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Bias vs. Variance
Machine Learning
Franco Cedillo
Digital Product Manager, tech researcher
iOS Provider at Thought Recap SFO
past: PM Digital at La República, Ing. Informático PUCP
Diagnosing bias vs. variance
¿El problema es bias o variance?
Cross validation set
Learning Curves
Caso Redes Neuronales
Regularized Linear Regression
Error Cost:
What should we try next?
Get more training examples
Try smaller sets of features
Try getting additional features
Try adding polynomial features
Try decreasing ƛ
Try increasing ƛ
Split the data in two portions
Errors
Bias y Variance de acuerdo al grado del polinomio
Bias y variance de acuerdo al parámetro de
regularización ƛ
Objetivo
How to systematically improve our learning algorithm?
When our algorithm is doing poorly?
How to debug our learning algorithm?
Learning Curves
High Bias
High Variance
Actions
Action Effect
Get more training examples Fixes high variance
Try smaller sets of features Fixes high variance
Try getting additional features Fixes high bias
Try adding polynomial features Fixes high bias
Try decreasing ƛ Fixes high bias
Try increasing ƛ Fixes high variance
Ejemplos en MATLAB
Recursos Extra
Anotaciones de la lección
http://www.holehouse.org/mlclass/10_Advice_for_applying_machine_learning.html
Lección de la semana 6 en ML at Coursera
Andrew Ng
https://www.coursera.org/learn/machine-learning/home/week/6
Diapositivas de Apoyo
Training Set / c.v. Set / Test Set
60% / 30% / 30%
Hich bias
High Variance

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Bias vs Variance

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Para una exposición clara vamos a tomar el caso de la Regresión Lineal
  2. x1, x2, x3, x4, ... (x1)^2, (x2)^2, x1.x2, ...
  3. Contexto: Es un trabajo, estudio, tesis Fecha límite
  4. Con más complejidad la el aprendizaje sobre la data de entrenamiento se vuelve más precisa. Así también se llega a acertar para el set de test, sin embargo con mayor complejidad se va perdiendo ese acierto.
  5. Algunos resultados están mal Alguien del equipo, un consultor, tal vez por parte del cliente obtiene gráficas que muestran un error grande Alguien ve el código e intuye un error No va a hacer nuestra tarea de implementar bien el algoritmo