Young Syrian refugees have mixed views about returning home permanently. Over half say it is unlikely, with ending the war and defeating ISIS seen as the most important prerequisites. They view Canada, the US, UAE and Germany as preferable countries to live in if not returning to Syria. Opinions on Russian and Iranian involvement in the war are divided, and refugees do not believe Trump's presidency will impact the conflict's course. Most agree military action alone is not sufficient to resolve the war.
4. As part of the 9th Annual ASDA’A
Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey
2017, international polling firm PSB
Research conducted 400 face-to-face
interviews between February 12 and
March 12, 2017 with Syrian refugees
aged 18 to 24 living in camps and
settlements in Jordan and Lebanon
(N=200 interviews per country). This
was the first time that Syrian refugees
had been included in the Survey. The
interviews were completed in Arabic
and English.
Respondents were exclusively Syrian
nationals. The gender split of the
survey is 50:50 male to female. In
Jordan, interviews were conducted in
three refugee camps: Al Za’atary,
Al’Azraq, and Mrajeeb Al Fhood. In
Lebanon, interviews were conducted in
Tripoli, in the Beirut suburbs Dahieh,
Ain Remmaneh and Sin el Fil, and in
Marjeyoun and Nabatieh. The margin
of error of the refugee survey is
+/-4.85 per cent.
Participants were interviewed about
subjects ranging from the political to
the personal. Topics explored included
the concerns and aspirations of young
Syrian refugees, their views on the
conflict, and what they think needs to
happen to improve their living
conditions in the short-term and
in the long run.
The full Arab Youth Survey 2017
consists of 3,500 face-to-face
interviews with Arab men and women
aged 18 to 24. Fieldwork was
conducted from February 7 and March
7 2017. The survey is the largest of its
kind of the region’s largest
demographic, and covers the six Gulf
Cooperation Council states (Bahrain,
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and
the UAE), North Africa (Algeria, Egypt,
Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), the
Levant (Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and the
Palestinian Territories) and Yemen.
The Survey has not included Syria
since 2011, due to the civil unrest in
the country.
METHODOLOGY
400 face-to-face
interviews conducted
by PSB Research
Syrian refugees aged
18-24 years
Living in Jordan and
Lebanon (200
interviews in each)
Sample split 50:50
male/female
Interviews conducted
from February 12 to
March 12, 2017
2 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
5. Now in its sixth year, the Syrian refugee
crisis has triggered heated arguments
across the world, polarising the political
debate in the Arab states, Europe and the
US. One voice, however, has been
conspicuous by its absence in this debate
– that of the refugees themselves.
The annual ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
Arab Youth Survey – the most important
research of its type into this crucial
demographic across the Middle East – has
itself excluded young Syrian voices since
2011, due to the security situation.
This year, we are redressing that omission.
With the plight of Syrians – and especially
those forced to flee the fighting –
dominating headlines in the region and
globally, we felt it was important to hear
those voices. For the first time, therefore,
we conducted a supplementary poll
alongside our Arab Youth Survey 2017,
reaching out to young Syrian refugees
living in Lebanon and Jordan.
The figures surrounding the refugee crisis
are alarming. Six years of war have left
hundreds of thousands dead. Half of the
population – over 11 million people – have
been displaced by the fighting, and of
those, more than 5 million have been
forced to flee their country altogether and
seek refuge in other countries. Most find
themselves in refugee camps and
settlements in Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq,
Egypt and Turkey. Despite what the
headlines in Europe suggest, only one in
ten has fled further afield, attempting to
seek refuge and asylum in Europe.
If the sheer scale of the crisis is worrying,
our findings from this Survey are sobering.
More than half of the young Syrians we
surveyed – all living in severe poverty, in
cramped refugee settlements just miles
from their homeland – say they don’t think
they will ever permanently return to Syria.
More, for this return to happen, the
complex politics and the wider strategic
implications of the war and the crisis
take a back seat to a far more basic need:
an end to the fighting.
These findings are of significant value
to policymakers and civil society in
identifying new channels of engagement
with the young refugees. While their loss
of livelihoods is disturbing enough, their
deeper sense of disappointment, as
reflected in the findings, underlines the
need for finding alternate and lasting
solutions to restore their optimism.
For nine years now, the Arab Youth Survey
has provided the world with an annual
snapshot into the hopes and aspirations,
and the fears and concerns, of Arab youth,
providing policymakers and businesses
with evidence-based insights into this
demographic.
This year, our Survey revealed a growing
divide between those young Arabs in
the Gulf states who feel confident and
optimistic about the future, and those
elsewhere who feel windows to
opportunity have been shuttered.
Our additional data on Syrian refugees
adds depth to this theme, providing
insights into those young Arabs whose
future is even more insecure than most.
We are hopeful that the findings from
A Voice for Young Syrian Refugees will
inspire all stakeholders to identity more
tangible solutions in addressing the
challenges faced by young people.
If you haven’t already, after reading these
insights, I invite you to study the full 2017
ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth
Survey, which can be found at www.
arabyouthsurvey.com.
If the sheer scale of the
crisis is worrying, our
findings from this Survey
are sobering. More than
half of the young Syrians
we surveyed – all living in
severe poverty, in cramped
refugee settlements just
miles from their homeland –
say they don’t think they will
ever permanently return to
Syria. More, for this return
to happen, the complex
politics and the wider
strategic implications of
the war and the crisis take
a back seat to a far more
basic need: an end to the
fighting.
Sunil John
Sunil John is the founder and chief executive of ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller. He has been
at the heart of the public relations business in the Middle East for more than two
decades. During this time he has shaped ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller into the benchmark
public relations consultancy in the Arab world. He also leads the agency’s research arm,
PSB Middle East, and its branding and digital marketing subsidiary, Proof ME. Sunil is
the first PR professional in the Middle East to receive the Outstanding Individual
Achievement SABRE Award in the EMEA region from The Holmes Report.
VIEW FROM REFUGEE SETTLEMENTS
REVEALS A GENERATION ADRIFT
Arab Youth Survey 2017 3
6. TOP 5 FINDINGS
01More than half of
young Syrian refugees
say they are unlikely
to return home
permanently
04Syrian refugees are
divided on Iranian and
Russian involvement
in the war and don’t
believe Trump’s
presidency will
change the course
of the conflict
03Young Syrian
refugees view
Canada, US, UAE,
and Germany as
the top countries
to live in
A VOICE FOR YOUNG SYRIAN REFUGEES
02Young Syrian
refugees say that
ending the war and
Daesh leaving Syria
are most critical for
their return home
05Young refugees
agree with their
Arab peers, who
say Daesh is getting
weaker and military
action is not the
only priority in
defeating terror
4 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
8. 01
MORE THAN HALF OF YOUNG
SYRIAN REFUGEES SAY THEY ARE
UNLIKELY TO RETURN HOME
PERMANENTLY
6 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
9. MORE THAN HALF OF YOUNG SYRIAN
REFUGEES SAY THEY ARE UNLIKELY
TO RETURN TO SYRIA PERMANENTLY
IN THE FUTURE
The majority of the young Syrian
refugees interviewed for the Survey in
Lebanon and Jordan believe it is
unlikely that they can ever return to
their homeland.
Asked “How likely are you to
permanently return to Syria in the
future?” 54 per cent said ‘unlikely’, 42
per cent said ‘likely’ and 4 per cent said
they did not know. The split was much
the same for young refugees in both
countries surveyed, with 53 per cent in
the Jordan camp and 55 per cent in the
Lebanon settlement saying it was
unlikely they would ever return to Syria.
How likely are you to permanently return
to Syria in the future?
Arab Youth Survey 2017 7
10. 02
YOUNG SYRIAN REFUGEES SAY
THAT ENDING THE WAR AND DAESH
LEAVING SYRIA ARE MOST CRITICAL
FOR THEIR RETURN TO SYRIA
8 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
11. Nearly half of the young Syrians
surveyed said that the ending of the
civil war was the single most important
prerequisite to them returning home.
Asked ‘Which of the following, if any,
is the most important thing that needs
to happen for you to be able to return
to Syria?’ two answers dominated the
responses: 47 per cent said ‘the war
ends’, while 25 per cent said ‘Daesh
leaves Syria’. Trailing far behind were
‘the economic situation improves’,
chosen by 8 per cent of the
respondents, and ‘Bashar Al Assad
leaves’, chosen by 7 per cent.
NEARLY HALF OF YOUNG SYRIAN REFUGEES
SAY THE WAR ENDING IS THE MOST CRUCIAL
DEVELOPMENT THAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN
FOR THEM TO RETURN
Which of the following, if any, is the most
important thing that needs to happen for
you to be able to return to Syria?
Daesh leaving Syria is seen as more
important than Assad leaving
Arab Youth Survey 2017 9
12. Most young refugees do not consider
President Assad leaving office as a
prerequisite for reaching a peace
agreement. Just over a quarter (27 per
cent) agreed with the statement ‘There
can be no peace agreement as long as
Bashar Al Assad stays in office’ against
71 per cent who agreed that ‘ending
the fighting is more important than
Bashar Al Assad leaving office’, with 2
per cent saying they did not know.
Again, findings were similar between
the two locations, with 70 per cent in
Jordan and 72 per cent in Lebanon
agreeing that ending the fighting was
more important than Assad
leaving office.
MOST YOUNG REFUGEES DO NOT CONSIDER
ASSAD LEAVING OFFICE AS A PREREQUISITE
FOR REACHING A PEACE AGREEMENT
Which of the following is closer to your view?
10 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
13. Many of those surveyed do not believe
that military action alone will resolve
the conflict in Syria. Asked: ‘Which of
the following do you think is the best
way to resolve the ongoing conflict in
Syria?’, 43 per cent said a combination
of political and military solutions; 27
per cent said a military solution; and 26
per cent said a political solution, with 4
per cent saying they did not know.
MANY DO NOT BELIEVE THAT A MILITARY
SOLUTION ALONE IS THE BEST WAY TO RESOLVE
THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA
Which of the following do you think is the best
way to resolve the ongoing conflict in Syria?
Arab Youth Survey 2017 11
14. 03
YOUNG SYRIAN REFUGEES
VIEW CANADA, US, UAE,
AND GERMANY AS THE TOP
COUNTRIES TO LIVE IN
12 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
15. For young Syrians who are seeking to
migrate to another country, North
America is the preferred destination.
Asked: ‘Which country in the world,
other than Syria would you like to live
in?’, 27 per cent said Canada; 23 per
cent said the United States; the United
Arab Emirates and Germany were
chosen by 22 per cent each; France
was the choice for 14 per cent; with
the UK chosen by 13 per cent.
Note: multiple responses were allowed, so findings may not add up to 100 per cent
TOP COUNTRIES SYRIAN REFUGEES
WOULD WANT TO LIVE IN ARE CANADA,
THE US, UAE AND GERMANY
Which country in the world, other than Syria,
would you like to live in? (showing top 6 countries)
Arab Youth Survey 2017 13
16. In another finding relating to
migration, asked about what can be
done to improve their plight, the
majority of refugees, and particularly
men, said that EU governments could
help them most by permitting more
Syrian refugees to enter the EU, rather
than providing financial help to their
host countries (Jordan and Lebanon).
In total, 56 per cent of young refugees
believe the EU opening borders further
would be helpful, against 42 per cent
who felt the EU should provide more
money to Jordan and Lebanon. When
split by gender, two thirds (67 per cent)
of men but only 46 per cent of women
surveyed said permitting more
refugees to enter the EU was the best
way to help; while a third (31 per cent)
of men thought more money to host
nations would help more, against 52
per cent of women.
MOST REFUGEES, PARTICULARLY MEN, THINK EU
GOVERNMENTS CAN HELP THEM MOST BY PERMITTING
MORE SYRIAN REFUGEES TO ENTER THE EU
Which of the following is closer to your view?
“The European Union governments could help Syrian refugees more by...”
14 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
18. 04
SYRIAN REFUGEES ARE DIVIDED ON
IRANIAN AND RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT
IN THE WAR AND DON’T BELIEVE
TRUMP’S PRESIDENCY WILL CHANGE
THE COURSE OF THE CONFLICT
16 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
19. Young Syrian refugees are divided on
whether Russia’s impact on the
conflict is a positive or negative thing,
with those in Jordan more positive
than those in Lebanon
Asked: ‘Do you think Russia helping
Bashar Al Assad had a very positive,
somewhat positive, somewhat negative,
or very negative impact on the Syrian
conflict?’ 49 per cent of all Syrian
refugees said positive, while 46 per cent
said negative, and the rest not knowing.
When split into camps, however, 54 per
cent of those surveyed in Jordan said
‘positive’ against 43 per cent of those
in Lebanon .
YOUNG SYRIAN REFUGEES ARE DIVIDED ON WHETHER
RUSSIA’S IMPACT ON THE CONFLICT IS POSITIVE OR
NEGATIVE, WITH THOSE IN JORDAN MORE POSITIVE
THAN THOSE IN LEBANON
Do you think Russia helping Bashar Al Assad
had a very positive, somewhat positive,
somewhat negative, or very negative impact
on the Syrian conflict?
Arab Youth Survey 2017 17
20. Asked ‘Do you think Iran helping
Bashar Al Assad had a very positive,
somewhat positive, somewhat negative,
or very negative impact on the Syrian
conflict?’, the split was almost
identical with 49 per cent of all Syrian
refugees saying it was positive, while
48 per cent said it was negative, and
the rest did not know.
The split between locations varied
slightly, with 54 per cent of those in
Jordan saying ‘positive’ against 42 per
cent of those in Lebanon.
THE SAME APPLIES TO IRAN’S
SUPPORT FOR ASSAD
Do you think Iran helping Bashar Al Assad
had a very positive, somewhat positive,
somewhat negative, or very negative impact
on the Syrian conflict?
18 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
21. The majority (66 per cent) of young
Syrian refugees surveyed said they
don’t believe Donald Trump’s
presidency will change the course of
the conflict with one in four (23 per
cent) expecting it to get worse.
THE MAJORITY DON’T BELIEVE DONALD
TRUMP’S PRESIDENCY WILL CHANGE THE
COURSE OF THE CONFLICT WITH ONE IN
FOUR EXPECTING IT TO GET WORSE
Which of the following is closer to your view?
“Under the presidency of Donald Trump, the
Syrian conflict will…”
Arab Youth Survey 2017 19
22. 05
YOUNG REFUGEES AGREE WITH
THEIR ARAB PEERS, WHO SAY DAESH
IS GETTING WEAKER AND MILITARY
ACTION IS NOT THE ONLY PRIORITY IN
DEFEATING TERROR
20 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
23. This question compared the views of
young Syrian refugees with their peers
in the wider Middle East, as gauged by
the 9th annual ASDA’A Burson-
Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2017.
Asked whether Daesh had become
stronger or weaker over the past year,
77 per cent of young Syrian refugees
believed the terrorist group had
become weaker, while 19 per cent
believed it was growing stronger.
In the Jordan camp, 84 per cent
believed Daesh was getting weaker,
against just 15 per cent who felt it was
growing stronger; in Lebanon, 71 per
cent said ‘weaker’ and 23 per cent
‘stronger’. Overall, Syrian youth – and
especially those in Jordan – are more
convinced than their peers in the Middle
East as a whole that Daesh is getting
weaker. In the 2017 Arab Youth Survey,
61 per cent of youth said Daesh was
getting weaker, while nearly a third (31
per cent) said it was growing stronger.
LIKE THE WIDER ARAB YOUTH, YOUNG
SYRIAN REFUGEES THINK DAESH HAS
BECOME WEAKER
Over the past year, do you think Daesh has
become significantly stronger, somewhat
stronger, somewhat weaker, significantly
weaker, or neither stronger nor weaker?
Arab Youth Survey 2017 21
24. Young Syrians also broadly agree with
their peers in believing that military
action alone is not sufficient to defeat
Daesh. Among Syrian refugees, 18 per
cent said informing the public through
media campaigns that Daesh’s ideology
has nothing to do with Islam was the
most important tool to defeat
extremism, against 12 per cent for
young Arabs as a whole. Military action
and educational reform were each
chosen by 16 per cent of young Syrian
refugees, compared with 13 per cent
each for all young Arabs; and creating
more well-paying jobs was chosen by
12 per cent of both the young refugees
and wider Arab youth.
DEBUNKING ISIS IDEOLOGY, MILITARY ACTION,
EDUCATIONAL REFORM AND ADDRESSING YOUTH
UNEMPLOYMENT ARE SEEN AS THE PRIORITIES
IN THE FIGHT AGAINST DAESH
Which of the following, if any, do you think
should be the top priority in the fight against
Daesh and terrorism in general?
22 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
26. ABOUT US
Established in 2000, ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller is the region’s
leading public relations consultancy, with 11 fully-owned
offices and six affiliates across the Middle East and North
Africa. The agency provides services to governments,
multinational businesses and regional corporate clients and
institutions, operating five specialist communication practices
– Brand Communication, Corporate, Financial, Enterprise &
Technology and Public Affairs. A digital, design and marketing
subsidiary – Proof ME, and a full-service research insights
agency – PSB Research Middle East – complete the offering.
ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller is part of the global Burson-
Marsteller network and a WPP company.
asdaabm.com
PSB Research, a member of Young & Rubicam Group and the
WPP Group, is a global research-based consultancy that
specialises in messaging and communications strategy for
blue-chip political, corporate and entertainment clients. PSB’s
operations include over 200 consultants and a sophisticated
in-house market research infrastructure with the capability to
conduct work in over 90 countries. The company operates
offices in Washington DC, New York, London, Seattle, Los
Angeles, Dubai, Madrid and Denver, which are supported by an
in-house fielding capability and are fully equipped to provide
the complete creative solutions PSB clients need.
psbresearch.com
Proof Middle East, a subsidiary of ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller,
brings a whole new approach to communications that
leverages cutting-edge skills in branding, design, digital
and social media. From informed social media strategy to
compelling websites and creative ads, annual reports and
more, Proof helps our clients connect, engage and deliver
business results.
proofic-me.com
WPP is the world’s largest communications services group
with billings of US$73 billion and revenues of US$19 billion.
Through its operating companies, the group provides a
comprehensive range of advertising and marketing services
including advertising & media investment management; data
investment management; public relations & public affairs;
branding & identity; healthcare communications; direct,
digital, promotion & relationship marketing and specialist
communications. The company employs nearly 190,000 people
(including associates and investments) in over 3,000 offices
across 112 countries.
wpp.com
24 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller
27. SYRIAN REFUGEE DATA
SYRIAN REFUGEES: AN OVERVIEW
5.05 million
Total registered Syrian refugees
18.5 million
Population (2015 Est)
50%
Unemployment rate (2016)
$50.28 billion
GDP by PPP (2015 Est)
35.8%
Youth unemployment rate (2016)
$226 billion
Cost of 6-year civil war to Syrian economy
Decline in crude oil production:
98% from 385,000 bpd in 2010 to
8,000 bpd in 2017
Source: UNHCR Statistics 2017
Sources: The World Bank, The World Fact Book, UNRWA, AFP
660,315
Syrian refugees in Jordan
1.01 million
Syrian refugees in Lebanon
DEMOGRAPHY
SYRIA SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Total camp population
481,796 (10%)
51.5%
Total
25.5%
Age 18-59
Total urban, peri-urban, and rural population
4,576,190 (90%)
48.5%
Total
23.8%
Age 18-59
Male Female
Arab Youth Survey 2017 25