2013-03-21

1. Transmilenio Bogotá – Evolution and
challenges for the future
Juan Pablo Bocarejo, PhD
Associate professor Universidad de Los Andes
SUR
Grupo de Estudios
En Sostenibilidad
Urbana y Regional
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2. Agenda
1. Transmilenio basics
2. Where should we be
3. Challenges
4. Research onTransmilenio
2

3. 1. Basics
3

4. 1. Basics
Characteristics PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3
Corridors 3 3 4
Length of segregated lanes (Km) 42,4 42,3 31,6
Number of stations 57 52 35
Number of terminals 4 3 3
Number of feeder zones 7 5 3
Length of feeders lanes (Km) 346 100 --
4

5. 1. Basics
Articulated bus fleet
1.290
1.254
1.135
1.071 1.076
1.001
749
Feeder buses fleet 609
513 517 518
427
388 398
336
275
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
5

6. 1. Basics
2,00
Passengers per day in the system
1,80
1,73
1,66
1,60
1,58
1,40 1,47
Passengers (millions)
1,34
1,20
1,24
1,00 1,07
0,97 0,84 0,87
0,80
0,81 0,79
0,74 0,75
0,60
0,61 0,62
0,40 0,43 0,53
0,47
0,41
0,35
0,20
0,12
0,00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Segregated Lanes Feeder Lanes
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7. 1. Basics
Too Insufficient
Perception score of the system
Blockin
g
space
successful? Poor
information
access/
exit
5 Open
4,6
Institutional 4,5
4,1 4,1
doors –
risk of
4 3,7 accidents
stability 3,5 3,3
3,6
3,4
3,2
3 3
3 2,8
Financial Score 2,5
Poor
2
signaling
restrictions? 1,5
1
Delayed 0,5
0
expansion? 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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8. 1. Basics
Accident Reduction 800
675
B/A Transmilenio 700
621
568 534
600
Accidents in the system
491
Av. Caracas: 60% 500 439
419
AV. NQS: 48% 400 Proportion of the total number of
accidents/incidents
1.9%
1.7%
300 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1,3% 1,3%
200
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
12 11
Injured in the system
1.000
Deaths in the system
10 763 760
800 652
8 592 617
6 6 600 514 544
6 5 5 5
4 400
2
2 200
0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year Year
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9. 2. Where should we be?
22 corridors of BRT in 15 years?
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10. 2. Where should we be?
Metro + BRT + LRT?
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11. 3. Challenges
• Improve the existing system
• Equity – Accessibility issues
• SITP
• Rail technologies
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12. 3. Challenges
• Improve the existing system
– Operational optimization
– Simplify
– Fare collection system
– Use information
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13. 3. Challenges
• Equity - Accessibility
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14. 3. Challenges
SITP
• An integrated system including
Transmilenio network (28%
share) and buses in mixed traffic
(72%)
• A centralized regulation
(Transmilenio S.A)
• Contracts with strong bus
companies
• Integrated fare system
• ITS for operation optimization
• Investment in terminals
• A mixed retribution system to
operators
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15. 3. Challenges
SITP
• Operation concessions awarded to 9
companies
• Technology concession awarded
• Gradual and “calm” Implementation
• Institutional strengthening
• Financing and investments by private
companies
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16. 3. Challenges
• Opposite to TS
• SITP – Not a radical change in route design
– No big bang.. A “gradual” change …
– The devil too gradual
“Transantiago” – A “strong” institution
• Some common mistakes
– No infrastructure
– Drastic reduction of fleet
– Pressure on mass transit system
• Some original mistakes
– A 24 year concession
– High cost of indemnity
– Pressure on Transmilenio
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17. 3. Challenges
• The heart of the Air Quality Improvement
Policy
Change in emissions- PM2,5
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18. 3. Challenges
Cra 7a
E2: 92 ug/m3.h E1: 9 ug/m3.h E2: 15 ug/m3.h E1: 6 ug/m3.h
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
60
79% reduction 80
60
40
40
20 20
0 0
En Vehículo En el andén En Vehículo En el andén
Concentración (ug/m3) Tiempo (min) Exposición (ug/m3.h)
Concentración Tiempo (min) Exposición en espera
Exposure WITHOUT SITP: 101 ug/m3.h Exposure SITP: 21 ug/m3.h

19. 3. Challenges
• Rail
– A 25 km metro line, carrying 7% of
public transport demand
– Lower demand than Transmilenio
– A LRT network of 60 km?
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20. 3. Research on Transmilenio
Transmilenio and
density
We showed that
Transmilenio was a
significant variable
influencing density
growth
We showed that free
market and not land
regulation lead
changes in Bogota
An unsettling
question on housing
quality and tradeoffs
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21. 3. Research on Transmilenio
Transmilenio and
accessibility
We proposed a way to
evaluate equity issues
trough calculation of
accessibility to employment
We showed that low income
population had a better
accessibility with a subsidy
policy than with
Transmilenio Phase 3
We showed that the effort of
all social classes to access
employment was much
higher than the willingness
to spend time and money
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22. 3. Research on Transmilenio
Impact of Bus Rapid Transit Systems on Road Safety
Lessons from Bogotá, Colombia
Juan Pablo Bocarejo, Juan Miguel Velasquez, Claudia Andrea Díaz, and Luis
Eduardo Tafur Transmilenio and road safety
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2317, Transportation
Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2012, pp. 1–7. We used GIS tools to
DOI: 10.3141/2317-01
analyze the changes in
accident patterns before and
after Transmilenio
Critical links changed
drastically after
Transmilenio, but remained
similar afterwards
We could not find a
relationship between critical
accidents and station
attendance
BRT on high speed roads
produced different patterns
and higher hot spots than in
signalized corridors.
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23. 3. Research on Transmilenio
Congestion cost in mass transit systems Case Study Bogota´s BRT
Guerra G., Bocarejo JP
Transmilenio and
congestion
We calculated the social
cost of congestion in
Transmilenio to be US$
7000 in peak hour
We showed that to obtain
an optimal situation, bus
occupancy should be 5,4
pas/m2 and not 6,3
pas/m2 according to a
SPS.
We proposed a way to
calculate an investment
in comfort that would
eliminate the congestion
cost.
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24. 3. Research on Transmilenio
TRANSMILENIO BRT CAPACITY DETERMINATION USING A MICRO-SIMULATION
MODEL IN VISSIM
ORTIZ MA, BOCAREJO JP
WCTR, 2013 Transmilenio and road safety
We showed that including
stochasticity and
randomness using a micro-
simulation tool the
estimation of the BRT
capacity changed
The micro-simulation
showed that the sum of stop
points capacities in a station
is different to the capacity of
the simultaneous operation
Capacity of a system with
express routes is not the
sum of the individual
capacity. Depending of the
number of express buses,
capacity curve will vary
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25. 3. Research on Transmilenio
ROUTE CHOICE IN TRANSMILENIO
ESCOBAR D., LLERAS G.
Transmilenio and route
selection
We showed that most of
TM users do not consider
more than one route
option
Users are not aware of
the available options
Transmilenio offers for
their trip
Congestion in stations
induces different travel
decisions
Available Lack of information
9%
options generates suboptimal
2%
decisions
27%
62%
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