This document summarizes key trends presented by Matt Carmichael at an event on talent retention and attraction in Lake County. Some of the major trends discussed include: millennials surpassing baby boomers as the largest share of the workforce; declining marriage and birth rates but people having families later in life; increasing diversity and number of millennials living with parents. The presentation emphasizes that placemaking efforts should focus on creating inclusive, engaged communities with good schools and commuting options to attract and retain talent, especially millennials who are increasingly mobile for jobs.

1. Welcome!
@mcarmichael
#LCPBigEvent
keytrends.us

2. Not all trends are equal.
In fact, some “trends” are
really just an anecdote or
two thrown together.
This talk will focus on
Trends with
a capital “T”

3. Trends are
complicated beasts.
Trends can have
five components:
Demographic,
Economic, Cultural,
Technological and
Geographic.

4. 25x25Key trends in Lake County and the
nation that impact talent retention and
attraction

5. When asked to “imagine a millennial”
87% think of this guy

6. 37% have a college degree
Most educated generation, but still 63% don’t have a degree
49% are women
and the women are more educated then the men
34% of homebuyers
The largest portion of all current home buyers
Millennials: Not all the same
And yet, that’s typically how we treat them

7. 45% haven’t posted a selfie
but come on, these are bad millennials
39% voted for Trump
Millennial turn-out was lower than in 2008-12
Millennials: The Unexpected
There is as much myth as reality
20% live in poverty
but not because of avocado toast

8. 85+75-8465-7455-6445-5435-4430-3425-2920-2418–1915-1710–145 –90–5
White Black Hispanic Asian Multi
Diversity is reality
There is no “typical” American household
44%of millennials
Each successive
generation is more
diverse than its
predecessor. The iGen is
almost 50% minority. For
the kids being born today,
and entering the schools
tomorrow, there is no
ethnic or racial majority.
are non-White
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: US Census Bureau, Pew Research

9. 31.9
19.9
14.7
22.9
6.1
15.6
3.1
5.9
0.07
9.2
1975 (millions) 2016
Spouse Parents at home Other Alone Unmarried partner
Millennials really are different
The question of course, is why and how
31%of millennials
This is greater than the
percent living with a
spouse (31% vs 27%). In
1975 those numbers
were radically different
(26% 57%). Historian
Neil Howe thinks this is a
return to more normal
human behavior.
live with their parents
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: US Census Bureau, Pew Research

10. 0
20
40
60
80
100 % with a driver’s license 1983 and 2014
Delayed driver’s license
Simply put, fewer are getting licenses and getting them later.
10-15%fewer
millennials have their license
…than that age cohort
did just 30 years ago.
That doesn’t mean no
one is driving, but when
you go from essentially
everyone to less than
that, it’s a trend worth
watching.
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Autotrader

11. 9.4 9.3
9 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.9
8.4 8.6
8.2 8.2 8
7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.1
6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06*
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
Marriage rate
(per 1,000)
29.3
For women, it’s 27 years old.
Since 1956, that’s risen about
seven years.
This is not a new trend,
therefore but it continues to
grow. It’s up about three years
since 1990.
Median age of men’s first marriage
Marriage rates are declining
This has been going on for quite some time
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: cdc.gov, US Census Bureau

12. 3.3
4.1
4.7
5.7
6.7 6.9
7.3
7.7
8.2
8.9
9.4
10.6
10.9
10.6 10.4
11.
Birth rate (per 1,000 for women in their late 30s)
26.3
The mean age for women
is increasing, partially
because of a drop in teen
births, partially because
of a rise in older women
having kids.
Mean age of first birth
We’re having kids later
And we’re having fewer of them

13. 12,000
The “delays” are already
catching up to this
generation as more and
more are getting married,
having kids, buying
homes and cars. Just
later, fewer and smaller.
millennials turn 30 each day
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: US Census Bureau

14. "I think [millennials] just think, 'Oh, I'm going to go to college and I'm going
to get a job and things are going to work out well for me because I'm
entitled to that. In reality that 's not what happens to everyone, so I think
that we just kind of look like these lazy, entitled, very bratty and obnoxious. On
the same token … we are going to take to the streets and take back what is ours
and do what we want and make change. We aren't going to stand for anything
less, and want equality and want better for ourselves.”
-Liz, a Millennial in Champaign, IL

15. How we think of Boomers
Worldwide, everyone thinks well of this generation
54%
49%
45%
39%
33%
Boomers are…
Respectful
Work-centric
Community
Oriented
Ethical
Educated
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: Ipsos Global Trends Study

16. How we think of Millennials
Worldwide, everyone thinks poorly of this generation
54%
45%
39%
34% 33%
Millennials are…
Tech-savvy
Materialistic
Selfish
Lazy
Arrogant
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: Ipsos Global Trends Study

17. theme slide

18. 54 million millennials now make up the
largest share of the workforce (34%)

19. Every place – except one
is worried about talent
attraction

21. Trends are made to be bucked

22. “[Deerfield] gives our employees many options to
live in either an urban or suburban environment.
We know we have to compete for the best talent
to grow our company. This location will appeal to
our diverse, global team, today and in the future
Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby
”

23. Why do populations change?
There are four components. Migration is an important focus
-400
Population is relatively
flat here, putting it ahead
of much of the Chicago
area. Net out-migration is
a drag on growth, but
immigration helps temper
that. 18% of residents
are foreign-born.
Population change in Lake Co.
49.9
-27
-33.8
10.6
Birth Death Migration Immigration
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: US Census Bureau, Livability.com

25. In Lake County one in five
residents was born elsewhere

26. We’re having few kids
But hey, you can make more anytime
2.4
Moms now average 2.4
kids, which is stable, but
down from the ‘70s
(largely due to fewer 4+
kid families)
Average kids per family
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: Pew

27. Lake County loses residents to other parts of
Illinois, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Lake County also loses residents to typical
retirement destinations like Florida, Arizona and
New Mexico. But gains from parts of Michigan
and Wisconsin too.
Everyone is leaving Illinois! Or are they?
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: US Census Bureau

28. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Same
Town
Same
State
Two
States
Three
States
Four+
States
We are not a mobile society
And we’re getting less so
37%
While about 36 million
people move each year
the about two in three
stay in the same county.
Less than 2% of the
population moves to a
new state in any given
year. Overall, mobility is
decreasing.
In U.S. live in their birthplace
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: Pew

29. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Under
16
16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75+
Family Employment Housing Other
Why we move changes
People in their late 20s and 30s are at peak job-move age
25-29
The Millennials you’re
after are the most likely
to be moving for jobs. So
if you’ve got ‘em, people
will come and get ‘em
the age people will move for jobs
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: US Census Bureau, Livability.com

31. 63%
55%
38%
31% 31%
19%
A better job An income
increase of at
least 20%
Moving
expenses paid
by employer
A year with no
property taxes
An income
increase of at
least 10%
Assitance
finding housing
Millennials can be bought
The question of course, is for how much…
63% would
Livability and Ipsos asked
Millennials about a series
of incentives for interstate
moves. Note, the 20%
and 10% raise questions
were split sample. So
yes, they can be bribed.
change states for a better job
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: Livability.com/Ipsos

32. Hierarchy of Livability
Good places to live have similar features. So do best places
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: Livability.com

33. LEVEL
cities create
an even field
so all residents
can afford to
take part in
the county’s
offerings.
INCLUSIVE
cites
exemplify
diversity, not
just by race
and ethnicity,
but age,
income, and
experience.
VARIETY
in cities means
options in all
facets of life
from housing,
to health care
to amenities.
ENGAGED
residents are
out and about,
helping create
the
community
that truly
matters in a
great place.
L I V E

34. GREAT SCHOOLS
Why do people move? One big reason: Schools. As the
Millennials are heading into their 30s, Lake County has
the opportunity to draw in this key demographic. The
combination of solid schools and access to
transportation, coupled with 12 Fortune 500 HQs and a
wide variety of other businesses, positions it well
compared to other areas in the region.
Play to your strengths
And realize that the messaging needs to shift as Millennials age
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: GreatSchools.org/Zillow

35. COMMUTING
Why do people move? One big reason: Commuting.
Public transportation is convenient and often more
pleasant than sitting in traffic on the Edens, but the thing
is, it takes a long time. Bus routes can especially add
minutes. Commute times in Lake Co. average four
minutes shorter than those in Chicago – just 30 minutes
each way.
Commute times matter
And a combination of public transit and good jobs mean people have live/work options
keytrends.us @mcarmichael
Source: GreatSchools.org/Zillow

36. “Make no little
plans; they have
no magic to stir
men's blood.
–Daniel Burnham
”

38. “
You should
totally make
little plans,
also…
–Matt Carmichael
”

39. The mantra of
placemaking is:
Lighter, Quicker, Cheaper
Use public
and private
backing
Make
great
places
to be

40. think different but don’t think
stupid
This is a bike lane created
by well-intentioned
compromise.
Instead of getting it right,
they got each part just a little
bit wrong.

41. This is a bike lane created
without compromise.
It protects the riders, and
look, it’s being used.

42. Takeaway 1:
Don’t compromise when you’re right

43. Takeaway 2:
Millennials are changing

44. Takeaway 3:
Train and Retain

45. Takeaway 4:
Make better places

46. Takeaway 5:
Be smart, intentional and careful

48. Thank you
See this at: keytrends.us
Tweet: @mcarmichael