1. BCI Horizon Scan 2016
Andrew Scott CBCI
Senior Communications Manager
Business Continuity Institute

2. About the BCI
• Membership
• 8,000 members
• Students -> Fellows
• 40% in the UK
• Partnership
• 120 organizations

3. About the BCI
• Training & certification
• 1,300 new business continuity
professionals are certified each
year

4. About the BCI
• Research

5. About the BCI
• Research

6. Why horizon scan?
• To assess the threats
• To address the impact
“The best-laid schemes o'
mice an' men gang aft
agley”

7. Black Swan Theory
1. Fooled by Randomness (2001)
2. The Black Swan: The Impact of the
Highly Improbable (2007)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
• The event is a surprise
• The event has a major impact
• In hindsight it could have been
predicted

8. About the BCI Horizon Scan 2016 Survey
568 74
organizations countries

9. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
3
5
7
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 5 threat:
Security incident

10. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
3
5
7
9
11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 4 threat:
Act of terror

11. 0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 3 threat:
IT/telecoms outage

12. 0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 2 threat:
Data breach

13. 0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 1 threat:
Cyber attack

14. What does this mean?
• Are cyber attacks the most
likely disruption?
• Will a cyber attack have the
biggest impact?
• The BCI Horizon Scan
Report sets the baseline.
• Every organization must
conduct their own horizon
scan.

15. Tracking threats
• Appears in the top 10 for
the first time since the
survey began
5
Availability of key
talents or skills
(14th to 9th)

16. Tracking threats
• Almost three-quarters of
organizations (74%) report
at least 1 disruption/year*
• 14% claim losses of at
least €1 million*
2
Supply chain disruption
(5th to 7th)
*BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2015

17. Tracking threats
5
Human illness
(8th to 13th)
• Ebola no longer the threat
it once was

18. Top 5 trends

19. Further analysis - location
• Europe mirrors global view
• Adverse weather top threat in Central/Latin America
• Interruption to utility supply top threat in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Political change a growing concern for Middle East & North
Africa, Central/Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

20. Further analysis - sector
• Supply chain disruption the top threat in the manufacturing
industry
• IT/telecoms outage the top threat in health and social care.
Emergence of a global pandemic the top trend to watch out
for
• New regulations and increased regulatory scrutiny the top
threat in the finance and IT/telecoms industries
• Political change the top trend in education

21. Further analysis - size
• Very little difference between SMEs and large businesses
• Loss of key employee more of an issue for SMEs
• New regulations more of an issue for large businesses

22. Conducting trend analysis
70% of organisations conduct trend analysis to better
understand threats, a slight decline from 73% last year.

23. Use of trend analysis in informing BCM
A third (33%) DO NOT use trend analysis to guide
BCM programmes, a figure unchanged from last year’s.

24. Level of BC investment
There is a slight increase in organizations reporting
more investments in BC (23% to 24%).

25. Key takeaways
• Cyber issues continue to dominate the threat landscape
although physical security incidents are seen as a
concern for many professionals.

26. Key takeaways
• The ‘human factor’ (i.e. skills shortage, loss of key
employees) clearly impacts on business performance
and requires a strategic response.

27. Key takeaways
• Access to important data (e.g. trend analysis results)
remains a barrier for many organizations which impairs
resilience.

28. Questions?

29. 0118 9478241
andrew.scott@thebci.org
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andrewcolinscott
@andrewthescot
Andrew Scott CBCI