Demand forecasting methods ppt bec bagalkot mba

1. MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
Demand Forecasting Methods
Presented by :BABASAB PATIL

2. Demand forecasting
Non statistical
Statistical methods
methods
Market
Survey
Time experiments
Regression method
series
Complete Sample
Trend survey survey
projection Simulated
marketing
Opinion
survey
Graphical Delphi survey
Test
marketing

3. INTRODUCTION
In modern business, production is often
made in anticipation of demand. Anticipation of
demand implies demand forecasting. Forecasting
means expectations about the future course of
development.

4. Meaning of Demand Forecasting
Demand forecasting means expectations about the
future course of the market demand for the product.

5. NON-STATASTICAL METHOD
 SURVEY METHOD
 MARKET EXPERIMENTS

6. SURVEY METHOD
The survey is the most direct approach to demand
forecasting in the short run. It may be a sample
survey or a census inquiry.
A census inquiry means the inquiry of the entire
universe or population.

7. The three variants of the survey
method
 The consumer survey method.
 The collective method.
 Delphi method.

8. The Consumer Survey
A sample survey of the consumers may be
undertaken questioning them about what they are
planning or intending to buy.
Drawbacks of the consumer Survey method
 This method is expensive.
 It is time consuming.

9. The Collective Opinion
Under the collective opinion method the salesmen
have to report to the head office their estimates of
expectations of the sales in the territories.
 The opinion method is cheaper and easy to handle, it is time
consuming also.
Drawback
 High element of bias of the reporting agency.

10. Delphi method
 Olaf helmer originated the Delphi method in the
late 1940s.Delphi method is used for conducting
opinion poll or survey. Under this method, the group
of experts are repeatedly questioned for their
opinion or comments on some issues and their
agreements and disagreements are clearly
identified.

11. MARKET EXPERIMENTATION
Market experiments may be conducted to make certain
specific observations.
The two types of market experimentation
 Experimentation in laboratory.
 Test marketing.

12. EXPERIMENTATION IN
LABORATORY
It is also referred to as the consumer clinic method. In this
method, a consumer clinic or small laboratory is formed by
creating an artificial market situation.

13. TEST MARKETING
In this method a market experiment is performed under
actual market conditions. First a choice of the market for
experiments is made and is segregated from the rest.

14. Statistical Methods
Once market demand data are collected by the marker
survey or form the sales records of the firm demand
forecasting can be possible from such a information.
The Statistical methods
 Time Series Data.
 Trend Projections.
 Regression Analysis.

15. TIME SERIES
Time series data refers to data collected over a period of
time recording historical changes in price, income and
other relevant variables influencing demand for the
commodity.

16. TREND PROJECTIONS
 A time series analysis of sales data over a period of time is
considered to serve as a good guide for sales or demand
forecasting.
Trends refer to the long term persistent movements of data
in one direction –upward or downward.

17. Thank you