As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a discussion on the energy industry.
Speakers included David A. Pursell with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., Matthew G. Pilon with Simmons & Company International and Robert A. Dye, Ph.D. with Comerica Bank.
2. Robert A. Dye Ph.D.
Chief Economist, Comerica Bank
March 2016
The Comerica U.S. Economic Outlook
2016: U.S. Households Versus the World
3. Increasing confidenceLow inflation
3
Reduced domestic energy exploration
China
Europe
Global Capacity Overhang
Interest rates
Emerging markets
Strong dollar
BREXIT
Job growth
Low energy prices
Increasing house prices
Homeowner equity
Wage gains
Financial market volatility
U.S. Household Spending
Positives and Negatives for U.S. Households
Mostly Global
Mostly U.S.
4. 4
Households Are In a Different Place, Part I
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
Household Savingsand Debt
Personal Savings Rate, percent, (R)
Household Financial Obligations Ratio, percent (L)
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve
5. 5
Households Are In a Different Place, Part II
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
Homeowner Equity and Net Worth
Homeowner equity, $ mil, (R)
Household net worth
$ mil (L)
Source: Federal Reserve
6. 6
Unemployment Rate Declines, But at a Slower Rate in 2016
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
+242k in February, U. Rate 4.9 Percent
Forecast
Payroll Employment, avg monthly diff, ths (L)
Unemployment Rate,
percent (R)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Comerica Bank
7. 7
Interest Rate Outlook Clouded by Fed Uncertainty
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Yield, percent
Fed Funds
10-Year Treasury Bonds
Sources: Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank
8. 8
GDP Forecast, Ongoing Moderate Expansion
(9)
(7)
(5)
(3)
(1)
1
3
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
U.S. Real GDP Growth,annualizedrate
History Forecast
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Comerica Bank
11. Regulatory vs. Legislative – no change
□ Congress – Will not pass anything meaningful in the near term
□ Executive Branch - Will push initiatives via increased regulation
Oil exports a win – but no significant impact in the near term.
11
Washington Issues - Now
15. 15
Why Is Shale Production So Resilient?
0
3
6
9
Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
USOilProduction,millionbarrelsperday
Onshore
65kbopd monthly
decline
16. 16
Why Is Shale Production So Resilient?
0
3
6
9
Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
USOilProduction,millionbarrelsperday
Onshore
65kbopd monthly
decline
17. 17
OPEC: Wildcard
Sources: IEA, TPH Research
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Production,millionbarrelsperday
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
Libya
Rest of OPEC
1.5% annual decline
~200kbpd decline in 2016
Further, OPEC growth will come from Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Libya, as
second tier OPEC is in decline
18. Iran: 1mmbpd of Excess Capacity?
18
Source: IEA, TPH Research
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Millionbarrelsperday
500 kbopd Increase
Sanctions
Post-sanctions, Iran should produce 3.3mmbpd…500kbpd higher than
current. But expect Iraq production to decline 200kbpd (leakage).
19. 19
$80/bbl Oil – It Is Possible!
Texas A&M uses furious
comeback to down Northern
Iowa, 92-88
20. 20
Analyst Certification:
I, Dave Pursell, do hereby certify that, to the best of my knowledge, the views and opinions in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the company and its securities. I have not nor will I
receive direct or indirect compensation in return for expressing specific recommendations or viewpoints in this report.
Important Disclosures:
The analysts above (or members of their household) do not own any securities mentioned in this report. John E. Lowe, Senior Executive Advisor at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., serves as a member of the board of
directors of Phillips 66, Agrium Inc., and Apache Corp.
For detailed rating information, distribution of ratings, price charts and disclosures regarding compensation policy and investment banking revenue, please visit our website at http://www.TPHco.com/disclosure or
request a written copy of the disclosures by calling 713-333-2960 (United States).
OTHER DISCLOSURES
Trade Name
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. (TPHCSI) and its non-US affiliates worldwide including Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP.
Legal Entities Disclosures
U.S.: TPHCSI is a member of FINRA and SIPC. U.K.: Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. OC349535.
Registered Office is 5th Floor, 6 St. Andrew Street, London EC4A 3AE.
Canada
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Copyright 2015, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. This information is confidential and is intended only for the individual named. This information may not be disclosed, copied or disseminated, in whole or in part, without
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institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
21. **Office of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP. Employed by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP in the United Kingdom and is not registered/qualified with FINRA and is not an
associated person of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.
Anish Kapadia, Shola Labinjo, and David Gamboa are employed by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP in the United Kingdom and are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Mr.
Kapadia, Mr. Labinjo, and Mr. Gamboa are not associated persons of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. and as such are not subject to NASD Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with subject
companies, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
RESEARCH
Oil Service / E&C
Jeff Tillery
713-333-2964
jtillery@TPHco.com
Byron Pope
713-333-7690
bpope@TPHco.com
George O’Leary
713-333-2973
goleary@TPHco.com
Taylor Zurcher
713-333-2974
tzurcher@TPHco.com
Shola Labinjo**
+44 20 3008 6437
slabinjo@TPHco.com
Integrated Oils
Dave Pursell
713-333-2962
dpursell@TPHco.com
Anish Kapadia**
+44 20 3008 6433
akapadia@TPHco.com
David Gamboa**
+44 20 3427 5896
davidgamboa@TPHco.com
Refiners
Chi Chow
303-300-1914
cchow@TPHco.com
Matthew Blair, CFA
303-300-1916
mblair@TPHco.com
TRADINGSALES
Houston
Clay Coneley
713-333-2979
cconeley@TPHco.com
Mike Bradley
713-333-2968
mbradley@TPHco.com
Rusty D’Anna
713-333-2982
rdanna@TPHco.com
Mike Davis
713-333-2971
mdavis@TPHco.com
Oliver Doolin
713-333-2989
odoolin@TPHco.com
John Hurd
713-333-2951
jhurd@TPHco.com
Aly McCaffrey
713-333-2983
amccaffrey@TPHco.com
Houston - (800) 507-2400
Scott McGarvey
smcgarvey@TPHco.com
Seth Williams
swilliams@TPHco.com
Ally Wickman
awickman@TPHco.com
New York - (800) 507-2400
Todd Wood
twood@TPHco.com
London
Harry Grist**
hgrist@TPHco.com
+44 20 3427 5832
Richard Heggs**
rheggs@TPHco.com
+44 20 3427 5833
Denver
Win Oberlin
303-300-1919
woberlin@TPHco.com
New York
Craig Webster
212-610-1652
cwebster@TPHco.com
James Fitzgerald
212-610-1653
jfitzgerald@TPHco.com
London
Jonathan Wright**
+44 20 3008 6436
jwright@TPHco.com
Macro
Dave Pursell
713-333-2962
dpursell@TPHco.com
Brandon Blossman
713-333-2994
bblossman@TPHco.com
Midstream
Jeff Schmidt
713-333-3925
jschmidt@TPHco.com
Colton Bean
713-333-2966
cbean@TPHco.com
Coal
Brandon Blossman
713-333-2994
bblossman@TPHco.com
Utilities / Power
Neel Mitra
713-333-3896
nmitra@TPHco.com
Ryan Caylor
713-333-7694
rcaylor@TPHco.com
E&P
Matt Portillo
713-333-2995
mportillo@TPHco.com
Michael Rowe
713-333-3983
mrowe@TPHco.com
Jeoffrey Lambujon
713-337-7549
jlambujon@TPHco.com
Jamaal Dardar
713-333-3926
jdardar@TPHco.com
Oliver Huang
713-333-3929
ohuang@TPHco.com
Sameer Panjwani
713-333-2996
spanjwani@TPHco.com
E&P International
Anish Kapadia**
+44 20 3008 6433
akapadia@TPHco.com
Shola Labinjo**
+44 20 3008 6437
slabinjo@TPHco.com
David Gamboa**
+44 20 3427 5896
davidgamboa@TPHco.com
23. SIMMONS&COMPANYINTERNATIONAL ENERGYSPECIALISTSOFPIPERJAFFRAY 23
U.S. Land Rig Count Back To 80s Levels (1880s!)
¹ Source: Baker Hughes for historical and Simmons Research for projected rig counts.
Current data and projections as of March 18, 2016.
² Source: Capital IQ. As of March 22, 2016.
(Average Number Of Rigs) (Dollars/Barrel)
08 – 09 Peak-To-Trough: (54%)
08 – 09 Year-Over-Year: (43%)
14 – 16P Peak-To-Trough: (77%)
14 – 16P Year-Over-Year: (72%)
Historical And Projected Quarterly Onshore U.S. Rig Count¹
876 833 728
517 422 441 490
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- - -
-
- - - -
-
- - - - - -
- - -
54 59 235 564 775 840 856
1,712
1,797
1,910
1,816
1,244
876
944
1,079
1,308
1,474
1,6081,6671,695
1,803
1,9151,9721,9471,924
1,855
1,7591,7061,7101,7091,6971,724
1,7961,8421,856
1,352
930 892
963
1,081
1,197
1,280
1,345
-$10
$10
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16P
Q2
16P
Q3
16P
Q4
16P
Historical Projections As Of March 2016 WTI Crude Oil Price²Projections As Of March 2015
24. 24SIMMONS&COMPANYINTERNATIONAL ENERGYSPECIALISTSOFPIPERJAFFRAY
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Newbuild Delivery
Massive Excess Capacity Across OFS Sectors
¹ Picture source: Houston Chronicle.
² Source: PumpingIQ. As of November 20, 2015.
³ Source: ODS Petrodata for historical data and newbuild statistics. Simmons Research for projected active rig count. Projected
supply based on current supply plus expected newbuild delivery.
U.S. Pressure Pumping² Global Offshore Drilling³
(Number Of Rigs) (Utilization)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
(Millions HHP) (Utilization)
U.S. Onshore Drilling¹ Current onshore U.S. pad drilling rig utilization
is < 50% (total ~1,000
drilling rigs).
> 80% of ~180 total newbuild offshore rigs
through 2020 are currently uncontracted.
Hydraulic fracturing demand has declined by
~47% from end of 2014.
SupplyActive UtilizationSupplyActive Utilization Additions
26. 26SIMMONS&COMPANYINTERNATIONAL ENERGYSPECIALISTSOFPIPERJAFFRAY
Recent Energy Services And Equipment Transactions
By Target GeographyBy Target Sector
¹ Source: Simmons.
Consulting/
Engineering/
Data/Software
69
Drilling &
Production Well
Services
46
Equipment
Manufacturing
43
Environmental
Services
16
Pipeline Related
16
Other
13
21%
34%
23%
8%
8%
6%
Total Transactions: 203
2015 Through March 15, 2016 Global M&A Transactions¹
U.S.
123
Europe
44
Canada
14
Asia (Excluding
China)
14
Other
8
61%
22%
7%
7%
4%
27. 27SIMMONS&COMPANYINTERNATIONAL ENERGYSPECIALISTSOFPIPERJAFFRAY
Recent U.S. Energy Services And Equipment
Transactions
¹ Source: Simmons.
Total Transactions: 123
2015 Through March 15, 2016 U.S. M&A Transactions By Target Sector¹
~64%
commoditized
services
~70% of
commoditized are
above-ground
services
Niche services
primarily
downhole-oriented
~70% upstream
equipment
Upstream focus
on production and
intervention
Downstream
primarily highly-
engineered
products
Consulting/
Engineering/
Data/Software
39
Drilling &
Production Well
Services
25
Equipment
Manufacturing
26
Environmental
Services
12
Pipeline Related
11
Other
10
21%
32%
20%
10%
9%
8%
28. 28SIMMONS&COMPANYINTERNATIONAL ENERGYSPECIALISTSOFPIPERJAFFRAY
Characteristics Of Recent Transactions
All-stock merger enables
Archer to retain upside
potential and Quintana
to conserve cash.
Quintana gains scale and
operating synergies.
Enables focus on core
operations for Archer.
Cimation provides
consulting services for
automation.
Fits with Accenture’s
expansion into asset
management.
Strategic acquisition
rationale bridges
potential gap in value
expectations.
PDi provides oilfield
engineering and project
management services.
Enables Tattva’s strategic
entry into upstream oil
and gas.
Provides liquidity to
CEONA, which is under
administration.
has acquired the
North American well
Service entities of
December 2015
an affiliate of
has been acquired by
December 2015
has sold its subsidiary
to
January 2016
30. 30SIMMONS&COMPANYINTERNATIONAL ENERGYSPECIALISTSOFPIPERJAFFRAY
First OFS equity issuance in 2016.
Significant dilution to existing
shareholders.
Driven by fear; seen as insurance
against potential further decline in
OFS activity.
Positive market response.
Case Study – Weatherford Equity Offering
¹ Source: Bloomberg.
0
20
40
60
80
100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120 WFT Volume
WFT
SLB
HAL
OSX
Offering of 100
million ordinary
shares
announced
(Price Indexed To 100) (Volume (Millions))
Weatherford Share Price Performance¹
31. Dubai
Al Fattan Currency House, Tower 2, Level 7
Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC)
PO Box 506785
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Phone: +97-1431-999-44
Fax: +97-1431-999-45
London
6 Arlington Street
London SW1A 1RE
United Kingdom
Phone: +44 (0) 207-053-1000
Fax: +44 (0) 207-053-025
Aberdeen
Simmons House
22 Waverley Place
Aberdeen AB10 1XP Scotland
Phone: +44 (0) 1224-202-300
Fax: +44 (0) 1224-202-303
Houston
700 Louisiana, Suite 1900
Houston, Texas 77002
Corporate Finance: (713) 236-9999
Securities: (713) 223-7840
Fax: (713) 223-7800
Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC) is a leading investment bank and asset management firm. Securities brokerage and investment banking services are
offered in the United States through Piper Jaffray & Co., member SIPC and FINRA; in Europe through two separate U.K.-based broker/dealers - Piper
Jaffray Ltd., authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Simmons & Company International Limited, authorized and regulated by
the Financial Conduct Authority and the Dubai Financial Services Authority as a representative office; and in Hong Kong through Piper Jaffray Hong Kong,
registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. Asset management products and services are offered through four separate investment
advisory affiliates―three registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Advisory Research, Inc.; Piper Jaffray Investment Management
LLC; and PJC Capital Partners LLC), and one international asset management firm registered with the Guernsey Financial Services Commission (Parallel
General Partner Limited).