1.
BCI Horizon Scan 2016
Toronto Forum
Patrick Alcantara DBCI
Senior Research Associate
Business Continuity Institute (BCI)
Andrew Scott CBCI
Senior Communications Manager
Business Continuity Institute (BCI)

2.
Identify near-term threats
on the radar of BC practitioners worldwide
Benchmark horizon scanning activity
Look out for trends that may influence
businesses in the medium- and long-term
Today’s agenda

3.
About the BCI Horizon Scan 2016 Survey
568 74
organizations countries

4.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
3
5
7
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 5 threat:
Security incident

5.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
3
5
7
9
11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 4 threat:
Act of terror

6.
0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 3 threat:
IT/telecoms outage

7.
0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 2 threat:
Data breach

8.
0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 1 threat:
Cyber attack

9.
Tracking threats
• Appears in the top 10 for
the first time since the
survey began
5
Availability of
talents or key skills
(14th to 9th)

10.
Tracking threats
• Almost three-quarters of
organizations (74%) report
at least 1 disruption/year*
• 14% claim losses of at
least €1 million*
2
Supply chain disruption
(5th to 7th)
*BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2015

11.
Tracking threats
5
Human illness
(8th to 13th)
1
Fire
(10th to 11th)

12.
Tracking threats
0 20 40 60 80 100
Health & safety incident
Availability of…
Adverse weather
Supply chain disruption
Interruption to utility…
Security incident
Act of terrorism
Unplanned IT & telecom…
Data breach
Cyber attack
Threats across the globe
Extremely concerned Concerned
Somewhat concerned Not concerned
0 20 40 60 80 100
Fire
Earthquake/tsunami
Security incident
Act of terror
Interruption to utility…
Supply chain disruption
Adverse weather
Unplanned IT & telecom…
Data breach
Cyber attack
Threats in Canada
Extremely concerned Concerned
Somewhat concerned Not concerned
+4
+4
+7
+1
-3
-3

13.
What does this mean?
• Are cyber attacks the most
likely disruption?
• Will a cyber attack have the
biggest impact?

14.
Top trends
29
36
42
47
48
50
55
56
63
83
0 20 40 60 80 100
Energy security & the
transition to sustainable…
Changing consumer attitudes
& behaviour
Political change
Increasing supply chain
complexity
Potential emergence of a
global pandemic
Prevalence & high adoption of
internet dependent services
New regulations & increased
regulatory scrutiny
Loss of key employee
Influence of social media
Use of internet for malicious
attack
Trends across the globe

15.
Top trends
29
36
42
47
48
50
55
56
63
83
0 20 40 60 80 100
Energy security & the
transition to sustainable…
Changing consumer attitudes
& behaviour
Political change
Increasing supply chain
complexity
Potential emergence of a
global pandemic
Prevalence & high adoption of
internet dependent services
New regulations & increased
regulatory scrutiny
Loss of key employee
Influence of social media
Use of internet for malicious
attack
Trends across the globe
39
44
44
44
50
50
50
50
72
72
0 20 40 60 80 100
Changes in consumer attitudes
& behaviour
Potential emergence of a
global pandemic
News regulations & increased
regulatory scrutiny
Climate change
Loss of key employee
Political change
Prevalence & high adoption of
internet dependent services
Increasing supply chain
complexity
Influence of social media
Use of internet for malicious
attack
Trends within Canada
+4
-3
+1
+3
-4
-1
+4
-3

16.
Further analysis
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Growing potential for social unrest
• Central and Latin America (CALA): Political change (1st)
• Middle East & North Africa (MENA): Loss of key
(1st)
• Asia: Potential emergence of a global pandemic (2nd)

17.
Further analysis
• Manufacturing: Increasing supply chain complexity (1st)
• Health and social care: Emergence of a global pandemic (1st)
• Finance and IT/telecommunications: New regulations and
increased regulatory scrutiny (3rd)
• Education: Political change (3rd)

18.
Conducting trend analysis
70% of organisations conduct
trend analysis to better
understand threats, a slight
decline from 73% last year.
39
31
26
4
Global
YES, this is conducted by a central, corporate function or department
YES, but many different departments so this according to their own needs
NO, we don't do this
I don't know

19.
Conducting trend analysis
39
31
26
4
Global
YES, this is conducted by a central, corporate function or department
YES, but many different departments so this according to their own needs
NO, we don't do this
I don't know
63
31
6 0
Canada
YES, this is conducted by a central, corporate function or department
YES, but many different departments so this according to their own needs
NO, we don't do this
I don't know

20.
Use of trend analysis in informing BCM
A third (33%) DO NOT use
trend analysis to guide
BCM programmes, a figure
unchanged from last year’s.
41
26
30
3
Global
YES, I'm aware of the outputs and I use them
YES, I help develop the analysis in the first place
NO, I don't have access to this information

21.
Use of trend analysis in informing BCM
41
26
30
3
Global
YES, I'm aware of the outputs and I use them
YES, I help develop the analysis in the first place
NO, I don't have access to this information
63
19
19
0
Canada
YES, I'm aware of the outputs and I use them
YES, I help develop the analysis in the first place
NO, I don't have access to this information

22.
Level of BC investment
There is a slight increase in
organizations reporting
more investments in BC (23%
to 24%).
24
54
11
11
Global
Increased to meet the needs of a growing programme or new requirements
Maintained at the appropriate levels for the programme scope and position
in the lifecycle
Cut, limiting the scope or effectiveness of the programme
I don’t know

23.
Level of BC investment
24
54
11
11
Global
Increased to meet the needs of a growing programme or new requirements
Maintained at the appropriate levels for the programme scope and position
in the lifecycle
Cut, limiting the scope or effectiveness of the programme
I don’t know
25
50
13
13
Canada
Increased to meet the needs of a growing programme or new requirements
Maintained at the appropriate levels for the programme scope and position
in the lifecycle
Cut, limiting the scope or effectiveness of the programme
I don’t know

24.
Use of ISO 22301 in BCM implementation
51
18
24
7
Global
Use ISO22301 as a framework
Don't currently use ISO22301 as a framework but we intend to move
towards this during 2016.
Don't use ISO22301 as a framework and have no plans to move towards
this during 2016.
N/A
A majority of organizations
report using ISO 22301
as a framework for BCM
implementation.

25.
Use of ISO 22301 in BCM implementation
24
54
11
11
Global
Use ISO22301 as a framework
Don't currently use ISO22301 as a framework but we intend to move
towards this during 2016.
Don't use ISO22301 as a framework and have no plans to move towards
this during 2016.
N/A
44
11
39
6
Canada
Use ISO22301 as a framework
Don't currently use ISO22301 as a framework but we intend to move
towards this during 2016.
Don't use ISO22301 as a framework and have no plans to move towards
this during 2016.
N/A

26.
Key takeaways
• Cyber issues continue to dominate the threat landscape
although physical security incidents are seen as a
concern for many professionals.

27.
Key takeaways
• The ‘human factor’ (i.e. skills shortage, loss of key
employees) clearly impacts on business performance
and requires a strategic response.

28.
Key takeaways
• Access to important data (e.g. trend analysis results)
remains a barrier for many organizations which impairs
resilience. This strengthens the case for breaking down
silos and encouraging engagement among management
disciplines which build overall resilience.

29.
011 8372 3079
patrick.alcantara@thebci.org
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/patrickalcantara/en
Patrick Alcantara DBCI
0118 9478241
andrew.scott@thebci.org
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andrewcolinscott
@andrewthescot
Andrew Scott CBCI