The 4 Keys to
Demand Planning
in 2023 and Beyond
Eva Dawkins
Thursday, March 30th, 2023
9:30am PDT, 12:30pm EDT, 5:30pm BST
Tara Dwyer
Webinar Coordinator,
Supply Chain Brief
featuring Eva Dawkins
Senior Consultant, Supply Chain
Moderated by

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Eva Dawkins
Senior Consultant, Supply Chain
The 4 Keys to Demand Planning
in 2023 and Beyond

• Let’s Talk About Demand
• Types
• Components
• The Good Ol’ Days
• See What Had Happened Was….
• Little Fires Everywhere – The “New Normal”
• Tech is The Word …Is The Word
• But Wait, There’s More!
• Begin At The Beginning
• Keys To Demand Planning Success
• Cleansing
• Capturing
• Collaboration
• Communication
• Consistency
• Advice For The Graduate
• Conclusion
• Q&A
What Will Be Covered

Commercial
Financial
Sales
&
Operations
Planning
Purpose
Owner
Bias
Collaboration& Process
Reality
Types of Demand

DEMAND
Historical
Sales
Volatility
Trend
Seasonality
Promotion/
Incentives
Product
Lifecycle
Components of Demand
•Forecast
• Expected
• Demonstrated
• Demonstrated by Like Item
•Prior Experience
•Market Intelligence
•Contractual Obligations

•Stable and consistent supply
•2-3 years of reliable history
•Low-cost, lean supply strategy
•Siloed planning processes
•Few(er) disruptions
•Excel-based demand forecasting
The Good Ol’ Days

Demand planning is only getting more challenging
85% of a company’s performance depends on external factors
Global disruptions 2020 & beyond + Unpredictable volatility
• COVID-19
• Australian wildfires
• Chip shortages
• Suez Canal blocked
• War in Ukraine
• Delays at ports
• Fluctuating fuel prices
• Labor shortages
• Fluctuating exchange rates
Network
complexity
Customer
expectations
Competition
Business
model
evolution
Sustainable
operational
goals
= The “new normal”
https://logisticsviewpoints.com/2023/03/09/supply-chain-challenges-cpg/
See What Had Happened Was….

• Significant demand shifts
• Elasticity schmasticity
• Increasing complexity
Little Fires Everywhere

11
Resilient and Responsive!
• No slack in the supply chain
• Resources nearly fully to
over-utilized
• Costs maintained as low as
possible
• All resources (equipment,
labor, transportation,
facilities, etc.) closely
matched to the Annual Plan
Tech Is The Word
• Time-sensitive production
planning and direct
scheduling
• Inability to respond quickly
to last-minute changes and
unexpected disruptions
with understanding of
financial impacts
Lean and Mean…

…Is The Word
Taking the pulse of shifting supply chains, August 2022
• 74% of supply chain leaders said investment in digital services around demand planning is a top priority 1
• More than 90% of supply chain leaders reported investments in digital supply chain technologies last year 1
Top Supply Chain Challenges for CPG companies in 2023, March, 2023
• Companies with advanced supplier-collaboration systems outperform their competitors 2
Supply Chain Technology, April 2022
• In a Gartner survey, 61% of respondents said technology is a source of competitive advantage. 3
• By 2026, more than 75% of commercial supply chain management application vendors will deliver embedded advanced
analytics (AA), artificial intelligence (AI) and data science 3
How much is technology transforming supply chains? 2023
• When asked about the levels of investment in the next two years, artificial intelligence and machine learning are seeing the
most spending, with 22% of executives saying their companies plan to invest at least $5 million in those technologies 4
• 83% of executives say their supply chain technology investments haven’t fully delivered expected results 4
1. https://www.supplychainbrain.com/blogs/1-think-tank/post/36597-supply-chain-lessons-to-bring-into-2023
2. https://logisticsviewpoints.com/2023/03/09/supply-chain-challenges-cpg/
3. https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/gartner-predicts-the-future-of-supply-chain-technology
4. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/business-transformation/digital-supply-chain-survey.html

People Process Technology
But Wait, There’s More!

Begin At The Beginning
DEMAND
Procurement
/ Production
Distribution
Delivery
ACTUAL
SALES
Raw Materials/Components
Full Goods

Cleansing Keys To
Demand
Planning
Success
Historical sales history is the basis for a statistical forecast. However, like any history actual
sales may contain history that you don’t want to repeat in a future forecast. Cleansing
involves scrubbing these anomalies or other non-repeating events from the sales history so
that it is not a factor in future forecasts.
Events to cleanse from sales history:
• Promotional activity that won’t be repeated
• Incentive-driven demand
• Pandemic-driven demand
• think toilet paper in March 2020
• Supply disruptions
• Non-temporary pricing changes
• All of the above for direct competitors
• Holidays that change fiscal weeks (shift rather than
scrub)
• Easter
• Thanksgiving

Often, there is some data that should be taken into
account when crafting a forecast that isn’t automatically
captured in the same system where the forecast is
managed.
• Missed sales/shipments (out of stocks) of ongoing items
due to supply disruptions and delays
• Historical service levels tell a story
• Assumptions upon which the forecast is based
• Know what the numbers mean
• Review assumptions for accuracy to create a virtuous
circle that builds organizational acumen at
developing and using assumptions to drive
achievable goals
Capturing Keys To
Demand
Planning
Success

Demand Planning, in particular
development of a Consensus Demand
Plan as part of Sales and Operations
Planning, cannot be achieved without
cross-functional collaboration among:
• Finance
• Commercial
• Sales
• Demand Planning
• Operations
• Supply Planning
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
Collaboration Keys To
Demand
Planning
Success
Merriam-Webster defines collaboration: to work jointly with others or together
especially in an intellectual endeavor. In the context of business, the “intellectual
endeavor” is to devise a plan to increase profitability by achieving all of its
associated financial and operational goals. Collaboration can occur within and
across all levels and functions within an organization.

A formal Communication Plan around Demand Planning is necessary to
ensure all of the right people are involved in the process providing all of the
necessary and best, most up-to-date information. Communication should
be intentional and not left to solely organic interactions. Communicating
crucial information should not be left to the whim of an individual team
member. Communication includes ALL forms
of communication – email, reports, meetings,
etc.
Healthy processes ensure communication
occurs, down, out and up, openly and
frequently. Avoiding the blame game also
keeps the lines of communication flowing
freely.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
Communication Keys To
Demand
Planning
Success

Consistency Keys To
Demand
Planning
Success
Consistency in this context means that processes always act or behave in the same way. It
means that regardless of who is performing a task in the process the results or output is
similar in quality. One way to achieve this is to document best practices and process
guidelines for Demand Planning so that how each task is completed is the same each time
regardless of which planner is performing it.
Another way to create consistency in Demand
Planning is to ensure the meetings, such as
Portfolio Product Management and Sales and
Operations Planning meetings, that support
Demand Planning are held consistently. It’s
important to stay the course as new Demand
Planning processes evolve and adjust to the
“new normal.”
“Don’t let great be the enemy of good.”

Don’t
Get
Stuck
Short-Term
Scenario
Planning
Mid-Term
S&OP Long-Term
Advice For The Graduate
DEMAND SUPPLY
• If you spend all your time firefighting
you will spend all your time firefighting
• Being right is NOT the sole purpose of
planning
• Mid- and long-term planning is a muscle
that will get stronger the more you use it
• Scenario planning seems like a waste of
time until reality deviates from plan
• Sales and Operations Planning is a like a
marriage; it requires ongoing
commitment and work

Alignment
Addresses
Imbalance
Conclusion

Q&A
TARA DWYER
/in/dwyertara/
Webinar Coordinator, Supply Chain Brief
supplychainbrief.com
EVA DAWKINS
/in/eva-dawkins-mba-b92905a/
www.scmconnections.com
Senior Consultant, Supply Chain