Standard horizon scanning results in a focused set of future events which we need to consider before making significant investment decisions. Each future event can be expressed as a weighted most likely impact value for our business case. An overall set can also be expressed as a single value, which changes as our information and opinions change.

1. The Future Scorecard
The future can be reduced to one number
Wilson Fyffe
President
The Futurist Institute
Singapore
March 2014
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2. The 5 most important messages
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
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ERM is now delegated from
the CEO
ERM is a rapidly expanding
topic
Rapid ERM education tools are
available online
The Enterprise Risk Profile
can be reduced to a single
value
ERM well done can be an asset
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3. ERM is now delegated from the CEO
1.
2.
3.
4.
3
Publicly listed companies in the
USA are required to declare risks
in their annual reports (“Form
10-k”)
Many major organizations have
risk management committees
The “Chief Risk Officer” role is
becoming more common
ERM is now appearing in the
responsibilities lists of many
operations executives
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4. ERM is a rapidly expanding topic
 The probability mathematics developed
in the 17th and 18th centuries by Pascal,
Fermat and the Bernoulli brothers,
James and Nicholas, led to the
formation of risk insurance
organizations such as Lloyds of London.
 Understanding the chances of success of
trading ships’ voyages allowed greater
investment in the shipping industry
 This has led to a very large community
of ERM professionals and a demand for
assistance from IT
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5. Rapid ERM education tools are available online
An online solution available
from Amplios Group:
 A database of thousands of future
events complete with source
references
 The probability of occurrence of
future events X their impact on our
business case gives us the relative
weighted outcomes.
 These can be assigned positive or
negative values
 The events can be color coded to
show our degree of control
<<< Negative | Positive >>>
We can communicate the overall sense
of risk with a bar chart like the above
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6. Rapid ERM education tools are available online . . .
The service
accommodates
> 1,000 topics X
> 500 locations X
>20 languages
Global issues
Country
issues
Local
issues
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7. Rapid ERM education tools are available online . . .
The graph gives
an overall sense of
risk for this
particular
investment
scenario. The
overall weighted
impact reduces
the scenario to a
single value. The
future events and
their values can
be changed
online, giving an
alternate
scenario.
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8. ERM well done can be an asset
 It gets all your stakeholders and
management on the same page
 Is an important ingredient in
talent management, in particular
attraction of new employees
 Shareholders, both private and
public, place a high value on the
organization’s performance here
Our Amplios ERM methodology was
featured recently by the Switzerland-based
futuristWoodyWade
www.11changes.com
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9. Thank you for your visit
To contact us, please
Visit our website:
Web:
www.amplios.net
Email us at:
ERM@amplios.net
Attention:
Wilson Fyffe
President
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