Crystall is used by customers from a broad range of Industries such as aerospace, financial services, manufacturing, oil and gas, pharmaceutical, utilities, environmental sciences etc.
12. Basic Terminology www.crystalball.com Crystal Ball Term Common Names Assumption Input, X, independent variable, random variable, probability distribution . Decision Variable Controlled variable Forecast Output, Y, f(X), dependent variable
Use the next several slides as a reference tool for users, but highlight two or three points that may be applicable to this particular group or project. A simple physical model could be flying paper airplanes. It has the most basic characteristic of a model for air traffic control… multiple objects are in the air at the same time. However it isn’t a good representative since it fails to recognize the external factors that impact the flight patterns. The main point is that there are lots of types, each with their strengths and weaknesses (paper airplanes are easier for 3-D movement than an Excel spreadsheet after all.) For Monte Carlo simulation to work, we use a model that consists of mathematical and logical relationships.
Advantages of simulation in a broad sense
This slide outlines the process that users will go through on the road to better decisions. Points 3 and 4 are the only two points in the process that differentiate this process from one already employed by spreadsheet users. We use these additional steps not with the intention of bringing users the elusive shorter workday, but instead with the intention of providing users with the even more elusive good decision.
Open the model “DCF Problem.xls” from the Intro Class problems folder. It is a good idea to take a few minutes to get everyone acquainted with the model. The different ways to open Crystal Ball. Basic navigation of Crystal Ball. Understanding the model logic. What sort of questions would you want to answer during the analysis.
This introduces the different types of variables in Crystal Ball. The benefit of taking time to establish common terminology is it reduces the chance for misinterpretation.