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1. Future Emerging Market of Recreational Marijuana in the
American State of New York
Research by Sarah Gojecki

2. New York
 Rapid increase of in private sector jobs:
2.9% since February 2014
 Financial capital of the world
New York Entrepreneurial Advantages:
 Important business spirit
 Direct access to capital
 Major innovative drive

3. Social Behaviour
Consumption Comparison to Alcohol
Society’s Support
Recreational Consumption
Health Consequences
Social Surplus

4. Consumption Comparison to Alcohol
“As has been well
documented, I smoked pot
as a kid, and I view it as a
bad habit and a vice, not
very different from the
cigarettes that I smoked as
a young person up through
a big chunk of my adult
life. I don’t think it is more
dangerous than alcohol”
-Barak Obama
Freeman, N. (8 Feb 2011). Parliament Lights No More! President Obama Finally Quits
Smoking. Observer. Retrieved from http://observer.com/2011/02/parliament-lights-
no-more-president-obama-finally-quits-smoking/

5. Consumption Comparison to Alcohol
 Alcohol Prohibition will help our prediction on the legalisation effect on
recreational consumption of cannabis
 Marijuana prohibition has been just as ineffective, inefficient, and
problematic as alcohol prohibition (Effective Arguments …, 2014)
 Legalization is providing a less harmful alternative to alcohol

6. Society’s Support
Alcohol is socially accepted

7. Society’s Approach
Media exposure to marijuana.

8. Social Behavior Comparison
Grandmas Smoking Marijuana for the
First Time
Jon Stewart highlights the irony of some
statements in the media
Today we are experiencing a shift of social norms.
Consuming cannabis is on the way to be socially acceptable

9. Society’s Support
The great pot experiment, Legalising a drug is harder than it looks. (12 July 2014).
The Economist. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/news/united-
states/21606851-legalising-drug-harder-it-looks-great-pot-experiment
A shift is currently happening
concerning the way society views
marijuana consumption.
Increase the size of the market

10. Recreational Consumption
Keloland Attacks Medical Cannabis, Ignores Real Drug Crimes
and Real Issues. (8 Ap 2015). Dakotazfreepress. Retrieved
from http://dakotazfreepress.com/2015/04/08/keloland-
attacks-medical-cannabis-ignores-real-drug-crimes-and-real-
issues/
• THC, or tetrahydrocannabinol, is the chemical
responsible for most of marijuana's psychological
effects.
• THC stimulates cells in the brain to release
dopamine, creating euphoria
• Users typically smoke to obtain a "high"
Substitutes Complements

11. Social Behavior Comparison
Alcohol and Marijuana are both
 consumed in a social environment
 social ‘tools’ bringing people together
Alcohol and Marijuna are nonetheless a drug:
 affect normal thinking process
 have benefits and consequences due to consumption
No overdose death due to marijuana
 marijuana might be a preferred
substance the long-run
 transfer part of the value from
alcohol industry to recreational
marijuana industry

12. Social Surplus
“The current feeling is a bit like the
dotcom or the green-tech booms […] only
it also brings freedom and saves money
in criminalization. This industry is going
to make the world a safer place. It'll also
create a lot of work in post-recession
America”
-Troy Dayton, co-founder and chief executive of
cannabis investment company the ArcView Group
Transparent transactions from taxes on
marijuana increase the image of the
industry and will most likely yield in a
higher demand.

13. Legal Overview
 2005
 Colorado legalized marijuana
 Washington legalized marijuana
 2014
 New York decriminalized marijuana
 2015
 February
 Washington D.C. legalized marijuana
 Alaska legalized marijuana
 July
 Orgeon legalized marijuana
NELSON, S. (12 November 2014). Pot Legalization: Gateway to What? U.S. News. Retrieved from
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/11/12/pot-legalization-gateway-to-what

14. Demand and Supply
Disposable
Income
Government
Regulations

15. Competitive Landscape
• Limited number of licenses
• High price of licenses
• High number of applicants
High Competition
• Each business must grow 70% of its marijuana
• Barriers to entry in the industry increase

16. Products
Innovative delivery systems for THC:
Edibles provide a more convenient and
familiar product to consumers, thereby
stimulating consumer demand for
marijuana products.

17. Industry Performance
 Legalization of recreational marijuana
cultivation contributed to the boom
during the 2014 year, as revenue rose
an astounding 54.7% (Industry
Performance, 2015).
 Investable market is valued at nearly
$3 billion
Industry Performance. (2015). IBIS World.

18. Industry Performance
 Industry is currently in the quality
growth of its life cycle
 Growing at a faster rate than the US
economy
 Recreational marijuana cultivation
contributed to the boom during the
2014 year
 revenue rose an astounding 54.7%
Industry Outlook. (2015). IBIS World.

19. Investment Opportunities
“I never thought I’d see more people invest in marijuana than smoke it”
-Fidelman
FIDELMAN, M. (11 April 2014). Why Legalizing Medical Marijuana Will Make Investors Extremely Wealthy. Forbes. Retrieved
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markfidelman/2014/11/04/why-legalizing-medical-marijuana-will-make-investors-extremely-wealthy/2/
• The illegal marijuana market
is valued at $50 billion
•The legal, investable market
is valued at nearly $3 billion
Considering, the minimum of
10 states planning on passing
legalization in the near future
 important transfer in value
from the illegal to the legal
market.

20. Investment Opportunities
Different sectors of investment may
be thought of when it comes to
federal legalization as cannabis as
a whole is currently illegal.
Hemp may be used to make:
 Textiles
 Paper
 Paints
 Clothing
 Plastics
 Cosmetics
 Animal feed
 Other..
How to distinguish marijuana males from females. (2001). Alchimia. Retrieved from
http://www.alchimiaweb.com/blogen/distinguish-marijuana-males-females/
Cannabis
Hemp Marijuana

21. Risks
“But this has
never been
done before.
There is no
Marijuana
Business for
Dummies
book”
-Tripp Keber
REMNICK, D. (27 January, 2014).
Going the Distance. The New
Yorker. Retrieved from
http://www.newyorker.com/mag
azine/2014/01/27/going-the-
distance-2
Newness of the industry  Uncertainty
“Although the industry itself is expected to grow like
a weed, the vast majority of companies operating
in it are unprofitable, and most have terrible
balance sheets”
-Kristof
KRISTOF, K. (2014). Just Say No. Kiplinger's Personal Finance, 68(4), 35.

22. Prediction Future Market
How many people will be
consuming marijuana, and
how much? What states
stand to benefit most from
growing it? Will big business
take over its production and
sale, or will it remain in the
hands of independent
growers and dealers? And
how large, in dollar terms,
might this whole sector end
up?
U.S. retail cannabis sales are estimated to rise
more than five-fold over the next five
From an estimated $2.2-$2.6 billion in 2014
to $7.4-8.2 billion in 2018
Balancing Convergence
lose interest
in marijuana:
'forbidden
fruit' aspect"
removed
consume
larger
quantities
because it is
now legal

23. Federal Legalization
 Would allow to
 Do business in more than one
state
 Transport product across
state lines
 Open a bank account
 banks obey regulations laid
down at the federal level

24. Federal Legalization
“It is important that tobacco
control advocates and the public
understand the clandestine
research and analyses that the
tobacco industry has conducted
regarding potential marijuana
legalization as well as the
tobacco industry’s role in
turning cigarettes into the
world’s most widely used
delivery system for the addictive
drug nicotine, the leading
preventable cause of death, to
prevent the industry from
repeating this history with
marijuana if given the
opportunity”
-Barry et al.
BARRY, R. A., HIILAMO, H., & GLANTZ, S. A. (2014). Waiting for
the Opportune Moment: The Tobacco Industry and Marijuana
Legalization. Milbank Quarterly, 92(2), 207-242.
doi:10.1111/1468-0009.12055
The entrance of existing big corporations in the
market would have an important impact on
existing shops and would also change the majority
of the competitive landscape characteristics.
Federal ban acted as an
infant industry
protection allowing
businesses to learn by
doing.
Federal legalization
would force businesses
to face an international
competition.

25. New York’s Eventual Legalization
 New tourism opportunity
 Job creation
 Increase real estate market
 Increase State’s GDP
 New York can learn from Colorado and
Washington mistakes and reduce short-
term time adaptation
New York would rapidly become
the most important state in the
recreational marijuana business.