Educomp reported strong quarterly performance in 4QFY2010, with 47.1% revenue growth and 9.1% profit growth. However, excluding one-time items, revenue fell 3% while profit rose 90%. The company expects 25-30% revenue growth and profit between Rs330-350cr for FY2011. Educomp's school learning solutions drove growth but newer initiatives face investment periods. While margins expanded on cost reductions, profit growth was restricted by higher costs and taxes. The company maintains aggressive expansion plans in K-12, online, and supplementary education segments.
1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I IT
May 24, 2010
Educomp Solutions BUY
CMP Rs484
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs734
Investment Period 12 Months
Educomp reported a robust quarterly performance in 4QFY2010, recording a
47.1% yoy growth in its Top-line and a 9.1% yoy increase in its Bottom-line, Stock Info
aided by an EBIDTA Margin expansion of 729bp to 55.4% (on a reported basis).
However, after eliminating the Impact of the Transfer of existing schools and the Sector IT
EduSmart Model (securitisation), the 4QFY2010 revenue was down by 3% yoy, Market Cap (Rs cr) 4,598
while the PAT was up by 90% yoy. The management has guided towards a
revenue growth of 25-30%, at Rs1,300-1,350cr, and a PAT of Rs330-350cr, Beta 1.0
based on the reported numbers. The increased allocation and renewed emphasis
52 WK High / Low
by the government on the Education Sector during the Union Budget 2010-11 1,017/472
augurs well for Educomp, which is currently pursuing newer initiatives in the Avg. Daily Volume 4,11,630
Sector. We maintain a Buy on the stock.
Face Value (Rs) 2
Performance once again driven by strong Operational efficiency in SLS:
BSE Sensex 16,470
Educomp’s robust revenue growth (on a reported basis) was mainly driven by a
61.5% yoy growth in the School Learning Solutions (SLS) Business, comprising of Nifty 4,944
Smart Class and ICT Solutions (ICT), with the former clocking a growth of
Reuters Code EDSO.BO
117.5% yoy, and the latter clocking de-growth of 49.7% yoy. However, if we
were to eliminate the impact of transfer of the existing Smart Class contracts and Bloomberg Code EDSL@IN
the EduSmart model, the revenues in the overall Smart Class grew by 18% yoy to
Rs122cr. EBITDA Margins expanded by a strong 729bp yoy, following strong Shareholding Pattern (%)
improvement in SLS Margins. In spite of the excellent operational performance, Promoters 50.1
Bottom-line growth was restricted to only 9.1% yoy, on account of higher interest
costs, tax rate and lower other income. MF/Banks/Indian FIs 3.8
Outlook and Valuation: In addition to the aggressive expansion plans in the FII/NRIs/OCBs 41.0
Smart Class Segment, the company is also investing a considerable amount in Indian Public 5.1
newer initiatives, in terms of setting up its own K-12 high-schools, and has
embarked on expanding its On-line Supplementary business. We have pruned Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
our estimates as well as reduced our Target multiple in view of the capex intensity
Sensex 1.3 18.6 15.8
(K-12 business), D/E of 0.6x, increased competition and concerns over the future
outcome of its initiatives in Raffles/E-learning and other businesses. We have
Educomp (29.8) (11.1) 26.7
valued Educomp at 16x FY2012E EPS of Rs45.9. We expect the company to log
CAGR of 44% and 27% in Top-line and Bottom-line, respectively, over
FY2010-12E. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price of
Rs734 (Rs926).
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 637 1041 1553 2165
% chg 122.7 63.3 49.3 39.4
Net Profit 133 271 341 436
% chg 89.8 103.9 25.7 28.0
FDEPS (Rs) 15.0 28.5 35.9 45.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 47.8 45.7 48.2 43.4
P/E (x) 32.3 17.0 13.5 10.6 Rahul Jain
Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345
P/BV (x) 8.4 3.4 2.7 2.2
E-mail: Rahul.j@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 33.3 29.0 22.3 22.9
RoCE (%) 21.6 19.5 20.6 21.0
Vibha Salvi
EV/Sales (x) 7.6 4.7 3.4 2.4
Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.8 10.2 7.0 5.6 E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. Educomp Solutions I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
Net Revenue 333 226 47.1 1,041 637 63.3
Operating Costs 174 135 29.1 564 326 73.1
EBITDA 159 92 73.6 476 311 53.1
Depreciation &
Amortisation 20 28 (29.3) 114 81 39.8
Finance Charges 13 8 60.3 49 27 82.4
Prior Period Items 0 0 0 0
Other Income 10 39 (73.3) 126 15 752.3
Income before Income
Taxes 136 94 45.4 440 218 102.1
Income Taxes 76 37 102.8 163 77 110.3
Net Income 61 57 7.5 277 140 97.6
Minority Interest 0 (1) (5) (7)
Share in Associates
Profit/Loss (1) 0 (1) (1)
Net Income after Min. Int.
& share in associates 60 55 9.1 271 133 104.2
*Basic EPS (Rs) 6.4 6.4 (0.6) 28.5 15.4 85.06
EBITDA Margin (%) 47.7 40.4 45.8 48.8
Net Profit Margin (%) 18.1 24.4 26.1 20.9
Effective Tax Rate (%) 55.4 39.7 37.0 35.5
Source: Company, Angel Research, * EPS is down compared to the growth in Profits as there has been
dilution in number of Equity Shares from 8.6cr in FY09 to 9.5cr mainly on account of QIP.
SLS and K-12 segments continue to drive the Top-line
Educomp Solutions recorded a 47.1% yoy growth in its consolidated reported
revenues in 4QFY2010, driven by the strong growth recorded by its SLS and K-12
Segments. The SLS Business, comprising Smart Class and ICT Solutions (ICT),
recorded a strong 61.5% yoy growth in consolidated Revenues, with the former
clocking a growth of 117.5% yoy, and the latter clocking de-growth of 49.7% yoy
(on reported basis). However, if we were to eliminate the impact of transfer of the
existing Smart Class contracts and the EduSmart model, the revenues in the overall
Smart Class grew by 18% yoy to Rs122cr. The company signed 720 new schools
and implemented 503 under the Smart Class Business, during the quarter, taking
the total number of schools to 3,077 (with the total student count reaching 3.1mn).
In the ICT Business, Educomp signed in 600 new schools during the quarter, taking
the total to 15,426 schools (with total students touching 8.2mn). K-12 business
revenues, comprising of Educomp’s owned and Eurokids High Schools, Pre-schools
of Eurokids and Roots to Wings, grew by27.1% yoy.
The Higher Learning Solutions (HLS) Segment, however, de-grew by 10.9% yoy as
the new JVs, Raffles and Pearson, are still in investment mode. The Online,
Supplementary and Global Segment (comprising of Online Supplementary products
from its subsidiaries, Learning.Com USA, Ask n Learn Singapore, AuthorGen,
Learnhub.com and Learninghour.com, which provide career and work-related
counseling initiatives) continued to de-grow and was down by 4.7% yoy, as most of
these products are also currently in investment mode.
Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Revenue Break-up
Segments Revenues (Rs cr) chg Contribution (%)
4QFY10 4QFY09 (%) 4QFY10 4QFY09
School Learning Solutions 269 167 61.5 80.8 73.5
Higher Learning Solutions 8 9 (10.9) 2.3 3.9
K-12 Schools 30 24 27.1 9.1 10.5
Online, Supplementary &
Global 26 27 (4.7) 7.9 12.1
Net Revenues 333 226 47.1 100.0 100.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 24, 2010 2
3. Educomp Solutions I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Educomp has strong growth plans for its K-12 business segment. The company has
signed 69 high schools through its subsidiary Educomp Infrastructure and Services
Management Limited (EISML) as on date, of which 29 schools are already
operational and another 14 Euro-schools are operational under Eurokids, serving
over 24,000 students. To expand its high school business through partnerships and
collaborations, Educomp has also recently signed a joint venture with the LAVASA
Corporation to set up international schools in Lavasa. Additionally, the company’s
pre-school initiatives, Eurokids and Roots To Wings, are also witnessing strong
traction, with the former having 555 pre-schools, of which 30 are owned by
Eurokids, and rest are franchisee-based, and the latter running 220 franchises,
covering 5000 students, as on date.
The company’s Online, Supplementary and Global business segment is in expansion
mode, with new initiatives on the platter, including the launch of India’s first VSAT-
based Engineering Preparation program, under the brand LEAP, through which
Educomp aims at seizing an estimated Rs2,500cr worth of market opportunity of the
IIT-JEE and AIEEE. Educomp will open LEAP centers across Tier-II and Tier-III cities in
India, to allow students access to high quality coaching through VSAT. This segment
is currently in the investment phase and is witnessing losses. However, these newer
initiatives in the Supplementary business are expected to deliver strong Revenue
inflow over the next few years, as consumer spending in this area of Education is
expected to be 2x than that on the schools and colleges education spend.
Strong Margin expansion continues, with a reduction in the Cost of Goods
Educomp’s EBITDA Margins registered an expansion of 729bp yoy during
4QFY2010 to 47.7%, on the back of the 1,190bp yoy reduction in the Cost of
Goods sold in the consequent quarter. The staff costs were also down by 55bp yoy.
However, SG&A costs increased by 516bp and restricted a further improvement in
margins. The company’s newer initiatives in HLS and Online, Supplement
businesses, which are currently in investment mode, impacted the overall Margins.
Moreover, the K-12 segment, which is a highly capital intensive business, is in its
initial years of commencement and is witnessing margin pressures. However, a
strong improvement in the SLS Margins cushioned the pressure on the overall
Margins.
Exhibit 3: Segment-wise EBIT Break-up
Segment EBIT (Rs cr) chg Margin (%)
4QFY10 4QFY09 (%) 4QFY10 4QFY09
School Learning Solutions 162.6 72.3 124.8 60.5 43.4
Higher Learning Solutions (3.9) 1.3 (406.0) (50.0) 14.6
K-12 Schools 8.8 9.8 (9.5) 29.3 41.2
Online, Supplementary &
Global (4.0) 0.7 (706.0) (15.2) 2.4
Total 163.6 84.0 94.6 49.1 37.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Higher interest costs and tax, and lower other income restricts PAT growth
The depreciation cost during the quarter was down by 29.3% yoy; however, the
interest costs spurted by 60.3%, while the other income declined by 73.3% yoy, and
the tax rate moved up from 39.7% to 55.4% yoy. Thus, despite the excellent top-line
and margin performances, the Bottom-line growth was restricted to only 9.1% yoy.
Reconciliation eliminating Impact of existing schools and EduSmart
If we were to eliminate the impact of the transfer of existing schools and the
Edusmart model, the 4QFY2010 revenue was down by 3% yoy, while the PAT was
up by 90% yoy. Similarly, for the full year FY2010, after eliminating this impact, the
revenue was up by 41% yoy, while the PAT was up by 71% yoy.
May 24, 2010 3
5. Educomp Solutions I 4QFY2010 Result Update
We have pruned our estimates as well as reduced our Target multiple in view of the
capex intensity (K-12 business), D/E of 0.6x, increased competition and concerns
over the future outcome of its initiatives in Raffles/E-learning and other businesses.
We have valued Educomp at 16x FY2012E EPS of Rs45.9. We estimate the company
to record CAGR of 44% and 28% in Top-line and Bottom-line respectively, over
FY2010-12E. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price to Rs734
(Rs926).
Exhibit 5: One year forward P/E Band
2200 60x
2000
1800
1600 45x
1400
Share Price (Rs)
1200
1000 30x
800
600
15x
400
200
0
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Apr-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 24, 2010 5
6. Educomp Solutions I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr)
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 286 637 1,041 1,553 2,165
Less: Excise duty - - - - -
Net Sales 286 637 1,041 1,553 2,165
Other operating income - - - - -
Total operating income 286 637 1,041 1,553 2,165
% chg 159.9 122.7 63.3 49.3 39.4
Total Expenditure 159 333 564 804 1,225
Cost of Services 80 111 190 285 430
SGA 31 106 224 324 515
Personnel 49 116 150 195 280
Other - - - - -
EBITDA 127 304 476 749 940
% chg 150.4 140.0 56.4 57.4 25.4
(% of Net Sales) 44.3 47.8 45.7 48.2 43.4
Depreciation& Amortisation 33 81 114 180 230
EBIT 94 223 362 569 710
% chg 128.3 137.9 62.4 57.2 24.7
(% of Net Sales) 32.8 35.0 34.8 36.7 32.8
Interest & other Charges 4.81 26.80 48.86 75.26 75.36
Other Income 17.76 22.74 126.21 27.50 32.50
(% of PBT) 16.7 10.4 28.7 5.3 4.9
Misc exp written off 0.3 0.1 - - -
Recurring PBT 106 219 440 522 667
% chg 134.2 105.7 100.8 18.7 27.9
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 0 2
PBT (reported) 106 217 440 522 667
Tax 35 77 163 170 215
(% of PBT) 33.1 35.6 37.0 32.6 32.2
PAT (reported) 71 140 277 352 452
Add: Share of earnings of associate
Less: Minority interest (MI) 0 7 6 11 16
Prior period items - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 71 133 271 341 436
ADJ. PAT 71 135 271 341 436
% chg 150.4 89.8 101.1 25.7 28.0
(% of Net Sales) 24.7 20.9 26.0 21.9 20.1
Basic EPS (Rs) 8.4 15.4 28.5 35.9 45.9
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 7.1 15.0 28.5 35.9 45.9
% chg 126.8 110.8 90.1 25.8 28.0
May 24, 2010 6
7. Educomp Solutions I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr)
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 17 17 19 19 19
Preference Capital - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 291 483 1,346 1,671 2,091
Shareholders Funds 308 501 1,365 1,690 2,110
Minority Interest - - - - -
Total Loans 377 890 1,023 1,505 1,507
Deferred Tax Liability 21 44 44 44 44
Total Liabilities 706 1,434 2,432 3,239 3,661
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 289 650 982 1,534 2,032
Less: Acc. Depreciation 55 133 247 427 657
Net Block 234 516 735 1,107 1,374
Capital Work-in-Progress 37 332 301 301 302
Goodwill 28 123 123 123 123
Investments 4 73 73 73 73
Current Assets 464 615 1,445 1,922 2,139
Cash 291 190 697 824 751
Loans & Advances 49 114 170 235 235
Other 124 311 579 863 1,153
Current liabilities 61 225 245 286 350
Net Current Assets 403 390 1,201 1,635 1,789
Mis. Exp. not written off 0 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 706 1,434 2,432 3,239 3,661
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr)
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 107 219 440 522 667
Depreciation 33 81 114 180 230
Change in Working Capital (73) (102) (343) (391) (353)
Less: Other income 2 72 126 28 33
Direct taxes paid (18) (34) (163) (170) (215)
Cash Flow from Operations 51 236 (79) 113 296
(Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets (222) (623) (302) (552) (498)
(Inc)./ Dec. in Investments (2) (110) - - -
(Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances - - - - -
Other income 13 12 - - -
Cash Flow from Investing (210) (721) (302) (552) (498)
Issue of Equity 304 (2) 639 - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 44 419 190 547 2
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (4) (6) 11 14 14
Others (4) (27) 69 (33) (142)
Cash Flow from Financing 340 385 887 566 130
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 181 (101) 506 127 (72)
Opening Cash balances 111 291 190 697 824
Closing Cash balances 291 190 697 824 751
May 24, 2010 7
9. Educomp Solutions I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Educomp Solutions
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.
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Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
May 24, 2010 9