The document discusses five critical nuclear security issues facing the second Obama administration: preventing a nuclear Iran, engagement with North Korea, missile defense cooperation with Russia, redefining the partnership with Pakistan, and maintaining the US nuclear deterrent. On each issue, the document provides background on the challenges and suggests policy priorities, emphasizing diplomacy and cooperation with allies to reduce threats and build confidence.
Critical Nuclear Choices For the Second Obama Administration
1. CRITICAL
NUCLEAR
CHOICES
FOR
THE
SECOND
OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION
Five
Key
Issues
the
United
States
Must
Face
in
Nuclear
Security
2. In
Brief:
• Nuclear
threats
did
not
end
with
the
Cold
War.
Over
the
next
four
years,
the
Obama
administra%on
will
face
cri%cal
choices
on
nuclear
security
challenges.
• The
policies
the
administra%on
pursues
on
Iran,
U.S.
nuclear
strategy,
and
other
issues
will
have
significant
consequences
for
U.S.
na%onal
security.
• PuHng
aside
par%san
rhetoric
and
working
with
both
sides
of
the
aisle
will
be
key
to
developing
policies
that
effec%vely
address
these
cri%cal
nuclear
threats.
Long-‐Term
Challenges
Remain
in
Five
Key
Areas:
• PrevenDng
a
Nuclear
Iran
• North
Korea
–
IsolaDon
or
Engagement?
• Missile
Defense
and
Russia
• Redefining
a
Partnership
with
Pakistan
• The
U.S.
Nuclear
Deterrent
Cri%cal
Nuclear
Choices:
Obama’s
Second
Term
3.
PrevenDng
a
The
State
of
Play:
Iran’s
Nuclear
Program
• U.S.
intelligence
assesses
that
Iran
has
not
yet
made
Nuclear
Iran
•
the
decision
to
pursue
a
nuclear
weapon.
However,
concerns
about
Iran’s
nuclear
program
remain,
par%cularly
over
Iran’s
con%nued
uranium
enrichment
and
past
nuclear
research
at
a
controversial
military
facility.
• Iran
s%ll
refuses
to
address
ongoing
internaDonal
concerns
about
its
past
and
current
nuclear
work.
SancDons
and
NegoDaDons
• SancDons
imposed
by
the
internaDonal
community
have
had
an
effect
on
Iran’s
economy.
• While
a
long-‐term
deal
has
proved
elusive,
experts
and
officials
agree
that
there
is
sDll
Dme
to
negoDate
an
agreement
on
Iran’s
nuclear
program,
perhaps
star%ng
with
interim
confidence-‐building
measures.
Ayatollah
• Another
round
of
talks
between
Iran
and
the
P5+1
is
Ali
Khamenei,
expected
soon.
Supreme
Leader
of
Iran
While
the
military
op;on
should
remain
on
the
table,
at
this
stage
the
diploma9c
route
should
be
pursued.
4. North
Korea’s
Nuclear
Program:
Engaging
North
Korea
A
NaDonal
Security
Challenge
• North
Korea
conducted
nuclear
tests
in
2006
and
2009
and
may
have
enough
fissile
material
for
nine
warheads,
although
North
Korea
likely
lacks
the
technology
to
deploy
a
warhead
on
a
missile.
• A
third
nuclear
test,
which
would
increase
North
Korea’s
certainty
in
its
nuclear
technology,
remains
a
possibility.
• The
North
Korean
nuclear
challenge
requires
a
carefully
calibrated
approach.
• The
U.S.
should
maintain
Northern
denuclearizaDon
as
the
ulDmate
goal
while
consistently
working
toward
accomplishing
more
modest
auxiliary
goals
such
as
regional
economic
coopera%on
and
academic
interac%on.
Modest
confidence
building
measures
are
necessary
to
establish
a
framework
for
engagement.
5. Missile
Defense
In
Search
of
a
Breakthrough
AND
Russia
• U.S.-‐Russia
rela%ons
have
taken
a
downward
turn,
preven%ng
progress
on
key
nuclear
security
issues.
• CooperaDon
on
missile
defense
could
be
the
key
to
breaking
through
the
U.S.-‐Russia
stalemate.
• The
U.S.
is
planning
to
deploy
missile
defense
systems
in
Europe
in
a
four
phases,
each
increasingly
capable.
• Phase
IV,
the
most
advanced,
is
of
par%cular
concern
to
Russia,
which
insists
that
the
U.S.
enter
into
a
legal
guarantees
that
the
missile
defense
shield
is
not
directed
at
Russia.
A
Standard
Missile
3
Block
IB
Interceptor
• The
U.S.
consistently
maintains
that
the
missile
defense
shield
is
directed
at
the
Iranian
and
North
Korean
missile
threats,
not
Russia.
• Legal
guarantees,
which
could
put
U.S.
na%onal
security
interests
at
risk,
are
not
acceptable
for
the
U.S.
But
a
poliDcal
agreement
may
be
possible.
A
poli?cal
agreement
for
U.S.-‐Russia
missile
defense
coopera?on
could
pave
the
way
for
coopera;on
on
other
An
SM-‐3
interceptor
launched
from
an
important
security
issues.
Aegis-‐class
ballis;c
missile
defense
ship
6. Pakistan’s
Nuclear
Program
Engaging
Pakistan
• One
of
the
fastest
growing
nuclear
arsenals,
Pakistan
is
es%mated
to
have
90
to
110
warheads:
• The
threat
from
unauthorized
use
of
a
nuclear
weapon
or
nuclear
prolifera%on
is
great
– Militants
have
successfully
a^acked
suspected
Pakistani
nuclear
facili%es
– Tensions
with
India
make
the
threat
of
nuclear
escala%on
unacceptable
Points
of
Emphasis
• Encourage
Pakistan
to
adopt
the
Addi%onal
Protocol
and
produce
a
formal
nuclear
strategy,
including
a
no-‐first-‐use
policy
toward
all
states
• Encourage
bilateral
trade
with
India
and
confidence
building
measures
U.S.
policy
must
be
explicit
enough
to
establish
clear
goals,
func?onal
enough
to
allocate
necessary
resources,
and
dynamic
enough
to
navigate
the
conflic?ng
regional
forces.
7. 21st
Century
Security
Challenges
U.S.
Nuclear
Strategy
• A_er
the
Cold
War,
the
U.S.
faces
very
different
security
challenges,
including
climate
change
and
•
cyberwar.
The
U.S.
nuclear
arsenal
of
over
5,000
warheads
is
excessive
and
ineffecDve
in
addressing
21st
century
security
threats.
An
Outdated,
Expensive
Nuclear
Strategy
• The
U.S.
is
on
track
to
spend
about
$640
billion
on
nuclear
weapons
and
related
programs
over
the
next
ten
years.
• Unnecessary
nuclear
programs
divert
resources
from
more
important
defense
capabiliDes.
• Elimina%ng
excess
nuclear
programs
will
save
billions
that
can
be
invested
in
necessary
defense
capabili%es.
The
U.S.
is
planning
to
spend
over
$10
billion
to
refurbish
the
B61
nuclear
bomb
(pictured).
About
200
B61s
are
deployed
in
Europe
today
–
more
than
20
years
aQer
the
end
of
the
Cold
War.
UpdaDng
our
nuclear
strategy
will
Credit:
Kelly
Michals,
Flickr
strengthen
U.S.
naDonal
security.
8. FURTHER
READING
From
the
American
Security
Project
CriDcal
Nuclear
Choices
for
the
Next
AdministraDon
October
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/RaPxhW
Significant
Iranian
SancDons
Since
1995
March
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/GUsGBk
Iran
Facts
and
Figures
March
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/zbVsmw
North
Korea’s
Nuclear
Program
August
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/Rpwuzx
U.S.
Missile
Defense
and
European
Security
June
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/Ll65MT
Why
the
U.S.
Cannot
Ignore
Pakistan
September
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/P3xEk2
A
New
Approach
to
Nuclear
Weapons
LtGen.
Dirk
Jameson,
ASP
Consensus
member
April
2012,
h^p://bit.ly/KlYspp
Other
Resources
www.americansecurityproject.org
Weighing
the
Benefits
and
Costs
of
Military
AcDon
Against
Iran
The
Iran
Project,
September
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/Qee0Vf
Made
by
Mary
Kaszynski
and
Mitchell
Freddura
What
Nuclear
Weapons
Cost
Us
(Working
Paper)
Ploughshares
Fund,
September
2012.
h^p://bit.ly/TqMtA7