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IPO Note | Media
                                                                                                                          July 3, 2010



 Hindustan Media Ventures                                                                 SUBSCRIBE
                                                                                          Issue Open: July 5, 2010
 Venturing out                                                                            Issue Close: July 7, 2010
 Rationale for our Subscribe view                                                         Issue Details
 Regional print market poised for growth, Hindustan well placed to benefit: According     Face Value: Rs10
 to KPMG, the print landscape is dominated by regional newspapers. Moreover,
                                                                                          Present Equity Capital: Rs57.1cr
 Hindi is the largest language in terms of penetration. With a cumulative readership
 base of 9.9mn (third largest daily newspaper in terms of readership) and a               Post Issue Equity Capital: Rs72.6cr
 cumulative growth in Readership of 15.9% in the period between July 2006 and
                                                                                          Issue size (amount): Rs270cr
 December 2009 (Source: IRS, R2 2007 to Q1 2010), we believe, Hindustan is well
 placed to benefit from the growth in the regional print market.                          Issue Price: Price Band of Rs162 - 175

 No1 in Bihar/Jharkhand, fastest growing daily in UP: Hindustan has a firm presence
                                                  UP:                                     Promoters holding pre-issue: 98.9%

 in the key Hindi markets of Bihar and Jharkhand with a readership of 4.5mn and           Promoters holding post-issue: 77.9%
 1.4mn respectively and is the fastest growing Hindi daily in UP (the largest Hindi
 market in India) since its launch in the state in 2007. Hindustan was launched in
 UP with eight editions in Agra, Allahabad, Kanpur, Lucknow, Meerut, Varanasi,            Book Building
 Bareilly and Dehradun and has since garnered a total Hindi daily readership share
                                                                                          QIBs                           At least 60%
 of 21% (16% in 2007).
                                                                                          Non-Institutional              At least 10%
 Strong Infrastructure and synergies with promoter HT Media: Backed by
                                                                                          Retail                         At least 30%
 70-year history as an eminent Hindi daily, Hindustan has successfully ventured out
 of its traditional markets, expanding into new states and gaining market share in a
 relatively short time frame. The company is a part of the HT Media group, and            Post Issue Shareholding Pattern
 derives significant leverage from the brand identity of Hindustan Times (2nd largest
                                                                                          Promoters Group                       98.9%
 English daily), and Mint (2nd largest business daily), in terms of both advertisement
                                                                                          MF/Banks/Indian
 and sharing of content.                                                                  FIs/FIIs/Public & Others              22.1%
 Outlook and Valuation
 For the full year FY2010 (including current 4 months financials and 8 months of
 financials of acquired business), Hindustan Media Ventures (HMVL) reported a
 top-line of Rs439cr and an earnings of Rs45.2cr. At the upper price band of Rs175,
 HMVL is trading at 16.2x FY2012E EPS of Rs10.8 which we believe is reasonable,
 given - 1) its high Earnings growth (31.8% CAGR during FY2010-12E), 2) rich
 parentage and group portfolio under HT Media, 3) strong position in the regional
 print markets and 4) proven execution skills.

 We have valued HMVL on basis of P/E multiple relative to its peers - Jagran Prakashan
 (JPL) and DB Corp. We have valued the stock at 18x FY2012E EPS (~10% discount
 to our target multiple of 20x for Jagran and DB Corp) and arrived at a fair value
 of Rs195 indicating a ~11% upside to the upper price band. Hence, we recommend
                                                                                         Anand Shah
 a Subscribe view to the issue.
                                                                                         +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 334
                                                                                         Email: anand.shah@angeltrade.com

                                                                                                    Kapur
                                                                                         Chitrangda Kapur
                                                                                         +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 323
                                                                                         Email: chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com




Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Company Background
               HT Media Ventures (HMVL) is promoted by HT Media, an integrated multimedia
               company, which publishes, among others, leading dailies in India such as Hindustan
               Times and Mint. HT Media currently owns 98.85% of HMVL's equity share capital.
               HMVL has recently acquired HTML's Hindi business, which includes Hindustan, Nandan
               and Kadambini publications, certain printing facilities and personnel, from HT Media,
               pursuant to the Business Purchase Agreement dated November 16, 2009, as a going
               concern, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with
               effect from December 1, 2009.

               HMVL is one of the leading print media companies in India, with its flagship brand
               Hindustan enjoying a Readership of 9.9mn readers (third largest Hindi daily). Hindustan
               is published in four editions and 113 sub-editions and is presently printed at 17
               locations in the states/regions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Punjab
               and Delhi NCR with a total installed rated capacity of ~0.78mn copies/hr. The company
               also publishes two Hindi magazines, Nandan, a children's magazine, and Kadambini,
               a general interest magazine. In addition to the Hindi publications, HMVL operates the
               website, www.livehindustan.com, which focuses on providing news in Hindi with regional
               content and have recently forayed into event management and customized event
               solutions.

               Exhibit 1: HMVL's business model

                                                         HMVL




                        Print                           Internet                        Events




                      Hindustan
                       Nandan                    www.livehindustan.com             Hindustan Events
                      Kadambini




               Source: Annual Report, RHP




July 3, 2010                                                                                          2
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Issue Details
               HMVL is tapping the IPO market with an issue size of Rs270cr and a price band of
               Rs162-175 per equity share, thus resulting in a public issue of 1.67cr and 1.54cr
               equity shares of face value Rs10, resulting in a Promoter shareholding dilution of 23%
               and 21% at the lower and the upper price band, respectively.

               The company plans to use the IPO proceeds for expanding its presence in new markets
               and for the repayment of debts. HMVL plans to set up eight new publishing units for
               printing and publishing new editions of Hindustan and expects the same to be fully
               operational by end of fiscal 2012.

               Exhibit 2: Objects of the Issue
                Particulars                                                          Amount (Rs cr)
                Setting up new publishing units                                                  66.0
                Upgradation of existing plant & machinery                                        55.0
                Repayment of loans                                                           135.0
                Genreal Corporate Purpose                                                           *
                Total                                                                        270.0
               Source: Company, RHP Angel Research
                                   ,

               Exhibit 3: Shareholder's pattern (Pre and Post Issue)
                                                        Pre-Issue
                                                         re-Issue                   Post-Issue
                                                                                     ost-Issue
                Particulars                No. of Shares               %    No. of Shares          %
                Promoter
                HT Media                     56,472,485             98.85    56,472,485       77.92
                Promoter Group
                Ms. Namrata Bhartia                 571,280          1.00       571,280          0.79
                Public                                   -              -    15,428,571       21.29
                Total                        57,043,765             99.85    72,472,336     100.00
               Source:Company, RHP Angel Research
                                  ,


               Rationale for our recommendation
               Regional print market poised for growth, Hindustan well placed to benefit

               According to KPMG, the print landscape is dominated by regional newspapers which
               target population of ~1bn. Of more than 62,000 newspapers, 92% are published in
               Hindi and other vernacular languages. Also Hindi is the largest language in terms of
               penetration, of total population of India, followed by Marathi, Tamil, Telegu, Bengali
               and English. In terms of readership, for 2008-10, the Hindi print sector grew at a
               CAGR of 2.3% in pace with the total print sector growth, English Print, however, lagged
               a bit with 2.1% growth. Hindustan, garnering a 16% readership share of the total
               Hindi print market outpaced the sector growth, registering a CAGR of 3.7% over the
               same period.




July 3, 2010                                                                                            3
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Exhibit 4: Hindustan growing at a faster rate v/s Hindi print sector
                                                                        Readership (mn)
                Publications                  2008 R2         2009 R2         2010 Q1            CAGR (%)
                English Daily                      16.19        17.06               16.88             2.11
                (% of total)                        10.3         10.5                10.3
                Hindi Daily                        56.15        57.57                58.7             2.25
                (% of total)                        35.9         35.5                35.8
                Hindustan                           9.21         9.34                9.91             3.73
                (% of Hindi Daily)                  16.4         16.2                16.9
                Other Daily                        93.31        97.91               98.58             2.79
                (% of total)                        59.6         60.4                60.2
                Total                             156.62       162.13              163.85             2.28
               Source: Company, RHP IRS, Angel Research
                                   ,

               Hindustan has a firm presence in the key hindi markets of Bihar and Jharkhand with
               a readership of 4.5mn and 1.4mn respectively and is the fastest growing Hindi daily
               in UP (the largest Hindi market in India) since its launch in the state in 2007. Hindustan
               was launched in UP with eight editions in Agra, Allahabad, Kanpur, Lucknow, Meerut,
               Varanasi, Bareilly and Dehradun and has since garnered a total hindi daily
                readership share of 21% (16% in 2007).

               Exhibit 5: Fastest growing daily in UP markets in terms of Readership
                       350                         2007 R2    2009 R2       2010 Q1

                       300

                       250
                (mn)




                       200

                       150

                       100

                        50

                        -
                               Agra   Allahabad     Kanpur   Lucknow      Meerut      Varanasi    Bareilly
               Source: Company, Angel Research

               Hence, with a cumulative readership base of 9.9mn (third largest daily newspaper in
               terms of readership) and a cumulative growth in Readership of 15.9% in the period
               between July 2006 and December 2009 (Source: IRS, R2 2007 to Q1 2010), we
               believe, Hindustan is well placed to benefit from the growth in the regional print
               market.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                 4
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




                                                   Exhibit 6: Readership vs. competitors in Bihar, Jharkhand and UP
                                                           14.0   12.8                     12.6                        12.2                      12.4
                                                           12.0

                                                           10.0
                                                                                                                                                        8.4
                                                                         8.0                      7.9                      7.9




                                                    (mn)
                                                            8.0
                                                                                                        6.2                      6.4                          6.5
                                                                               6.1
                                                            6.0

                                                            4.0

                                                            2.0                      1.3                      1.2                      1.2                          1.2

                                                            0.0
                                                                     2007 R2                  2008 R2                      2009 R2                  2010 Q1
                                                                          Dainik Jagran           Hindustan            Amar Ujala             Prabhat Khabar

                                                   Source: Company, RHP IRS, Angel Research
                                                                       ,

                                                   Proven execution facility and strong infrastructure

                                                   Backed by 70-year history as an eminent Hindi daily, Hindustan has successfully ven-
                                                   tured out of its traditional markets, expanding into new states and gaining market
                                                   share in a relatively short time frame. In April 2008, HMVL implemented its brand
                                                   repositioning campaign, Tayyari, to meet the changing consumer needs and to en-
                                                   sure growth and consolidation of its position in key markets through product re-inven-
                                                   tion. The campaign which sought to attract a new and younger profile of target read-
                                                   ers and to provide a diverse and interesting mix of news, analysis and entertainment,
                                                   enabled HMVL to create a niche for Hindustan in the Hindi heartland.

Exhibit 7: Hindustan grown to being third largest hindi newspaper from being sixth largest in 2004
 (mn)                           2003 R2#         2005 R2            2006 R2                2007 R2                  2008 R2            2009 R2            2010 Q1
 Dainik Jagran                      16.40           19.17                18.19               16.50                    16.29              16.10                  16.31
 Dainik Bhaskar                     13.42           15.09                13.48               12.82                    13.00              12.88                  13.32
 Hindustan                           7.94              9.00                9.67               8.55                     9.21                  9.34                   9.91
 Malyalam Manorama                   9.21              9.43                9.14               8.66                     8.42                  9.12                   9.58
 Amar Ujala                          8.85              9.85                9.40               8.07                     8.07                  8.30                   8.49
 Daily Thanthi                       9.15           10.56                  9.32               7.91                     7.68                  7.52                   7.35
 The Times of India                  7.10              7.29                6.92               6.83                     6.71                  7.14                   7.04
 Lokmat                              7.28              8.87                7.69               6.70                     6.63                  7.10                   7.36
 Rajasthan Patrika                   5.91              6.11                6.71               7.40                     6.67                  6.49                   6.69
 Ananda Bazar Patrika                5.12              6.23                6.85               6.86                     6.68                  6.47                   6.53
Source: Company, RHP IRS, Angel Research; Note: # period from July 2003 to June 2004
                    ,


                                                   The company's broad geographic reach in key Hindi speaking markets, extending
                                                   from Jharkhand in the east to Mohali in the north, provides it with a distinct
                                                   competitive advantage, enabling it to offer audiences content that is increasingly di-
                                                   verse and meet its advertiser's needs. Moreover, HMVL, being a part of the HT media
                                                   group has long standing relationships with its advertisers (includes
                                                   commercial, Government and quasi-Government departments) and leverages on the
                                                   group's strength with various advertising agencies to facilitate sale of advertising space
                                                   in its publications.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                                                                               5
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Printing Presence in 17 locations and total installed capacity of ~0.78mn copies/hr

               HMVL owns all its printing facilities, save the three franchise facilities in Bhagalpur,
               Muzaffarpur and Varanasai; and Delhi NCR and Mohali which are owned by the
               Promoter.

               Exhibit 8: Multi-state presence
                State                           No. of                 Installed           No. of edition/
                                       Prinitng facility   capacity (copies/hr)       sub editions printed
                UP & Delhi NCR                        8                 381,000                           60
                Bihar                                 4                 222,000                           29
                Jharkhand                             3                 141,000                           20
                Uttarakhand                           1                  36,000                             7
                Total                               16*                 780,000                        116**
               Source: Company, RHP Angel Research; Note: * Excludes HT media's printing facility at Mohali, **
                                    ,
               Excludes Delhi NCR edition of Hindustan in Mohali


               Synergies with promoter, HT Media

               The Company is a part of the HT Media group, and derive significant leverage from
               the brand identity of Hindustan Times (India's well recognized brands), and Mint (sec-
               ond largest business daily in terms of Readership), in terms of both advertisement and
               sharing of content. Further, the company has inked arrangement with its promoter to
               provide each other their respective existing infrastructure (HMVL is currently using HT
               Media's printing facility at Mohali) and other necessary amenities in their own
               operating geographies along with their respective printing facilities as well as to un-
               dertake the sale of advertisement space for and on behalf of each other.

               Common Management team, aware of group's philosophies and values

               HMVL has a strong management team. Both HMVL and HT Media share a common
               chairperson, one independent director, one non-executive director and the whole time
               director, thus drawing synergies as well as focus. Further, other key management
               personnel at HMVL were a part of HT Media for a long time, and hence, are aware of
               the group's philosophies and values. We believe, the relationship with HT Media will
               ensure HMVL access to national and international news which will help enhance edi-
               torial content of the newspaper.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                    6
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Financial Outlook
               HMVL has recently acquired HTML's Hindi business, certain printing facilities and
               personnel, from HT Media, pursuant to the Business Purchase Agreement dated
               November 16, 2009, as a going concern, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of
               Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical
               financials will not be indicative of company's results on a going-forward basis, as its
               results on a going-forward basis will include the consolidated results of the Acquired
               Business for full periods.

               For the full year FY2010 (including current 4 months financials and 8 months of
               financials of acquired business), HMVL reported a top-line of Rs439cr and an earnings
               of Rs45.2cr. During the period FY2010-12E, we expect HMVL to post a CAGR of
               16.5% in revenues primarily backed by 20.6% CAGR in advertising revenues on account
               of improved traction in recent launches (launched 3 editions of UP in last 18 months),
               new edition launches (planning to launch 8 new editions over next two years), up-tick
               in advertising volumes (as segments like Auto, BFSI and Real estate recover) and rate
               hikes. In terms of circulation revenues, we have modeled in a 10% CAGR during the
               period primarily driven by strong growth in UP region even as we factor flat revenue
               from Bihar/Jharkhand region due to potential cover price cuts in the region to counter-
               attack new entrant DB Corp.

               Exhibit 9: Model 16.5% CAGR in revenue aided by 20.6% CAGR in Advt.
                Y/E March             FY2008         FY2009      FY2010E     FY2011E       FY2012E
                Advertising Revenue    165.2          244.0        296.5        358.1         431.2
                Circulation Revenue      97.3         105.1        120.8        130.0         146.2
                Others                   19.3          21.3          21.6         17.9         18.4
                Total Sales            281.8          370.3        438.8        505.9         595.8
                YoY Growth %
                Advertising Revenue      29.7          47.7          21.5         20.8          20.4
                Circulation Revenue      10.1           8.0          15.0          7.6          12.5
                Others                    8.5           9.9           1.4       (17.2)           2.8
                Total Sales              20.7          31.4          18.5         15.3         17.8
                     Total
                % of Total
                Advertising Revenue      58.6          65.9          67.6         70.8          72.4
                Circulation Revenue      34.5          28.4          27.5         25.7          24.5
                Others                    6.9           5.7           4.9          3.5           3.1
               Source: Company, RHP Angel Research
                                   ,

               At the operating front, we have modeled in a 350bp expansion to 21.5% (18.5%)
               during FY2010-12E driving a robust 25.4% CAGR driven by benign newsprint cost
               (have modeled in 10-12% rise in newsprint prices over the period) and higher operat-
               ing leverage (traction in new launches and scale benefits). Hence, we expect earnings
               to register a robust CAGR of 31.8% CAGR during the period aided by robust Top-line
               growth, Margin expansion and lower interest costs (Rs135cr debt to be repaid from
               the IPO proceeds).




July 3, 2010                                                                                           7
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Exhibit 10: Earnings to grow at 31.8% CAGR over FY2010-12E
                          100.0                     Net Profit (LHS)          OPM (%)               25.0

                                                                                            78.5    20.0
                           80.0
                                                                                    61.8
                                                                                                    15.0
                           60.0




                (Rs cr)
                                                                       45.2
                                                                                                    10.0
                           40.0
                                                                                                    5.0
                           20.0
                                                                                                    -

                             -                                                                      (5.0)
                                            (0.1)
                                                        (4.0)
                          (20.0)   (13.6)                                                           (10.0)
                                    FY07    FY08       FY09            FY10         FY11E   FY12E
               Source: Company, Angel Research




July 3, 2010                                                                                                8
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




                                              Valuation
                                              At the upper price band of Rs175, HMVL is trading at 16.2x FY2012E EPS of Rs10.8
                                              which we believe is reasonable, given - 1) its high Earnings growth (31.8% CAGR
                                              during FY2010-12E), 2) rich parentage and group portfolio under HT Media, 3) strong
                                              position in the regional print markets (fastest growing daily in the largest Hindi market
                                              of UP) and 4) proven execution skills.

                                              Exhibit 11: Key Financials
                                                Y/E March (Rs cr)              FY2009         FY2010E             FY2011E      FY2012E
                                                Net Sales                          370              439              506          596
                                                % chg                              31.4             18.5             15.3         17.8
                                                    Profit
                                                Net Profit                         (3.8)            45.2             61.8         78.5
                                                % chg                               0.0              0.0             36.7         27.0
                                                OPM (%)                             3.8             18.5             19.9         21.5
                                                EPS (Rs)                           (0.5)             6.2              8.5         10.8
                                                P/E (x)                                -            28.1             20.5         16.2
                                                P/BV (x)                               -             6.7              5.2          4.2
                                                RoE (%)                                -            42.4             15.2         16.2
                                                RoCE (%)                               -            27.2             20.6         21.9
                                                EV/Sales (x)                           -             3.1              2.4          2.1
                                                EV/EBITDA (x)                          -            17.0             12.0          9.6
                                                Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Based on upper price band of Rs175


                                               We have valued HMVL on basis of P/E multiple relative to its peers - Jagran Prakashan
                                               (JPL) and DB Corp. We have valued the stock at 18x FY2012E EPS (~10% discount to
                                               our target multiple of 20x for Jagran and DB Corp) and arrived at a fair value of
                                               Rs195 indicating a ~11% upside to the upper price band. Hence, we recommend a
                                               Subscribe view to the issue.

Exhibit 12: HMVL priced attractively vis-à-vis its peers given higher earnings growth
 Company              CMP         Mkt Cap       EPS (Rs)                 P/E (x)                 RoE (%)              CAGR (FY10-12)
                                                                                                                      CAGR
                       (Rs)       (Rs cr)   FY11E         FY12E     FY11E    FY12E         FY11E        FY12E          Sales        PAT
 DB Corp              239         4,333      12.7          14.7      18.9      16.2          28.2          26.3        12.5        17.8
 Jagran Prak          125         3,757       6.6            7.9     19.0      15.8          31.0          34.3        15.7        16.2
 HMVL                 175         1,270       8.5          10.8      20.5      16.2          15.2          16.2        16.5        31.8
Source: Company, Angel Research


                                               K ey risks to our recommendation include: 1) Slowdown in GDP growth,
                                               2) volatility in newsprint prices, 3) Rupee depreciation, and 4) Increase in
                                               competitive intensity particularly in Bihar/Jharkhand.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                                              9
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Profit & Loss Account (Historical Financials)
                Y/E Mar (Rs cr)                      FY2006       FY2007        FY2008 FY2009 FY2010
                Advertising Revenue                          -             -            -           -     104.2
                Circulation Revenue                          -             -            -           -      39.0
                Others                                   15.4         15.9          16.8        17.6       19.1
                Net Sales                               15.4          15.9          16.8        17.6      162.3
                % chg                                        -          3.5          5.7         4.8            -
                Other Income                              0.1           0.1          0.0         0.1         4.7
                Total Income                            15.5          16.0          16.9        17.7      167.0
                Increase/(Dec) in Invt                    0.0         (0.0)          0.0         0.0         0.5
                Raw Material Cost                         2.2           2.5          2.4         2.7       64.2
                Staff Costs                               5.9           6.3          6.6         6.6       23.3
                Operating and Other Exp                   7.0           6.4          7.1         7.8       49.7
                Total Expenditure                       15.1          15.2          16.0        17.1      137.7
                EBIDTA
                EBIDTA                                    0.3           0.8          0.8         0.5       24.6
                (% of Net Sales)                          1.8           4.7          4.6         2.9        15.2
                Depreciation& Amortisation                0.4           0.3          0.3         0.3         4.6
                Interest                                     -             -            -           -        3.7
                PBT                                     (0.1)           0.5          0.5         0.3       21.0
                (% of Net Sales)                        (0.5)           3.1          2.9         1.6        12.9
                Tax                                       0.0           0.1          0.2         0.1         7.0
                (% of PBT)                             (49.3)          28.7         41.9        30.7        33.2
                Extraordinary Inc/ (Exp)                     -             -            -           -           -
                         PA
                Reported PAT                            (0.1)           0.4          0.3         0.2       14.0
                % chg                                     4.0           3.0          2.0         1.0            -
                (% of Net Sales)                        (0.7)           2.2          1.7         1.1         8.6
               Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain
               printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via
               debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of
               company's results.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                   10
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Balance Sheet (Historical Financials)
                Y/E Mar (Rs cr)                     FY2006        FY2007        FY2008 FY2009 FY2010
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital                      4.0           4.0          4.0         7.0       57.1
                Share Application Money                      -             -         3.0            -           -
                Reserves & Surplus                        3.5           3.8          4.1         4.3       18.3
                              Funds
                Shareholder's Funds                       7.4           7.8         11.1        11.3       75.4
                Total Debt                                   -             -            -           -     135.0
                Deferred Tax Liabilities (Net)            0.1           0.2          0.3         0.3         2.8
                Total Liabilities                         7.5           8.0         11.4        11.6      213.2
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                APPLICATION
                Gross Block                               9.7           9.8         11.7        12.9      148.4
                Less: Acc. Depreciation                   2.3           2.6          3.0         3.3         7.5
                Net Block                                 7.4           7.1          8.7         9.7      140.9
                Capital Work-in-Progress                     -             -         0.4            -      14.9
                Investments                                  -             -            -           -      31.2
                Current Assets                            3.3           4.0          5.5         5.5      141.0
                Inventories                               1.1           1.2          1.7         1.0       16.4
                Sundry Debtors                            0.8           1.1          1.0         2.4       71.5
                Cash and Bank                             0.3           0.4          1.2         0.6       27.1
                Loans and Advances                        1.1           1.2          1.7         1.4       25.9
                                      Prov
                Current Liabilities & Prov                3.1           3.1          3.1         3.5      117.1
                Current liabilities                       1.8           1.7          1.5         1.9      114.6
                Provisions                                1.3           1.3          1.6         1.6         2.5
                Net Current Assets                        0.1           0.9          2.4         1.9       23.9
                Misc Exp                                     -             -            -           -        2.2
                Total Assets
                 otal                                     7.5           8.0         11.4        11.6      213.2
               Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain
               printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via
               debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of
               company's results.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                   11
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Profit & Loss Account (Acquired Business Financials)
                Y/E Mar (Rs cr)                      FY2007           FY2008         FY2009         8MFY2010
                Advertising Revenue                    127.4            165.2           244.0             192.3
                Circulation Revenue                      88.3             97.3          105.1              81.7
                Others                                    1.9              2.5             3.6               2.5
                Net Sales                              217.6            264.9          352.7              276.5
                % chg                                        -            21.8           33.1                   -
                Other Income                              0.4              0.8             1.0               0.9
                Total Income                           218.0            265.8          353.7              277.5
                Increase/(Dec) in Invt                   (0.0)            (0.0)          (0.1)              (0.5)
                Raw Material Cost                      120.8            131.6           173.8             108.6
                Staff Costs                              31.4             34.8           46.4              33.4
                Operating and Other Exp                 73.8              87.6          119.1              78.4
                Total Expenditure                      225.9            253.9          339.3              219.9
                EBIDTA
                EBIDTA                                  (8.3)             11.0           13.4              56.6
                (% of Net Sales)                        (3.8)              4.2             3.8              20.5
                Depreciation& Amortisation                8.4              8.7           12.2              10.1
                Interest                                  1.3              1.6             5.1               2.8
                PBT                                    (17.6)              1.6           (3.0)             44.7
                (% of Net Sales)                        (8.1)              0.6           (0.8)              16.2
                Tax                                      (4.0)             1.6             1.1             13.5
                (% of PBT)                                   -                -               -             30.1
                Extraordinary Inc/ (Exp)                     -                -               -                 -
                         PA
                Reported PAT                           (13.6)             (0.1)          (4.0)             31.2
                % chg                                        -                -               -                 -
                (% of Net Sales)                        (6.3)             (0.0)          (1.1)              11.3
               Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain
               printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via
               debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of
               company's results.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                   12
Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note




               Balance Sheet (Acquired Business Financials)
                Y/E Mar (Rs cr)                     FY2007            FY2008         FY2009         8MFY2010
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Head Office Account                     48.4              63.9          126.9             143.2
                Total Liabilities                       48.4              63.9         126.9              143.2
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                APPLICATION
                Gross Block                             45.8              53.0          121.7             138.9
                Less: Acc. Depreciation                 20.7              26.0           33.9              44.7
                Net Block                               25.1              27.0           87.7              94.2
                Capital Work-in-Progress                  1.2              8.6           22.0              31.1
                Investments                                  -                -               -                 -
                Current Assets                          45.8              58.5           77.1              93.3
                Inventories                             10.9              16.7           17.4              20.7
                Sundry Debtors                          33.3              39.6           56.2              68.2
                Cash and Bank                             0.6              0.8             1.1               1.5
                Loans and Advances                        1.0              1.3             2.4               2.8
                Current Liabilities & Prov
                                      Prov              23.6              30.2           60.0              75.4
                Current liabilities                     23.6              30.2           60.0              75.4
                Provisions                                   -                -               -                 -
                Net Current Assets                      22.2              28.3           17.1              17.8
                Misc Exp                                     -                -               -                 -
                Total Assets                            48.4              63.9         126.9              143.2
               Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain
               printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via
               debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of
               company's results.




July 3, 2010                                                                                                   13
Hindustan Media Ventures




Disclaimer
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   Ratings (Returns) :                                    Buy (> 15%)                                                                Accumulate (5% to 15%)                                                          Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                                          Reduce (-5% to -15%)                                                       Sell (< -15%)

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
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Hindustan Media Ventures




         Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                  Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                           VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                                VP-Research, Banking                       vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo                                 Automobile                                 vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani                                Infrastructure, Real Estate                shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah                                     FMCG , Media                               anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek                                  Oil & Gas                                  deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha                                  Capital Goods, Engineering                 puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia                                 Pharmaceutical                             sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                  Cement, Power                              rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai                                    Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping           paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya                                 Fertiliser, Mid-cap                        sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni                                 Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap                    virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain                                    Metals & Mining                            pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane                                      Banking                                    amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda                                     Mid-cap                                    jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney                                Mid-cap                                    sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com

Amit Vora                                      Research Associate (Oil & Gas)             amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan                                   Research Associate (Cement, Power)         v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate                                 Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)    aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot                                    Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)   mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur                               Research Associate (FMCG, Media)           chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi                                    Research Associate (IT, Telecom)           vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain                                     Research Associate (Metals & Mining)       pooja.j@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                               Sr. Technical Analyst                      shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo                                 Technical Analyst                          vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                                Head - Derivatives                         siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal                                   Derivative Analyst                         jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com


Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                                 VP - Institutional Sales                   mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                                AVP - Institutional Sales                  abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan                                   Sr. Manager                                niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi                                    Sr. Manager                                pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir                                 Sr. Manager                                sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer                                    Sr. Manager                                ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora                                    Sr. Dealer                                 jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan                               Dealer                                     meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani                                 Dealer                                     gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com


Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                                Research Editor                            bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil                                   Production                                 bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel                                    Production                                 dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com

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Hindustan Media Ventures - IPO Note

  • 1. IPO Note | Media July 3, 2010 Hindustan Media Ventures SUBSCRIBE Issue Open: July 5, 2010 Venturing out Issue Close: July 7, 2010 Rationale for our Subscribe view Issue Details Regional print market poised for growth, Hindustan well placed to benefit: According Face Value: Rs10 to KPMG, the print landscape is dominated by regional newspapers. Moreover, Present Equity Capital: Rs57.1cr Hindi is the largest language in terms of penetration. With a cumulative readership base of 9.9mn (third largest daily newspaper in terms of readership) and a Post Issue Equity Capital: Rs72.6cr cumulative growth in Readership of 15.9% in the period between July 2006 and Issue size (amount): Rs270cr December 2009 (Source: IRS, R2 2007 to Q1 2010), we believe, Hindustan is well placed to benefit from the growth in the regional print market. Issue Price: Price Band of Rs162 - 175 No1 in Bihar/Jharkhand, fastest growing daily in UP: Hindustan has a firm presence UP: Promoters holding pre-issue: 98.9% in the key Hindi markets of Bihar and Jharkhand with a readership of 4.5mn and Promoters holding post-issue: 77.9% 1.4mn respectively and is the fastest growing Hindi daily in UP (the largest Hindi market in India) since its launch in the state in 2007. Hindustan was launched in UP with eight editions in Agra, Allahabad, Kanpur, Lucknow, Meerut, Varanasi, Book Building Bareilly and Dehradun and has since garnered a total Hindi daily readership share QIBs At least 60% of 21% (16% in 2007). Non-Institutional At least 10% Strong Infrastructure and synergies with promoter HT Media: Backed by Retail At least 30% 70-year history as an eminent Hindi daily, Hindustan has successfully ventured out of its traditional markets, expanding into new states and gaining market share in a relatively short time frame. The company is a part of the HT Media group, and Post Issue Shareholding Pattern derives significant leverage from the brand identity of Hindustan Times (2nd largest Promoters Group 98.9% English daily), and Mint (2nd largest business daily), in terms of both advertisement MF/Banks/Indian and sharing of content. FIs/FIIs/Public & Others 22.1% Outlook and Valuation For the full year FY2010 (including current 4 months financials and 8 months of financials of acquired business), Hindustan Media Ventures (HMVL) reported a top-line of Rs439cr and an earnings of Rs45.2cr. At the upper price band of Rs175, HMVL is trading at 16.2x FY2012E EPS of Rs10.8 which we believe is reasonable, given - 1) its high Earnings growth (31.8% CAGR during FY2010-12E), 2) rich parentage and group portfolio under HT Media, 3) strong position in the regional print markets and 4) proven execution skills. We have valued HMVL on basis of P/E multiple relative to its peers - Jagran Prakashan (JPL) and DB Corp. We have valued the stock at 18x FY2012E EPS (~10% discount to our target multiple of 20x for Jagran and DB Corp) and arrived at a fair value of Rs195 indicating a ~11% upside to the upper price band. Hence, we recommend Anand Shah a Subscribe view to the issue. +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 334 Email: anand.shah@angeltrade.com Kapur Chitrangda Kapur +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 323 Email: chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
  • 2. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Company Background HT Media Ventures (HMVL) is promoted by HT Media, an integrated multimedia company, which publishes, among others, leading dailies in India such as Hindustan Times and Mint. HT Media currently owns 98.85% of HMVL's equity share capital. HMVL has recently acquired HTML's Hindi business, which includes Hindustan, Nandan and Kadambini publications, certain printing facilities and personnel, from HT Media, pursuant to the Business Purchase Agreement dated November 16, 2009, as a going concern, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. HMVL is one of the leading print media companies in India, with its flagship brand Hindustan enjoying a Readership of 9.9mn readers (third largest Hindi daily). Hindustan is published in four editions and 113 sub-editions and is presently printed at 17 locations in the states/regions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Delhi NCR with a total installed rated capacity of ~0.78mn copies/hr. The company also publishes two Hindi magazines, Nandan, a children's magazine, and Kadambini, a general interest magazine. In addition to the Hindi publications, HMVL operates the website, www.livehindustan.com, which focuses on providing news in Hindi with regional content and have recently forayed into event management and customized event solutions. Exhibit 1: HMVL's business model HMVL Print Internet Events Hindustan Nandan www.livehindustan.com Hindustan Events Kadambini Source: Annual Report, RHP July 3, 2010 2
  • 3. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Issue Details HMVL is tapping the IPO market with an issue size of Rs270cr and a price band of Rs162-175 per equity share, thus resulting in a public issue of 1.67cr and 1.54cr equity shares of face value Rs10, resulting in a Promoter shareholding dilution of 23% and 21% at the lower and the upper price band, respectively. The company plans to use the IPO proceeds for expanding its presence in new markets and for the repayment of debts. HMVL plans to set up eight new publishing units for printing and publishing new editions of Hindustan and expects the same to be fully operational by end of fiscal 2012. Exhibit 2: Objects of the Issue Particulars Amount (Rs cr) Setting up new publishing units 66.0 Upgradation of existing plant & machinery 55.0 Repayment of loans 135.0 Genreal Corporate Purpose * Total 270.0 Source: Company, RHP Angel Research , Exhibit 3: Shareholder's pattern (Pre and Post Issue) Pre-Issue re-Issue Post-Issue ost-Issue Particulars No. of Shares % No. of Shares % Promoter HT Media 56,472,485 98.85 56,472,485 77.92 Promoter Group Ms. Namrata Bhartia 571,280 1.00 571,280 0.79 Public - - 15,428,571 21.29 Total 57,043,765 99.85 72,472,336 100.00 Source:Company, RHP Angel Research , Rationale for our recommendation Regional print market poised for growth, Hindustan well placed to benefit According to KPMG, the print landscape is dominated by regional newspapers which target population of ~1bn. Of more than 62,000 newspapers, 92% are published in Hindi and other vernacular languages. Also Hindi is the largest language in terms of penetration, of total population of India, followed by Marathi, Tamil, Telegu, Bengali and English. In terms of readership, for 2008-10, the Hindi print sector grew at a CAGR of 2.3% in pace with the total print sector growth, English Print, however, lagged a bit with 2.1% growth. Hindustan, garnering a 16% readership share of the total Hindi print market outpaced the sector growth, registering a CAGR of 3.7% over the same period. July 3, 2010 3
  • 4. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Exhibit 4: Hindustan growing at a faster rate v/s Hindi print sector Readership (mn) Publications 2008 R2 2009 R2 2010 Q1 CAGR (%) English Daily 16.19 17.06 16.88 2.11 (% of total) 10.3 10.5 10.3 Hindi Daily 56.15 57.57 58.7 2.25 (% of total) 35.9 35.5 35.8 Hindustan 9.21 9.34 9.91 3.73 (% of Hindi Daily) 16.4 16.2 16.9 Other Daily 93.31 97.91 98.58 2.79 (% of total) 59.6 60.4 60.2 Total 156.62 162.13 163.85 2.28 Source: Company, RHP IRS, Angel Research , Hindustan has a firm presence in the key hindi markets of Bihar and Jharkhand with a readership of 4.5mn and 1.4mn respectively and is the fastest growing Hindi daily in UP (the largest Hindi market in India) since its launch in the state in 2007. Hindustan was launched in UP with eight editions in Agra, Allahabad, Kanpur, Lucknow, Meerut, Varanasi, Bareilly and Dehradun and has since garnered a total hindi daily readership share of 21% (16% in 2007). Exhibit 5: Fastest growing daily in UP markets in terms of Readership 350 2007 R2 2009 R2 2010 Q1 300 250 (mn) 200 150 100 50 - Agra Allahabad Kanpur Lucknow Meerut Varanasi Bareilly Source: Company, Angel Research Hence, with a cumulative readership base of 9.9mn (third largest daily newspaper in terms of readership) and a cumulative growth in Readership of 15.9% in the period between July 2006 and December 2009 (Source: IRS, R2 2007 to Q1 2010), we believe, Hindustan is well placed to benefit from the growth in the regional print market. July 3, 2010 4
  • 5. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Exhibit 6: Readership vs. competitors in Bihar, Jharkhand and UP 14.0 12.8 12.6 12.2 12.4 12.0 10.0 8.4 8.0 7.9 7.9 (mn) 8.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.1 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 2007 R2 2008 R2 2009 R2 2010 Q1 Dainik Jagran Hindustan Amar Ujala Prabhat Khabar Source: Company, RHP IRS, Angel Research , Proven execution facility and strong infrastructure Backed by 70-year history as an eminent Hindi daily, Hindustan has successfully ven- tured out of its traditional markets, expanding into new states and gaining market share in a relatively short time frame. In April 2008, HMVL implemented its brand repositioning campaign, Tayyari, to meet the changing consumer needs and to en- sure growth and consolidation of its position in key markets through product re-inven- tion. The campaign which sought to attract a new and younger profile of target read- ers and to provide a diverse and interesting mix of news, analysis and entertainment, enabled HMVL to create a niche for Hindustan in the Hindi heartland. Exhibit 7: Hindustan grown to being third largest hindi newspaper from being sixth largest in 2004 (mn) 2003 R2# 2005 R2 2006 R2 2007 R2 2008 R2 2009 R2 2010 Q1 Dainik Jagran 16.40 19.17 18.19 16.50 16.29 16.10 16.31 Dainik Bhaskar 13.42 15.09 13.48 12.82 13.00 12.88 13.32 Hindustan 7.94 9.00 9.67 8.55 9.21 9.34 9.91 Malyalam Manorama 9.21 9.43 9.14 8.66 8.42 9.12 9.58 Amar Ujala 8.85 9.85 9.40 8.07 8.07 8.30 8.49 Daily Thanthi 9.15 10.56 9.32 7.91 7.68 7.52 7.35 The Times of India 7.10 7.29 6.92 6.83 6.71 7.14 7.04 Lokmat 7.28 8.87 7.69 6.70 6.63 7.10 7.36 Rajasthan Patrika 5.91 6.11 6.71 7.40 6.67 6.49 6.69 Ananda Bazar Patrika 5.12 6.23 6.85 6.86 6.68 6.47 6.53 Source: Company, RHP IRS, Angel Research; Note: # period from July 2003 to June 2004 , The company's broad geographic reach in key Hindi speaking markets, extending from Jharkhand in the east to Mohali in the north, provides it with a distinct competitive advantage, enabling it to offer audiences content that is increasingly di- verse and meet its advertiser's needs. Moreover, HMVL, being a part of the HT media group has long standing relationships with its advertisers (includes commercial, Government and quasi-Government departments) and leverages on the group's strength with various advertising agencies to facilitate sale of advertising space in its publications. July 3, 2010 5
  • 6. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Printing Presence in 17 locations and total installed capacity of ~0.78mn copies/hr HMVL owns all its printing facilities, save the three franchise facilities in Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur and Varanasai; and Delhi NCR and Mohali which are owned by the Promoter. Exhibit 8: Multi-state presence State No. of Installed No. of edition/ Prinitng facility capacity (copies/hr) sub editions printed UP & Delhi NCR 8 381,000 60 Bihar 4 222,000 29 Jharkhand 3 141,000 20 Uttarakhand 1 36,000 7 Total 16* 780,000 116** Source: Company, RHP Angel Research; Note: * Excludes HT media's printing facility at Mohali, ** , Excludes Delhi NCR edition of Hindustan in Mohali Synergies with promoter, HT Media The Company is a part of the HT Media group, and derive significant leverage from the brand identity of Hindustan Times (India's well recognized brands), and Mint (sec- ond largest business daily in terms of Readership), in terms of both advertisement and sharing of content. Further, the company has inked arrangement with its promoter to provide each other their respective existing infrastructure (HMVL is currently using HT Media's printing facility at Mohali) and other necessary amenities in their own operating geographies along with their respective printing facilities as well as to un- dertake the sale of advertisement space for and on behalf of each other. Common Management team, aware of group's philosophies and values HMVL has a strong management team. Both HMVL and HT Media share a common chairperson, one independent director, one non-executive director and the whole time director, thus drawing synergies as well as focus. Further, other key management personnel at HMVL were a part of HT Media for a long time, and hence, are aware of the group's philosophies and values. We believe, the relationship with HT Media will ensure HMVL access to national and international news which will help enhance edi- torial content of the newspaper. July 3, 2010 6
  • 7. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Financial Outlook HMVL has recently acquired HTML's Hindi business, certain printing facilities and personnel, from HT Media, pursuant to the Business Purchase Agreement dated November 16, 2009, as a going concern, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of company's results on a going-forward basis, as its results on a going-forward basis will include the consolidated results of the Acquired Business for full periods. For the full year FY2010 (including current 4 months financials and 8 months of financials of acquired business), HMVL reported a top-line of Rs439cr and an earnings of Rs45.2cr. During the period FY2010-12E, we expect HMVL to post a CAGR of 16.5% in revenues primarily backed by 20.6% CAGR in advertising revenues on account of improved traction in recent launches (launched 3 editions of UP in last 18 months), new edition launches (planning to launch 8 new editions over next two years), up-tick in advertising volumes (as segments like Auto, BFSI and Real estate recover) and rate hikes. In terms of circulation revenues, we have modeled in a 10% CAGR during the period primarily driven by strong growth in UP region even as we factor flat revenue from Bihar/Jharkhand region due to potential cover price cuts in the region to counter- attack new entrant DB Corp. Exhibit 9: Model 16.5% CAGR in revenue aided by 20.6% CAGR in Advt. Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Advertising Revenue 165.2 244.0 296.5 358.1 431.2 Circulation Revenue 97.3 105.1 120.8 130.0 146.2 Others 19.3 21.3 21.6 17.9 18.4 Total Sales 281.8 370.3 438.8 505.9 595.8 YoY Growth % Advertising Revenue 29.7 47.7 21.5 20.8 20.4 Circulation Revenue 10.1 8.0 15.0 7.6 12.5 Others 8.5 9.9 1.4 (17.2) 2.8 Total Sales 20.7 31.4 18.5 15.3 17.8 Total % of Total Advertising Revenue 58.6 65.9 67.6 70.8 72.4 Circulation Revenue 34.5 28.4 27.5 25.7 24.5 Others 6.9 5.7 4.9 3.5 3.1 Source: Company, RHP Angel Research , At the operating front, we have modeled in a 350bp expansion to 21.5% (18.5%) during FY2010-12E driving a robust 25.4% CAGR driven by benign newsprint cost (have modeled in 10-12% rise in newsprint prices over the period) and higher operat- ing leverage (traction in new launches and scale benefits). Hence, we expect earnings to register a robust CAGR of 31.8% CAGR during the period aided by robust Top-line growth, Margin expansion and lower interest costs (Rs135cr debt to be repaid from the IPO proceeds). July 3, 2010 7
  • 8. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Exhibit 10: Earnings to grow at 31.8% CAGR over FY2010-12E 100.0 Net Profit (LHS) OPM (%) 25.0 78.5 20.0 80.0 61.8 15.0 60.0 (Rs cr) 45.2 10.0 40.0 5.0 20.0 - - (5.0) (0.1) (4.0) (20.0) (13.6) (10.0) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Source: Company, Angel Research July 3, 2010 8
  • 9. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Valuation At the upper price band of Rs175, HMVL is trading at 16.2x FY2012E EPS of Rs10.8 which we believe is reasonable, given - 1) its high Earnings growth (31.8% CAGR during FY2010-12E), 2) rich parentage and group portfolio under HT Media, 3) strong position in the regional print markets (fastest growing daily in the largest Hindi market of UP) and 4) proven execution skills. Exhibit 11: Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 370 439 506 596 % chg 31.4 18.5 15.3 17.8 Profit Net Profit (3.8) 45.2 61.8 78.5 % chg 0.0 0.0 36.7 27.0 OPM (%) 3.8 18.5 19.9 21.5 EPS (Rs) (0.5) 6.2 8.5 10.8 P/E (x) - 28.1 20.5 16.2 P/BV (x) - 6.7 5.2 4.2 RoE (%) - 42.4 15.2 16.2 RoCE (%) - 27.2 20.6 21.9 EV/Sales (x) - 3.1 2.4 2.1 EV/EBITDA (x) - 17.0 12.0 9.6 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Based on upper price band of Rs175 We have valued HMVL on basis of P/E multiple relative to its peers - Jagran Prakashan (JPL) and DB Corp. We have valued the stock at 18x FY2012E EPS (~10% discount to our target multiple of 20x for Jagran and DB Corp) and arrived at a fair value of Rs195 indicating a ~11% upside to the upper price band. Hence, we recommend a Subscribe view to the issue. Exhibit 12: HMVL priced attractively vis-à-vis its peers given higher earnings growth Company CMP Mkt Cap EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%) CAGR (FY10-12) CAGR (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales PAT DB Corp 239 4,333 12.7 14.7 18.9 16.2 28.2 26.3 12.5 17.8 Jagran Prak 125 3,757 6.6 7.9 19.0 15.8 31.0 34.3 15.7 16.2 HMVL 175 1,270 8.5 10.8 20.5 16.2 15.2 16.2 16.5 31.8 Source: Company, Angel Research K ey risks to our recommendation include: 1) Slowdown in GDP growth, 2) volatility in newsprint prices, 3) Rupee depreciation, and 4) Increase in competitive intensity particularly in Bihar/Jharkhand. July 3, 2010 9
  • 10. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Profit & Loss Account (Historical Financials) Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Advertising Revenue - - - - 104.2 Circulation Revenue - - - - 39.0 Others 15.4 15.9 16.8 17.6 19.1 Net Sales 15.4 15.9 16.8 17.6 162.3 % chg - 3.5 5.7 4.8 - Other Income 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.7 Total Income 15.5 16.0 16.9 17.7 167.0 Increase/(Dec) in Invt 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.5 Raw Material Cost 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7 64.2 Staff Costs 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.6 23.3 Operating and Other Exp 7.0 6.4 7.1 7.8 49.7 Total Expenditure 15.1 15.2 16.0 17.1 137.7 EBIDTA EBIDTA 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.5 24.6 (% of Net Sales) 1.8 4.7 4.6 2.9 15.2 Depreciation& Amortisation 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.6 Interest - - - - 3.7 PBT (0.1) 0.5 0.5 0.3 21.0 (% of Net Sales) (0.5) 3.1 2.9 1.6 12.9 Tax 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.0 (% of PBT) (49.3) 28.7 41.9 30.7 33.2 Extraordinary Inc/ (Exp) - - - - - PA Reported PAT (0.1) 0.4 0.3 0.2 14.0 % chg 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - (% of Net Sales) (0.7) 2.2 1.7 1.1 8.6 Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of company's results. July 3, 2010 10
  • 11. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Balance Sheet (Historical Financials) Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 57.1 Share Application Money - - 3.0 - - Reserves & Surplus 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 18.3 Funds Shareholder's Funds 7.4 7.8 11.1 11.3 75.4 Total Debt - - - - 135.0 Deferred Tax Liabilities (Net) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.8 Total Liabilities 7.5 8.0 11.4 11.6 213.2 APPLICATION OF FUNDS APPLICATION Gross Block 9.7 9.8 11.7 12.9 148.4 Less: Acc. Depreciation 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3 7.5 Net Block 7.4 7.1 8.7 9.7 140.9 Capital Work-in-Progress - - 0.4 - 14.9 Investments - - - - 31.2 Current Assets 3.3 4.0 5.5 5.5 141.0 Inventories 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.0 16.4 Sundry Debtors 0.8 1.1 1.0 2.4 71.5 Cash and Bank 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.6 27.1 Loans and Advances 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.4 25.9 Prov Current Liabilities & Prov 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.5 117.1 Current liabilities 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 114.6 Provisions 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.5 Net Current Assets 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.9 23.9 Misc Exp - - - - 2.2 Total Assets otal 7.5 8.0 11.4 11.6 213.2 Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of company's results. July 3, 2010 11
  • 12. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Profit & Loss Account (Acquired Business Financials) Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 8MFY2010 Advertising Revenue 127.4 165.2 244.0 192.3 Circulation Revenue 88.3 97.3 105.1 81.7 Others 1.9 2.5 3.6 2.5 Net Sales 217.6 264.9 352.7 276.5 % chg - 21.8 33.1 - Other Income 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 Total Income 218.0 265.8 353.7 277.5 Increase/(Dec) in Invt (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.5) Raw Material Cost 120.8 131.6 173.8 108.6 Staff Costs 31.4 34.8 46.4 33.4 Operating and Other Exp 73.8 87.6 119.1 78.4 Total Expenditure 225.9 253.9 339.3 219.9 EBIDTA EBIDTA (8.3) 11.0 13.4 56.6 (% of Net Sales) (3.8) 4.2 3.8 20.5 Depreciation& Amortisation 8.4 8.7 12.2 10.1 Interest 1.3 1.6 5.1 2.8 PBT (17.6) 1.6 (3.0) 44.7 (% of Net Sales) (8.1) 0.6 (0.8) 16.2 Tax (4.0) 1.6 1.1 13.5 (% of PBT) - - - 30.1 Extraordinary Inc/ (Exp) - - - - PA Reported PAT (13.6) (0.1) (4.0) 31.2 % chg - - - - (% of Net Sales) (6.3) (0.0) (1.1) 11.3 Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of company's results. July 3, 2010 12
  • 13. Hindustan Media Ventures | IPO Note Balance Sheet (Acquired Business Financials) Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 8MFY2010 SOURCES OF FUNDS Head Office Account 48.4 63.9 126.9 143.2 Total Liabilities 48.4 63.9 126.9 143.2 APPLICATION OF FUNDS APPLICATION Gross Block 45.8 53.0 121.7 138.9 Less: Acc. Depreciation 20.7 26.0 33.9 44.7 Net Block 25.1 27.0 87.7 94.2 Capital Work-in-Progress 1.2 8.6 22.0 31.1 Investments - - - - Current Assets 45.8 58.5 77.1 93.3 Inventories 10.9 16.7 17.4 20.7 Sundry Debtors 33.3 39.6 56.2 68.2 Cash and Bank 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 Loans and Advances 1.0 1.3 2.4 2.8 Current Liabilities & Prov Prov 23.6 30.2 60.0 75.4 Current liabilities 23.6 30.2 60.0 75.4 Provisions - - - - Net Current Assets 22.2 28.3 17.1 17.8 Misc Exp - - - - Total Assets 48.4 63.9 126.9 143.2 Note: Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL) has recently acquired HT Media's Hindi business, certain printing facilities and personnel, on a slump sale basis for a consideration of Rs1.4bn (funded via debt), with effect from December 1, 2009. Hence, the historical financials will not be indicative of company's results. July 3, 2010 13
  • 14. Hindustan Media Ventures Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%) Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
  • 15. Hindustan Media Ventures Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com