Tech innovation s4_push_pull

Technology and Innovation
Management:
S4
Technological Process
Raj C Thiagarajan, PhD
To
SIBM SIII MBA Students

ATOA Scientific Technologies
Engineering Simulation For Innovation

Process of Technological Change
• Technology Push

• Market Pull

• Technology Trend Forecasting

• Dynamics of Technological Innovation

• Dynamics of Market Diffusion

ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 2

Technology Push


Technology Push
• Technology driven product development

• Technologies are developed first and then clients

• The technology competency of firm leveraged for market
exploitation.

• Solution in search of a problem

• Risk: Not finding the market, Large Capital


Synthetic Dye:1856
• 1853: Willam Perkin
• Technology state: Atomic Theory, Elements
• Hypothesis of Quinine for malaria treatment
• Discovered : Aniline from coal tar +
potassium dichromate = Synthetic purple
dye
• At that time mostly natural dye was used.
The textile industry was slow to adpat.
• The penetration of synthetic dye marked
the beginning of the synthetic dye industry,
which was the first modern chemical
industry.
• Structural Color…

Technology push Examples
• Synthetic dye
• Penicillin
• Nylon
• Teflon
• Post-it
• Magnetic Tapes
• Walkman
• Botox
• IPad


Market Pull


Market Pull
• Market Research Driven product development

• Market potential is sought first before technology
development.

• Client requirements are captured first and then product

• Problem in need of a Solution

• Risk: loosing out on a downturn, Competition


Market Pull: Refrigeration
• Preservation of food was one of the first
problem
• Traditional: drying, salting, acid pickling…
• Lower the temperature to slow the bacteria
growth
• 1748 Vapor compression refrigerator, diethyl
ether
• Need: Safe non toxic nonflammable Refrigerant
• 1930 Thomas Midgley Jr invented Freon
• Dominated the Refrigeration industry
• Now non CFC, Superinsulation


Market Pull
• Freon
• Vulcanized rubber
• Celluloid
• Aspirin
• Incandescent lamp
• Chlorination of water
• Kevlar
• Automobile
• Ecommerce
• Itunes


Push vs Pull
Find Market
Pull:
• Market pull Synthetic Dye, 1856

High
Penicillin, 1928
• What is needed? Teflon, 1978
• Practicality Post-It, 1978

Find Technology
Technology Push
• Looking for Technology
Vulcanized Rubber
1839
Push Freon, 1928
• Technology push Sulfa Drug, 1930
Taxol, 1964
• What is possible Kevlar, 1970
• Curiosity
Low

• Looking for market Low Market Pull High


Successful management
• Successful value creation

• Managing invention for the
market successes
• Market driven Technology
development

• Technology management is
to develop the most efficient
design solution to fulfill a
market need


Step by Step Process
Cus Input from
Input Customer Tech
from Requirement's Assessment
Market Research

Tech
Market Competency
Need

• Push pull Need and
Competency
management
correlation
process

Prioritization of
market need and
Technology
capability

Product Development and
commercialization

Technology Evolution
• Penetration of
Technological
devices into
American
Consumers

• Pattern
• Rate


• Business vs Technology cycle
• Technological change
– Random and spontaneous process
– Systematic and planned process
• Dynamics of Technological change
– S-curve
– Technology Progression
– Levels of Technology development
– Technology change agents
– Evolutionary characteristics
– Uncertainty and insularity


• Stable performance Maturity
Decline
Characteristics
Slow
Growth

Characteristics
• S-curve of evolution
Rapid
Growth

• 4 stages
Emergence

• Product Evolution
– Exploration or discovery or Time
invention or concept Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

– Development stage
– Commercialization
– Monitor and control


Technology Progression
Tech2
• Learning or Technical Limit
adaptation process
Tech1

Characteristics
• Limited by
Technology or
market.

• Obsolete
• Insularity Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
• Progression


Fields of Innovation
Technological innovation
Product
• Product Innovation

• Process

Non Technological innovation Process Strategic
Organizati
onal
Innovation Innovation
• Organizational Innovation

• Market
• Strategic
Market
Innovation

18

ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management

Type of innovation outputs

Orgn. Knowledge Requirement
• Incremental
– Minor change
Revolutionary
– Aligned Evolutionary

• Modular Modular

– Significant change
Incremental
• Evolutionary
– Novel change
Technological Change
• Revolutionary
– Breakthrough change
– New to the Orgn.


Technology Diffusion
• Diffusion of technology is the process by which
technology is communicated among and adopted by
the members of a social system.

• Elements
– Technology, innovation, product
– Propagation Channel
– Time
– Social System


Dynamics of diffusion
• S-curve of Diffusion Saturated
Adoption
Cumulative
Adoption

• 4 stages

No of Customer
Slow
Adoption Declining
Market
Accelerated

• Mechanism of Adoption

diffusion
Few Early
• Technology Adaption
Frequency
of Adoption
substitution
Time
• Tipping point Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4


Social System: Adaptors
INNOVATORS:
• venturesome and educated, take risks,
They appreciate technology
EARLY ADOPTERS
• Social leaders, popular and educated.
Visionary new technology adopters
Late
EARLY MAJORITY

%of Customer
Early majority
majority (34%)
• evolutionary changes, prime movers of (34%)
rapid growth. Early
Adopters Laggards
LATE MAJORITY (13.5%) (16%)
• Skeptical and traditional , price sensitive
and total solution.
Innovators
LAGGARDS (2.5%)
• Technology skeptics, maintain the status
quo.
Time


Five Stages of Adoption model
Awareness
1 Awareness
• Exposed but lack information •How
•Knowledge

Attitude
2 Attitude
• Seeks information and makes an opinion •Favorable
•Unfavorable

Decision
3 Decision
• Weighs the benefits or drawbacks •Adopt
• Critical stage: Decides to adopt or reject •Reject

4 Implementation
Implementation •Put to use
• Deployment •Purchase

• Evaluates the usefulness
5 Confirm
Confirm •Reinforcement
• Final decision to continue to use or reject. •Rejection


Adoption model
1 Awareness 2 Attitude 3 Decision 4 Implementation 5.Confirm
•How •Favorable •Adopt •Put to use •Reinforcement
•Knowledge •Unfavorable •Reject •Purchase •Rejection

• Technology
and market
diffusion

Market penetration Technology development


Diffusion of innovation model

From: Rogers, E.M. (1995). Diffusion of innovations (4th edition). The Free Press. New York.

Innovation diffusion Trends
• Communication
Technologies
adoption in USA

Subscribers per 100 persons
60
• Mobile subscription 50 Urban subscribers
adoption in India 40
30
20
10 Rural subscribers
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Source: Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of India


Trend Prediction
• Future Forecasting

• Short term Historical Forecasting Growth
Data Model Prediction

• Long-term Historical Forecasting Growth
Data Model Prediction

Future data
Correlation


Predictive models
• The Technology
evolution and
innovation diffusion
follows a S-curve trend.

• Predictive Models: Bass,
Compertz, Fisher –Pry…

where
• General form f(e –g(t)) F(t) is the cumulative fraction of adopters
f(t) is the rate of diffusion at time t
p is the innovation factor
q is the imitation factor


Push Pull + S Curve
• Market
driven Barrier
Technology Market

• Industrial
Research
Driven Barrier
Technology Market

• Basic
Research Overcome the Technology and
driven market roadblocks for
Barrier breakthroughs
Technology Market


Tech innovation s4_push_pull

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