HVACR 2013 - Analysing world markets

Global Trends in
Air Conditioning
Anette M Holley
AHR, 29th Jan
2013

2
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
 Current factors affecting AC markets
 Global trends
 US vs other regions
– product winners and losers
– market dynamic
– key companies
– geographical growth and recovery; where to focus next?
 2012 – Global refrigeration
2

3
Excellence in Market Intelligence 3
Changes in the Global AC market, 2012 –
Importance
Urgency
The rise of VRF
share
Move to heat
pumps
Consolidation
of competitors
New refrigerants;
R32 +?
Vertical
segmentation
Growth in
inverters
ERP- directive
Continued
crises
Smaller
compact
solutions
Oil
free/Turbocor
chiller
solutions

4
Smart building and
building service
integration
US Market Drivers and Restraints
4
Sluggish
economic growth
Slow recovery of
new construction
Falling gas
prices with
oversupply
Accelerated
replacement cycle
after R22 phase out
Energy conservation driver and
SEER/EER regional standards
Recovery of demand
Ductless market growth
Increasing
competitive
pressure and
lower margins
Market becoming less
‘insular’

5
Excellence in Market Intelligence 5
Daikin becomes the first non-US company to have a full coverage of the HVAC market by
end user and by applications
Residential: Ducted
(Goodman) and ductless
Light commercial: ductless
and unitary
(Goodman/McQuay)
Commercial and Industrial:
Chiller + AHU + Fan coil
(McQuay)
Residential heating: heat
pumps air to air and air to
water (Daikin and Goodman)
Eco solutions for residential
and commercial: energy
efficient ductless, chillers and
heat pumps
What’s is missing? Control range, refrigeration and
vertical integration in commercial and industrial HVAC

6
Competitive Landscape Trends in the US
6
 Increased focus on the US market from Asian OEMs will generate:
o Chinese branded presence in the residential market, primarily window and PTACs;
o Strengthening of the Korean OEM presence in the residential market;
o Further increase of the Japanese OEM market share in both residential and
commercial market
o Possible OEM agreements and Asian acquisitions of US companies
 US OEMs will look at expanding presence in other markets primarily Latin America.

7
World air conditioning market, 2012
7
Value (US$m)
Volume (units)
Total 2012:
111,763,938 units
Total 2012:
US$88.4 billion

8
US market, value (US$m), 2012
 No. 3 after China and Japan
 No. 1 for Windows and Moveables
 No. 1 for Rooftops
 No. 1 for US-style splits
 No. 2 for Chillers after China
 No. 8 for Indoor packaged
 No. 4 for VRF
 No. 11 for Splits (single & multi)
8
Total 2012:
US$12,852.0 million

9
Definitions III: US-style ducted vs. Japanese-
style ducted
9
US Style Ducted Installation
• The picture below shows typical indoor and outdoor
installation for USA ducted splits.
• Often these systems have a furnace, but in the
southern states of the US, the systems is connected
to the air handler. The houses are built around a
central column space, and in that column space the
air handler is found at the beginning of the main duct.
On the other side of ducts grilles are diffusing air to
all the rooms.
Japanese Style Split Installation
Single split Standard 1 to 1 outdoor unit
• Connected by two refrigerant pipes and electrical
connections to one indoor unit.
• The larger capacity units tend to be taller rather than
wider
Multi split:
• One outdoor unit connected to up to 5 indoor units by
means of the required number of pipework sets.
• Each indoor unit has its own pair of refrigerant pipes
and electrical connections.

10
World air conditioning market by product, 2012
10
Value (US$M) Volume
Total:
US$88.4 billion
Total:
111.8 million units

11
World air conditioning market by country, 2012
11
Value (US$M) Volume
Total:
US$88.4 billion
Total:
111.8 million units

12
World air conditioning market, volume, 2012
12
USA Europe China
Total: 43.7m unitsTotal: 17.0m units Total: 9.0m units

13
World VRF market volume, 2012
13
VRF
Chillers

14
World hot and cold spots by volume, 2012
14
Warm spots >10-20% growth
Cold spots <0% growth
Hot spots >20% growth
Russia
Ukraine
Egypt
Turkey
India
Venezuela
Dominican Rep. Morocco
Italy
Argentina
China
Japan
South Korea
Thailand
Indonesia
Uruguay
Chile

15
AC growth rate in Europe, 2012
15
9%-22%
-1% -30%

16
World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2012-15
16
Warm spots >10-20% growth
Cold spots <0% growth
Hot spots >20% growth
Uruguay
Venezuela
Brazil
Chile
Panama
Dominican Rep.
Cuba
Bolivia
Romania
Russia
UK Belgium
ItalySpain
Switzerland
Indonesia
Morocco

17
AC growth rate in Latin America, 2012
17
Argentina
US$668.8m
Brazil
US$1816.0m
Mexico
US$610.0m
Venezuela
US$440.6m
Chile
US$267.4m
Colombia
US$96.4m
Puerto Rico
US$77.9m
USA
Total LA
Brazil
Venezuela
Chile
Argentina
Colombia
Mexico
Puerto Rico
7.7%
12.3%
14.2%
14.2%
13.7%
8.3%
7.7%
7.4%
4.1%
CAGR 2012-2015

18
Americas AC market, 2012
18

19
Growth prospects for splits and chillers,
2012-2015
19
Splits by volume Chillers by value

BSRIA
Global
Refrigeration
studies

21
Commercial & industrial refrigeration
 In-depth re-ports in 9 countries with
global overview
21
Research being finalised; draft coming in
and will be published from April 2012

22
Trends in refrigeration
22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Scroll
Reciprocating
Screw
Centrifugal
Rotary
Industrial Ref Share
JCI
GEA
Vilter
Mycom
Other
US$M
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
Mono blocks
Bi-blocks
Unit coolers
Air cooled condensers
/ dry coolers
Industrial distribution
cold stores
Integral cabinets
Remote cabinets
Small cold rooms
Process chillers
Bottle coolers, Reach-
ins

23
Contact details
23
Thank you
Anette Meyer Holley
General Manager, VACR and Consultancy
+44 (0) 1344 465636
anette.meyer.holley@bsria.co.uk

HVACR 2013 - Analysing world markets

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