achieving sustainable development

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IPCC
Achieving sustainable
development
R.K. Pachauri
Chairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
ECOSOC
Keynote Address on the theme “achieving
sustainable development”
New York, 30 June 2008

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IPCC
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change

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IPCC
The work of the IPCC is guided by the mandate
given to it by its parent organisations: the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and
transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-
economic information relevant to understanding the
scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts
and options for adaptation and mitigation

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IPCC
Writing and review process
of the IPCC assessment reports
1. Experts review the first draft of the report
2. Governments and experts review the second
draft of the report and the draft Summary for
Policymakers
3. Governments review word-by-word the revised
draft Summary for Policymakers

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IPCC
+2500 scientific expert reviewers
800 contributing authors
450 lead authors
+130 countries
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(2007)

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IPCC
Economic and social
aspects of climate change

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IPCC
Ranges for estimated aggregate costs
of climate change impacts
Variation between studies are explained by uncertainties in
climate sensitivity, discount rates, valuation of impacts, etc.
Aggregate estimates mask significant differences in impacts
across sectors and regions
 US$-10 to US$+350 per ton of carbon
 1.5 to 20% of GDP for doubling of CO2 concentration
 Real social cost of carbon will rise by 2 to 4% per year
Aggregate estimates are confronted to the difficulty to
monetise human, social, cultural & environmental impacts

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IPCC
Examples of climate change impacts
These expressions of risk are determined
fundamentally by location in time and space
1.1 to 3.2 billion people will experience
increased water scarcity by 2080
20-30% of species could be at risk of
extinction if increases in warming >1.5-2.5°C
Crop revenues could fall by 90%
by 2100 in Africa

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IPCC
Distribution of vulnerability
9 Severe vulnerability
7 Moderate
6 Moderate
5 Modest
4 Modest
3 Little
2 Little
No data
Year 2050
10 Extreme
9 Severe
8 Serious
7 Moderate
6 Moderate
5 Modest
No data
Year 2100

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IPCC
The urgent need
for mitigation

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IPCC
Mitigation targets
3.2 – 4.0
2.8 – 3.2
2.4 – 2.8
2.0 – 2.4
Global mean
temp. increase
(ºC)
2020 – 2060
590 – 710
2010 – 2030
535 – 590
2000 – 2020
490 – 535
2000 – 2015
445 – 490
Year CO2
needs to peak
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)

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IPCC
IPCC
 Mitigation actions can result co-benefits that may
offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs
Global average costs for stringent mitigation would induce a
slowing of global GDP growth of less than 0.12 points
Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems,
mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have
medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-
intensive technologies
Cost & timing of mitigation

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IPCC
All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by
deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are
currently available or expected to be commercialised
in coming decades
 This assumes appropriate and effective
incentives are in place for their development
and diffusion
60-80% of GHG reductions would come from
energy supply & use and industrial processes
Mitigation potential
IPCC

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IPCC
Investment needs in energy supply
Significantly de-carbonizing power production would require
incremental investments of up to $40 billion/year globally;
$30 billion/year in non-OECD countries1
This would be offset by reduced investment requirements
resulting from improved end-use energy efficiency
A global increased investment of US$2.4 trillion in
improved efficiency would be more than offset by
US$3 trillion savings in supply investments2
Sources: IPCC AR4 citing 1) WB, 2006 2) IEA, 2006

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IPCC
Perspectives on
sustainable development

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IPCC
Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of
sustainable development share common goals & determinants:
 Access to resources and equity
 Stocks of human and social capital
 Access to risk-sharing mechanisms
 Institutional capacity
Social and environmental issues are often left without effective
support when economic growth takes precedence
Appropriate policies are key factors for improved
sustainability & adaptive capacity
Development & adaptation

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IPCC
Development & mitigation
The dominant path to industrialisation has been
characterised by high concurrent GHG emissions and
pressure on natural resources
Committing to alternative development paths requires
major changes in a wide range of areas:
 Economic structure
 Geographical distribution of activities
 Consumption patterns
 Demography
IPCC

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IPCC
Towards a new system of governance
There is increasing recognition of a shift to a more inclusive
concept of governance, including:
Involvement of the relevant parties and policy
coherence are essential to achieve the desired
goals and ensure sustainability
 Linking and coherence between policies
addressing climate change, economic
development, health, employment, energy
security, and local environment
 The cooperation of various levels of
government, the private sector and civil society
IPCC

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IPCC
Lighting a Billion Lives
Campaign

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IPCC
1.6 billion people lack access to electricity
33% live in India
We commit to enable a billion lives to access
light from solar technologies

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IPCC
Solar lantern
Each solar lantern:
 Saves about 40-60 litres
of kerosene per year
 Mitigates 145 kg of CO2
emissions per year
Alternately:
 Saves about 182.5 kWhr
of electricity per year
 Mitigates 157 kg of CO2
emissions per year

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IPCC
Gobindarampur:
a village benefiting from the campaign
Solar lanterns are used in livelihood
activities such as betel leaf cultivation,
coaching centres, and shops
Bani and her friends run and
maintain the charging station
Solar lanterns have helped
families in their daily activities

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IPCC
Be the change you want to see in the world
Gandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard
of living as Britain. He replied:
It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity.
How many planets will a country like India require!