2. CAMERON
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Thinking about local growth
• US growing we should grow…
• Wilmington:
Strong in L&H
Weak in manufacturing
Wont grow the same as US…
• But people moving to town…
Decompose growth to identify patterns
Roughly:
• Local = National + Industry diff. + Diff. Regional Rate
3. CAMERON
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Shift and Share Analysis
• Divides growth into three components
National growth component – growth at national
rate
If region grows at national rate, maintains its “share”
Mix component – growth difference owing to
differences in initial employment mix
Competitive component – differences due to
local environment, i.e. permitting,
infrastructure, etc.
Industry “shifting” to new region
6. CAMERON
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Data fairly available
But:
• Local industry may differ from national
even for a specific sector
Maybe the national level isn’t right benchmark
• Difficult to select appropriate industry
level
All manufacturing or a specific plant…
i.e. all food processing or only smoked fish
If one plant is industry local = national
7. CAMERON
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Data fairly available
But:
• Competitive component can change quickly
• Past performance may not match future
Difficult to identify cause (regulations, infrastructure,
employee at firm, etc.)