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14
57086
Contract and Project Management




David Sowden, The University of Hull
14
57086
Contract and Project Management

Management of Risk




David Sowden, The University of Hull
Overview
• Management of Risk
 – What is Risk Management?
 – Risk Principles
 – The risk management cycle
 – Risk responsibilities
 – Risk ownership
 – Risk tolerance
 – Risk analysis
 – Risk profile
 – Budgeting for risk management
 – Further considerations



                                   3
What is Risk Management?




                    4
What is Risk Management?

Risk management involves having:




                       4
What is Risk Management?

Risk management involves having:




                       4
What is Risk Management?

Risk management involves having:
 – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks




                                 4
What is Risk Management?

Risk management involves having:
 – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks

 – Decision-making processes supported by a framework of risk
   analysis and evaluation




                                 4
What is Risk Management?

Risk management involves having:
 – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks

 – Decision-making processes supported by a framework of risk
   analysis and evaluation

 – Processes in place to monitor risk




                                 4
What is Risk Management?

Risk management involves having:
 – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks

 – Decision-making processes supported by a framework of risk
   analysis and evaluation

 – Processes in place to monitor risk

 – The right balance of control in place to deal with those risks
   (Risk tolerance)



                                  4
Risk Principles




                  5
Risk Principles
 – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and
   understand and accept the time and resource implementation.




                                    5
Risk Principles
 – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and
   understand and accept the time and resource implementation.

 – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are
   clearly communicated to all staff




                                      5
Risk Principles
 – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and
   understand and accept the time and resource implementation.

 – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are
   clearly communicated to all staff

 – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project
   management processes




                                      5
Risk Principles
 – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and
   understand and accept the time and resource implementation.

 – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are
   clearly communicated to all staff

 – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project
   management processes

 – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of
   business objectives




                                      5
Risk Principles
 – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and
   understand and accept the time and resource implementation.

 – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are
   clearly communicated to all staff

 – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project
   management processes

 – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of
   business objectives

 – Risks through working with programmes and tother projects are assessed and
   managed




                                      5
Risk Principles
 – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and
   understand and accept the time and resource implementation.

 – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are
   clearly communicated to all staff

 – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project
   management processes

 – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of
   business objectives

 – Risks through working with programmes and tother projects are assessed and
   managed

 – There is a clear structure to the risk process so that each element of level of
   risk identification fits into an overall structure




                                         5
Risk Principles
 – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and
   understand and accept the time and resource implementation.

 – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are
   clearly communicated to all staff

 – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project
   management processes

 – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of
   business objectives

 – Risks through working with programmes and tother projects are assessed and
   managed

 – There is a clear structure to the risk process so that each element of level of
   risk identification fits into an overall structure

 – Where the project is part of a programme, change in the state of any project
   risks that also identified as programme risks must be flagged to programme
   management or designated risk management function in the programme.
                                         5
Risk Management Cycle
        Risk analysis       Risk management




                        6
Risk Management Cycle
         Risk analysis         Risk management


      Identify the risks




                           6
Risk Management Cycle
         Risk analysis         Risk management


      Identify the risks



     Evaluate the risks




                           6
Risk Management Cycle
         Risk analysis         Risk management


      Identify the risks



     Evaluate the risks


      Identify suitable
      responses to risk




                           6
Risk Management Cycle
         Risk analysis         Risk management


      Identify the risks



     Evaluate the risks


      Identify suitable
      responses to risk


           Select


                           6
Risk Management Cycle
         Risk analysis           Risk management


      Identify the risks



     Evaluate the risks


      Identify suitable
                               Plan and resource
      responses to risk


           Select


                           6
Risk Management Cycle
         Risk analysis           Risk management


      Identify the risks



     Evaluate the risks        Monitor and report


      Identify suitable
                               Plan and resource
      responses to risk


           Select


                           6
Risk Management Cycle
         Risk analysis           Risk management


      Identify the risks



     Evaluate the risks        Monitor and report


      Identify suitable
                               Plan and resource
      responses to risk


           Select


                           6
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks




                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks


  –Strategic/commercial




                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks


  –Strategic/commercial
  –Economic/financial/market




                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks


  –Strategic/commercial
  –Economic/financial/market
  –Legal and regulatory




                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks


  –Strategic/commercial
  –Economic/financial/market
  –Legal and regulatory
  –Organisational/management/human factors




                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks


  –Strategic/commercial
  –Economic/financial/market
  –Legal and regulatory
  –Organisational/management/human factors
  –Political




                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks


  –Strategic/commercial
  –Economic/financial/market
  –Legal and regulatory
  –Organisational/management/human factors
  –Political
  –Environmental


                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Identify the risks


  –Strategic/commercial
  –Economic/financial/market
  –Legal and regulatory
  –Organisational/management/human factors
  –Political
  –Environmental
  –Technical/operational/infrastructure
                        7
Risk Management Cycle
                            Evaluate the risks




                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)




                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)
  –Impact (should the risk happen)




                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)
  –Impact (should the risk happen)
   –time




                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)
  –Impact (should the risk happen)
   –time
   –cost




                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)
  –Impact (should the risk happen)
   –time
   –cost
   –quality




                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)
  –Impact (should the risk happen)
   –time
   –cost
   –quality
   –scope




                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)
  –Impact (should the risk happen)
   –time
   –cost
   –quality
   –scope
   –benefits



                        8
Risk Management Cycle
                             Evaluate the risks


  –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening)
  –Impact (should the risk happen)
   –time
   –cost
   –quality
   –scope
   –benefits
   –people/resources


                        8
Identify suitable       EXAMPLE
responses to risk




                    9
Identify suitable                                                EXAMPLE
  responses to risk

               Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the
               risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that
Prevention     either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having
               any impact
               Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions
 Reduction     either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact

               This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the
               risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or
Transference   penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for
               the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way

               Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable
Acceptance     cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at
               an acceptable level
               These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when
Contingency    the risk occurs



                                           9
Identify suitable                                                EXAMPLE
  responses to risk

               Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the
               risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that
Prevention     either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having
               any impact
               Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions
 Reduction     either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact

               This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the
               risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or
Transference   penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for
               the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way

               Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable
Acceptance     cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at
               an acceptable level
               These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when
Contingency    the risk occurs



                                           9
Identify suitable                                                EXAMPLE
  responses to risk

               Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the
               risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that
Prevention     either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having
               any impact
               Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions
 Reduction     either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact

               This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the
               risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or
Transference   penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for
               the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way

               Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable
Acceptance     cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at
               an acceptable level
               These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when
Contingency    the risk occurs



                                           9
Identify suitable                                                EXAMPLE
  responses to risk

               Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the
               risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that
Prevention     either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having
               any impact
               Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions
 Reduction     either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact

               This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the
               risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or
Transference   penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for
               the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way

               Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable
Acceptance     cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at
               an acceptable level
               These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when
Contingency    the risk occurs



                                           9
Identify suitable                                                EXAMPLE
  responses to risk

               Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the
               risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that
Prevention     either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having
               any impact
               Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions
 Reduction     either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact

               This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the
               risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or
Transference   penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for
               the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way

               Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable
Acceptance     cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at
               an acceptable level
               These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when
Contingency    the risk occurs



                                           9
Balance the risk
                           Select

Cost of actions
                        Probability and
                         impact of risk
                           occurring




                   10
Risk action selection          Possible
                               action 2
                                                             Select

       Possible                                        Possible
                               Cost/time
       action 1                                        action 3

                  Cost/time                    Cost/time

                              Risk tolerance




                              Selection

                              Risk tolerance




                                  11
Risk action selection                 Possible
                                      action 2
                                                                       Select

         Possible                                                Possible
                                      Cost/time
         action 1                                                action 3

                     Cost/time                        Cost/time

                                  Risk tolerance




                                 Selection
      Impact on                                                        Impact on
     other parts                                                         plans
                                  Risk tolerance
    of the project




                        Impact on                   Impact on
                      Business Case                business or
                                                   programme
                                         11
Risk Management Cycle
                             Plan and resource




                        12
Risk Management Cycle
                                               Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:




                                12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions




                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions
– Developing a detailed plan of action




                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions
– Developing a detailed plan of action
– Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions




                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions
– Developing a detailed plan of action
– Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions
– Obtaining management approval




                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions
– Developing a detailed plan of action
– Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions
– Obtaining management approval

Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in
carrying out the actions:




                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions
– Developing a detailed plan of action
– Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions
– Obtaining management approval

Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in
carrying out the actions:
– These assignments will be shown in Project and Stage Plans




                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions
– Developing a detailed plan of action
– Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions
– Obtaining management approval

Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in
carrying out the actions:
– These assignments will be shown in Project and Stage Plans
– Resources requiring funding from the project budget




                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                                                  Plan and resource

Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of:
– Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out
  the actions
– Developing a detailed plan of action
– Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions
– Obtaining management approval

Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in
carrying out the actions:
– These assignments will be shown in Project and Stage Plans
– Resources requiring funding from the project budget
– Contingency actions will normally be funded from a contingency
  budget

                                  12
Risk Management Cycle
                             Monitor and report




                        13
Risk Management Cycle
                               Monitor and report

Monitoring, may consist of:




                          13
Risk Management Cycle
                                        Monitor and report

Monitoring, may consist of:

–Checking that execution of the planned actions is having
 the desired effect




                            13
Risk Management Cycle
                                          Monitor and report

Monitoring, may consist of:

–Checking that execution of the planned actions is having
 the desired effect

–Watching for the early warning signs that a risk is
 developing




                             13
Risk Management Cycle
                                          Monitor and report

Monitoring, may consist of:

–Checking that execution of the planned actions is having
 the desired effect

–Watching for the early warning signs that a risk is
 developing

–Modelling trends, predicting potential risks or
 opportunities




                             13
Risk Management Cycle
                                          Monitor and report

Monitoring, may consist of:

–Checking that execution of the planned actions is having
 the desired effect

–Watching for the early warning signs that a risk is
 developing

–Modelling trends, predicting potential risks or
 opportunities

–Checking that the overall management of risk is being
 applied effectively.


                             13
Risk Responsibilities




                        14
Risk Responsibilities

The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are
identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has
four responsibilities:




                                  14
Risk Responsibilities

The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are
identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has
four responsibilities:
 • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the
   project




                                  14
Risk Responsibilities

The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are
identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has
four responsibilities:
 • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the
   project
 • Making decisions on the Project Manager’s recommended reactions
   to risk




                                  14
Risk Responsibilities

The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are
identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has
four responsibilities:
 • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the
   project
 • Making decisions on the Project Manager’s recommended reactions
   to risk
 • Striking a balance between the level of risk and the potential
   benefits that the project may achieve




                                   14
Risk Responsibilities

The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are
identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has
four responsibilities:
 • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the
   project
 • Making decisions on the Project Manager’s recommended reactions
   to risk
 • Striking a balance between the level of risk and the potential
   benefits that the project may achieve
 • Notifying corporate or programme management of any risks that
   affect the project’s ability to meet corporate or programme
   objectives.



                                   14
Risk Ownership




                 15
Risk Ownership

Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various
components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who
owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns
the following:




                                  15
Risk Ownership

Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various
components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who
owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns
the following:
 • The risk framework in totality




                                    15
Risk Ownership

Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various
components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who
owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns
the following:
 • The risk framework in totality
 • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk




                                    15
Risk Ownership

Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various
components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who
owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns
the following:
 • The risk framework in totality
 • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk
 • Different elements of the risk process, such as identifying threats,
   through to producing risk response and reporting




                                    15
Risk Ownership

Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various
components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who
owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns
the following:
 • The risk framework in totality
 • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk
 • Different elements of the risk process, such as identifying threats,
   through to producing risk response and reporting
 • Implementation of the actual measures taken in response to the
   risks




                                    15
Risk Ownership

Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various
components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who
owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns
the following:
 • The risk framework in totality
 • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk
 • Different elements of the risk process, such as identifying threats,
   through to producing risk response and reporting
 • Implementation of the actual measures taken in response to the
   risks
 • Interdependent risks that cross organisational boundaries, whether
   they be related to business processes, IT systems or other projects.

                                    15
Risk Tolerance
                      EXAMPLE




                 16
Risk Analysis

      Asset              Threat            Vulnerability              Mitigation
 What are you trying What are you afraid        How could the          What is currently
    to protect?        of happening?            threat occur?         reducing the risk?



          Impact/Severity                          Probability/Likelihood
   What is the impact to the business?               How likely is the threat?



          1. Negligible                               1. Unforeseeable
          2. Minor                                    2. Very unlikely
          3. Moderate                                 3. Possible
          4. Major                                    4. Likely
          5. Critical                                 5. Very Likely
          6. Catastrophic                             6. Almost certain




                                     Risk Log
                                           17
Risk Log
                                                            EXAMPLE
              Risk Log                                                    Tolerability level
                                                                                 12

                                                 Impact     Probability   Risk rating
   Priority                  Hazard
                                                 (I)(1-6)    (P)(1-6)       (I x P)

      1       Data loss due to virus                5           4               20
      2       Denial of service attack              5            3              15
      3       Theft of proprietary information      4            3              12
      4       Insider net abuse                     4            3              12
      5       Abuse or wireless networks            3           4               12
      6       Financial fraud                       5           2               10
      7       Laptop theft                          3            3                9
      8       Unauthorised access                   3            3                9
      9       Telecom fraud                         2            3                6
     10       Website hacking/defacement            3           2                 6
     11       System penetration                    3           2                 6
     12       Sabotage                              4            1                4
                                         18
EXAMPLE
Risk Analysis




                19
EXAMPLE
Risk Profile



  Use of a easy-to-read diagram
  may assist in the visibility of risks
  and assist management decisions
  - these would be normally found
  in the Risk Logs



                        20
EXAMPLE
Risk Profile
                                          Risk tolerance line
 Probability/Likelihood




                           High    1,2                      5

                          Medium    4           3

                           Low                 6,9         7,8

                                   Low        Medium      High
                                                                Impact
                                         20
Analysing Risk
                                                                   EXAMPLE
Factor                       Likelihood Impact Mitigation Strategy

Failure to recruit staff     Medium     High     Minimise number of staff to be recruited. Ensure
                                                 recruitment cycle begins as rapidly after project
                                                 approved as possible. Ensure remuneration
                                                 adequate to level of responsibility and expertise. Use
                                                 specialist recruitment agency if necessary. Other
                                                 staff seconded from other duties and additionally
                                                 trained as triage solution.

Underestimate                Low        Medium   Close integration with OSS community effort to
difficulty of specific                           mobilise additional resource to bear on problem
technical development                            space.

Difficulty integrating       Medium     High     Deploy Identity Management software based on
with data sources for                            open standards. Direct engagement with systems
identity                                         specialists.

Difficulty integrating       Medium     High     Work with the various Engineering institutions to
the numerous                                     develop a concept concerning the creation and
electronic systems                               adoption of Standards (i.e. LEAP2A)
within the Engineering
framework

Project fails sufficiently   Low        High     Staff within the University of Hull, particularly the
to engage engineering                            Knowledge Exchange will ensure that the ‘learner
communities                                      voice’ is represented throughout the project,
                                                 inclusive of the broad diversity (including
                                                 geographic) of learners represented within the
                                                 partnership.
Budgeting for risk management
• A project needs to allocate and have embedded in the
  project environment:
   –Budget
   –Time
   –Resources (staff/skills/tools/techniques)
  to ensure Risk Management is carried out successfully


• Experience shows that allocating the correct ‘budget’
  to the risk management process early on will pay
  dividends later
                           22
Further considerations

 – Project Interdependencies

 – The relationship between benefit and
   delivery risks

 – Internal versus external risks


                     23
TASK



Review your Project risks

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57086 14 management_ofrisk

  • 1. 14 57086 Contract and Project Management David Sowden, The University of Hull
  • 2. 14 57086 Contract and Project Management Management of Risk David Sowden, The University of Hull
  • 3. Overview • Management of Risk – What is Risk Management? – Risk Principles – The risk management cycle – Risk responsibilities – Risk ownership – Risk tolerance – Risk analysis – Risk profile – Budgeting for risk management – Further considerations 3
  • 4. What is Risk Management? 4
  • 5. What is Risk Management? Risk management involves having: 4
  • 6. What is Risk Management? Risk management involves having: 4
  • 7. What is Risk Management? Risk management involves having: – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks 4
  • 8. What is Risk Management? Risk management involves having: – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks – Decision-making processes supported by a framework of risk analysis and evaluation 4
  • 9. What is Risk Management? Risk management involves having: – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks – Decision-making processes supported by a framework of risk analysis and evaluation – Processes in place to monitor risk 4
  • 10. What is Risk Management? Risk management involves having: – Access to reliable, up-to-date information about risks – Decision-making processes supported by a framework of risk analysis and evaluation – Processes in place to monitor risk – The right balance of control in place to deal with those risks (Risk tolerance) 4
  • 12. Risk Principles – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and understand and accept the time and resource implementation. 5
  • 13. Risk Principles – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and understand and accept the time and resource implementation. – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are clearly communicated to all staff 5
  • 14. Risk Principles – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and understand and accept the time and resource implementation. – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are clearly communicated to all staff – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project management processes 5
  • 15. Risk Principles – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and understand and accept the time and resource implementation. – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are clearly communicated to all staff – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project management processes – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of business objectives 5
  • 16. Risk Principles – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and understand and accept the time and resource implementation. – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are clearly communicated to all staff – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project management processes – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of business objectives – Risks through working with programmes and tother projects are assessed and managed 5
  • 17. Risk Principles – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and understand and accept the time and resource implementation. – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are clearly communicated to all staff – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project management processes – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of business objectives – Risks through working with programmes and tother projects are assessed and managed – There is a clear structure to the risk process so that each element of level of risk identification fits into an overall structure 5
  • 18. Risk Principles – The Project Board (Supervisors) support and promotes risk management, and understand and accept the time and resource implementation. – Risk management policies and the benefits of effective risk management are clearly communicated to all staff – A consistent approach to risk management is fully embedded in the project management processes – Management of risk is an essential contribution to the achievement of business objectives – Risks through working with programmes and tother projects are assessed and managed – There is a clear structure to the risk process so that each element of level of risk identification fits into an overall structure – Where the project is part of a programme, change in the state of any project risks that also identified as programme risks must be flagged to programme management or designated risk management function in the programme. 5
  • 19. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management 6
  • 20. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks 6
  • 21. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks Evaluate the risks 6
  • 22. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks Evaluate the risks Identify suitable responses to risk 6
  • 23. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks Evaluate the risks Identify suitable responses to risk Select 6
  • 24. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks Evaluate the risks Identify suitable Plan and resource responses to risk Select 6
  • 25. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks Evaluate the risks Monitor and report Identify suitable Plan and resource responses to risk Select 6
  • 26. Risk Management Cycle Risk analysis Risk management Identify the risks Evaluate the risks Monitor and report Identify suitable Plan and resource responses to risk Select 6
  • 27. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks 7
  • 28. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks –Strategic/commercial 7
  • 29. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks –Strategic/commercial –Economic/financial/market 7
  • 30. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks –Strategic/commercial –Economic/financial/market –Legal and regulatory 7
  • 31. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks –Strategic/commercial –Economic/financial/market –Legal and regulatory –Organisational/management/human factors 7
  • 32. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks –Strategic/commercial –Economic/financial/market –Legal and regulatory –Organisational/management/human factors –Political 7
  • 33. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks –Strategic/commercial –Economic/financial/market –Legal and regulatory –Organisational/management/human factors –Political –Environmental 7
  • 34. Risk Management Cycle Identify the risks –Strategic/commercial –Economic/financial/market –Legal and regulatory –Organisational/management/human factors –Political –Environmental –Technical/operational/infrastructure 7
  • 35. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks 8
  • 36. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) 8
  • 37. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) –Impact (should the risk happen) 8
  • 38. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) –Impact (should the risk happen) –time 8
  • 39. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) –Impact (should the risk happen) –time –cost 8
  • 40. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) –Impact (should the risk happen) –time –cost –quality 8
  • 41. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) –Impact (should the risk happen) –time –cost –quality –scope 8
  • 42. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) –Impact (should the risk happen) –time –cost –quality –scope –benefits 8
  • 43. Risk Management Cycle Evaluate the risks –Probability/Likelihood (of the risk happening) –Impact (should the risk happen) –time –cost –quality –scope –benefits –people/resources 8
  • 44. Identify suitable EXAMPLE responses to risk 9
  • 45. Identify suitable EXAMPLE responses to risk Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that Prevention either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having any impact Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions Reduction either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or Transference penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable Acceptance cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at an acceptable level These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when Contingency the risk occurs 9
  • 46. Identify suitable EXAMPLE responses to risk Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that Prevention either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having any impact Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions Reduction either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or Transference penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable Acceptance cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at an acceptable level These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when Contingency the risk occurs 9
  • 47. Identify suitable EXAMPLE responses to risk Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that Prevention either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having any impact Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions Reduction either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or Transference penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable Acceptance cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at an acceptable level These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when Contingency the risk occurs 9
  • 48. Identify suitable EXAMPLE responses to risk Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that Prevention either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having any impact Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions Reduction either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or Transference penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable Acceptance cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at an acceptable level These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when Contingency the risk occurs 9
  • 49. Identify suitable EXAMPLE responses to risk Terminate the risk - by doing things differently and thus removing the risk, where it is feasible to do so. Countermeasures are put in place that Prevention either stop the the threat or problem from occurring or prevent it having any impact Treat the risk - take action to control it in some way where the actions Reduction either reduce the likelihood of the risk developing or limit the impact This is a specialist form of risk reduction where the management of the risk is passed to a third party via, for instance, an insurance policy or Transference penalty clause, such that the impact of the risk is no longer an issue for the health of the project. Not all risks can be transferred in this way Tolerate the risk - perhaps because nothing can be done at a reasonable Acceptance cost to mitigate it or the likelihood and impact of the risk occurring are at an acceptable level These are actions planned and organised to come into force as and when Contingency the risk occurs 9
  • 50. Balance the risk Select Cost of actions Probability and impact of risk occurring 10
  • 51. Risk action selection Possible action 2 Select Possible Possible Cost/time action 1 action 3 Cost/time Cost/time Risk tolerance Selection Risk tolerance 11
  • 52. Risk action selection Possible action 2 Select Possible Possible Cost/time action 1 action 3 Cost/time Cost/time Risk tolerance Selection Impact on Impact on other parts plans Risk tolerance of the project Impact on Impact on Business Case business or programme 11
  • 53. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource 12
  • 54. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: 12
  • 55. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions 12
  • 56. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions – Developing a detailed plan of action 12
  • 57. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions – Developing a detailed plan of action – Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions 12
  • 58. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions – Developing a detailed plan of action – Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions – Obtaining management approval 12
  • 59. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions – Developing a detailed plan of action – Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions – Obtaining management approval Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in carrying out the actions: 12
  • 60. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions – Developing a detailed plan of action – Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions – Obtaining management approval Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in carrying out the actions: – These assignments will be shown in Project and Stage Plans 12
  • 61. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions – Developing a detailed plan of action – Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions – Obtaining management approval Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in carrying out the actions: – These assignments will be shown in Project and Stage Plans – Resources requiring funding from the project budget 12
  • 62. Risk Management Cycle Plan and resource Planning, which for countermeasure actions consist of: – Identifying the quantity and type of resources required to carry out the actions – Developing a detailed plan of action – Confirming the desirability of carrying out the actions – Obtaining management approval Resourcing, which to be used to conduct the work involved in carrying out the actions: – These assignments will be shown in Project and Stage Plans – Resources requiring funding from the project budget – Contingency actions will normally be funded from a contingency budget 12
  • 63. Risk Management Cycle Monitor and report 13
  • 64. Risk Management Cycle Monitor and report Monitoring, may consist of: 13
  • 65. Risk Management Cycle Monitor and report Monitoring, may consist of: –Checking that execution of the planned actions is having the desired effect 13
  • 66. Risk Management Cycle Monitor and report Monitoring, may consist of: –Checking that execution of the planned actions is having the desired effect –Watching for the early warning signs that a risk is developing 13
  • 67. Risk Management Cycle Monitor and report Monitoring, may consist of: –Checking that execution of the planned actions is having the desired effect –Watching for the early warning signs that a risk is developing –Modelling trends, predicting potential risks or opportunities 13
  • 68. Risk Management Cycle Monitor and report Monitoring, may consist of: –Checking that execution of the planned actions is having the desired effect –Watching for the early warning signs that a risk is developing –Modelling trends, predicting potential risks or opportunities –Checking that the overall management of risk is being applied effectively. 13
  • 70. Risk Responsibilities The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has four responsibilities: 14
  • 71. Risk Responsibilities The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has four responsibilities: • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the project 14
  • 72. Risk Responsibilities The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has four responsibilities: • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the project • Making decisions on the Project Manager’s recommended reactions to risk 14
  • 73. Risk Responsibilities The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has four responsibilities: • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the project • Making decisions on the Project Manager’s recommended reactions to risk • Striking a balance between the level of risk and the potential benefits that the project may achieve 14
  • 74. Risk Responsibilities The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring that risks are identified, recorded and regularly reviewed. The Project Board has four responsibilities: • Notifying the Project Manager of any external risk exposure to the project • Making decisions on the Project Manager’s recommended reactions to risk • Striking a balance between the level of risk and the potential benefits that the project may achieve • Notifying corporate or programme management of any risks that affect the project’s ability to meet corporate or programme objectives. 14
  • 76. Risk Ownership Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns the following: 15
  • 77. Risk Ownership Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns the following: • The risk framework in totality 15
  • 78. Risk Ownership Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns the following: • The risk framework in totality • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk 15
  • 79. Risk Ownership Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns the following: • The risk framework in totality • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk • Different elements of the risk process, such as identifying threats, through to producing risk response and reporting 15
  • 80. Risk Ownership Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns the following: • The risk framework in totality • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk • Different elements of the risk process, such as identifying threats, through to producing risk response and reporting • Implementation of the actual measures taken in response to the risks 15
  • 81. Risk Ownership Allocating ownership of the risk process as a whole and the various components is fundamental from the outset. When describing who owns the various elements of risk, it is important to identify who owns the following: • The risk framework in totality • Setting risk policy and the project team’s willingness to take risk • Different elements of the risk process, such as identifying threats, through to producing risk response and reporting • Implementation of the actual measures taken in response to the risks • Interdependent risks that cross organisational boundaries, whether they be related to business processes, IT systems or other projects. 15
  • 82. Risk Tolerance EXAMPLE 16
  • 83. Risk Analysis Asset Threat Vulnerability Mitigation What are you trying What are you afraid How could the What is currently to protect? of happening? threat occur? reducing the risk? Impact/Severity Probability/Likelihood What is the impact to the business? How likely is the threat? 1. Negligible 1. Unforeseeable 2. Minor 2. Very unlikely 3. Moderate 3. Possible 4. Major 4. Likely 5. Critical 5. Very Likely 6. Catastrophic 6. Almost certain Risk Log 17
  • 84. Risk Log EXAMPLE Risk Log Tolerability level 12 Impact Probability Risk rating Priority Hazard (I)(1-6) (P)(1-6) (I x P) 1 Data loss due to virus 5 4 20 2 Denial of service attack 5 3 15 3 Theft of proprietary information 4 3 12 4 Insider net abuse 4 3 12 5 Abuse or wireless networks 3 4 12 6 Financial fraud 5 2 10 7 Laptop theft 3 3 9 8 Unauthorised access 3 3 9 9 Telecom fraud 2 3 6 10 Website hacking/defacement 3 2 6 11 System penetration 3 2 6 12 Sabotage 4 1 4 18
  • 86. EXAMPLE Risk Profile Use of a easy-to-read diagram may assist in the visibility of risks and assist management decisions - these would be normally found in the Risk Logs 20
  • 87. EXAMPLE Risk Profile Risk tolerance line Probability/Likelihood High 1,2 5 Medium 4 3 Low 6,9 7,8 Low Medium High Impact 20
  • 88. Analysing Risk EXAMPLE Factor Likelihood Impact Mitigation Strategy Failure to recruit staff Medium High Minimise number of staff to be recruited. Ensure recruitment cycle begins as rapidly after project approved as possible. Ensure remuneration adequate to level of responsibility and expertise. Use specialist recruitment agency if necessary. Other staff seconded from other duties and additionally trained as triage solution. Underestimate Low Medium Close integration with OSS community effort to difficulty of specific mobilise additional resource to bear on problem technical development space. Difficulty integrating Medium High Deploy Identity Management software based on with data sources for open standards. Direct engagement with systems identity specialists. Difficulty integrating Medium High Work with the various Engineering institutions to the numerous develop a concept concerning the creation and electronic systems adoption of Standards (i.e. LEAP2A) within the Engineering framework Project fails sufficiently Low High Staff within the University of Hull, particularly the to engage engineering Knowledge Exchange will ensure that the ‘learner communities voice’ is represented throughout the project, inclusive of the broad diversity (including geographic) of learners represented within the partnership.
  • 89. Budgeting for risk management • A project needs to allocate and have embedded in the project environment: –Budget –Time –Resources (staff/skills/tools/techniques) to ensure Risk Management is carried out successfully • Experience shows that allocating the correct ‘budget’ to the risk management process early on will pay dividends later 22
  • 90. Further considerations – Project Interdependencies – The relationship between benefit and delivery risks – Internal versus external risks 23