plans, procedures, staffing,
equipment, facilities, training, drills, exercises, lessons
learned, etc? In addition to being prepared for an event
that directly affects you, are you prepared for the collateral
damage from someone else’s crisis? You most likely will
not want to comment on someone else’s crisis. However,
you will probably want to raise awareness in your own
organization and perhaps be prepared to take inquiries
from clients, suppliers, government agencies, the media,
social media etc. Can you do this quickly and reliably? Is
management aware of this?
To wrap up, I note that predicting trends for an upcoming
year is always a risk.
Last year at this time no one could have predicted for 2013
the Boston Marathon tragedy or the Boston Red Sox World
Series victory. But in our business, the one thing we can
expect is the unexpected, requiring us to be prepared. No
fortune cookie need tell us this; it’s what we do.

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TOP 10 TRENDS
References Guide
INFORMATION SOURCE
10
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1109877?query=featured_home
http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/2014_01_07_press_release.aspx
09
http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2013.pdf
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/11/18/swansea-police-pay-ransom-after-computer-system-was-hacked/
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/56b4382c-5ea7-11e3-8621-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2q6R7apxd
http://blogs.adobe.com/conversations/2013/10/important-customer-security-announcement.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/target-says-70-million-customers-were-hit-by-dec-data-breach-more-than-first-
reported/2014/01/10/0ada1026-79fe-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57617075-83/credit-card-hackers-hit-neiman-marcus/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dick-cheneys-heart/2/
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/04/hackers-find-weaknesses-in-car-computer-systems/
08
http://www.noaa.gov/features/01_economic/spaceweather_3.html
http://www.npr.org/2012/10/31/164046039/high-def-storm-models-yielded-accurate-predictions
07 None
06
Rachel Dines, Forrester Research, for her contribution to http://blogs.forrester.com/james_staten/13-12-04-cloud_computing_
predictions_for_2014_cloud_joins_the_formal_it_portfolio
05
“Contingency Management Trends; What are the most “successful” programs doing right?” presentation by Cheyene Marling,
October 9, 2013
Trending in Business Continuity – An Assessment of Data Collected Between 2009 – 2011; Prepared by BC Management, Inc.
– June 2012
04
http://visualizingeconomics.com/2008/02/18/adoption-of-new-technology-since-1900
Boston MA Globe, January 8, 2014: “Apple says $10b spent in app store”, Associated Press story
Facebook Reports First Quarter 2013 Results – Facebook. Investor.fb.com (May 1, 2013). Retrieved on July 21, 2013
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2396909/Police-inundated-calls-cable-outage-Breaking-Bad-began.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markfidelman/2013/12/14/twitter-these-are-the-most-popular-tweets-of-2013/
http://www.mvma.org/MediaResources/3-Crisis%20Communications.pdf
03 Julie Meadows-Keefe of the law firm Grossman, Furlow Bayó; personal conversations, January 9, 2014
02
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2013/12/23/justine-sacco-and-the-self-inflicted-perils-of-twitter/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2527330/Blonde-female-PR-executive-tweets-Going-Africa-Hope-I-dont-AIDS-Just-kidding-
Im-white-causes-international-outrage-likely-fired.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/anthony-weiner-resigns-scandal_n_878161.html
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/pan-am-karine-vanasse-canceled-twitter-bridget-279433
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#4-anthony-weiner
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#6-karine-vanasse
01 Another tip of the hat to Rachel Dines: http://blogs.forrester.com/rachel_dines/13-04-01-continuity_planning_for_the_robot_uprising
TREND