According to the AICPA, the business environment of tomorrow will be characterized by "unprecedented, massive and highly accelerated change." Not surprisingly, clients are demanding that their CPAs and accountants help them deal with that change by providing future-focused, proactive advice -- but only 8 percent of CPAs say they are future-ready and even fewer say they have the time to become so. This session will examine the trends that are impacting our profession and offer three steps that CPAs and accountants can take to become future-ready.
10. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 10
“When the job is in the
way of the work,
consider changing your
job enough that you can
go back to creating
value. Anything less is
hiding.”
Seth Godin
11. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 11
Top five issues impacting
accounting and finance pros
1. Keeping up
2. Information overload
3. Doing more with less
4. Being proactive vs. reactive
5. Complexity
13. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 13
#FutureReady
The capacity to be anticipatory
(aware, predictive and adaptive)
of emerging technology and
trends in business,
demographics, and the social
environment impacting your
organization and industry.
* 92% of CPAs are not #FutureReady
Source: CPA.COM Insight into
the CPA of the Future Study 2015
14. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 14
“You can’t stop the waves,
but you can learn how to surf.”
– Jon Kabat-Zinn
17. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 17
“We stand on the brink of a technological revolution
that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work,
and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and
complexity, the transformation will be unlike
anything humankind has experienced before.”
-- Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum
18. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 18
“In the next five years,
game-changing technologies
will transform every business
process, including how we sell,
market, communicate,
collaborate, educate, train,
and innovate.”
-- Daniel Burrus
21. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 21
Source: Frey & Osborne,
“The Future of Employment,” Oxford University
Tax: 98.7%
A&A: 93.5%
24. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 24
“We won’t recognize the
vast majority of CPA firms
in five or 10 years.”
Barry Melancon
25. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 25
47%
of all jobs gone within 25 years
‘No government is
prepared’ for that level of
job loss
Source: The Economist
26. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 26
Are your offices, workspaces, and technology
future-focused?
Do you know what your clients are facing now
and in the future?
Are you using the language of the future
or the past?
Will students and potential employees feel like they
are traveling back in time when they walk through
your door?
32. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 32
In a period of rapid change and increasing complexity, the winners are going to be the people who
can LEARN faster than the rate of CHANGE and faster than their COMPETITION.
Tom Hood, CPA, CITP, CGMA
33. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com
Future Ready Competencies in the Age of
Machines
• Communications
• Leadership
• Critical thinking and problem solving
• Anticipating and serving evolving needs
• Synthesizing intelligence to insight
• Integration and collaboration
• Tech-savvy / data analytics
• Functional and domain expertise
Our Research:
Get Ready for the Fast Future 30
35. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 33
Respond lightning fast
Access an encyclopaedic memory
Stay awake 24 x 7 x 365
Remember conversations
Analyze on the fly
Continually learn and improve
Advantage,
machines
Source: AccountingWEB
36. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 33
Intuition
Political acumen
Challenging
Reading the back story
Who’s who?
Probability of change
Culture
What’s in it for me?
Advantage,
humans
Source: AccountingWEB
37. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 33
“Professional judgment
and expertise is not
replaceable by machines.”
— Cathy Engelbert
CEO, Deloitte
38. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com
“What can I become quite good at
that’s really difficult for a computer t
o do one day soon? How can I
become so resilient, so human and
such a linchpin that shifts in
technology won’t be able
to catch up? It was always
important, but now it’s urgent.”
Seth Godin
Get Ready for the Fast Future 31
46. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com
“We are called to be
architects of the future,
not its victims.”
R. Buckminster Fuller
Get Ready for the Fast Future 38
50. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 50Marie Curie
Books These are among the resources that were discussed during
the our “Future-Ready CPA” programs.
The Future of the Professions: How
Technology Will Transform the Work of
Human Experts
By Richard and Daniel Susskind
www.susskind.com
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
By Klaus Schwab
bit.ly/1qLrfzs
Flash Foresight: How To See The
Invisible And Do The Impossible
By Daniel Burrus
bit.ly/1SOn7FG
The Second Machine Age: Work,
Progress And Prosperity In A Time of
Brilliant Technologies
By Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
www.SecondMachineAge.com
The Industries Of The Future
By Alec Ross
bit.ly/2fP8cnU
Thank You For Being Late: An
Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age
of Accelerations
By Thomas Friedman
bit.ly/2hag0Rg
51. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 51Marie Curie
Whitepapers These are among the resources discussed
during the our “Future-Ready CPA” programs.
What SMBs Want From Their
Accountant
From The Sleeter Group
bit.ly/2fCsvkc
Welcome to the Fast Future
From CPA.com
bit.ly/2gdHlBj
The Future of Employment: How Susceptible
Are Jobs To Computerization?
By Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne
bit.ly/1kre5T6
CPA Horizons 2025
From the American Institute
of CPAs
bit.ly/1UEN1x2
Innovation Killers: How Financial Tools
Destroy Your Capacity To Do New Things
By Clayton Christensen, Stephen P.
Kaufman, and Willy Shih
bit.ly/1JtBxfG
Ready-Now Leaders: Meeting
Tomorrow’s Business Challenges
From DDI
bit.ly/V05HQ6
52. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com Get Ready for the Fast Future 52Marie Curie
Contect with
me MACPA’s blog: CPASuccess.com
Facebook.com/BillSheridan
LinkedIn.com/in/BillDSheridan
Twitter.com/BillSheridan
YouTube.com/BillSheridan
SlideShare.net/BillSheridan
Instagram: BDSheridan
Download these slides:
Slideshare.net/BillSheridan
53. #CCHUC17 | CCHUserConference.com
Get Ready for
the Fast Future
Why anticipation is the
must-have skill of tomorrow
Bill Sheridan, CAE
Oct. 24, 2017
Notes de l'éditeur
As the story goes, in the mid-13th century, an Indian minister named Sessa invented the game that we would eventually come to know as chess. He showed this intellectual game, this game of strategy, to his ruler, who immediately wanted to buy it and asked Sessa what he wanted for it.
Sessa, thinking quickly, said …
The ruler laughed, thinking he was getting this brilliant new game for a few handfuls of rice. And he agreed.
And here’s what he eventually paid.
By the end of the first row, he had 128 grains of rice.
By the 21st square, he had over a million grains.
By the 41st square, he had over a trillion grains.
And by the 64th and final square, the king owed him a pile of rice that weighed more than 460 billion metric tons. A pile of rice like that would have been bigger than Mount Everest. In fact, it’s about 1,000 times more than the global production of rice in 2010.
Exponential growth.
In fact, a graph of exponential growth looks nothing like this.
It looks like this.
Gradual, then sudden.
Stories like that are fun, but there’s a phenomenon happening in our world right now that’s exactly like the paper and the rice.
It’s called Moore’s Law.
Know what all of that means? It means that computers today are about 130,000 times more powerful that they were in 1988. That your iPhone 8 is WAY more powerful as Apple’s most powerful laptop was just a decade ago. That an iPad Mini is as powerful as the world’s biggest supercomputer was in 1985. We’re all carrying mainframes in our pockets.
But Moore’s Law has given us more than a bunch of cool new gadgets to play with.
It means that everything and every job is changing – and not just changing, but transforming. (health care)
In Thank You For Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations, Thomas Friedman writes that Intel engineers recently tried to illustrate the power of Moore’s Law by calculating what would happen to a 1971 Volkswagen Beetle if it had improved at the same rate as microchips have over the past 50 years.
“Today,” Friedman writes, “that Beetle would be able to go about 300,000 miles per hour. It would get 2 million miles per gallon of gas, and it would cost 4 cents.”
Intel’s engineers took it a step further, Friedman writes, and “estimated that if automobile fuel efficiency improved at the same rate as Moore’s Law, you could, roughly speaking, drive a car your whole life on one tank of gasoline.”
It’s all too much for any single person to keep up with, let along get in front of. And why?
So how many of you are busy?
How many are really, really busy?
How many are so busy you’re too tire to raise your hands?
That’s really what I believe is our biggest challenge – we’re so busy trying to keep up that we’re too busy to be future-ready.
Consider this from Seth Godin: We’re so busy doing our jobs, we can’t get any work done.
And that’s a great place to hide, isn’t it? That’s a great excuse to NOT do the really important work.
I just don’t have time.
And that’s a crock. It’s just an excuse. The truth is, we make time for the really important stuff.
And folks, THIS is really important.
In our surveys over the past year, we’ve seen a few issues that seem to keep bubbling up to the top when we ask, “What are the top challenges you’re facing?” Interestingly enough, this is across the entire profession – public practice of all sizes, corporate, government, and not-for-profits. The same ones keep coming up.
And they all have to do with this notion of disruption – new stuff, new technologies, regulations, demographic shifts, global and economic issues. They’re all ganging up on us, aren’t they? And making our lives really, really complex at the same time.
Now, combine those with recent research from The Sleeter Group – this is a report called “What Small and Mid-Size Business Want From Their CPAs.” These are the biggest reasons why clients say they leave their CPAs.
Look at number 1. In essence, clients say they leave because their CPAs aren’t future-ready enough.
By the way, look at how low fees are on that list. Often when we talk to CPAs, they complain that clients leave because they complain the fees are too high. What the research tells us is that they won’t pay your fees … if you aren’t giving them proactive advice. I think the flip side of that is that if you DO give them proactive advice, how might that change? That’s a critical issue, right? That difference between reactive service vs. proactive advice. And a lot of times, it starts with a simple question: What’s keeping you up at night? If you ask that question and pay attention to the answer, a world of opportunity suddenly becomes clear.
And this idea that we’re not future-ready? Research within the profession bears that out. This is a report from CPA.com, which is the technology arm of the AICPA. The report is called “Welcome to the Fast Future.” It found that only 8 percent of CPAs believe the profession is future-ready.
And how do they define “future-ready?”
I think the key here is that we have to move beyond accounting. We have to start moving beyond the historical data that has traditionally driven this profession and start looking at those weak signals of disruptive change that are coming at us from the horizon.
And there’s our predicament, right? We don’t have enough time to become future-ready. And our clients are leaving because we’re NOT future-ready.
If all of this is true, an important question arises: How will we EVER make time to think about the future if we’re constantly stuck in the day-to-day minutia of trying to get our work done?
Here’s your answer.
Look, disruption is going to happen whether we like it or not. Our lives will continue to become more complex whether we like it or not. We can’t do anything about that.
What we CAN do is learn how to spot those disruptions before they disrupt us and take advantage of the opportunities they provide. Those who do that will be the winners going forward.
So let’s talk about those surfing lessons – some ideas that might help us be more future-ready.
Three steps. If you pay attention to these three things, you’ll position yourself as a much more future-ready CPA or accountant – and you’ll bring your whole firm along with you.
So let’s talk about each of these.
So let’s talk about those surfing lessons – some ideas that might help us be more future-ready.
Three steps. If you pay attention to these three things, you’ll position yourself as a much more future-ready CPA or accountant – and you’ll bring your whole firm along with you.
So let’s talk about each of these.
Consider this: It’s a quote from Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum. He’s the author of a mind-blowing book called “The Fourth Industrial Revolution.” Pick up a copy today. It’s an important book.
But here’s what he had to say:
Now think about that word that both of them used. That’s transformation. They didn’t say “slightly change” or “tweak.” They said “transformation.” That means EVERYTHING is different.
Now, what does that mean?
That means things like this: Did the taxi cab industry see Uber coming?
According to the New York Post, there are now more Uber black cars in New York City than yellow cabs.
(Story about Valentine’s Day 2015 in NYC, trying to get a cab to dinner.)
Then there’s AirBNB. It took Marriott and Hilton 100 years to get a million rooms under their management. It took AirBNB six … six years to hit a millions rooms. Did Hilton or Marriott see that coming? And it came from outside the hotel industry, didn’t it? It didn’t come from inside.
That’s the kind of thing that worries me about the CPA profession. Are we paying attention? Are we taking that longer view – and through the windshield, not through the rear-view mirror?
We’d better be.
These are estimates from Oxford University. The odds of certain professions being completely automated within the next 20 years.
The only profession worse than us? Telemarketers. The safest profession? Massage therapists.
The point is, it’s coming. What will we do when it gets here? Will we be scrambling to keep up, as usual? Or will we have already positioned ourselves to move beyond that disruption and create future-focused value?
Let’s talk about IBM Watson. Many of us will remember when IBM’s Deep Blue computer beat Gary Kasparaov in chess in 1997. Then, IBM’s Watson technology beat Jeopardy’s reigning human champion, Ken Jennings.
Now, fast-forward to last year. A futurist we work with, Dan Burrus, traveled to Toronto to watch Watson prepare a meal. So here’s what they did. They told Watson to read a million cookbooks from all over the world and come up with an innovative recipe. Now, Watson couldn’t cook the meal, but Watson read a million cookbooks and produced a completely unique recipe for the chefs to cook. How long do you think it took Watson to do that?
One second.
Now, given the exponential nature of change, how long will it take next year?
Here’s the really interesting thing: In March, KPMG announced plans to apply the Watson technology to the KPMG professional services offerings – including audit, tax, and advisory services.
This comes a little close to home, doesn’t it.
It makes you wonder: How long would it take Watson to analyze the tax code? And recommend tax reform?
Now, rest easy: I think our tax code is so screwed up that Watson wouldn’t stand a chance. So I think we’re safe … for a little while.
But this stuff is coming … and it’s coming fast.
And we haven’t even mentioned blockchain yet. It’s an open, distributed ledger that records and verifies transactions without any central authority. And since accountants often work in the verification business – think audit and attestation, right? – this technology might transform our profession more than any other.
Other studies offer similar predictions.
Art Bilger, a venture capitalist and expert at the Wharton School of Business, says 47 percent of the jobs in all developed nations will disappear in the next 25 years — that’s blue-collar and white-collar jobs. Moreover, says The Economist, “no government is prepared” for that level of job loss.
Other studies aren’t quite that alarmist. James Manyika, director of the McKinsey Global Institute, says “more jobs will change than will be automated away in the short to medium term.” Still, that change will be extreme. While only 5 percent of jobs can be completely automated over the next 10 years using current technologies, Manyika says at least 30 percent of the activities in 60 percent of all occupations can be automated over the next decade, from welders to gardeners to CEOs.
One way or another — complete automation or partial — our jobs are about to change. This type of disruption is coming.
So that’s awareness. I want you to be thinking about these questions and ask yourself, am I aware of these trends? And how will I KEEP being aware of them. That’s what context means.
Are your offices, workspaces and technology future-focused? And if not, what does that say about you?
Do you know what your clients are facing? Are you just reading the footnotes to them, or are you asking them questions that will reveal how their business is doing and what’s keeping them up at night?
As you have those conversations, are you using the language of the future or the past?
And what image are your offices and technology projecting to students and potential employees?
These are questions I want you to keep in mind as you think about context.
Next up: Predict. Can you predict the future?
So let’s see. Right now it’s summer. What comes after summer? Fall? And after that? Spring? You just predicted the future.
How many of you have a smartphone? Will the next one be …
So there are things about the future we can predict.
If you can start basing your strategies and opportunities on things that are certain, you’ll have a much higher success rate and much lower risk.
That’s what we mean by this idea of certainty.
Our friend, Dan Burrus, a world-renowned futurist. He likes to say there are 3 hard trends – things that are definitely going to happen – three hard trends that are impacting our profession:
-- government regulation
-- technology
-- demographics. So let’s predict the future: Next year, will you be a year older? So will every other person on earth. What will that mean? We all need more managers, right? Well, how long does it take to create, say, a 35-year-old manager? 35 years, right? They’re not going to magically appear. We need to figure out a way to ramp up the leadership skills of some of our high-potential millennials.
So again, there are some things you can predict about the future. If you narrow those down and base your firm’s strategy around those certainties, risk goes down, higher rate of success.
One more thing about certainty: Our inability to decide or move on some of these certainties is starting to cost you money. This is research from Clayton Christianson on disruption. And what he found was, the cost of saying no is zero. If I don’t spend money, I’ll be OK. I might not MAKE money, but in a stable environment, I’ll be OK.
But in a fast-changing, disruptive environment like the one we’re in, saying no can actually cost you money. It can actually be fatal. And that’s worth thinking about.
THE CURVE:
For years, the issue was ROI – what’s the return over time.
And what is that research telling us? Well, the top skills that accounting and finance pros need today – from study to study to study.
But you see, we’re all facing the same thing. These are things we need to learn how to do in this increasingly complex world.
The funny thing is, when you ask CPAs how much they are investing in teaching these competencies to their teams? Very little. They say they need them, but they’re not spending the money to acquire them. That has to change.
The good news is, we’re starting to see more and more resources being developed specifically to deliver these types of competencies for accounting and finance professionals.
One is Daniel Burrus’s own Anticipatory Organization. The Business Learning Institute worked with Burrus to create a version of his Anticipatory Organization learning platform specifically for accounting and finance pros. That’s available now and is becoming extremely popular in the profession.
Another is IBM’s Big Data University. It’s an online curriculum designed to help accounting and finance pros learn key skills in artificial intelligence, Big Data, and cognitive computing. And based on what we’ve been talking about today, these skills are going to be huge differentiators going forward, and will help CPAs play a bigger role in guiding digital transformation within their organizations.
“I still believe professional judgment and expertise is not replaceable by machines. I’ve never met a machine with courage and empathy, one that can read body language and adjust what they say. While we’re going to digest larger volumes of data and information, the key is to use artificial intelligence to augment what the human does. … Using these technologies to augment human intelligence and find the insights in the data is more important than ever.”
Cathy Engelbert
CEO, Deloitte
One more thing about certainty: Our inability to decide or move on some of these certainties is starting to cost you money. This is research from Clayton Christianson on disruption. And what he found was, the cost of saying no is zero. If I don’t spend money, I’ll be OK. I might not MAKE money, but in a stable environment, I’ll be OK.
But in a fast-changing, disruptive environment like the one we’re in, saying no can actually cost you money. It can actually be fatal. And that’s worth thinking about.
THE CURVE:
For years, the issue was ROI – what’s the return over time.
So the bottom line is that you actually CAN make time for the future, but you have to do it strategically, and not let the tyranny of the urgent kill you when you get back to work. You’re all going to leave here and go back to work and have all of these voicemails and emails and day-to-day stuff to do, and you’ll lose everything we talked about here today in about a week. And I don’t want that to happen. I don’t want you to look like this.
So here’s what I want you to do – and this, again, comes from our buddy, Dan Burrus. He says the most important app on his smartphone is his calendar.
So right now, block off just one hour of time within the next week to think about the future.
-- one hour to look at a new app or to better understand a technology that you already have
-- one hour to read a book about the future
-- one hour to scan the internet for clues about hard trends that are impacting you and your clients.
-- one hour to think about how this profession is changing and what you can do about it.
Then make it a recurring appointment. One hour a week. And you can’t say you’re going to do it. It won’t get done. Schedule it. Make an appointment on your calendar with yourself. Just one hour a week to think about the future.
So here’s what I want you to do – and this, again, comes from our buddy, Dan Burrus. He says the most important app on his smartphone is his calendar.
So right now, block off just one hour of time within the next week to think about the future.
-- one hour to look at a new app or to better understand a technology that you already have
-- one hour to read a book about the future
-- one hour to scan the internet for clues about hard trends that are impacting you and your clients.
-- one hour to think about how this profession is changing and what you can do about it.
Then make it a recurring appointment. One hour a week. And you can’t say you’re going to do it. It won’t get done. Schedule it. Make an appointment on your calendar with yourself. Just one hour a week to think about the future.
So here’s what I want you to do – and this, again, comes from our buddy, Dan Burrus. He says the most important app on his smartphone is his calendar.
So right now, block off just one hour of time within the next week to think about the future.
-- one hour to look at a new app or to better understand a technology that you already have
-- one hour to read a book about the future
-- one hour to scan the internet for clues about hard trends that are impacting you and your clients.
-- one hour to think about how this profession is changing and what you can do about it.
Then make it a recurring appointment. One hour a week. And you can’t say you’re going to do it. It won’t get done. Schedule it. Make an appointment on your calendar with yourself. Just one hour a week to think about the future.