Climate change is real: we see its impacts every day, around the world. A melting Arctic, unprecedented droughts across the world, extreme examples of flooding, and uncontrollable wildfires are all examples of the changing climate. These present a greater challenge than just new and different weather patterns: it will challenge the world’s security architecture to prepare for and adapt to new security challenges, like disaster response, food security, and water availability.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATIONAL
SECURITY
Linking Science with National Security

2. In Brief:
•The climate influences people’s everyday lives, from what they eat to where they live.
•Changesever before and humans have played a major role in the change. is warming at a faster
rate than
in the climate are becoming more identifiable every year: the Earth
•Although there are political arguments questioning the science, they do not hold up under close
examination.
•Climate change will affect different regions in different ways.
•Environmental threats blurpeoples andnotion ofchange is proving that. states do not
automatically mean secure
traditional
climate
national security: secure
•Climate change, food security, water security and communicable diseases are examples of such
non-traditional threats that require non-traditional responses.
•The U.S. must be resilientandpotential security. variations in weather that will affect not only our
country but our economic
to
physical
large-scale
•Climate change is a riskother economic factors. it increases vulnerability in infrastructure,
agriculture, energy and
to global security because
Climate Security Report

3. The Facts about
Climate Change • Climate science has developed a clearer understanding
of how and why the Earth’s climate is changing.
• It is settled scientific fact that the earth is warming
• Over the past century, the average mean global
temperature has risen about 1.4˚F (0.8˚C)
• Temperatures are projected to rise at least another 2-
11˚F (1.1-6.4˚C) in the next century
• An increase of 1.4˚F over a century is a significant
change – and the projected increase of up to 11˚F over
the next century would dramatically alter the stable
climate in which human civilization developed..

4. Climate Change is caused by humans
Carbon Dioxide and
•
Climate Change Since the beginning of the industrial revolution,
carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the
atmosphere has risen 40%, due to man-made
emissions of fossil fuels.
• While it is true that CO2 levels have varied over
time, there is compelling evidence that the
current trends are both unprecedented and
man-made.
• Increases in global temperatures correspond
directly with the rise in CO2 concentrations.

5. The Science • The best way to test the scientific theory that the rise
in temperature is due to human activity is to look at
potential alternative explanations.
is Irrefutable
• There is no alternative explanation – solar activity, La
Nina, or other, that can persuasively explain the rise in
temperatures
• 97% of climate specialists and scientists agree with the
basic science that global temperatures have risen over
the past century and that human activity is a significant
factor in that change.
Although there are political arguments
questioning the science, they do not
hold up under close examination

6. Climate Change’s
Effects Vary • Global temperatures are rising but this does not mean
that every region is affected in the same way.
• Some regions of the world are experiencing extreme
heat and droughts while others may be experiencing
unseasonably cold weather.
• Temperature change is not the most severe aspect of
climate change. Instead, it is the effects that are most
dangerous:
– Ice melt in the Arctic
– Droughts in Sub Saharan Africa
– Severe weather in North America
– Sea Level rise in South Asia
– Seasonal Floods in Southeast Asia
• The science will never predict every event, but we
predict some eventualities.

7. Linking Climate
Change to Security • Climate change increases vulnerability of infrastructure,
agriculture, energy and other economic factors.
• Environmental threats blur the traditional notion of
national security.
• Insecure states face significant threats to their internal
stability and security.
• However, natural disasters can create instability within
a seemingly secure state.
• The multi-faceted nature of 21st Century security
threats requires a “fresh take on security,” which allows
the U.S. to be better prepared for new contingencies.

8. “An Accelerant
of Instability” • In developing countries, climate will present deep
threats to security and ultimately to global stability.
• Poor countries have less capacity to prepare for and
adapt to these changes and large-scale disruptions.
• Floods, droughts, storms, or wildfire are much more
likely to cause government instability, unrest, and even
armed conflict in least developed regions.
• In this age of great change, the U.S. should combine
traditional notions of security with collective security

9. While all nations are greatly affected by the effects of climate change, developed
nations have the resources to bounce back more quickly from large-scale disruptions;
developing countries will struggle much more deeply to adapt.
They have less capacity to prepare for and adapt to these changes and large-scale
disruption such as a flood or wildfire is more likely to cause government instability and
unrest. Risk-reduction and preparedness policies including adaptation and mitigation
(reducing greenhouse gas emissions) will increase resiliency. However, the traditional
tools of security may need to be deployed in response to large disruptions.
In an age of great change, combining the traditional notions of security with aspects of
collective security allows the U.S. and other countries at risk of the effects of climate
change to limit vulnerability and remain flexible for the wide range of contingencies
that lie ahead.
Security is not one-dimensional but multifaceted, and climate change must be
incorporated into the security dialogue in order to prepare for the multifarious threats
we face as a nation.
Find out more:
Climate Security Report
Created by Yong Wang
Adjunct Junior Fellow