Tốc độ tăng trưởng nhanh, cơ hội và thách thức trong ngành logistics ở Việt Nam. Báo cáo từ World bank

1. Rapid growth,
Challenges and opportunities
inVietnam’s logistics
limited connectivity
Luis C. Blancas
Transport & Logistics Specialist
TheWorld Bank

2. Agenda
1. Context
2. Demand-side considerations
3. Supply-side considerations
6. Selected public-sector interventions to improve Vietnam’s logistics performance
4. Vietnam’s logistics costs and performance
5. Most pressing logistics challenges contributing to Vietnam’s logistics costs

3. Agenda
1. Context
2. Demand-side considerations
3. Supply-side considerations
6. Selected public-sector interventions to improve Vietnam’s logistics performance
4. Vietnam’s logistics costs and performance
5. Most pressing logistics challenges contributing to Vietnam’s logistics costs

4. 1 When logistics costs are measured at a national (rather than firm- or product-) level, they also include shippers’ internal management costs associated with
logistics activities, such as IT systems and staff time (e.g., traffic management, planning, analysis, senior management).
Source: MergeGlobal, World Bank analysis
“Logistics” can be defined as the transport-sensitive portion of a
product’s landed cost
Shipper’s Product-specific Landed Cost
Total Logistics Costs1
 Logistics analysis emphasizes the tradeoff between
transport-related vs. inventory-related costs
(transport cost vs. speed)
 Transport-related costs refer to the costs of
operating a private fleet or any charges (e.g., base
rates, fuel surcharges) incurred by a shipper from
transport carriers (asset- and non-asset based)
 Inventory costs refer to the cost of keeping goods
on-hand or in-transit; these can be associated with
tied-up resources (i.e., capital costs), shrinkage,
obsolescence, insurance, and warehousing/handling
(including value-added services)
 Shippers’ transport and warehousing administration
costs (e.g., IT systems, personnel) may complement
the logistics costs calculation
Key points
Transportation Service
Greater Speed & Reliability
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
UnitCostPerKilo
Minimum
TLC
Air
Inventory-Related Cost
Transport-Related Cost
ExpeditedStandard
Ocean
Key Logistics Costs Tradeoff Concept CONCEPTUAL
Total Logistics
Costs
Manufacturing and
Sourcing Cost
Trade-related Costs
(e.g., tariffs, border
inspection fees, etc.)
= International shipments only
Warehouse
Inventory Cost
In-transit
Inventory Cost
Transport Cost

5. The Southeast and Mekong River Delta regions, with metro HCMC as
focal point, comprise the largest (and increasingly best-connected)
economic pole in the country
The Disproportionate Relevance of the Southeast and MRD
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam Seaports Association, VietNamNet Bridge, World Bank analysis
Key Points
 The Mekong Delta and greater
HCMC area are the primary
source of economic activity in
Vietnam and the country’s most
transport/logistics-intense
region on a per-capita basis
 It is therefore sensible to focus
on this region when analyzing
challenges and opportunities for
improving logistics
competitiveness in Vietnam
Region’s share of Vietnam’s total:
36%
42%
46%
Population Enterprises'
fixed assets
at year-end
Enterprises Industrial
output
Seaport
container
throughput
62%
71%
Population Enterprises'
fixed assets
at year-end
Enterprises Industrial
output
Seaport
container
throughput
23% 27% 30%
25% 24%
Red River Delta
Southeast and
Mekong River Delta

6. Agenda
1. Context
2. Demand-side considerations
3. Supply-side considerations
6. Selected public-sector interventions to improve Vietnam’s logistics performance
4. Vietnam’s logistics costs and performance
5. Most pressing logistics challenges contributing to Vietnam’s logistics costs

7. Vietnam’s 20 years of sustained, rapid economic growth have
generated increasing levels of transport and logistics demand
7.4%
14.7%
27.2%
Vietnam: Average annual growth in economic
activity and transport demand
Long-term: 1990-2010 Recent: 2001-2008
11.3% 11.4%
15.3%
7.7%
Tonnage
3PL industry1 believed
to have grown at about
20% during this period
1 Defined as domestic and international transport management, warehousing, and distribution (including value-added services).
Source: IMF, VietNamNet Bridge, Delegation of German Industry and Commerce in Vietnam, VIWA, VINAMARINE, World Bank analysis
Key Points
 Vietnam’s long history of fast growth
has led to rapidly increasing levels of
transport demand, which have put a
strain on limited resources
 As transport demand has grown, its
composition has also shifted towards
the need to meet increasingly complex
(e.g., time-definite) itineraries
 To date, Vietnam’s transport and
logistics system has been able to
accommodate fast growth despite
limited connectivity
 But as complexity rises, its ability to
continue to do so will gradually diminish
unless service levels increase: this is
the most pressing challenge facing
Vietnam’s logistics system today
IWT Coastal
shipping
Road
transport
GDPGDP Export
volume
Seaport
containers

8. On a tonnage basis, Vietnam’s freight transport is dominated by
two modes: IWT and the roads sector; coastal shipping is also
important on a ton-km basis
Vietnam: Interprovincial freight transport by mode,
2008 and 2030
Source: VITRANSS-2, World Bank analysis
Key Points
 IWT and the roads sector together
account for 90%+ of Vietnam’s current
freight tonnage and 68% of its ton-km; any
attempt at improving logistics
competitiveness must address these
sectors as a priority
 Coastal shipping is also important on a
ton-km basis, a metric that better captures
modal transport intensity (since coastal
shipping lengths of haul are much longer
than those of IWT and the roads sector)
 Long-term (through 2030), the roads
sector is expected to continue growing
faster than both IWT and coastal shipping
(as it has over the past 8-10 years), and
will therefore continue to gain share in the
freight market
 The Mekong River Delta region is more
IWT-intensive than any other Vietnamese
region, which should also guide prioritizing
efforts for that mode
IWT
48% Roads
45%
Coastal 4%
Rail 2%Air 0.02%
IWT
35%
Roads
57%
Coastal 3%
Rail 4%Air 0.03%
2008 2030
On a tonnage basis
IWT
31%
Roads
37%
Coastal
29%
Rail 4%Air 0.1%
IWT
20%
Roads
53%
17%
Rail 10%Air 0.2%
2008 2030
On a ton-km basis
Coastal

9. 78% of Vietnam’s freight flows comprise low-value bulk commodities
whose commercialization is less dependent on reliable, high-
performance logistics services than manufactures and food products
are… but this is quickly changing
1 This also includes a catch-all “all other” category with anything not falling into the bulk, manufactured goods, fishery, and animal products categories.
2 Rice, sugarcane/sugar, wood, steel, construction materials, cement, fertilizer, coal, petroleum, and industrial crops.
3 Including import, export, and domestic flows.
Source: VITRANSS-2, VINAMARINE, VIWA, World Bank analysis
Key Points
 The commodity composition of
Vietnam’s freight flows, heavily
concentrated in bulk commodities,
has so far allowed the country to
maintain high economic growth
rates on the back of a transport and
logistics sector that competes on
price rather than service levels (as
bulk commodities are highly
sensitive to transport costs)
 This picture is quickly changing
as Vietnam becomes more
manufacturing-intensive and as it
trades in and consumes products
with higher value-added content;
indeed, containerized trade has
been growing faster than bulk
trade for several years
Vietnam’s Interprovincial freight flows by major commodity
type, 2008
78%
22%
Manufactured goods,
fishery and animal
products1
Bulk commodities2
Vietnam’s 2001-2008 average annual growth rate for:
Tonnage: all
commodities
Containers
12%
21%
1.7x
Seaport volumes3 Inter-provincial freight
IWT
tonnage
Road
tonnage
11%
15%
1.4x

10. Agenda
1. Context
2. Demand-side considerations
3. Supply-side considerations
6. Selected public-sector interventions to improve Vietnam’s logistics performance
4. Vietnam’s logistics costs and performance
5. Most pressing logistics challenges contributing to Vietnam’s logistics costs

11. On the supply side, both the roads and the IWT sectors appear to be
plagued by overcapacity, while coastal shipping is challenged by limited
competition; in all cases service levels have suffered as a result
Source: VITRANSS, VITRANSS-2, VIWA, Vietnam Register, World Bank analysis
Key Points
 Although no definitive fleet growth numbers
exist, a large equitization process has
taken place in Vietnam’s trucking sector
(90%+ of trucks now owned by privately-
run enterprises). Such process is believed
to have led to sizable fleet growth as
barriers to entry have come down, as well
as to a pronounced reduction in the
average fleet size (estimated at 2-5
vehicles). Both of these trends have led
to poor service levels
 In IWT, capacity (on a tonnage basis) has
grown faster than demand for a number of
years, and a similar (though not as
pronounced) privatization process as that
of the roads sector has taken place
 In coastal shipping, SOE VINALINES
controls 60% of the fleet by tonnage and is
the sole provider of scheduled container
services linking Hanoi and HCMC; this
also impacts rates and service levels
Vietnam: Recent supply indicators for 3 main freight
transport modes
11.3%
22.4%
IWT
Tonnage
Transported
(2001-2008)
IWT fleet
tonnage
capacity
(2000-2010)
IWT: Demand and supply
growth trends
Ownership of road freight
vehicles: 2005
Private
92%
State 4%
JV 4%
Coastal shipping tonnage capacity ownership, 2009
60%
40%
All other
carriers
VINALINES
VINALINES only
company offering
regularly scheduled
container services

12. Little is known for certain about the capacity level, growth trends, and
service quality of Vietnam’s warehousing/distribution industry, but
there appears to be a consensus that more—and more diversified
(e.g., specialized)—services are needed
1 Vietnam Freight Forwarders Association.
Source: VITRANSS, VITRANSS-2, VIWA, Vietnam Register, World Bank analysis
Selected commentary on warehousing/handling industry from recent reports
Comment Report
“A critical aspect [in lifting logistics competitiveness] is the improvement of
warehouses and warehouse services.”
WB-commissioned
IWT study, 2010
“Warehousing services are usually limited to the provision of simple
storage, and very little short-transit dispatching operation involves
processing, value-adding and piece-picking operations.”
WB Trade and Transport
Facilitation Assessment
(early draft), 2010
“Expansion in supporting infrastructure, mainly ports and highways (as well
as airports and warehousing capacity too) is expected to cope with
[increased] trade flows.”
WB Trade and Transport
Facilitation Assessment
(early draft), 2010
“Cold chain storage will be increasingly relevant for high-valued agriculture
products, suggesting the need to expand the current capacity of specialized
warehousing facilities.”
WB Trade and Transport
Facilitation Assessment
(early draft), 2010
“Key logistics [interventions] for 2011-2020 include . . . diversifying the
development of distribution centers in big cities across the country to serve retail
markets and logistics centers near industrial and processing export zones.”
VIFFAS1 interview to
Vietnam Business
Forum Magazine

13. More generally, the 3PL industry1, while growing fast (~20%), appears
to be fragmented; the average provider has remarkably limited
financial resources for expansion and modernization
1 Defined as domestic and international freight forwarding, warehousing/distribution, cargo handling, and dedicated contract carriage.
Source: Vietnam Freight Forwarders Association, World Bank analysis
Vietnam’s 3PL industry: some data
Active Vietnamese 3PLs (2007):
'94-'97 '97-'00 '00-'03 '03-'07 '07-'10 '11-'13
VIFFAS membership
7 18
41
60
140
160
Historical
Forecast
Average annual
growth rate
21%
80%
20%
Entirely
privately
held
Partially or entirely
publicly held
~1,000 active firms
 Average capital of
US$18,750 – US$31,250
[compared to ~US$100,000
for all companies]
 Limited staffing
 Lack of office presence
outside the country
 Vietnam’s 3PL industry is growing fast
(both revenue-wise and in terms of
active firms), particularly in the South
 The majority of Vietnamese 3PLs are
small-scale providers
 Even though 3PLs (as a class) tend to
be less capital-intensive than asset-
based transport carriers, the IT
systems and carrier relationships
(e.g., minimum volume commitments)
on which many 3PL businesses
depend do require access to capital
and increase the industry’s fixed costs
 Lack of access to capital is thus a
major constrain for Vietnam’s 3PL
firms to be able to provide higher-level
services; this is a key reason why
facilitating the entry of global
players (both standalone and on a
JV-basis) is critical
Key Points

14. As of
year-end 2008
Confirmed as of
year-end 2012
Projected as of
year-end 2015
A wave of deep-water container handling capacity is arriving in South
Vietnam; it will require inland infrastructure to match it—and enough
volume to make projects financially viable
Source: Port websites, trade journals, World Bank analysis and research
Key Points
 South Vietnam, the Mekong Delta region, and
beyond (e.g., Cambodia) are set to benefit from
deep-water capacity that is being constructed
for the first time in Vietnam
 Delivered and planned capacity additions are
massive: by the end of 2015 South Vietnam’s
container handling capacity will have
quadrupled relative to 2008
 From a logistics competitiveness perspective,
the implication is that intercontinental itineraries
can save as much as 5-6 days en-route and as
much as US$240 per TEU in transport and
other charges, on top of commodity-specific
inventory carrying cost savings and expected
lower ocean linehaul transport costs due to the
economies of vessel size
 The challenge will be to provide the new
terminals with efficient inland connections
(roads, IW) and cargo and equipment
handling/storage/repair facilities; current lack
of connectivity has contributed to very low
utilization rates (~18% at present)
4.0
11.1
16.0
South Vietnam Seaport Handling Capacity: Historical
and Projected (based on committed plans)
Millions of TEU per year
2.8x
4.0x
US$30-60
Sample export transshipment rates per TEU:
HCMC  Singapore transport rate
US$160-180 Singapore  HCMC transport rate
US$60 Port of Singapore unloading charge
Today
More than half of
Singapore’s 2011
throughput
100% 43%
57%
34%
66%
34%
66%Deep-water
Limited draft

15. While container terminals serving the Hanoi area in North Vietnam
register much higher utilization levels than those of Southern ports,
over-capacity could be a challenge in the medium term
Source: World Bank analysis based on input from Vietnam Port Association, interviews with port operators, and Liner Research Service.
Key Points
 Based on projected annual growth
of eight percent to nine percent in
the 2013-2020 period, the existing
terminal capacity in the northern
region will be insufficient to meet
market demand by 2018
 However, new terminal capacity is
planned, which could result in
over-supply
 GoV will need to regulate
development of new capacity to
ensure that demand and supply
is properly matched
North Vietnam Seaport Handling Capacity: Historical and
Projected (based on committed plans)

16. And despite sustained growth, provision of basic infrastructure, such
as roads, remains a challenge in some sectors
Source: MTRR, VIFFAS, VietNamNet, World Bank analysis
Key Points
 Low (relative to global benchmarks)
effective truck speeds and low gross
vehicle weight and height limits for
freight vehicles in highways increase
cost-to-serve and lead to myriad delays
 The challenge is that many such limits
cannot be relaxed without the
renovation and strict maintenance of
highway, bridge, and road assets
 Road traffic regulations may also need
to be updated in order to reduce any
gaps that lead to subjective
interpretation by police officers and
other authorities; a more transparent,
predictable approach to checkups and
inspections would also help
Selected Road Sector Indicators
20-60 km/h
Range of effective truck speed in highways
(with average closer to 40-50 km/h)
“Tea money”
Unpredictable roadside inspections are a
common occurrence with little clarity on
rules
40 tons
Maximum gross weight allowed for trucks
in some key roads and bridges, when 80%
of import containerloads weigh 20-30 tons
(bringing total vehicle weight to 36-45
tons). Access to special permits is costly,
and enforcement of this rule has also led to
informal payments by carriers
4.35 m
Maximum freight vehicle height allowed in
some sections (virtually the same as that of
a high-cube container on chassis—lack of
a margin of tolerance leads to inspections
and further delays)

17. Agenda
1. Context
2. Demand-side considerations
3. Supply-side considerations
6. Selected public-sector interventions to improve Vietnam’s logistics performance
4. Vietnam’s logistics costs and performance
5. Most pressing logistics challenges contributing to Vietnam’s logistics costs

18. Although they haven’t been comprehensively measured, Vietnam’s
logistics costs are estimated to be high relative to both developed
economies and key regional peers; this is a direct result of the
demand and supply trends just discussed
Source: CSCMP, Lauri Ojala (2010) “Towards a unified methodology in logistics cost measurement”, World Bank analysis and research
Recent “Estimates” of Vietnam’s Logistics Costs
as a Percentage of GDP
Estimate Source
20%-25% VITRANSS-2
15%-20% Multimodal Transport Regulatory Review
“In the range
of 25%”
World Bank Trade and Transport Facilitation
Assessment (Unpublished Draft)
Logistics Costs as a % of GDP
U.S.
(avg.
'00-'10)
Europe
(2005-2008)
Mexico
(2008)
World
(2002)
China
(2004)
Vietnam
?
9.2%
12.0%
13.5% 13.8%
21.3%
25%
15%
Other indicators of relative logistics performance
World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI): 2010
1 = worst, 5 = best possible
Germany U.S. China
(mainland)
Thailand Brazil Vietnam
World Economic Forum Enabling Trade Index: 2009
1 = worst, 7 = best possible
Germany U.S. China
(mainland)
Thailand Brazil Vietnam
4.11
3.86
3.49
3.29 3.20
2.96
5.24
5.02
4.19 4.18
3.58 3.54

19. Recent World Bank research suggests that the transport component
of Vietnam’s logistics costs is competitive—key opportunities for
improvement lie in reducing inventory carrying costs associated with
itineraries in and out of Vietnam
Import and Export Supply Chain Cost Comparison with Peer Asian Countries
Import - Estimated Transport and Documentation Cost per FEU at Origin From Busan, Korea in US$
Country Origin Cost Ocean Freight Total
Over/Under Vietnam’s
Landed Cost per FEU
Vietnam $515 $500 $1,015
China $707 $300 $1,007 ($8)
Indonesia $595 $700 $1,295 $280
Estimated Transport and Documentation Cost per FEU in Los Angeles, California in US$
Country Origin Cost
Ocean Freight w/
Bunker Total
Over/Under Vietnam’s
Landed Cost per FEU
Vietnam $572 $1,960 $2,532
China $774 $1,850 $2,624 $92
Indonesia $637 $2,100 $2,737 $205
Source: World Bank analysis and research
Annual Interest Costs on Extra Inventory due to Import-Export Clearance Delays, as borne by BCOs
Interest Cost on Extra Inventory Due
to Clearance Delays
Amounts in US$ Millions
2012 2015 2020
Imports $47 $58 $87
Exports $50 $63 $95
Total Inventory Carrying Cost $96 $121 $182

20. Yet, Vietnam’s logistics system is improving, compares well to a
number of peers, and has been able to consistently deliver fast growth,
thus contributing to global manufacturing market share gains…
Source: World Bank analysis and estimates
Vietnam’s LPI Score Improvement: 2007 vs. 2010
2007 2010
2.89
2.96
D = 2.4%
Top 5 LPI scores among “Low-Income Countries”: 2010
Vietnam Senegal Uganda Uzbekistan Benin
2.96
2.86
2.82
2.79 2.79
Notable Regional LPI Benchmarks for Vietnam: 2010
Vietnam Indonesia Lao PDR Cambodia Myanmar
2.96
2.79
2.46
2.37 2.33
Key Points
 Looked at from a more global perspective,
Vietnam’s recent logistics performance is
notable:
o The country improved its LPI score
by 2.4% from 2007 to 2010, at a time
of high unpredictability in freight
markets
o In 2010 it was ranked by the WB LPI
as the top performer among
countries classified as “low income”
o Vietnam also LPI-outperforms a
number of Southeast Asia neighbors,
notably Indonesia (by a hefty margin)
 These benchmarks reflect the country’s
ability to deliver double-digit (closer to 20%
than to 10%) growth in logistics activity for
many years; they also indirectly reflect
Vietnam’s privileged geographic position
relative to the main regional and
intercontinental shipping lanes, and
attractive labor and energy costs

21. …as in the case of Vietnamese footwear exports to the U.S., just to
cite one example:
Source: MergeGlobal, UN Comtrade, World Bank analysis
8%
Footwear’s share of total
Vietnamese exports in 2008 3rd Footwear’s rank in Vietnam’s top exports in 2008, after
Petroleum(18%) and textiles/apparel/accessories (17%)
42% Share of Nike’s global production located in Vietnam

22. Agenda
1. Context
2. Demand-side considerations
3. Supply-side considerations
6. Selected public-sector interventions to improve Vietnam’s logistics performance
4. Vietnam’s logistics costs and performance
5. Most pressing logistics challenges contributing to Vietnam’s logistics costs

23. The World Bank recently conducted in-depth interviews with 73
logistics stakeholders (shippers and service providers), industry
groups, and public officials in Vietnam to better understand their views
on what drives logistics costs and trade competitiveness
Source: World Bank
 25 international beneficial cargo owners (BCOs)
 2 domestic BCOs
 4 Vietnamese apparel and footwear factories
 11 international Logistics Service Providers (LSPs)
 4 container shipping carriers
 15 Marine Terminal Operators (MTOs)
 4 Vietnamese trucking companies
 4 trade associations
 4 GoV agencies

24. Results revealed that the five most pressing challenges to increase
logistics competitiveness, from the perspective of the stakeholders
interviewed, are the following:
Source: World Bank analysis
Government regulations are cumbersome and not easily understood; and there is inconsistent
interpretation, implementation, and enforcement of government regulations across provinces and among
government officials. This results in import and export customs clearance taking longer than in peer
countries, redundant inventory in BCO supply chains, and higher administrative costs for BCOs and LSPs.
1
Facilitation payments (“tea” money) to Customs and police officials are needed to keep imported and
exported components, raw materials and finished goods moving through supply chains with minimal delays.
This inflates logistics costs for customs clearance, customs brokerage, cargo inspections, and trucking.
2
Transportation infrastructure projects are planned and executed without employing a strategic, multimodal
corridor approach. This has led to:
3
a. The port and marine terminal system is highly fragmented quantity has been emphasized over quality;
b. Completion dates for highway projects needed to support port developments are often delayed, which is a major
contributor to highway congestion;
c. Connector roads between highways and ports and Inland Container Depots (ICDs) are inadequate, which is also a
prime contributor to highway congestion; and
d. Rail is not a meaningful mode of transport for freight.
A fragmented trucking industry delivers sub-standard service to BCOs relative to peer countries.4
New deep water marine terminals at Cai Mep-Thi Vai are under-utilized and lack critical mass to serve as
transshipment centers, and the containerized ocean carriers serving them need continued GoV support
and fee discounts.
5

25. Agenda
1. Context
2. Demand-side considerations
3. Supply-side considerations
6. Selected public-sector interventions to improve Vietnam’s logistics performance
4. Vietnam’s logistics costs and performance
5. Most pressing logistics challenges contributing to Vietnam’s logistics costs

26. Over the past 10-15 years Vietnamese logistics have delivered fast
growth with reliability limitations; these are selected public-sector
interventions that can enhance reliability in a higher-value-added
trade environment1:
1 List is by no means exhaustive and is only provided for the purposes of discussion.
Source: MTRR, World Bank analysis
Sector Intervention
Intermodal Define strategic “logistics corridors” in the North and South where infrastructure quality and
regulatory provisions (e.g., vehicle weight, speed, and dimensions limits) are such that high-
cube containers can flow with minimal unnecessary delays
Deep-water ports
Improve hinterland connections with better and higher-capacity road and IWT access in the
short term (road access should also be extended to Distribution Centers added or relocated
to the Cai Mep and Haiphong/Lach Huyen areas); consider the possibility of rail links and on-
dock rail facilities in the long term
Logistics
management
Devise ways for the public and private sectors to collaborate in two key aspects of logistics
management: (1) the formulation of public policies for the sector and (2) generating better
awareness, among private- and state-owned firms alike, of the benefit-cost tradeoffs
associated with modal and supply chain design choices
3PLs Further liberalize the market to facilitate (1) entrance of international players, (2)
collaboration and knowledge transfer between international and domestic players, and (3)
ease of doing business for existing or prospective providers that want to engage shippers
across a wide variety of modes and service types
Trucking Promote a more sustainable supply-demand balance by introducing a safety and overloading
compliance-rating system for carriers and by providing better access to credit for fleet
expansion/modernization; truck emissions regulation should also be gradually phased in
Customs Re-double efforts to fully automate the e-commerce system by 2014 as planned. Extend
paperless customs to all BCOs, when currently only selected BCOs may have access to this

27. Q&AThank you