2016 outlook for construction markstein dc chapter neca feb 17 2016
•
1 j'aime•311 vues
Presentation to the Washington, D.C. Chapter of the National Electrical Contractors Association (NECA), Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Recommandé
Recommandé
Contenu connexe
Tendances
Tendances (20)
Similaire à 2016 outlook for construction markstein dc chapter neca feb 17 2016
Similaire à 2016 outlook for construction markstein dc chapter neca feb 17 2016 (20)
Plus de Bernard (Bernie) Markstein, Ph.D.
Plus de Bernard (Bernie) Markstein, Ph.D. (8)
Dernier
Dernier (20)
2016 outlook for construction markstein dc chapter neca feb 17 2016
- 1. May 7, 2014 2016 Construction Outlook Presented by: Bernard M. Markstein Markstein Advisors Washington, D.C. Chapter NECA Kenwood Country Club Bethesda, Maryland February 17, 2016
- 3. Markstein Advisors 3 Economy growing, but should be better Employment growing, but should be faster Inflation remains moderate Federal Reserve raising interest rates: how high, how fast? Strong dollar: pluses & minuses Energy (oil) prices Overview of the Economy
- 4. Markstein Advisors 4 Washington less of an obstacle, but how much real cooperation are we seeing? China: slow(er) economic growth impact on world economy Europe showing signs of improvement Overview of the Economy
- 5. Markstein Advisors 5 Risks to the Economy Failure to pass needed legislation leads to reduced federal government spending in the near term China Energy (oil) prices Interest rates (the Fed) European government debt default (Greece) The euro (Greece) Russia?
- 7. Markstein Advisors 7 47% 32% 20% 2002 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 53% 29% 18% 2006 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2002 Total - $848 Billion 2006 Total - $1,167 Billion Construction Spending Components Source: U.S. Census Bureau Overview of Construction
- 8. Markstein Advisors 8 53% 29% 18% 2006 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 31% 36% 33% 2010 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2006 Total - $1,167 Billion 2010 Total - $809 Billion Construction Spending Components Source: U.S. Census Bureau Overview of Construction
- 9. Markstein Advisors 9 53% 29% 18% 2006 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 39% 35% 26% 2015 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2006 Total - $1,167 Billion 2015 Total - $1,097 Billion Construction Spending Components Source: U.S. Census Bureau Overview of Construction
- 10. Markstein Advisors 10 47% 32% 20% 2002 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 39% 35% 26% 2015 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2002 Total - $848 Billion 2015 Total - $1,097 Billion Construction Spending Components Source: U.S. Census Bureau Overview of Construction
- 11. Markstein Advisors 11 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction $ Billions History Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Markstein Advisors Forecast Forecast: The Rebound Continues Construction Spending and its Components Overview of Construction
- 13. Markstein Advisors 13 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of Units, SAAR Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade Low Estimate (1.4 million starts per year) Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade High Estimate (1.8 million starts per year) Total Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Shaded areas represent recession Overview of Housing
- 14. Markstein Advisors 14 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of Units, SAAR Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade Low Estimate (250,000 starts per year) Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade High Estimate (350,000 starts per year) 380k Multifamily Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Shaded areas represent recession Overview of Housing
- 15. Markstein Advisors 15 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of Units, SAAR Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade Low Estimate (1.15 million starts per year) Nation’s long-run (trend) need for the next decade High Estimate (1.45 million starts per year) 759k Single-Family Housing Starts (3-Month Moving Average) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Shaded areas represent recession Overview of Housing
- 16. Markstein Advisors 16 402 451 538 618 620 500 367 256 252 253 276 329 375 423 474 545 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 $ Billions History Forecast Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Markstein Advisors Residential Construction Spending
- 17. Markstein Advisors 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Single-Family Multifamily Improvements $ Billions 2006 to 2015 ’16 ’17 Residential Construction Spending Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Markstein Advisors
- 19. Markstein Advisors 19 275 269 283 302 340 404 439 377 292 284 301 303 330 386 398 420 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 $ Billions History Forecast Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Markstein Advisors Nonresidential Construction Spending Nonresidential Construction
- 20. Markstein Advisors 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Hotel/Lodging Office Commercial $ Billions 2006 to 2015 ’16 ’17 Nonresidential Construction Spending Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Markstein Advisors Nonresidential Construction
- 21. Markstein Advisors 21 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Manufacturing Healthcare Education $ Billions 2006 to 2015 ’16 ’17 Nonresidential Construction Spending Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Markstein Advisors Nonresidential Construction
- 23. Markstein Advisors 23 171 171 169 185 208 248 272 274 265 251 274 274 288 288 300 322 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 $ Billions History Forecast Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Markstein Advisors Heavy Engineering Construction Spending Heavy Engineering Construction
- 24. Markstein Advisors 24 The D.C. Region
- 25. Markstein Advisors 25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 U.S. D.C. Philadelphia NYC Boston Chicago LA 2000 to 2015 Total Residential Permits (2000 = 100) Source: U.S. Census Bureau The Region
- 26. Markstein Advisors 26 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 U.S. D.C. Philadelphia NYC Boston Chicago LA 2000 to 2015 Single-Family Residential Permits (2000 = 100) Source: U.S. Census Bureau The Region
- 27. Markstein Advisors 27 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 U.S. D.C. Philadelphia NYC Boston Chicago LA 2000 to 2015 Multifamily Residential Permits (2000 = 100) Source: U.S. Census Bureau The Region
- 28. Markstein Advisors 28 Contact Info and Links Bernard M. Markstein Office: 301-588-5190 bmarkstein@verizon.net LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/in/markstein3 Twitter @BMarkstein