Ashkan Roshanayi will tell you how FrieslandCampina used online public data as a proxy to understand the offline behavior of their end users in Asia and unlocked a %25+ growth opportunity using that insight.
2. Lars-Alexander Mayer
20.11.2017
50+ experts in Global Digital Team
12B+€ REVENUE
100+ COUNTRIES
24K+ EMPLOYEES
10+B Kilo MILK
Lars-Alexander Mayer
20.11.2017
50+ Experts in Global Digital Team
13B+€ REVENUE
100+ COUNTRIES
24K+ EMPLOYEES
10+B Kilo MILK
4. Our Ambition within Global Digital Team 2 Years Ago
4
Stop talking about digital transformation
Start using digital to drive business
5. 5
Standing on the shoulders of giants:
Byron Sharp Principles as starting point for data projects
…but how can
we make it more
actionable with
data?
6. Physical
Availability
Sell-in/out, Distribution,
Instore Visibility and Store
coverage
Real-time measurement
for continuous optimization
1
2
3
Connecting the dots,
predicting each business impact
Learn about cause effects
to steer invests
Core Concept: Connect both worlds using digital soundbox
to grow our business
6
Media
Spendings
Survey
Data
Mental
Availability
Brand awareness, brand
ownership and image
Order
data
Retail
Audit
Price
monitoring
Digital Soundbox
7. Where to start?
7
Pilot Market
Vietnam
High sales contribution in
Specialized Nutrition
Dynamic, ambitious and data-
affine team
Inhouse capabilities to execute
digital initiatives
And endless data…
8. Key challenges in VN
Where Brand Health & Nielsen
Volume Share is being tracked
You can’t manage what
you don’t measure
Peter Drucker
8
Where our business is
located?
9. 2015 2016 2017
Correlation between search per brand and
value sales per brand per city per year 80%
Consumer
interest in non-
IFT nutrition
as share of
total baby
nutrition
interest
2014 2015 2016Shareofnon-IFT
vs.totalIFT
interest
Soundbox Validation: Consumers search behavior
mirrors offline purchase behavior
Sources:
Google, DMS, Nielsen
Category Interest
Brand Interest
Category Barriers
Validation with existing market data (Key 6 cities)
Category barriers
10. 6 Key Cities
Search Queries
per Quarter
Total IFT category interest by areas
(mainstream & premium brands & products)
10
Rural Areas
Other Urban
Insight: the category in urban and rural
develops fundamentally different
Sources:
Google
Growth opportunities
are located outside key
6 cities
2014 2015 2016 2017
11. Business Question: How to win in rural?
11
Physical Availability/
Distribution
Mass Media
1-to-1 Acquisition
• Digital
• Medical
Category Drivers &
Barriers
Google
Retail
Sales
Medical
Marketing
CRM
Media
(TV, OOH,
Digital)
Promotions &
Nutrition
Advisors
Facebook /
Messenger
Websites &
Call Center
hyper-regional level meaning
640+ districts
Internal & External Data Sources
Step 1: Step 2 Step 3
Understand the market Build Data Model Identify Levers
12. Province profile & activity guiduance: Thái Bình
Demographics
Population: 1789 (high)
Employment rate: 61% (high)
Birth rate: 1.26 (low)
Monthly income (Euro): 91.35 (medium)
Major city: Thái Bình
Urban districts: 0
Premium IFT market share: 58%
Forecasted Premium IFT growth: +1%
Friso market share (Premium IFT): 17.8%
Potential market share uplift: 2.4%
Nutrition Advisors: 11 (high)
Stores listing Friso IFT: 317 (high)
Hospitals in Province: 1 (low)
GRP level: 3373.4
Share of digital CRM entries: 35%
Share of Medical CRM entries: 58%
Current activities
20% 33% 24% 16% 6%1%
Stage 0 Stage 1 Stage 2
Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Friso sales based on stage
Prioritisation
Priority 1
Continue
Priority 3
Priority 2
Top 3 Premium IFT brands
Vietnam average
-36%
-29%
-52%
Medical 1 to 1
Digital 1 to 1
Physical availability
Mass media
29% 20% 18%
Nan Enfa Friso
Current lever investment
High: Top third across provinces; Medium: Mid third across provinces; Low Bottom third across provinces.
Caveat: Prioritisation of levers assumes additional growth in these areas is feasible and practical.
Additional feasibility checks should be undertaken before investment is increased.
Vietnam
average
24% 37% 19% 12% 6% 1%
*all data: 2016
13. Size of the prize:
Regional data model forecasts a growth opportunity of 25%
Identified
potential at
targeted
8provinces,
with guidance
on levers
+25%
growth
YoY
Size of the Prize
13
14. Status quo of the pilot program:
How to win in rural
14
Regional
Pilot
Initial Analysis (2 month):
• Estimated of potential (size of the prize)
• Identified levers to increase local market share
• Identified specific areas to invest
Pilot (6 Month):
• Pilot Program run by Local VN Team
• Data/Consulting support by Global & TD
• Weekly, Monthly lever performance reporting
• Online Dashboard to track regional market shares
Roll-out (2nd half 2018):
• Business Case Evaluation
• Roll-out in all provinces (64)
16. The digital soundbox in China is different but the
logic is the same
16
updated version
needed
17. Impact of new CN regulations on our category
17
*Source: http://business.sohu.com/20160930/n469426308.shtml
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Search Volume per brand cluster
(weekly, 2015 – today, smoothened)
Since Oct 16, new regulations for IFT products as been issued. Since
than, domestic brands strongly catch up to international brands in digital
interest (search vol.) and outperforms for the first time in July 2017
International brands
(Abbott, MJ, Friso etc)
Chinese brands
(Beingmate, Yili, Yashili etc)
New policy Administrative Measures
for Registration of Infant and Young
Children Milk Powder Formula
Recipes* has been issued
Local brands
catching up
new year new year new year
SearchVolume
18. Local Brands eating in Premium while Internationals
move to and grow the Super & Ultra Premium
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Mainstream Premium Super & Ultra
Premium
WHERE LOCAL CHINA
BRANDS GROW PER TIER CITY
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Mainstream Premium Super & Ultra
Premium
WHERE INTERNATIONAL
BRANDS GROW PER TIER CITY
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
* Sum of Average monthly Baidu Search 2016 – 2017 for IFT Price Tier Search
19. Understand true markets sizes, grey trades and its
dynamic where no data is available
19
How does
Hong-Kong
grey trade
stretches into
greater China?
20. How we make sure…
…to generate business
impact with our projects?
21. Our working model with local markets
21
(Local) Business
Questions
Data ProductsAnswers Piloting
22. Centralized data products for higher transparency of local markets
Replace expensive market data by a better usage of owned data
Foreseeing category development and adapt brand portfolio
Higher marketing effects through better distribution of invest
(by regions by lever)
Where data-driven business generates Value
22
29. • Most vendors are competing on the same stuff: better ETL, governance, … Why?
• Most pre-art are irrelevant quickly. Do your own due diligence, keep an open mind.
• Be aware about uniformity sellers & integration sellers.
• We tend to over-simplify concepts and solutions by creating leaky abstractions.
• Many of best practices of good software development (e.g. fighting complexity, tech
debt, estimations, …) do not extend naturally into data-based projects / products;
• it blows our mind that after all these years there is no general framework for putting a
model into production.
29
Some facts 👊
30. We can do “impact mapping”
Highly Recommended Read
31. Lesson #0:
Start small, Think & Committed to scale
• We do this because we can.
• Let’s do a project to show why we are getting paid.
• I met this cool vendor at BigDataExpo who can fix all problems with
blockchain.
• Come on! …K € is like peanuts. I’ve heard XYZ spent …M € on digital
transformation.
👎
32. Lesson #1:
Need All Actors on that map: briefed on urgency
• OpCo (local knowledge)
• ICT (unlock data)
• GDT (build model & inisght)
• OpCo (quickly act on insight)
• Supply Chain & distribution
• Product development
• …
Vietnam Case
33. Issue #2:
Experimenting should be norm
• How to match uphill with our prediction-
demanded budgeting? 🤷🤷♂️
• Question is not: what are the
requirements?
• Question is: is there a requirement at all?
• Experiment led to no-project or No-Do list
should be accepted
