Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future. In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios; 1. Idea ontology, 2. The origin of creative thinking, 3. Idea nurturing in organizations, 4. Shaping the future time, 5. Scenario planning, 6. Ideas social network (global brain). This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable. Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.

1. Origin Ontology of Future
Scenario's Idea
Origin Ontology of Future
Scenario's Idea
Ahmad Mahdeyan
2016
Ph.D. of Futures Studies (Strategic Foresight and Scenarios)
Tehran, IRAN
+98 912 343 7916
mahdeyan@iraneservice.com
https://linkedin.com/in/ahmadeyan

2. PrefacePreface
• This abstract previously has been accepted
for presentation by SCENARIO 2015
Conference (Improving Scenario
Methodology: Theory and Practice, 14–15
December 2015, Warwick Business School,
Coventry, UK)
• But due to not attending, after some edition
also the full paper accepted to present at
India (International Conference on
Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global
Scenario, 22-24 February 2016)

3. Road MapRoad Map

4. 1. Introduction1. Introduction
These trends pose a fundamental question.
What is the problem?
The complexity of decision making and rapid changes associated
with globalization leads to stillborn and failure of many Future
Scenarios assumptions in organizations as well as in the area of
social changes that put the world on a great historical twist.
It seems before understanding the origin of the creative’s ideas of future
scenarios and laws governing the future time, we've gone into the
application of Scenarios to build better stories for future.

5. Scenarios situation in Futures Studies methods
(Popper, 2009, p. 13 & 15)
Scenarios situation in Futures Studies methods
(Popper, 2009, p. 13 & 15)

7. Main QuestionMain Question
• How we can improve the ability of Scenario
planning in order to make enough potential in
facing alternative future?
For this regard, we deeply investigated following
issues in order to demonstrate the fundamental
effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future
Scenarios;
1)1) Idea ontology,Idea ontology,
2)2) The origin of creative thinking,The origin of creative thinking,
3)3) Idea nurturing in organizations,Idea nurturing in organizations,
4)4) Shaping the future time,Shaping the future time,
5)5) Scenario planning,Scenario planning,
6)6) Ideas social network (global brain).Ideas social network (global brain).

8. 2. Methodology2. Methodology
• This paper is a fundamental research type that
makes theory for an applied science. Its analysis
approach has been based on intuition-rational
philosophy to explore new area of an
interdisciplinary science by descriptive manner.
• According to qualitative approach this study
because of its data references to valid resources
will be valid and due to experts continuous
supervisions will be reliable.

9. The process of converting data into information,
knowledge and wisdom (Mahdeyan, 2012)
The process of converting data into information,
knowledge and wisdom (Mahdeyan, 2012)

10. 3. literature Discussion
3.1. Idea Ontology
3. literature Discussion
3.1. Idea Ontology
• Ideas are conceptions in the mind, they are a
product of mental activity expressing “A
thought or suggestion as to a possible course
of action” (Concise Oxford English Dictionary,
2011, p. 707).

11. 3.2. The Origin of Creative Thinking3.2. The Origin of Creative Thinking
• Humans are innovative and good at creative
thinking due to the ability of our brains to
blend two or more ideas and create a new
idea. Blending is the pivotal feature of the
human mind and innovation will be a
necessary product of the blending mind
(Turner, 2015).

12. Left Brain vs. Right Brain (kaykas-wolff, 2012)Left Brain vs. Right Brain (kaykas-wolff, 2012)
The left hemisphere controls analytic thinking suchThe left hemisphere controls analytic thinking such
The right side is the creative, imaginative side where intuition,
imagination, pictorial thinking, and synthesis occur.
The right side is the creative, imaginative side where intuition,
imagination, pictorial thinking, and synthesis occur.

13. Where Good Ideas Come From? (Johnson, 2011)Where Good Ideas Come From? (Johnson, 2011)

14. 3.3. Idea Nurturing in Organizations3.3. Idea Nurturing in Organizations
• The burden of producing ideas is great. And
it’s better handled with the help of others
than trying to fly solo.
Keith Reinhardt, former chairman of advertising behemoth DDB
Worldwide, observed;
“I believe that great ideas are
individual acts of inspiration,
but that great advertising
programs result from a team
effort which builds upon an
original idea and expands it.”

15. Idea Maturity Funnel
(Lacontora & Mathews, 2009 )
Idea Maturity Funnel
(Lacontora & Mathews, 2009 )
Idea Phase Learning Phase Discovery Phase
• Contextual
• Qualitative
• Business
concept
• Range of performance
• Quasi-quantitative
• Risk & Opportunity
Identification
• Quantitative
• Value & Investment
• Mitigation
FILTERING VALIDATION
Ideas
Project
Management
Process

16. Creative problem-solving techniques by
individuals and groups
Creative problem-solving techniques by
individuals and groups
Individual Techniques to increaseIndividual Techniques to increase
Creative Thinking (Take, 2015)Creative Thinking (Take, 2015)
•Ask QuestionsAsk Questions
•Lateral ThinkingLateral Thinking
•ChecklistsChecklists
•StoryboardingStoryboarding
•NLPNLP
•DO IT!DO IT!
Group Creativity Techniques (Antoni,Group Creativity Techniques (Antoni,
Canal, Cardama, & Coderch, 2015)Canal, Cardama, & Coderch, 2015)
•Forced RelationshipForced Relationship
•Tree of Ideas or Mind MapsTree of Ideas or Mind Maps
•SWOTSWOT
•Key QuestionsKey Questions
•BrainstormingBrainstorming
•DelphiDelphi

17. 3.4. Shaping the Future Time3.4. Shaping the Future Time
Future
Worlds
Future
Worlds
Paradigms of
Vision
direction
Absolute Laws of the
eternal Time
Absolute Laws of the
eternal Time
Singularity or discontinuity of futureSingularity or discontinuity of future Trends of the pastTrends of the past (Mahdeyan, 2013)

18. 3.5. Scenario Planning3.5. Scenario Planning
• Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to
make better decisions in the present (Bentham, 2008).
• They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they
are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically
designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in
specific strategic issues (Schwartz & Ogilvy, 2004).
• Scenarios are “a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about
alternative future environments in which one’s decisions
might be played out” said Schwartz (1996) (Rhisiart, 2006).
• Scenario planning focuses on situations where managers
need to gain a better understanding of the external
environment and how different uncertainties interact
together (Kunc & O'Brien, 2015).

19. Why we use Scenarios?Why we use Scenarios?

20. scenario methodsscenario methods
• Scenario planning is far more than a simple set of
steps to follow, the evolution and theoretical
foundations of scenario planning, shows its
connections to learning theory, decision-making
theory, mental model theory and more. This
addresses the subtleties and complexities of
planning (Chermack T. J., 2011).
There is a wide variety of scenario methods
(Minkkinen, 2015).

21. The performance-based scenario 5 phase
system
(Chermack & Coons, 2012)
The performance-based scenario 5 phase
system
(Chermack & Coons, 2012)

22. How many Scenarios:
Four Is The Magic Number (Garland, 2015).
How many Scenarios:
Four Is The Magic Number (Garland, 2015).
Four scenarios European social platform in 2050 by two critical uncertainties
(Hicks, 2012)

23. 3.6. Ideas Social Network (Global Brain)3.6. Ideas Social Network (Global Brain)
• The Global Brain can be defined as the self-organizing network formed by
all people on this planet together with the information and
communication technologies that connect and support them. It
increasingly links its users into a single information processing system,
which functions like a nervous system for the planet Earth. The
intelligence of this system is collective and distributed. Such a distributed
intelligence may be able to tackle current and emerging global problems
that have eluded more traditional approaches (Elsevier, 2015).
As Nikola Tesla (1926) describing a cell phone back
'When wireless is perfectly applied the whole earth
will be converted into a huge brain, which in fact it is,
all things being particles of a real and rhythmic
whole"
(Boevink, 2015) (Kennedy, 1926).

24. Social MediaSocial Media
• In recent years discussions about social trends or
desirable and possible futures have increasingly been
taking place in the so-called social media.
• With access to this content new perspectives are
opened up for scenario methodology (Moehrle, 2015).
• Text mining delivers a fast overview on aspects
describing the scenario field to capture the topic and
derive influence areas and factors (Kayser, 2015).
• In future social media can be used for several
purposes; as well as supporting wider engagement in
the project itself, it can facilitate communication
between interested activists (Meadows & O’Brien,
2015).

25. 4. Conclusion
Conceptual Model of the Origin of Future Scenario's Idea
4. Conclusion
Conceptual Model of the Origin of Future Scenario's Idea
Group Perception via
Network Collaboration
Individual Structural
Perception by Effort
Cognitive Map of Brain based
on Past Experiences and Future
Visions
Copy
Principle
Categories
Blending by
CAUSALITY
New Idea Intuition
(Future Scenarios)
The power of act in the
present based on past
potential and future vision
GlobalBrain Personal Intelligence
Experiences from
Environment
New Futures
Genetic base of
innate ideas
Dreams outside the
physical nature
Enthusiasm to Solve
Present Problem
Innate Sense of
Perfection

26. Conceptual Model of the Origin of Future
Scenario's Idea
Conceptual Model of the Origin of Future
Scenario's Idea
Group Perception via
Network Collaboration
Individual Structural
Perception by Effort
Cognitive Map of Brain based
on Past Experiences and Future
Visions
Copy
Principle
Categories
Blending by
CAUSALITY
New Idea Intuition
(Future Scenarios)
The power of act in the
present based on past
potential and future vision
GlobalBrain Personal Intelligence
Experiences from
Environment
New Futures
Genetic base of
innate ideas
Dreams outside the
physical nature
Enthusiasm to Solve
Present Problem
Innate Sense of
Perfection

27. Future MapFuture Map
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea
• How Global Brain can benefit problem solving by gathering different
people collaboration on the specific issues?
• How Cognitive Science strategies can benefit scenario planning by
reshaping mental models?
• How we can make some developments in brain performance by
biotechnology, genome enrichment, food and exercises, etc. to benefit
next generation even present people?
• Future Scenarios of the World's Mega Trends that will affect human life in
different aspects.
• How Global Brain can benefit problem solving by gathering different
people collaboration on the specific issues?
• How Cognitive Science strategies can benefit scenario planning by
reshaping mental models?
• How we can make some developments in brain performance by
biotechnology, genome enrichment, food and exercises, etc. to benefit
next generation even present people?
• Future Scenarios of the World's Mega Trends that will affect human life in
different aspects.
Business Forecasting Model of Future Scenario's IdeaBusiness Forecasting Model of Future Scenario's Idea

28. Thank youThank you
Ahmad MahdeyanAhmad Mahdeyan
Futures Studies (Strategic Foresight & Scenarios), Foresight Scholar (PhD)Futures Studies (Strategic Foresight & Scenarios), Foresight Scholar (PhD)
Tehran, IRANTehran, IRAN
+98 912 343 7916+98 912 343 7916
am@iraneservice.comam@iraneservice.com
ahmad.ahmadeyan (Skype)ahmad.ahmadeyan (Skype)
https://linkedin.com/in/ahmadeyanhttps://linkedin.com/in/ahmadeyan