BlueBRIDGE workshop: "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures" - Brussels February 2018

1. BlueBRIDGE receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 675680 www.bluebridge-vres.eu
Projecting global fish stocks
and catches up to 2100
Jorn Bruggeman
jbr@pml.ac.uk Supporting Blue Growth with
innovative applications based on
EU e-infrastructures
14-15 February 2018, Brussels

2. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Background
• Published in 2009, most downloaded FAO report
• 2018 update expected to influence policy world-wide
• Outline
• global projections
• regional chapters
• aquaculture implications
• PML: catch projections per Exclusive Economic Zone
15/02/2018 2

3. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Fish modelling
• Process-based modelling with simple rules
• differentiate fish by size, not species
• small fish feed on plankton, large fish on fish
• metabolism is temperature dependent
15/02/2018 3
Blanchard et al. 2009. J
Animal Ecol 78(1):
270–280
Blanchard et al. 2012.
Phil Trans Roy Soc B
367(1605): 2979–2989

4. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Data requirements
• Variables
• abundance of plankton types of different sizes
• temperature
• Space and time
• domain: global
• period: present till 2100
• temporal resolution: monthly or finer
• spatial scale: ideally depth-explicit, aggregated per EEZ
15/02/2018 4

5. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Sourcing climate projections
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: CMIP5
• 20 climate models
• historical run and multiple scenarios (RCPs): 1850-2100
• gridded data (1°, 2°)
• monthly data for surface ocean biogeochemistry
• yearly data for depth-explicit biogeochemistry
15/02/2018 5
https://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/

6. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Workflow
15/02/2018 6
± 800 GB
3. average over each
Exclusive Economic Zone
2. extract key variables:
temperature, plankton
4. simulate fish per EEZ
from 1850 to 2100
time series of stocks and
catches per EEZ, 500 MB
EEZ shapefile
www.marineregions.org
CMIP5 archive, 3.3 PB
esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk
FAO FishStat
www.fao.org
internet
local cluster
1. select & download
models: GFSL/IPSL/CMCC
scenarios: RCP 2.6, 8.5
ocean biogeochemistry only
5. validate catch against
historical records
± 80 GB
8.75 GB

7. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Workflow
15/02/2018 7
± 800 GB
3. average over each
Exclusive Economic Zone
2. extract key variables:
temperature, plankton
4. simulate fish per EEZ
from 1850 to 2100
time series of stocks and
catches per EEZ, 500 MB
EEZ shapefile
www.marineregions.org
CMIP5 archive, 3.3 PB
esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk
FAO FishStat
www.fao.org
internet
local cluster
1. select & download
models: GFSL/IPSL/CMCC
scenarios: RCP 2.6, 8.5
ocean biogeochemistry only
5. validate catch against
historical records
± 80 GB
8.75 GB
UK Janet network
NetCDF Operators
Python + Fortran
3.5 sec/simulated yr
parallelized
Python
Python

8. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Projected change in catch
15/02/2018 8
RCP2.6
2100
%
change
RCP8.5
2050

9. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Present-day catches?
Sources of uncertainty and error
• observations: reporting per fishing nation, not EEZ; underreporting
• inputs: plankton and temperature from climate models
• parameterization: present and future fishing mortality (F = 0.2 yr-1)
15/02/2018 9
correlation: 0.57
FAO global capture
production database

10. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Role of fishing mortality
Why does fishing not have more of an impact?
Stock and recruitment are decoupled: production of eggs and
juveniles is set by plankton availability, not stock size
15/02/2018 10
F = 0.2 yr-1
F = 0.4 yr-1
F = 0.8 yr-1
Predications of relative change are thus robust

11. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Key findings
However:
• Due to interplay between plankton and temperature, lower
latitudes (poorer nations) are disproportionally affected
• This becomes even more pronounced if we account for
habitat change – tropical regions lose the most species
15/02/2018 11
surface temperature ↑
stratification ↑
surface nutrients ↓
plankton ↓
fish ↓

12. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Towards a service
• Contract: develop a Marine, Coastal, Fisheries
module for European seas
• phase I: consult stakeholders
• phase II: implementation and projection delivery
• Potential follow ups
• from European domain to global
• regular updates
15/02/2018 12

13. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Service design
15/02/2018 13
fish modelling
Physics and biogeochemistry
temperature, plankton
climate drivers
meteorology, river run-off, boundary conditions
CMIP, EURO-CORDEX, E-HYPE
hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry
European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model
eutrophication ocean fronts
Climate Impact Indicator suite
Climate Data Store (CDS)
Use cases – developed with partners and stakeholders
Fisheries, Eutrophication, Marine Spatial Planning, Natural Capital Accounting
Service developed by PML

14. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Thank you
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/C3S_MCF_SIS
• Manuel Barange, FAO
• Momme Butenschön, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui
Cambiamenti Climatici
• William Cheung, University of British Columbia
• Julia Blanchard, University of Tasmania
15/02/2018 14