The document summarizes and critiques the findings of the 2002 Puddester Commission Report on establishing slot machines in Maryland. It notes that the revenue estimates in the current proposal are much higher than what the Puddester Commission projected, even though the proposed locations are weaker and competition has increased. It argues the math does not add up and the inflated estimates are being driven by politics rather than credible business analysis.

1. A Review: The Puddester Commission Report Math problems at “For Maryland, For Our Future.”

2. 2 + 2 = 7 ??

3. The Puddester Commission In the 2002 General Assembly session, a measure was passed “establishing a Commission on Maryland's Fiscal Structure to review, evaluate, and make recommendations regarding the State budget process, Spending Affordability process, Capital Debt Affordability process, and the State tax structure; requiring the Commission to make recommendations on methods to address funding needs for education, transportation, and health care and inefficiencies in and improvements to State services and operations; requiring a report by December 15, 2002; making the Act an emergency measure; etc.” The Commission on Maryland’s Fiscal Structure looked at many aspects of Maryland’s fiscal outlook, including the prospects for slots revenues. Fred Puddester was named Chairman of an all-star team of Commissioners.

4. Commission on Maryland’s Fiscal Structure 2002 Membership Roster Frederick W. Puddester, Chairman Mr. Peter V. Berns Ms. Sabrina W. Bush Ms. Barbara M. Coit Delegate Jean B. Cryor Senator Ulysses Currie Mr. William K. Hellmann Delegate Sheila E. Hixson Delegate Mary-Dulany James Mr. Laurence Levitan Senator Thomas M. Middleton Senator Donald F. Munson Senator Robert R. Neall Delegate Howard P. Rawlings Comptroller William D. Schaefer Mr. Robert L. Swann Ms. Barrie P. Tilghman

11. Should slots pass, the proponents argue that it will become the second largest component of state revenues within five years. And yet they have not offered a specific business plan that can credibly describe how it works. The revenue estimates that were set forth in the Puddester Commission Report of 2002 have been set aside in favor of a set of numbers that have been wildly inflated and fly in the face of logic or common sense. It has been observed that in Annapolis, the slot machine revenue estimates are a function of politics. Rather than defining a business plan with revenues and expenses, the numbers are based on the size of the problem. If more money is needed, or another politically popular spending need appears, the numbers simply are expanded until the problem is “solved.” These irresponsible actions create enormous risks for our budget and those who hold our bonds. Not surprisingly Moody’s recently warned Maryland bond investors that these revenues are “overly optimistic.”