The document summarizes key metrics and trends in the cloud computing industry:
1) The cloud computing market has grown exponentially in recent years, with total cloud revenue increasing over 10x from $5.6 billion in 2008 to $56.6 billion in 2014.
2) Cloud revenue is projected to continue growing rapidly, reaching an estimated $127.5 billion by 2018. Major cloud companies have seen their market capitalizations soar, with the top 10 public cloud companies now worth over $140 billion more than in 2008.
3) Key metrics that public and private investors use to value cloud companies include annual recurring revenue (ARR), ARR growth rates, retention/upsell rates, customer acquisition costs and
Bessemer Venture Partners' 2015 State of the Cloud
1. State of the Cloud Report
2015Byron Deeter
www.bvp.com/cloud
@bdeeter
2. agenda
• State of the Cloud Industry: Where are we today?
• Metrics that matter: How are we doing?
• The outlook ahead: What does it mean for me as a cloud CEO?
2
3. WE’VE HAD SOME SKEPTICS ABOUT CLOUD COMPUTING
THROUGH THE YEARS…
“Mice Nuts”
Vacation time
=
The Innovator’s Dilemma
“Water Vapor” & “Nonsense” “It will be gone in two years”
3
5. 5
Then…
<$25bn
Total Cloud Market Cap
2008 - Top 10 Public Cloud Companies
($ in mm)
Count Company MarketCap
1 Salesforce $7,404
2 Netsuite $2,332
3 Concur $1,590
4 DealerTrack $1,317
5 blackbaud $1,247
6 AthenaHealth $1,161
7 Ariba $805
8 The Ultimate Software $777
9 Taleo $749
10 Constant Contact $594
Source: Public company data per CapIQ. 2008 as of 1/1/2008. Today as of 5/29/2015
6. …now!
Today - Top 10 Public Cloud Companies
($ in mm)
Count Company MarketCap
1 Salesforce $50,537
2 LinkedIn $26,285
3 Workday $16,915
4 ServiceNow $13,517
5 NetSuite $7,728
6 The Ultimate Software Group $4,924
7 Athenahealth $4,819
8 Veeva $4,186
9 Medidata Solutions $3,302
10 Proofpoint $2,847
6
Then…
Source: Public company data per CapIQ. 2008 as of 1/1/2008. Today as of 5/29/2015
<$25bn
Total Cloud Market Cap
~$180bn
Total Cloud Market Cap
2008 - Top 10 Public Cloud Companies
($ in mm)
Count Company MarketCap
1 Salesforce $7,404
2 Netsuite $2,332
3 Concur $1,590
4 DealerTrack $1,317
5 blackbaud $1,247
6 AthenaHealth $1,161
7 Ariba $805
8 The Ultimate Software $777
9 Taleo $749
10 Constant Contact $594
7. Cloud Revenue
Source: Market size IDC, 2014. Public company data per CapIQ. Legacy software cloud revenue per AppsRunTheCloud survey on 2013 revenue and
assumed growth cut in half for 2014. Private cloud unicorn data assuming average 20x rev multiple. 2008 market size from Forrester.
2008
7
$5.6bn
8. Cloud Revenue up 10x in last six years
Source: Market size IDC, 2014. Public company data per CapIQ. Legacy software cloud revenue per AppsRunTheCloud survey on 2013
revenue and assumed half’d growth for 2014. Private cloud unicorn data assuming average 20x rev multiple. 2008 market size from
Forrester.
8
$18bn
$9bn
$3bn
$26bn
$56.6bn
Public Pure Play
Cloud
Legacy Software
Cloud Revenue
Private Cloud
Unicorns
Private Cloud
2008 2014
$5.6bn
CAGR 35.8%
9. Cloud Revenue up 10x in last six years
Projected to grow over2x in next four
$18bn
$9bn
$3bn
$26bn
$56.6bn
CAGR 22.8%
% of
Total
Number of
Companies
47%
5%
17%
32%
thousands
28
11
42
Source: Market size IDC, 2014. Public company data per CapIQ. Legacy software cloud revenue per AppsRunTheCloud survey on 2013
revenue and assumed half’d growth for 2014. Private cloud unicorn data assuming average 20x rev multiple. 2008 market size from
Forrester.
Public Pure Play
Cloud
Legacy Software
Cloud Revenue
Private Cloud
Unicorns
Private Cloud
2008 20182014
$5.6bn
CAGR 35.8%
$127.5bn
9
10. Saas Approaching 30% of Application Spend
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
On Prem SaaS
Source: IDC, Worldwide Enterprise Application Spend by SaaS and On-Prem, 2013-2018.
2013 -2018 CAGR
(2.8%)
17.6%
SaaS vs On Prem Penetration into Total Application Spend
10
11. The first category has fallen: Cloud
CRMIs At A Tipping Point
2013 -2018
CAGR
19.6%
(3.9%)
2013 2016 2018
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
65%
50% 38%
35%
50% 62%
On-Prem Cloud
Source: IDC, Worldwide Enterprise Application Spend by SaaS and On-Prem,
2013-2018. Gartner Worldwide CRM Spending By Vendor, 2013.
16%
13%
10%
7%4%
50%
Salesforce SAP Oracle
Microsoft IBM Other
Source: IDC, Worldwide Enterprise Application Spend by SaaS and On-Prem,
2013-2018. Gartner Worldwide CRM Spending By Vendor, 2013.
Over 50% of CRM revenue will be cloud In 2016… …and Salesforce is already the market share leader!
11
13. We’re Just Seeing the Tip of the Iceberg!
42 Public Pure Play
Cloud Companies
28 Private Cloud
Unicorns
thousands Existing Private Cloud
Companies
? New Cloud Companies Yet To
Be Formed!
Only 3 % Penetrated
in IT Spend
Source: Gartner, estimates per 2013. Cloud spend of $39bn includes SaaS, PaaS and IaaS. Overall IT spend of $1.428tn
includes Data Center Systems, Enterprise Software and IT Services
14. 300 Up and Comers Identified In The Cloudscape…
14
Originally published in 2014. Updated versions will be available at www.bvp.com/cloud
15. ...28 of Which Have Grown Into
Private Cloud $1b+ businesses …
Dropbox InsideSales.comAtlassian Nutanix Sprinklr Cloudflare Lookout
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
$10
$5
$5
$4
$3 $3 $3 $3
$2 $2 $2
$2 $2 $2 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Private Cloud
Companies Valued at $1bn
$ in bn
15Source: Valuation estimates based on publically reported press releases.
16. The Cloud Industry Has Outperformed
Growth
~160%
69% above the Nasdaq in
same time period
Exits
32
IPOs in BVP Cloud
Index
Market Cap
+$140bn
Of new market cap: from
$40bn to ~$180bn
9
Public cloud acquisitions totaling
$18.8bn in value
10
Cloud IPOs
Public Cloud Market
Cap
~$40bnRepresenting
BVP Cloud Index Performance In the Last 3 Years
BVP Has Funded…
16
Of the 42 Public Cloud
Companies
~1 /4Representing
Source: BVP Cloud Index and Capital IQ.
17. Strong bvp cloud index performance in the last year
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ. Legacy software includes Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, SAP, HP, EMC, Adobe, Citrix, ADP
Welcome Shopify to
the BVP Cloud Index!
42 Pure Play Public
Cloud companies
100%
260%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280%
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
BVP Cloud Computing Index
42 Publicly Traded Cloud Companies
Indexed as of Jan. 2011 | @ 5/29/15
BVP Cloud Index Nasdaq Index S&P Index Dow Jones
17
18. BVP Cloud Index expected to 3x in 5 years
Public Cloud Market Cap
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
6/2/2010 10/15/2011 2/26/2013 7/11/2014 11/23/2015 4/6/2017 8/19/2018 1/1/2020
~$1tn
~$500bn
~$300bn
Wepredict theBVP
CloudIndexwill Hit
$500bnmarket capby
2020
18
Source: BVP Cloud Index and Capital IQ.
19. agenda
• State of the Cloud Industry: Where are we today?
• Metrics that matter: How are we doing?
• The outlook ahead: What does it mean for me as a cloud CEO?
19
20. Profits & Cash flow are ultimately king
For All Types of Businesses…
Oil Producer Retailer Cloud Company
20
22. ARRand ARRGrowth are best leading indicators
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
T-4 T-2 T+0 T+2 T+4 T+6 T+8 T+10 T+12
$201
$253
$124
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
T-4 T-2 T+0 T+2 T+4 T+6 T+8 T+10 T+12
Pre IPO Post IPO
1 Yr IPO 1 Yr 2 Yrs 3 Yrs
Top Quartile 91% 61% 42% 36% 33%
Median 72% 47% 35% 34% 24%
Bottom Quartile 42% 34% 26% 28% 22%
Inevitably growth decelerates with scale
Public Cloud Company Runrate Revenue Public Cloud Company YoY Growth
(Starting From Four Quarters Prior to IPO, $ in m) (Starting From Four Quarters Prior to IPO)
Source: SEC fillings. BVP Cloud Index public companies.
T = Quarter 22
23. 23
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
10 15
22.5
33.75
50.63
-16
-24
-36
-54
-81
-8 -12 -18
-27
-40.5
CAC PAYBACK
Resulting P&L for 3 companies growing at 50% new bookings with different CAC
paybacks
Total cash burn: $106M
New Bookings
S&M Costs
Cash Flows (Gross Profit – S&M)
1 Yr CAC Payback 1.5 Yr CAC Payback 2 Yr CAC Payback
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
10 15
22.5
33.75
50.63
-8 -12 -18
-27
-40.5
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
10 15
22.5
33.75
50.63
-12
-18
-27
-40.5
-60.75
-4 -6 -9 -13.5
-20.25
Total cash burn: $0M Total cash burn: $53M
Note: Assumed 50% growth in new bookings every year, 80% gross margin, and no other expenses. 23
24. Retention /Upsell
1% churn results in ~$20m ARR loss after 4 years
~$20m ARR
delta
between
1% and 2%
monthly
churn
1% net
upsell churn
drives
additional
$35mm ARR
Note: Assumes monthly new bookings increases by $10k per month.
3% monthly churn
1% net upsell monthly churn
1% monthly churn
2% monthly churn
24
25. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
10 10 10 10
0
8
16
24
-8
CAC PAYBACK
CAC payback and retention are inter-related - strong upsell can counteract high churn
Revenue
S&M Costs
Cash Flows (Gross Profit – S&M)
1 Yr CAC Payback, 100% Retention 2 Yr CAC Payback, 115% Retention
Note: Assumed 80% gross margin, and no other expenses.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
10 11.5 13.23
15.21
-8
1.2
11.78
23.95
-16
Results in same cash flow
after 4 years
25
26. ARR % ARR Growth Retention / Upsell
CAC Payback % Gross Margin Burn Rate / FCF
Cloud Metrics That Public and Private Investors Are Valuing
Today
26
27. Growth is the Biggest Driverof cloud Valuation
0% 1000% 2000% 3000% 4000% 5000%
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
f(x) = 0.13x + 3.82
R² = 0.19
'14-'15 Rev Growth vs 2015 Rev Mult
% '14-'15 Revenue Growth
2015RevenueMultiple
0% 1000% 2000% 3000% 4000% 5000% 6000%
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
35x
40x
45x
f(x) = -0.29x + 19.05
R² = 0.28
1 Yr Forward Growth vs ARR Mult
% 1 Yr Forward Growth
ARRMultiple
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ Source: 55 private company transactions
Private Cloud CompaniesPublic Cloud Companies
+10% Growth Results in +1.5x Rev Mult +10% Growth Results in +0.6x Rev Mult
27
28. Retention Is Typically the 2nd MajorDriveron
Valuation
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ
2015 - Public Cloud Companies
y = 5.8057x1.5288
R² = 0.1819
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0x
50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%
% Retention vs 2015 Rev Mult
28
29. Private Markets ARE less focused on retention rates in current
environment
2015 – Private Cloud Companies2013 – Private Cloud Companies
y = 5.9847x + 2.185
R² = 0.1954
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
ARRMultiple
Retention
Retention vs ARR Multiple
Source: 17 private company transactions
y = 1.4953x + 11.845
R² = 0.0019
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
30.0x
35.0x
40.0x
45.0x
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
ARRMultiple Retention
Retention vs ARR Multiple
Source: 55 private company transactions
29
30. Strong bvp cloud index performance in the last year
100%
260%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280%
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
BVP Cloud Computing Index
42 Publicly Traded Cloud Companies
Indexed as of Jan. 2011 | @ 5/29/15
BVP Cloud Index Nasdaq Index S&P Index Dow Jones
BVP Cloud Index up ~40% in the last year…
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ. Legacy software includes Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, SAP, HP, EMC, Adobe, Citrix, ADP.
NTM represents next twelve months.
30
31. Bvp cloud index Growth driven FromOrganic Growth Not
Multiple Expansion
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ. Legacy software includes Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, SAP, HP, EMC, Adobe, Citrix, ADP.
NTM represents next twelve months.
5.7x
3.4x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
NTM Multiples Over Time
BVP Cloud Index Legacy Software
Peak - Jan 2014
9.5x
…Cloud multiples back down to historical averagesBVP Cloud Index up ~40% in the last year…
100%
260%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280%
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
BVP Cloud Computing Index
42 Publicly Traded Cloud Companies
Indexed as of Jan. 2011 | @ 5/29/15
BVP Cloud Index Nasdaq Index S&P Index Dow Jones 31
32. Private Cloud Multiples Are Trading at a premiumto Public
Cloud Multiples
5.7x
3.4x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
NTM Multiples Over Time
BVP Cloud Index Legacy Software
11.8x
Private Cloud Transactions
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ.
Note: Private cloud transactions based on 55 private transactions in the last 6 months where 11.8x is average ARR run rate multiple. BVP Cloud Index
multiple and Legacy software multiples are both NTM GAAP revenue.
32
Valuatio
n Gap
Revenue Multiples
33. TAKEAWAY: Guardrails forValuation
Representative SaaS Business ($20mm ARR)
50% 50-100% 100%+
85% 85-95% 95%+
24 mos 12-24mos <12 mos
minimal 100-125% 125%+
50-60% 60-75% 75%+
Key Factors
1 Yr Fwd Growth
CAC Payback
Gross $
Retention
Upsell Retention
Gross Margin
Team Product
Competitive
Dynamics
TAM
Good Better Best
33
34. agenda
• State of the Cloud Industry: Where are we today?
• Metrics that matter: How are we doing?
• The outlook ahead: What does it mean for me as a cloud CEO?
34
35. THE OUTLOOKAHEAD
• The Cloud Wins
– First category (CRM) goes over 50% cloud in 2016
– Now at 42 public cloud companies in BVP Cloud Index – Welcome Shopify!
– BVP Cloud Index crosses $500bn by 2020
• Major Trends & Coming Disruptions
– Industry cloud comes of age
– Cyber security a threat and an opportunity
– B2D opportunity for developers and entrepreneurs
– Further commoditization of IaaS
– Cornered animals: More M&A from legacy vendors ahead
– The dawn of enterprise mobile
35
36. Industry cloud On the Rise
1
2
3
Software adoption moved from “nice to have” to
“table stakes”
Winner take most dynamic – can win 50% of a
market
Mobile expands the non-desk workforce by 80%
2005 2010 2015
$0
$10
$20
$30
$0 $2
$23
Market Cap ($ in bn)
# of Companies 0 2 12
Source: Capital IQ
Note: Public vertical SaaS companies include 2U, Athenahealth, Benefitfocus, Dealertrack Technologies,
Fleetmatics Group, RealPage, Textura, Veeva, Q2 Holdings, Opower, Guidewire, Shopify
Public Industry Cloud Companies
Notable Private Industry Cloud Companies
Drivers of Industry Cloud
36
39. FURTHER GROWTH OF IAAS - GREAT FOR SAAS
2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$3
$4
$6
$8
$11
AWS Revenue ($ bn)
Source: Robert Baird & Co, 2015. Monthly uniques per Comscore, Feb 2015. 39
~80mm unique visitors a month
50 billion "pins" on Pinterest
40. More m&a ahead
40
• Classic Innovator’s Dilemma allowed
cloud entrants to thrive
• Too late to build
• Too expensive to buy
• Will be fatal to many
Legacy Software vendors are cornered animals today
41. Mobile Is a Game Changerforthe Enterprise
85%
Americans between 18-29
50%
Internet usage on mobile vs desktop
80%
Workforce are non-desk workers
Everyone in Enterprise B2B
Now Has a Smartphone
Internet usage tipped to mobile Reaches an untouched
workforce
Source: Pew Research Center, April, 2015, “The Smartphone Difference”. Source: eMarketer 9/14 (2008-2010), eMarketer 4/15 (2011-2015). Note: Other
connected devices include OTT and game consoles. Mobile includes smartphone and tablet. Usage includes both
home and work. Ages 18+; time spent with each medium includes all time spent with that medium, regardless of multitasking. KPCB Internet trends, 2015
Global Mobile Penetration 1995 - 2014
Global penetration
1 –> 73%
41
42. The Most Expensive Real Estate in the World
$ / Sq Ft $5k $10k $20k
The Penthouse @ One
Hyde Park, London $15k
17 Upper Phillimore
Gardens $6k
Buckingham Palace $6k
Kennsington Palace $4k
$2mm+
Note: Assume each mobile icon is ½” (so 1 sq ft is equal to 576 mobile icons). Assume MAU is equal to mobile app installs.
Uber - 450k WAU, 900k MAU (assume WAU x 2 = MAU) as of 12/2013. Valuation of $3.5bn as of 08/2013
Snapchat – 30m MAU at $10bn valuation as of 08/2014
Whatsapp – 450m MAU at $19bn valuation as of 02/2014
Instagram – 30m MAU at $1bn valuation as of 04/2014
42
43. The Most Expensive Real Estate in the World
$ / Sq Ft $5k $10k $20k
The Penthouse @ One
Hyde Park, London $15k
17 Upper Phillimore
Gardens $6k
Buckingham Palace $6k
Kennsington Palace $4k
$2mm+
$2.2m
$192k
$24k
$19k
Note: Assume each mobile icon is ½” (so 1 sq ft is equal to 576 mobile icons). Assume MAU is equal to mobile app installs.
Uber - 450k WAU, 900k MAU (assume WAU x 2 = MAU) as of 12/2013. Valuation of $3.5bn as of 08/2013
Snapchat – 30m MAU at $10bn valuation as of 08/2014
Whatsapp – 450m MAU at $19bn valuation as of 02/2014
Instagram – 30m MAU at $1bn valuation as of 04/2014
43
44. Enterprise mobile has more monetization potential than
consumermobile
…but enterprise apps are exploding
# of enterprise mobile apps growing over 210% in 2014
20% of all developers globally are targeting
enterprises, up from 16% just six months ago
1
2
Consumer Enterprise
1258.04
141.96
# of Apps in IOS
(units in 000s)
Enterprise10% of IOS
apps
Source: Appfigures, Statista (May 2015), Vision Mobile
…and enterprise apps have higher
monetization potential
3
Enterprise
Consumer
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
31%
56%
26%
25%
25%
12%
9%
4%
9%
3%
$0-$1k $1-$10k $10k-$100k
$100k-$500k $500K+
43% of enterpriseapps make>$10k/movs
19% forconsumerapps
44
There are 10x more consumer apps than
enterprise…
45. Enterprise mobile will disrupt cloud
45
Becomegreat onmobile, oryournext challengerwill!
46. A special thankyou to…
• Kristina Shen - great effort and insights in building this report
• Peter, Umair, Adam, Alex, Bob, Brian, Cecilia, David, Ethan, Felda, Jeff, Jeremy, Kent, Mark, Steve, Sunil & Sunil, Thea, Tiffany,
Trevor, Vishal, and the rest of Bessemer’s cloud team
• The amazing cloud founders and executive teams we’ve had the privilege of working with and learning from
• Our awesome partners @ Bessemer Venture Partners, Salesforce Ventures, & Salesforce.com
• To download BVP content: www.bvp.com/cloud
– BVP Cloud Industry Report www.bvp.com/cloudreport
– BVP Cloud Index @ www.bvp.com/cloud/comps
– BVP Cloudscape @ www.bvp.com/cloud
– BVP Industry Software Revolution @ www.bvp.com/cloud
– BVP Security for Startups – 10 Step Cybersecurity Plan @ www.bvp.com/cyber
46