1. ESTIMATING MARKET
SHARE
Through Traffic Analysis
Dr. Asoka Korale, C.Eng. MIET

2. What is Market Share
 Based on
 what the Telecom Regulatory Commission says
 Subscribers
 Revenues
 Traffic

3. Require Objective Method
 Telecom Regulatory Commission – as reported by operators
 Subscribers
 Defined in terms of revenue generating base –
 Based on window in time over which subscribers are active
 large variation depending on selected time interval
 Revenues
 From published accounts where available
 Traffic – Contribution of each operator to total traffic produced
 Intra (on net)/Inter (off net) operator call volumes and aggregate
minutes of use

4. Traffic Based Estimate
 Use known intra and inter operator traffic volume
measurements
 Express each operator’s traffic contribution in terms of known
intra net traffic volume contribution
 Amount of traffic produced proportional to subscriber base
 No direct dependence on composition of the base (pre / post paid),
time windows or subscribers (can be related to subscribers if
necessary)
 As market share is expressed as a proportion of known (Dialog)
traffic no impact of variation in RGB during different time windows
 Predict corresponding subscriber shares of other operators utilizing
own (Dialog) RGB and each operator’s estimated market share
 Another view of market share - the proportion that each
operator contributes to total traffic generated

5. Assumptions
 All subscribers are uniform across all of the networks, and they are
all equally likely to make a call to any other subscriber in any
network.
 Under this assumption of uniformity all subscribers are also equally
likely to receive a call from any other subscriber in any network.
 The number of calls (traffic) originated by a particular network is
directly proportional to the number of subscribers belonging to that
network.
 The number of calls “attracted” to (terminated) in a particular
network is also directly proportional to the number of subscribers
belonging to that network.
 All subscribers are not uniform as they generate traffic according to their
specific packages and prepaid/ post paid segment
 Adjust for effect of differing tariffs and impact on generated traffic

6. Total subscribers
10,000
Airtel-
500
Mobitel-
2000
Tigo-750
Hutch-
750
Dialog -
6000
Total calls
1000
600
30
120
45
45
1000/10000 *6000 600/10000*6000
600/10000*4000
360
240
240/4000*500
240/4000*2000
240/4000*750
240/4000*750
50
200
75
75
1000/10000 *2000
1000/10000 *500
1000/10000 *750
1000/10000 *750

7. Example Network
 Consider a network space of 10,000 subscribers that
generate 1000 calls in a busy hour
 the view from Dialog’s position
Figure 1
Dialog
6000 subs
Mobitel
2000 subs
Tigo
750 subs
Hutch
750 subs
360 calls
240 calls
30 calls
120
calls
Airtel
500 subs
45 calls
45 calls

8. The Network Space from Dialog’s
Position
 Dialog will originate (1000/10000)*6000 = 600 calls
uniformly to all subscribers (in all networks).
 (600/10000)*6000 = 360 calls will be to Dialogs own (D2D)
subscribers.
 Of the 600 calls, (600/10000)*4000 = 240 calls will be to other
networks
 The 240 outgoing calls to other networks are distributed as
 (240/4000)*500 = 30 calls to Airtel
 (240/4000)*2000 = 120 calls to Mobitel, and so on…

9. The Network Space from Airtel’s
Position
 The view from Airtel’s position
Airtel
500 subs
Mobitel
2000 subs
Tigo
750 subs
Hutch
750 subs
2.5 calls
47.5 calls
30 calls
10 calls
Dialog
6000 subs
3.75 calls
calls
3.75 calls
Figure 2

10. View from Airtel’s Position
 Airtel will originate (1000/10000)*500 = 50 calls –
uniformly to all subscribers (across all operators).
 (50/10000)*500 = 2.5 calls will be to Airtel’s own subscribers.
 (50/10000)*9500 = 47.5 calls will be to other networks
 The 47.5 outgoing calls to other networks are distributed as
 (47.5/9500)*6000 = 30 calls to Dialog
 (47.5/9500)*2000 = 10 calls to Mobitel, and so on…
 Predicted symmetry in the traffic between operators
 Large operator makes a smaller proportion of OG calls to smaller
operator
 Small operator makes a larger proportion of OG calls to large operator
 Expect similar number of calls (MOU) from Dialog to Airtel and from
Airtel to Dialog

11. Results on Inter Network Traffic
Symmetry
 Total traffic between Dialog and other networks in a busy hour -
over 7 day period (in 105)
 Within +/- 10%
Total
Incoming
MOUs
Total
outgoing
MOUs
Total
incoming
calls
Total
outgoing
Calls
Airtel 3.5475 3.3206 2.173 2.06
Etisalat 6.8092 8.3425 4.407 4.881
Hutch 0.8331 0.8114 0.461 0.472
Mobitel 10.371 11.0604 5.449 5.756

12. Adjusting for Tariffs
 Differing on net and off net tariffs affect average
duration of on net and off net calls
 Assumption: Call length is inversely proportional to
tariff
 Ex: If on net tariff is 1 Rs per min and off net tariff is 2 Rs
per min. A subscriber who spends 4 minutes on an on net
call will spend ½ the time on a off net call or two minutes.
 Adjust the MOUs by the ratio between the off net tariff to
the on net tariff as the off net MOUs will be under stated by
this factor
 (any proportionality constant will cancel)
 The traffic attracted to an operator is proportional to
the subscriber base (market share)

13. Adjusting MOUs
 Off net MOUs understated due to difference in tariffs
 Scale off net MOUs by the ratio between off net to on net tariff
 Market share independent of “absolute” number of
subscribers
 ie RGB can differ based on time window but share wouldn’t
change D2D: 360 calls => 360*4 = 1440MOUs
Share Mobitel = 1/3/(1+1/3) = 25%
Dialog
6000 subs Mobitel
2000 subs
120 calls => 120*2 MOUs
Adjusted MOUs = 240 * (D2ND tariff/ D2D tariff) = 480 MOUs
Proportion Mobitel = 480/1440 = 1/3
Share Dialog = 1/(1+1/3) = 75%

14. Estimate Based on Aggregate
Traffic
 Using aggregate MOUs to individual operators and
average on net and off net tariffs, with the pre and post
paid split
Dialog
6000 subs
Mobitel
2000 subs
ToT_D2D_MOU: 360 calls => 360*4 = 1440MOUs
120 calls => 120*2 MOUs


i
inetworkproportion
MOBproportion
MOBshare
_1
_
_
MOUDDTot
MOUadjePTotMOUadjPoPTot
MOBproportion
_2_
)__Pr____(
_


tariffDDeP
tariffNDDeP
MOUePMOUadjePTot
_2_Pr
_2_Pr
_Pr__Pr_ 
tariffDDPoP
tariffNDDPoP
MOUPoPMOUadjPoPTot
_2_
_2_
____ 

15. Required Measurements
 D2D MOUs (pre pay and post pay)
 Outgoing MOUs to each Operator
 Average pre pay D2D tariff and D2ND tariff
 Average post pay D2D tariff and D2ND tariff

16. Implementation
 Required data already available in monthly
spreadsheets and easy to automate
 inter operator MOUs
 Interconnection details voice spreadsheet
 Intra net MOUs, average off net / on net, pre pay
and post pay tariffs
 Daily performance spreadsheet
 Easy calculation

17. Estimate Based on Aggregate
Traffic
 Using aggregate MOUs to individual operators and
average on net and off net tariffs
March April May
Share Airtel 0.0780 0.0765 0.0747
Share Hutch 0.0164 0.0173 0.0181
Share Mobitel 0.2526 0.2534 0.2542
Share Etisalat 0.1863 0.1865 0.1864
Share Dialog 0.4664 0.4660 0.4663

18. Validation: Call by Call Analysis
 Observing predicted symmetry
 The tariffs applicable to the individual subscriber package
used
 Results of a call by call analysis in a busy hour over 7 day
period, using tariffs from packages applicable to individual
subscribers
 The short term estimates converge to the aggregate based
estimate
May
Share Airtel 0.0763
Share Hutch 0.0187
Share Mobitel 0.2599
Share Etisalat 0.1787
Share Dialog 0.4663

19. Conclusion: Main Points in the
Estimation
 Estimates computed by expressing traffic volume to other
operators (off net traffic) in terms of the intra net traffic (D2D
traffic)
 The outgoing traffic to each operator gives an indication of the
weight of that operator in terms of Dialogs own subscriber base
 Traffic attracted by other networks is proportional to their internal
subscriber base (oranges) – but expressed in terms of Dialog base
(apples)
 Indirectly relating each operator’s base to Dialog base
 As outgoing traffic is utilized - estimate not dependent on specific
details of each operator’s internal pre /post split or on net / off net
tariffs
 Even loss of symmetry in the traffic will not affect validity of the
estimates as calculation is based on relating the outgoing traffic to
on net traffic
 Once other operator traffic (oranges) expressed in terms of Dialogs

20. Thank You

21. Relating the OG MOUs
X X X
X X X
Y Y
12 MOU
4 MOU
(adjusted
)
Dialog
Operator Y
Irrespective of the type of subscriber that operator Y has, the market share
estimate
depends on the outgoing D2D and D2ND MOUs. The weight of operator Y
will be
expressed in terms of Dialog subscribers (MOUs).
If 6X attract 12 MOUs OG, then 4 MOUs OG (attracted by Y)
Imply Op Y has (6/12)*4->, 2X type subscribers
Share = 1/3 /[1 + 1/3]