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tippie.uiowa.edu_krause_fall2012_swn_f12

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Important	disclosures	appear	on	the	last	page	of	this	report.	
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Analysts:
Michael Faraone
michael-fara...
The University of Iowa
Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research
Important	disclosures	appear	on	the	last	pa...
The University of Iowa
Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research
Important	disclosures	appear	on	the	last	pa...
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  1. 1. Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 1 Analysts: Michael Faraone michael-faraone@uiowa.edu Jeffrey Pomykala jeffrey-pomykala@uiowa.edu Brock Gilbert brock-gilbert@uiowa.edu Company Overview Southwestern Energy is an independent energy company based out of Houston, focused on natural gas and oil exploration, development, and production. While its main business segment of focus is exploration and development of natural gas and oil, Southwestern Energy is also engaged in midstream services that support the exploration and production business segment, mostly in the Fayetteville Shale play. Southwestern Energy’s main focus of producing natural gas is conducted in seven leased locations; six in the United States, and one in New Brunswick, Canada. Under the terms of these leases, Southwestern Energy currently produces on 1.5 million acres of land. Stock Performance Highlights 52 week High $43.70 52 week Low $25.63 Beta Value 1.34 Average Volume (10 Day) 3.27 m Share Highlights Market Capitalization $11.89 b Shares Outstanding 349.1 m Book Value per share $10.10 EPS (ttm) $-0.14 P/E Ratio (ttm) N/A Dividend Yield N/A Dividend Payout Ratio N/A Company Performance Highlights ROA 8.07% ROE 16.07% Sales 2.95 b Financial Ratios Current Ratio 1.11 Debt to Equity 0.99 Current Price: $35.00 Target Price: $42.00 ‐ $48.00 SWN Continues to Improve  Production: Due to strong Fayetteville and Marcellus Shale results, 2012 production increased by 13% over year-end 2011 production. We predict these two plays will continue to provide sufficient production levels.  The Economy: SWN and natural gas prices are closely tied to the overall economy. We expect natural gas prices will increase on par with the Henry Hub estimates, reaching $4.89/Mcf by 2018. With a slow but steady improvement to the economy, SWN will benefit through increased natural gas demand and prices.  Positioning and Costs: SWN discovered the Fayetteville play and has first mover advantage which lowers per acre cost, as well as, production royalties. Southwestern is also currently one of the lowest cost operators in the industry, with finding and development of $1.31/Mcfe and cash operating costs of $1.14/Mcfe.  Hedging: With the low prices in the natural gas market, Southwestern’s ability to hedge 47% of its production for 2012 at $5.16 and 29% of 2013 production at $5.06 has secured some positive cash flow for the company.  Exploration: Currently SWN holds exploration licenses for 2.5 million acres within the Maritimes basin play, with options on license extensions. Source: Yahoo! Finance Krause Fund Research Fall 2012 Energy Southwestern Energy Company NYSE: SWN Recommendation: BUY November 13, 2012
  2. 2. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 2 Through company and industry-specific research, as well as valuation models, we calculated the intrinsic value of SWN common stock as $43.51, concluding that the market price is undervalued. After our research, we placed a buy rating on this stock. The following analysis and models contained in this report explain our investment recommendation. Key Economic Variables Real GDP The United States real GDP was 2% annualized growth for the third quarter of 2012. The real GDP increased from the second quarter, which was revised down to 1.3%, but still fell short of the 2011 year end real GDP of 3%. The increase between Q2 and Q3 was caused in large part by the increase in personal consumption. The personal consumption increase was led by purchases of durable goods, indicating that consumers are more optimistic to make these larger purchases, a positive sign for further economic improvement looking forward. The energy sector is a key driver of GDP with energy as an input for all goods produced. We expect that the real GDP will remain at 2% over the upcoming 6 month period and slowly increase back to the average 3% within 3 years. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production is expected to average annual growth of 6.9%, compared to GDP growth forecasts of 2.6% through 20151 . Historical GDP Growth. Source: Trading Economics Interest Rates Ben Bernanke recently announced implementation of QE3, the difference of this round compared to other attempts is that it is open-ended. Interest rates will remain depressed at a range of 0 – 0.25% through 2015; a year longer than first proposed, at a range of 0 - 0.25%. The depressed FFR will likely keep market interest rates low. This is beneficial for companies within the energy sector as it is a capital intensive industry. With an enhanced ability to borrow at lower costs, we expect many companies in the energy sector to continue increasing its capital expenditure programs. Low rates will also allow companies to refinance current debt at lower costs, in-line with increased capital expenditure programs. Mid-year mergers and acquisitions were at 231 compared to 256 at the same time period in 20112 . With the rates depressed, we expect that M&A will still play a major role, but its impact will continue to slow as interest rates in future years begin to rise. Historical Interest Rates. Source: Yahoo! Finance U.S. Dollar Index As indicated by the graph below, the U.S. dollar index has an inverse relationship with oil prices, as do all commodities. For oil being traded in U.S. dollars, this is not an ideal situation. Other countries are able to purchase more oil with a weakened dollar, increasing demand, and therefore, price. Since the U.S. dollar index is positively correlated with interest rates and the QE3 will keep interest rates low through 2015, we should see the U.S. dollar index remain stable in the short term; assuming no European Union Collapse. The U.S. dollar index is dependent on the outcome of the Eurozone crisis. Depending on what becomes of the Eurozone crisis, there may be an impact on the U.S. dollar index. The European Central Bank’s recent bailout offers an unlimited amount of bond buying in those countries still struggling to repay debt. Spain and Greece remain threats, especially since Spain has refused bailout help and continues to increase debt. Another area of concern is the banks that suffered losses from defaults and have decreased lending, further hurting the European Economy. The bond buying program has bought Europe roughly a year to solve its issues3 . Investment Thesis Economic Outlook
  3. 3. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 3 United States Dollar Index vs. Crude Oil Price. Source: Y- Charts Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate came in at 7.9% for the month of October, a .1% increase over September’s figure. There were also 171,000 jobs added to the economy in October. The increase was caused in part by an increase in the labor pool, with over 500,000 workers re-entering the job search market4 . Though the numbers show improvement, they remain high with below average growths in GDP. The impending fiscal cliff plays a large role in determining expectations for what unemployment will be in the short- term. The Congressional Budget office warns that unemployment could reach as high as 9.1% in 2013 if a solution is not reached5 . We feel that a solution will be achieved and that unemployment will stay right around the 8% mark for the next six months as the economy improves slowly but surely. In the long term (2-3 years), we expect unemployment to decrease to just below 7%. We expect the energy sector to see benefits from the economic growth predicted. Historical Unemployment Rate. Source: Trading Economics Consumer Confidence Index The consumer confidence index forecasts how confident consumers are with the economy and its current financial situation. It is also an important measure of consumers’ trust in the future state of the economy. Consumer sentiment measured 84.9 in November 2012; a 5-year high. This marked the fourth month in a row that consumers showed increasing confidence in the economy. After the release of this data, oil futures increased 1.2%. The increase in confidence means consumers are willing to spend more money and an increase in spending stimulates demand and spurs economic growth. This is unexpected as we come ever closer to the fiscal cliff that will increase taxes and decrease government spending. It seems that consumers are confident that the government will find a solution to avoid this fiscal cliff; at least for the time being. We expect that consumer confidence will stay at these high levels, further improving the economy in the short term. If the fiscal cliff is avoided, we expect to see consumer confidence levels reach close to 89, the average prior to entering the recession 6 . We also expect the economic growth to increase demand amongst firms in the energy sector. Consumer Sentiment Index. Source: Advisor Perspectives The Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry is expected to be less volatile than in recent years. With oil and gas prices likely to rise, industry revenue will grow at an annualized rate of 2.6% through 2017. Although alternative sources of energy, like biofuels, will grow in importance over the coming years, they will not play a large role in displacing oil as the number one source of energy7 . Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Companies in the Independent Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry explore, develop, and work in offshore or onshore oil and natural gas fields. Primary activities and services in this industry include crude oil extraction, liquefied natural gas production (LNG), liquefied petroleum production (LNP), natural gas extraction, oil and gas extraction, and oil shale extraction. Industry Analysis Crude Oil Price U.S. Dollar Index
  4. 4. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 4 The Independent Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry has two main products in natural gas; this includes natural gas liquids and dry natural gas. Based on estimates, crude oil is expected to account for 58.4% of the global output with natural gas at 41.6% in 2012. In comparison, we expect Southwestern Energy’s output to consistently remain at approximately 99% natural gas with the remaining percentile consisting of crude oil8 . E&P Product Mix. Source: IBISWorld Exploration and Production Life Cycle The exploration and production industry is currently declining, with Industry Value Added expected to grow at an annualized rate of 4.6% through 2017. Although GDP is expected to grow at 1.9% annualized over the same period, inflated revenue in this industry masks the decline in production. Technology within this industry is well- established and its products are not new, two factors indicative of a declining industry. In addition, oil fields that were discovered years ago are beginning to decline, limiting future supply and causing output to remain flat. Although oil supply is somewhat limited, future exploration activities that are deemed successful could cause a change to the industry’s life cycle7. Natural Gas: Brief Overview Natural Gas is a major source of energy in the United States, accounting for approximately 25% (24.37 Tcf) of energy consumption in 2011. The largest consumers of natural gas consist of the Electric Power (7.6 Tcf), Industrial (6.8 Tcf), Residential (4.7 Tcf), and Commercial (3.2 Tcf) sectors9 . Natural Gas Consumption. Source: SWN Investor Relations Natural Gas Consumption Natural gas demand has been lower than expected; mainly due to the warmer 2011-12 winter season. Compared to the prior season, there was an 18% decrease in home heating days. Consumption of natural gas is expected to increase 4.3% by the end of 2012 and 2.4% throughout 2013, according to the EIA. This growth in consumption is higher than the 50-year, 25-year, and 10-year CAGR of 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.9%, respectively. This growth in consumption is expected to come from an increase in electric power consumption of natural gas, which will offset the lower than normal demand in the commercial and residential sectors10 . Natural Gas Inventory Levels Inventory levels in 2012 surpassed the record highs that were set in the previous two years. The warm 2011-12 winter season led to lower demand for natural gas and lower withdrawals from storage. A normal withdrawal season lasts from November 1 to March 30. The 2012 withdrawal season ended on March 9, 2012, three weeks prior to the normal season ending with post-withdrawal inventory of 2,369 Bcfe. Although post-withdrawal inventory is above average, increases in electric power consumption of natural gas have slowed the increase in inventory from 61% to 32.6%10. If the 2012-13 winter season continues with above average temperatures, storage levels will remain high resulting in a continuation of low natural gas prices.
  5. 5. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 5 Natural Gas in Storage. Source: EIA Natural Gas: Production and Supply In recent years, technical innovations have caused a boom in the supply of natural gas. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing allow drillers to reach depths that were either too difficult or too costly to reach before. These improvements in technology have triggered the supply of natural gas to increase, since more natural gas can be produced from a single well. In 2011, the U.S. produced 24.169 Tcf of natural gas, setting a new record. This is an increase of approximately 20% over the year 2000, in which 20.197 Tcf of natural gas was produced9. We expect this increase in supply to put pressure on Southwestern Energy, since most of its revenue is generated through natural gas sales and increased supply will lead to lower pricing. Natural Gas Prices Since 2005, when natural gas hit an all-time high of $15.40/MMbtu, price has seen a steady decrease. As of October 2012, Henry Hub natural gas spot prices averaged $3.31/MMbtu; a decrease of $0.25 from the October 2011 average. According to the EIA, 2013 Henry Hub gas prices are expected to average approximately $3.49/MMbtu9. Henry Hub Natural Gas Price. Source: EIA The natural gas futures curve can also be used to forecast natural gas prices. As seen on the graph below, natural gas prices are expected to steadily rise for the coming years. Although prices are forecasted to rise, they will not reach the pre-natural gas boom levels ($8-$9) until at least 202311 . Natural Gas Futures Curve. Source: Factset The Pickens Plan The re-election of President Obama could be good news for natural gas. Currently, the United States spends $453 billion importing oil from OPEC; accounting for almost 60% of the country’s oil consumption. With oil demand exceeding supply, shifts to new types of energy are what is needed. President Obama supports the Pickens Plan, which could help increase the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel. With natural gas supply far outweighing demand, this could be the alternative source of fuel the U.S. economy has been searching for. With approximately 1.5 million miles of pipelines running through the U.S., natural gas is available to almost every portion of the country12 . Markets and Competition Concentration in the independent oil and gas exploration and production industry is low, which is reflected in the
  6. 6. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 6 industry’s large size and the difficulty for companies to control a large portion of this industry. The four largest companies account for approximately 30% of industry revenue. Exploration and production is a high-risk, high- return activity, as most exploration efforts do not end with locating a feasible oil field. If a prolific oil field is found, all capital expenditures must be covered by the company. Companies compete essentially on the basis of price; however, there are many factors which affect the price such as supply and demand, oil grade, and impurities. For a producer to be successful, it must be able to locate the larger oil fields, since they are more economical to develop. In addition, a producer’s access to resources and ability to meet environmental regulations are also key success factors for this industry. Major players within this industry include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, BP PLC, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron Corporation7. Major Companies vs. SWN. Source: Yahoo! Finance Overview Southwestern Energy is an independent energy company focused on natural gas and oil exploration, development, and production that is based in North America. Southwestern Energy’s main business segment of focus is exploration and development of natural gas and oil. It’s also engaged in midstream services that support the exploration and production business segment mostly in the Fayetteville Shale play. Southwestern Energy’s main focus is on producing natural gas with 6 locations in the United States under lease as well as one in New Brunswick, Canada. Under these leases Southwestern Energy currently produces on 1.5 million acres of land8. SWN Areas of Operation. Source: SWN At year end in 2011 Southwestern’s estimates for proved reserves in oil and natural gas was 5,893 Bcfe; a figure that has been increasing the past two years13 . At current production level of 500 Bcfe per year, we expect these proved reserves would be depleted in 11.79 years. SWN Proved Reserves. Source: SWN Investor Relations Corporate Strategy First and foremost, Southwestern Energy’s business strategy is to continue to develop in the Fayetteville Shale and Marcellus Shale plays, with a strong focus on the Fayetteville Shale where it holds 925,842 net acres. The Fayetteville Shale play accounted for 87% of its oil and natural gas production, as well as, proved reserves in 2011. It is expected that the Marcellus Shale will play a bigger role in production in the future8. Another focus is to increase efficiency with vertical integration and economies of scale. Economies of scale for Southwestern Energy are accomplished by the close proximity of its operations, which allows for lower cost. The focus is also on the operation of its most profitable wells. Southwestern Energy is also concentrating on growth by actively seeking new areas for operations; especially in light of Southwestern Energy Analysis
  7. 7. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 7 recent discoveries of undeveloped lands in New Brunswick and the Lower Smackover Brown Dense formation. Increasing the Midstream segment of business is also part of its strategy. To date, Southwestern has constructed 1,791 miles of gas lines in the Fayetteville Shale play alone8. Financial Summary Natural gas production accounts for nearly all of the operating income and this is expected to continue in the future. In 2011, Southwestern Energy’s net income was $637.8 million. Southwestern released its second quarter results on August 2, 2012, which reported a net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2012 of $380.4 million. This was primarily caused due to a $578.9 million non- cash ceiling impairment test of natural gas and oil products. Production increased 33 Bcfe overall in 2012, with increases in Fayetteville Shale and Marcellus Shale accounting for most of it. Southwestern has one of the lowest operating costs in the industry with finding and development at $1.31/ Mcfe as well as cash operating costs of $1.20/ Mcfe8. As the graph below shows Southwestern energy operates at a much lower cost of production compared to its peers. Production Cost Comparison (Mcfe). Source: Company 10-K’s Fayetteville Shale This shale is the primary focus of Southwestern Energy’s exploration and development sector. Production from the Fayetteville shale was 436.8 Bcf, and roughly 5,104 of its reserves are located here. The production rate of Fayetteville was around 1,877 MMcf per day, through June 30, 20128. Southwestern Energy, as of December 31, 2011, held leases for 925,842 net acres in the Fayetteville Shale play. Since Southwestern discovered the play in 2004, it has drilled 3,095 wells, with 650 implemented in 2011 alone. The average price to complete the wells was $2.8 million. As of the second quarters end, Southwestern had 131 horizontal wells in production, and were utilizing 11 rigs; 7 of which have the ability to drill horizontal wells8. In April 2012, Southwestern Energy created a subsidiary, SWN Well Services L.L.C, and began ordering fracture stimulation equipment which it plans to use for two spreads that are expected to be functional by fourth quarter of 2012 in the Fayetteville Shale8. Fayetteville Shale Production. Source: SWN Investor Relations Marcellus Shale Southwestern holds approximately 186,893 net acres in the play located in northeastern Pennsylvania, which it began leasing in 2007 to gain a competitive advantage. It created 70 wells here in 2011 and used 23 of them for production. This location holds 342Bcf of the proved reserves. The Marcellus Shale accounted for 23.4 Bcf production of natural gas in 2011. Southwestern energy is turning towards Marcellus to remove dependence on the Fayetteville Play. It is believed that this play will outperform the Fayetteville play in terms of return on investment. Southwestern was able to lease the acreage at an average cost of $1,000 with royalty fees at 13%. This play is expected to be producing 800MMcfe/day within a five year timeframe, after which production is expected to remain level for roughly 8 years14 New Ventures Southwestern Energy is always scouting new locations and its search found 2,518,518 net acres, all of which is undeveloped, in New Brunswick, Canada; the first time Southwestern would operate outside of the United States8. This site is being tested, but development has been postponed until 2013. With such a massive amount of acreage, if this venture pans out we can expect to see the value of the stock react in 2013. Southwestern Energy has also made a move on the Lower Smackover Brown Dense. As of June 30, 2012, this area located in Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana has 563,000 net acres. The land was obtained for roughly $375 per acre and Southwestern is currently testing in the area8. Range Resources (RRC) $4.57/Mcfe Ultra Petroleum $4.48/Mcfe Linn Energy $4.26/Mcfe Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $3.16/Mcfe Southwestern Energy (SWN) $2.52/Mcfe Production Costs ($/ Mcfe)
  8. 8. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 8 Midstream Services Southwestern Energy is involved in gas gathering and is currently active in Texas, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania through its subsidiaries. The primary purpose of its midstream service is to support its exploration and production segment. The majority of the revenue earned is from fees associated with delivering its gas and third party gas to the market. The majority of this segment is located in Arkansas to complement its E&P segment in the Fayetteville Shale. Its midstream services accounted for $142,591 million of Southwestern Energy’s 2011 net income 8. Strengths Reserve Replacement When an exploration and production company is able to add new reserves to replace reserves close to depletion, this is a strong indication of long-term positive performance. Southwestern Energy’s reserve replacement ratio, including revisions, has averaged above 400% for the three year period ending on December 31, 2011. This reserve replacement ratio is primarily driven by increases in reserves linked to increased development of the Marcellus Shale play and Fayetteville Shale play. Southwestern Energy replaced 299% of production volumes with an increase of 1,459.4 Bcfe of proved gas and oil reserves in 2011 and 430% of production volumes with an increase of 1,431.1 Bcfe in 2010. A majority of these reserve additions were generated from organic growth in the Fayetteville and Marcellus Shale plays8. If Southwestern Energy continues to find additional reserves in these primary drilling operations, it will continue to see positive growth. Production In 2011, natural gas production averaged 1,370.0 MMcfe, an increase of 23.56% over 2010 production, which averaged 1,108.8 MMcfe. This increase mostly results from an 86.6 Bcf increase and a 22.4 Bcf increase from the Fayetteville and Marcellus Shale plays, respectively. Southwestern Energy is also predicting a 13.0% growth rate over 2011 production; targeting natural gas and crude oil production of 560 to 570 Bcfe in 20128. We expect that the Fayetteville and Marcellus Shales will continue to produce a sufficient amount of natural gas for Southwestern’s drilling operations. Weaknesses Reliance on Fayetteville and Marcellus Shale Plays At year-end 2011, Southwestern Energy invested approximately $2.0 billion in its E&P business. $1.3 billion and $322 million was invested in the Fayetteville and Marcellus Shale plays, respectively. This is 81% of the total 2011 E&P investment. Southwestern also invested approximately $933.0 Million and $30.7 Million in its gas gathering system for the Fayetteville Shale play and Marcellus Shale play, respectively. If these two drilling programs fail to produce significant supplies of natural gas, investments in its gas gathering operation could be lost, resulting in forced charges for assets not used8. Flexibility By relying on natural gas production from the Fayetteville and Marcellus Shales, Southwestern does not have the option to switch to crude oil production like most E&P companies. As of July 2011, the LSBD formation was Southwestern’s only oil play. This could prove to be a weakness for Southwestern, as the volatility of natural gas prices could play an important role in future operations8. Opportunities New Ventures In July 2011, Southwestern Energy announced that it would be testing a new unconventional horizontal oil play targeting the LSBD formation; an upper Jurassic age, kerogen-rich carbonate source rock found across the Gulf Coast region from Texas to Florida. As of December 2011, SWN held approximately 520,619 net undeveloped acres in the area, purchased at an average cost $375/acre8. If this new drilling program is successful, we expect that activity in this particular area will increase significantly in future years. Capital Investments Throughout 2012, Southwestern Energy plans on investing approximately $1.8 Billion in its exploration and production program. This would lead to the company drilling between 555 and 565 wells, 501 to 530 of which it will operate. $1.1 Billion will be invested in the Fayetteville Shale play, $526 Million associated in increased Marcellus Shale play activity, $177 Million in exploration and New Ventures projects, and an $18 Million investment split between East Texas and the Arkoma Basin. Based on these capital investments, Southwestern Energy expects 2012 oil production of approximately 560 to 570 Bcfe, which is an increase of about 13% over 2011 oil production8. We expect S.W.O.T Analysis
  9. 9. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 9 Southwestern Energy will continue to invest a substantial amount of capital into the Fayetteville and Marcellus Shale plays in future years. Threats Oil and Gas Price Volatility Prices of natural gas and oil have, historically, been very volatile and subject to wide fluctuation. Factors such as market uncertainty, worldwide economic conditions, competition from alternative sources of energy, and actions taken by OPEC could cause oil and gas prices to change significantly. Natural gas prices ranged from $13.58/MMBtu in 2008 to $2.32/MMBtu in January 2012. Price volatility makes it difficult to accurately predict the return on exploration and development projects involving oil and natural gas. Volatile prices also lead to disruption in the oil and gas market, since buyers and sellers often find it difficult to agree on what is a reasonable price to pay for properties8. If natural gas prices remain volatile in future years, Southwestern’s common stock price could potentially be negatively affected. Overview We calculated the intrinsic value of SWN stock using four valuation models: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Economic Profit (EP), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), and Relative Valuation. Based on the results we obtained from these models, we concluded a target price range of $42.00 - $48.00. Southwestern Energy common stock is currently trading at $35.00. Recommendation We concluded our research and analysis by placing a Buy rating on Southwestern Energy common stock. Although natural gas prices have been volatile in recent years, we expect that natural gas prices will begin to rise slowly in future years, reaching approximately $4.89/Mcf in 2018. Southwestern Energy will continue to increase production, and with natural gas price set to increase in future years, we believe this company will remain profitable for many years. Key Assumptions Revenue We forecasted our revenue based on a variety of different factors. First, we applied a growth rate of 4.63% to natural gas prices. This growth rate was created by taking the average growth in Henry Hub Spot Price estimates through 2018. The growth rate we applied to crude oil price was 4.50%, which was obtained through industry estimates and economic outlook. We also applied a growth rate of 3.00% to Southwestern’s total production. In order to find the natural gas and crude oil production estimates, we made natural gas production equal to 99% of total production and applied the remaining percentile to oil production. In addition, we estimated that Southwestern Energy would only sell 88% of natural gas production. Since crude oil and natural gas are scaled differently, we made sure to account for the fact that 1 MBbl equals 6 MMcf and 1 MMBbl equals 6 Bcf. We also grew gas gathering and gas marketing revenues by ten and 8 percent, respectively. Expenses We forecasted Southwestern Energy’s operating expenses by multiplying its lease operating cost of $0.79 and its natural gas sales volume. We calculated future cost of oil and gas purchases assuming a constant percent of revenue of 25%. We forecasted Southwestern’s general and administrative, depreciation, and tax expenses, using a 10- year historical average as a percentage of sales. WACC Estimation First, we used the CAPM model to calculate our cost of equity. With the growth rate of the economy staying low, we used the 30-year Treasury Bond yield of 2.92% as our risk-free rate. For our equity risk premium, we used Damodaran’s implied risk premium of 5.92%. We then found the raw beta using an average from the Bloomberg terminal, which came out as 1.34. We plugged these values into the CAPM to achieve a cost of equity of 10.85%.Using FINRA, we found the yield on Southwestern’s longest maturity bond as the pre-tax cost of debt of 8.62%. After applying the marginal tax rate to the cost of debt, we calculated an after-tax cost of debt of 5.27%. Finally, we calculated WACC to be 10.03%, using the figures above and the weights of equity and debt. Our WACC estimation was then used in our DCF and EP models. Valuation Analysis
  10. 10. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 10 DCF and EP Models We used the Discounted Cash Flow and Economic Profit models to obtain a target price for Southwestern Energy common stock. These models produced a target price of $42.61 as of November 13, 2012. In the DCF model, we used our WACC estimation to discount future cash flows. For the EP model, we calculated economic profit by subtracting the WACC multiplied by the beginning invested capital from NOPLAT. When calculating the continuing value for these models, we applied a CV growth rate of 3.50% to account for inflation. After obtaining the value of operating assets from these models, we added back non-operating assets and subtracted the value of debt and other claims to arrive at the value of equity. Dividend Discount Model For this model, we used the EPS for the CV period, CV growth rate, CV ROE, and cost of equity to calculate the P/E multiple. This P/E multiple was then discounted by the cost of equity to give us future cash flows. Since we do not expect Southwestern Energy to pay dividends in the future, our intrinsic value of $12.89 was much lower than our other models. However, we do not believe this target price accurately predicts the value of Southwestern common stock and therefore was not included when making our final investment recommendation. Relative Valuation We also valued the price of SWN stock using relative valuation and computing a P/E ratio. Using this model, we calculated an intrinsic value of $40.45. To find the intrinsic value, we calculated P/E ratios of firms with comparable market caps to Southwestern Energy, and then removed any outliers we thought were negatively affecting the model. We used a variety of variables that we felt were important to the target price when constructing our sensitivity analysis. These tests allowed us to see how small changes in key variables affect the target price of SWN stock. We concluded that our target price has a valid range after running the sensitivity analysis. CV Growth vs. WACC Our first test was the CV growth rate against the WACC. The CV growth rate is an important factor in our model because it causes our value of equity to change, which affects the DCF target price. Since WACC is also incorporated into the DCF target price, we were interested in seeing how changes in both of the variables would affect the outcome of SWN stock price. CV Growth vs. Beta We also tested CV growth against beta, since both of these variables are included in calculating the DCF target price. This analysis had a much smaller effect on the target price than testing CV growth against WACC. MRP vs. Risk-Free Rate We then tested our risk premium against our risk-free rate. Since both of these variables are incorporated into calculating the cost of equity, which is used to calculate DDM price, we felt it was an important test to run. Gas Price Growth vs. Total Production Growth We applied a constant growth rate of 4.63% and 3.00% to natural gas prices and total production, respectively. Running this analysis allowed us to view how changes in gas price and production would change the target price of SWN stock. This analysis showed that changes in gas price growth had a larger effect on the target price than production growth. G&A Expense vs. Total Production Growth Our final test was comparing changes in general and administrative expense growth to total production growth. This analysis showed that an increase in production and a decrease in general and administrative expense lead to a higher target price. Since our general and administrative expense was calculated using revenue, we were interested to see how these two variables would change the target price. Sensitivity Analysis
  11. 11. The University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of BusinessKrause Fund Research Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. 11 Important Disclaimer This report was created by students enrolled in the Security Analysis (6F:112) class at the University of Iowa. The report was originally created to offer an internal investment recommendation for the University of Iowa Krause Fund and its advisory board. The report also provides potential employers and other interested parties an example of the students’ skills, knowledge and abilities. Members of the Krause Fund are not registered investment advisors, brokers or officially licensed financial professionals. The investment advice contained in this report does not represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. Unless otherwise noted, facts and figures included in this report are from publicly available sources. This report is not a complete compilation of data, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. From time to time, the University of Iowa, its faculty, staff, students, or the Krause Fund may hold a financial interest in the companies mentioned in this report. References: 1 Bloomberg Economic Calendar http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar 2 Deloitte Oil & Gas Pricing Outlook http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom- UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/Energy_us_er /us_er_MAReport_Midyear2012_0812.PDF 3 Europe Turns Corner http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf/story/after-3- bumpy-years-europe-turns- corner/4a468ac330664326a44f36de609236b4 4 U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-11- 02/news/34881947_1_unemployment-rate-jobs-report-jobless- rate 5 Fiscal Cliff Effect on Unemployment http://www.examiner.com/article/cbo-warns-unemployment- will-rise-to-9-1-if-deal-on-fiscal-cliff-is-not-reached-1 6 Oil Rises as Consumer Sentiment Gains http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-09/oil-is-steady- as-politicians-squabble-while-gasoline 7 Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Report http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/default.aspx?en tid=103 8 Southwestern Energy Co. 10‐K http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7332/000000733212000003/ swn123111form10k.htm 9 EIA Natural Gas http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/ 10 NetAdvantage Natural Gas Report http://www.netadvantage.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/NetA dvantage/showIndustrySurvey.do?code=ngd 11 Henry Fund Report – Venu Gadde http://tippie.uiowa.edu/henry/reports12/apa_sp12.pdf 12 The Pickens Plan http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan 13 Southwestern Energy Investor Presentation http://www.swn.com/investors/LIP/latestinvestorpresentation.pdf 14 Marcellus Shale http://seekingalpha.com/article/857921-southwestern-energy- marcellus-production-to-exceed-500-mmcf-per-day-in-18- months
  12. 12. Southwestern Energy Key Assumptions of Valuation Model Ticker Symbol SWN Current Share Price 34.71 Fiscal Year End Dec. 31 Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 8.62% Beta 1.34 Risk‐Free Rate 2.92% Equity Risk‐Premium 5.92% CV Growth 3.50% CV of NOPLAT 1,939.67   CV ROIC 15.04% Marginal Tax 38.82% DCF/EP Target Price 42.87 For Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Operating Revenues 2,812.93$ 3,036.84$ 3,278.65$ 3,539.81$ 3,821.86$ 4,126.50$ 4,455.53$ Operating Costs and Expenses 1,961.89 2,098.43 2,245.28 2,403.27 2,573.28 2,756.25 2,953.20 Operating Income 851.04 938.41 1,033.37 1,136.53 1,248.58 1,370.25 1,502.33 Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes 817.14 896.77 987.88 1,086.99 1,194.10 1,310.89 1,437.49 Provision for Income Taxes 317.21 348.12 383.50 421.97 463.55 508.89 558.03 Net Income Attributable to SWN 499.93$ 548.64$ 604.39$ 665.02$ 730.55$ 802.00$ 879.46$ Common Stock Statistics: Earnings per Share 1.42$ 1.56$ 1.71$ 1.88$ 2.07$ 2.26$ 2.48$ Year End Shares Outstanding 352.02 352.82 353.07 353.32 353.69 354.22 354.74 Expected Cash Dividends -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Capitalization: Total Debt 1,665.57$ 1,824.83$ 1,993.02$ 2,197.85$ 2,400.44$ 2,628.36$ 2,861.58$ Total Equity 4,505.92 5,074.54 5,686.57 6,359.93 7,102.92 7,923.40 8,823.00 Total Capitalization 6,171.49$ 6,899.36$ 7,679.59$ 8,557.78$ 9,503.36$ 10,551.76$ 11,684.57$ Total Assets 8,833.19$ 9,703.93$ 10,634.23$ 11,668.41$ 12,780.49$ 14,007.12$ 15,329.54$ Capitalization Ratios: Debt 26.99% 26.45% 25.95% 25.68% 25.26% 24.91% 24.49% Equity 73.01% 73.55% 74.05% 74.32% 74.74% 75.09% 75.51% Capital Expenditures 1,500.00$ 1,500.00$ 1,600.00$ 1,850.00$ 1,900.00$ 2,100.00$ 2,200.00$ Exploration & Production: Natural Gas: Production (Bcf) 569.37 586.45 604.05 622.17 640.83 660.06 679.86 Average Price per $Mcf Excluding Hedges 3.72$ 3.90$ 4.08$ 4.27$ 4.46$ 4.67$ 4.89$ Natural Gas Price Growth Rate 4.63% Natural Gas Production Sales Volume 88.00% 501.05 516.08 531.56 547.51 563.93 580.85 598.28 Oil: Production (MBbl) 104.50 107.63 110.86 114.19 117.62 121.14 124.78 Average Price per $Bbl Exluding Hedges 89.87$ 93.91$ 98.14$ 102.56$ 107.17$ 111.99$ 117.03$ Oil Price Growth Rate 4.50% Total Natural Gas and Oil Production (Bcfe) 570.00 587.10 604.71 622.85 641.54 660.79 680.61 Total Natural Gas and Oil Production Growth Rate 3.00% Midstream Services: Gas Volumes Marketed (Bcf) 638.91 667.66 697.71 729.11 761.92 796.20 832.03 Gas Volumes Gathered (Bcf) 768.07 791.11 814.85 839.29 864.47 890.40 917.12
  13. 13. Southwestern Energy Revenue Decomposition In Millions Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Exploration & Production: Natural Gas Production (Bcfe) 299.70  403.60  499.40  569.37 586.45 604.05 622.17 640.83 660.06 679.86 Oil Production (MBbl) 124.00 171.00 97.00 104.50 107.63 110.86 114.19 117.62 121.14 124.78 Total Production (Bcfe) 300.40 404.70 500.00 570.00 587.10 604.71 622.85 641.54 660.79 680.61 Natural Gas Sales Volume (Bcfe) ‐ ‐ ‐ 501.05 516.08 531.56 547.51 563.93 580.85 598.28 Average Gas Price per Mcf (excluding hedges) 3.34 3.93 3.56 3.72 3.90 4.08 4.27 4.46 4.67 4.89 Average Oil Price per Bbl (excluding hedges) 54.99 76.84 94.08 89.87 93.91 98.14 102.56 107.17 111.99 117.03 Gas Revenue 1,578.26 1,856.24 2,080.24 1,866.32 2,011.31 2,167.57 2,335.96 2,517.44 2,713.02 2,923.79 Oil Revenue 6.84 13.11 9.09 9.39 10.11 10.88 11.71 12.61 13.57 14.60 E&P Revenues  1,585.10 1,869.35 2,089.33 1,875.71 2,021.42 2,178.45 2,347.67 2,530.05 2,726.59 2,938.40 Midstream Services: Gas Marketing Revenue 488.66 615.91 714.12 771.25 832.95 899.59 971.56 1,049.28 1,133.22 1,223.88 Gas Gathering Revenue 74.28 122.91 149.97 164.97 181.47 199.61 219.58 241.53 265.69 292.25 Gas Volumes Marketed (Bcf) 382.50 495.80 611.40 638.91 667.66 697.71 729.11 761.92 796.20 832.03 Gas Volumes Gathered (Bcf) 387.10 588.30 745.70 768.07 791.11 814.85 839.29 864.47 890.40 917.12 Midstream Services Revenues 562.94 738.83 864.10 936.22 1,014.42 1,099.20 1,191.13 1,290.81 1,398.91 1,516.14 Other Segments Total Other Revenues (2.26) 2.49 (0.52) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Total Revenue (in Millions) 2,145.78 2,610.66 2,952.91 2,812.93 3,036.84 3,278.65 3,539.81 3,821.86 4,126.50 4,455.53
  14. 14. Southwestern Energy Income Statement In Millions Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Gas sales 1,578.26 1,856.24 2,080.24 1,866.32 2,011.31 2,167.57 2,335.96 2,517.44 2,713.02 2,923.79 Gas marketing 488.66 615.91 714.12 771.25 832.95 899.59 971.56 1,049.28 1,133.22 1,223.88 Oil sales 6.84 13.11 9.09 9.39 10.11 10.88 11.71 12.61 13.57 14.60 Gas gathering 74.28 122.91 149.97 164.97 181.47 199.61 219.58 241.53 265.69 292.25 Other operating revenue -2.26 2.49 -0.52 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Total operating revenues 2,145.78 2,610.66 2,952.91 2,812.93 3,036.84 3,278.65 3,539.81 3,821.86 4,126.50 4,455.53 Gas purchases - midstream services 482.84 611.16 709.09 703.23 759.21 819.66 884.95 955.47 1,031.62 1,113.88 Operating expenses 136.54 191.77 240.94 395.83 407.70 419.93 432.53 445.51 458.87 472.64 General & administrative expenses 122.62 145.56 158.04 156.12 168.54 181.97 196.46 212.11 229.02 247.28 Depreciation, depletion & amortization 493.66 590.33 704.51 651.44 703.30 759.30 819.78 885.10 955.65 1,031.85 Taxes, other than income taxes 37.28 50.61 65.52 55.27 59.67 64.42 69.55 75.09 81.08 87.55 Total operating costs & expenses 2,180.75 1,589.44 1,878.11 1,961.89 2,098.43 2,245.28 2,403.27 2,573.28 2,756.25 2,953.20 Operating income (loss) -34.97 1,021.23 1,074.80 851.04 938.41 1,033.37 1,136.53 1,248.58 1,370.25 1,502.33 Interest on debt 55.58 57.14 65.42 80.53 99.86 109.42 119.51 131.80 143.95 157.63 Other interest charges 3.27 1.94 4.31 1.95 1.97 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07 Interest capitalized 40.21 32.92 45.65 48.32 59.92 65.65 71.71 79.08 86.37 94.58 Total interest expense 18.64 26.16 24.08 34.16 41.92 45.76 49.82 54.75 59.64 65.13 Other income (expense), net 1.45 0.43 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 Income (loss) before income taxes -52.16 995.49 1,050.99 817.14 896.77 987.88 1,086.99 1,194.10 1,310.89 1,437.49 Current Income Taxes 0.34 23.88 8.40 8.82 9.26 9.72 10.21 10.72 11.25 11.81 Deferred Income Taxes 97.21 759.44 818.05 842.59 867.87 893.90 920.72 948.34 976.79 1,006.09 Provision (benefit) for income taxes -16.36 391.66 413.22 317.21 348.12 383.50 421.97 463.55 508.89 558.03 Net income (loss) -35.79 603.83 637.77 499.93 548.64 604.39 665.02 730.55 802.00 879.46 Less: net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest 0.14 0.29 - Net income (loss) attributable to Southwestern Energy -35.65 604.12 637.77 499.93 548.64 604.39 665.02 730.55 802.00 879.46 Year end shares outstanding 345.88 347.58 348.96 352.02 352.82 353.07 353.32 353.69 354.22 354.74 Net earnings (loss) per share-basic -0.10 1.75 1.84 1.42 1.56 1.71 1.88 2.07 2.26 2.48 Dividends/Share 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
  15. 15. Southwestern Energy Balance Sheet In Millions Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Cash & cash equivalents 13.18 16.06 15.63 73.37  105.90  150.96  107.09  152.90  179.98  274.93  Accounts receivable 263.08 351.57 341.92 349.80  377.64  407.71  440.19  475.26  513.14  554.06  Inventories 30.01 35.10 46.23 40.40  43.62  47.09  50.84  54.89  59.27  63.99  Hedging asset 163.07 130.41 514.47 514.47 514.47 514.47 514.47 514.47 514.47 514.47 Other current assets 95.16 47.76 60.04 77.80 83.99 90.68 97.90 105.70 114.13 123.23 Total current assets 564.50 580.89 978.28 1055.83 1125.61 1210.90 1210.48 1303.21 1380.99 1530.67 Property, plant & equipment, at cost 7154.02 8980.89 11060.82 12560.82 14060.82 15660.82 17510.82 19410.82 21510.82 23710.82 Less accumulated depreciation & amortization 3026.77 3682.69 4415.34 5066.78 5770.08 6529.38 7349.16 8234.26 9189.91 10221.76 Property, plant & equipment, net 4127.25 5298.20 6645.48 7494.04 8290.74 9131.44 10161.66 11176.56 12320.91 13489.06 Other assets 78.50 138.37 279.14 283.33 287.58 291.89 296.27 300.71 305.22 309.80 Total assets 4770.25 6017.46 7902.90 8833.19 9703.93 10634.23 11668.41 12780.49 14007.12 15329.54 Short term debt 1.20 - - Current portion of long-term debt - 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 Accounts payable 404.70 473.89 514.07 510.28 550.89 594.76 642.13 693.30 748.56 808.25 Taxes payable 25.50 50.05 40.69 31.72 34.81 38.35 42.20 46.36 50.89 55.80 Interest payable 19.78 19.95 20.57 24.08 34.16 41.92 45.76 49.82 54.75 59.64 Advances from partners 52.41 81.71 84.08 75.67 68.11 61.30 55.17 49.65 44.68 40.22 Hedging liability 20.05 7.69 12.46 11.21 10.09 9.08 8.17 7.36 6.62 5.96 Other current liabilities 12.79 15.41 17.68 15.00  15.00  15.00  15.00  15.00  15.00  15.00  Total current liabilities 536.42 693.98 884.91 669.16  714.27  761.61  809.63  862.68  921.71  986.06  Long-term debt 997.50 1093.00 1342.10 1664.37 1823.63 1991.82 2196.65 2399.24 2627.16 2860.38 Deferred Tax Liability 811.90 1174.38 1780.96 1870.01 1963.51 2061.68 2164.77 2273.01 2386.66 2505.99 Long-term hedging liability 3.06 40.19 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Pension & other postretirement liabilities 12.63 15.78 20.34 19.32 18.36 17.44 16.57 15.74 14.95 14.20 Other liabilities 67.76 79.35 99.39 104.36 109.58 115.06 120.81 126.85 133.19 139.85 Total other liabilities 895.35 1265.60 1706.58 1993.74 2091.49 2194.23 2302.20 2415.65 2534.85 2660.10 Total Liabilities 2429.27 3052.59 3933.59 4327.27 4629.39 4947.66 5308.48 5677.57 6083.72 6506.54 Common Equity 836.96 865.90 906.89 943.58 963.56 971.20 979.54 991.98 1010.46 1030.60 Retained earnings 1414.33 2018.45 2656.21 3156.14 3704.78 4309.17 4974.19 5704.74 6506.75 7386.20 Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) 84.28 83.98 408.43 408.43 408.43 408.43 408.43 408.43 408.43 408.43 Common stock in treasury, at cost 4.33 3.44 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 Total Southwestern Energy stockholders' equity* 2331.23 2964.88 3969.30 4505.92 5074.54 5686.57 6359.93 7102.92 7923.40 8823.00 Non-controlling interest 9.76 - - Total Equity 2340.98 2964.88 3969.30 4505.92 5074.54 5686.57 6359.93 7102.92 7923.40 8823.00 Total Liabilities and Equity 4770.25 6017.46 7902.90 8833.19 9703.93 10634.23 11668.41 12780.49 14007.12 15329.53
  16. 16. Southwestern Energy Cash Flow Statement In Millions Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Cash Flow from Operating Activities: Net Income 499.93  548.64  604.39  665.02  730.55  802.00  879.46  Adjustments to Reconcile Net Income to Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization 651.44  703.30  759.30  819.78  885.10  955.65  1031.85  Deferred Income Taxes 89.05  93.50  98.18  103.08  108.24  113.65  119.33  Accounts Recievable (7.88) (27.84) (30.07) (32.48) (35.07) (37.88) (40.92) Inventories 5.83  (3.22) (3.47) (3.75) (4.05) (4.38) (4.73) Other Current Assets (17.76) (6.19) (6.69) (7.22) (7.80) (8.43) (9.10) Accounts Payable (3.79) 40.62 43.87 47.37 51.17 55.26 59.69 Taxes Payable (8.97) 3.09 3.54 3.85 4.16 4.53 4.91 Interest Payable 3.51 10.09 7.75 3.84 4.06 4.94 4.88 Advances from Partners (8.41) (7.57) (6.81) (6.13) (5.52) (4.96) (4.47) Hedging Liability (1.25) (1.12) (1.01) (0.91) (0.82) (0.74) (0.66) Other Current Liabilities (2.68) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities 1199.02 1353.30 1468.97 1592.46 1730.01 1879.65 2040.25 Cash Flow from Investing Activities: Capital Expenditures (1500.00) (1500.00) (1600.00) (1850.00) (1900.00) (2100.00) (2200.00) Other Assets (4.19) (4.25) (4.31) (4.38) (4.44) (4.51) (4.58) Other Liabilities 4.97 5.22 5.48 5.75 6.04 6.34 6.66 Net Cash Provided (Used) by Investing Activities (1499.22) (1499.03) (1598.83) (1848.63) (1898.40) (2098.17) (2197.92) Cash Flow from Financing Activities: Short-Term Debt/Current Portion of Long term Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Long-term Debt 322.27 159.26 168.20 204.83 202.59 227.91 233.22 Change in Capital Stock 36.69 19.97 7.65 8.34 12.44 18.48 20.14 Treasury Stock 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pension and Other Postretirement Liabilities (1.02) (0.97) (0.92) (0.87) (0.83) (0.79) (0.75) Net Cash Provided (Used) by Financing Activities 357.94 178.27 174.93 212.29 214.20 245.60 252.61 Change in Cash 57.74 32.53 45.06 (43.87) 45.81 27.09 94.94 Net Cash, Beginning of Period 15.63 73.37 105.90 150.96 107.09 152.90 179.98 Net Cash, End of Period 73.37 105.90 150.96 107.09 152.90 179.98 274.93
  17. 17. Southwestern Energy Common Size Balance Sheet As Percentage of Revenue Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Cash & cash equivalents 0.61% 0.61% 0.53% 2.61% 3.49% 4.60% 3.03% 4.00% 4.36% 6.17% Accounts receivable 12.26% 13.47% 11.58% 12.44% 12.44% 12.44% 12.44% 12.44% 12.44% 12.44% Inventories 1.40% 1.34% 1.57% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% Hedging asset 7.60% 5.00% 17.42% 18.29% 16.94% 15.69% 14.53% 13.46% 12.47% 11.55% Other current assets 4.43% 1.83% 2.03% 2.77% 2.77% 2.77% 2.77% 2.77% 2.77% 2.77% Total current assets 26.31% 22.25% 33.13% 37.53% 40.02% 43.05% 43.03% 46.33% 49.09% 54.42% Property, plant & equipment, at cost 333.40% 344.01% 374.57% 446.54% 463.01% 477.66% 494.68% 507.89% 521.29% 532.17% Less accumulated depreciation & amortization 141.06% 141.06% 149.53% 180.12% 190.00% 199.15% 207.61% 215.45% 222.70% 229.42% Property, plant & equipment, net 192.34% 202.94% 225.05% 266.41% 273.01% 278.51% 287.07% 292.44% 298.58% 302.75% Other assets 3.66% 5.30% 9.45% 10.07% 9.47% 8.90% 8.37% 7.87% 7.40% 6.95% Total assets 222.31% 230.50% 267.63% 314.02% 319.54% 324.35% 329.63% 334.40% 339.44% 344.06% Short term debt 0.06% ‐ ‐ Current portion of long-term debt ‐ 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% Accounts payable 18.86% 18.15% 17.41% 18.14% 18.14% 18.14% 18.14% 18.14% 18.14% 18.14% Taxes payable 1.19% 1.92% 1.38% 1.13% 1.15% 1.17% 1.19% 1.21% 1.23% 1.25% Interest payable 0.92% 0.76% 0.70% 0.86% 1.13% 1.28% 1.29% 1.30% 1.33% 1.34% Advances from partners 2.44% 3.13% 2.85% 2.69% 2.24% 1.87% 1.56% 1.30% 1.08% 0.90% Hedging liability 0.93% 0.29% 0.42% 0.40% 0.33% 0.28% 0.23% 0.19% 0.16% 0.13% Other current liabilities 0.60% 0.59% 0.60% 0.53% 0.49% 0.46% 0.42% 0.39% 0.36% 0.34% Total current liabilities 25.00% 26.58% 29.97% 23.79% 23.52% 23.23% 22.87% 22.57% 22.34% 22.13% Long-term debt 46.49% 41.87% 45.45% 59.17% 60.05% 60.75% 62.06% 62.78% 63.67% 64.20% Deferred Tax Liability 37.84% 44.98% 60.31% 66.48% 64.66% 62.88% 61.15% 59.47% 57.84% 56.24% Long-term hedging liability 0.14% 1.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Pension & other postretirement liabilities 0.59% 0.60% 0.69% 0.69% 0.60% 0.53% 0.47% 0.41% 0.36% 0.32% Other liabilities 3.16% 3.04% 3.37% 3.71% 3.61% 3.51% 3.41% 3.32% 3.23% 3.14% Total other liabilities 41.73% 48.48% 57.79% 70.88% 68.87% 66.92% 65.04% 63.21% 61.43% 59.70% Total Liabilities 113.21% 116.93% 133.21% 153.83% 164.58% 175.89% 188.72% 201.84% 216.28% 231.31% Common Equity 39.00% 33.17% 30.71% 33.54% 31.73% 29.62% 27.67% 25.96% 24.49% 23.13% Retained earnings 65.91% 77.32% 89.95% 112.20% 121.99% 131.43% 140.52% 149.27% 157.68% 165.78% Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) 3.93% 3.22% 13.83% 14.52% 13.45% 12.46% 11.54% 10.69% 9.90% 9.17% Common stock in treasury, at cost 0.20% 0.13% 0.08% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% Total Southwestern Energy stockholders' Equity 108.64% 113.57% 134.42% 160.34% 167.25% 173.58% 179.79% 185.97% 192.12% 198.12% Non-Controllable Interest 0.45% Total Equity 109.10% 113.57% 134.42% 160.34% 167.25% 173.58% 179.79% 185.97% 192.12% 198.12% Total Liabilities and Equity 222.31% 230.50% 267.63% 314.02% 319.54% 324.35% 329.63% 334.40% 339.44% 344.06%
  18. 18. Southwestern Energy Common Size Income Statement As Percentage of Revenue Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2009 2010 2011 10 year avg. 3 year avg 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Gas sales 73.55% 71.10% 70.45% 71.70% 73.55% 71.10% 70.45% 66.35% 66.23% 66.11% 65.99% Gas marketing 22.77% 23.59% 24.18% 23.52% 22.77% 23.59% 24.18% 27.42% 27.43% 27.44% 27.45% Oil sales 0.32% 0.50% 0.31% 0.38% 0.32% 0.50% 0.31% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% Gas gathering 3.46% 4.71% 5.08% 4.42% 3.46% 4.71% 5.08% 5.86% 5.98% 6.09% 6.20% Other operating revenue ‐0.11% 0.10% ‐0.02% ‐0.01% ‐0.11% 0.10% ‐0.02% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% Total operating revenues 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Gas purchases - midstream services 22.50% 23.41% 24.01% 23.31% 23.31% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% Operating expenses 6.36% 7.35% 8.16% 7.29% 7.29% 14.07% 13.43% 12.81% 12.22% 11.66% 11.12% 10.61% General & administrative expenses 5.71% 5.58% 5.35% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% Depreciation, depletion & amortization 23.01% 22.61% 23.86% 23.16% 23.16% 23.16% 23.16% 23.16% 23.16% 23.16% 23.16% 23.16% Taxes, other than income taxes 1.74% 1.94% 2.22% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% Total operating costs & expenses 101.63% 60.88% 63.60% 75.37% 69.75% 69.10% 68.48% 67.89% 67.33% 66.79% 66.28% Operating income (loss) ‐1.63% 39.12% 36.40% 24.63% 30.25% 30.90% 31.52% 32.11% 32.67% 33.21% 33.72% Interest on debt 2.59% 2.19% 2.22% 2.33% 2.86% 3.29% 3.34% 3.38% 3.45% 3.49% 3.54% Other interest charges 0.15% 0.07% 0.15% 0.12% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% Interest capitalized 1.87% 1.26% 1.55% 1.56% 1.72% 1.97% 2.00% 2.03% 2.07% 2.09% 2.12% Total interest expense 0.87% 1.00% 0.82% 0.90% 1.21% 1.38% 1.40% 1.41% 1.43% 1.45% 1.46% Other income (expense), net 0.07% 0.02% 0.01% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% Income (loss) before income taxes ‐2.43% 38.13% 35.59% 23.76% 29.05% 29.53% 30.13% 30.71% 31.24% 31.77% 32.26% Current Income Taxes 0.02% 0.91% 0.28% 0.40% 0.31% 0.30% 0.30% 0.29% 0.28% 0.27% 0.27% Deferred Income Taxes 4.53% 29.09% 27.70% 20.44% 29.95% 28.58% 27.26% 26.01% 24.81% 23.67% 22.58% Provision (benefit) for income taxes ‐0.76% 15.00% 13.99% 9.41% 11.28% 11.46% 11.70% 11.92% 12.13% 12.33% 12.52% Net income (loss) ‐1.67% 23.13% 21.60% 14.35% 17.77% 18.07% 18.43% 18.79% 19.12% 19.44% 19.74% Less: net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest 0.01% 0.01% ‐ 0.01% Net income (loss) attributable to Southwestern Energy ‐1.66% 23.14% 21.60% 14.36% 17.77% 18.07% 18.43% 18.79% 19.12% 19.44% 19.74%
  19. 19. Southwestern Energy Value Driver Estimation In Millions Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Invested Capital: Normal Cash           13.18           16.06           15.63           73.37         105.90         150.96         107.09          152.90         179.98         274.93  Accounts receivable 263.08        351.57        341.92               349.80         377.64         407.71         440.19          475.26         513.14         554.06  Inventories 30.01          35.10          46.23          40.40          43.62          47.09          50.84          54.89          59.27          63.99          Other current assets 95.16          47.76          60.04          77.80          83.99          90.68          97.90          105.70        114.13        123.23        Total Operating Current Assets        401.43        450.48        463.81        541.36        611.15        696.44        696.01         788.75        866.52     1,016.21  Accounts payable 404.70        473.89        514.07               510.28         550.89         594.76         642.13          693.30         748.56         808.25  Taxes payable 25.50          50.05          40.69          31.72          34.81          38.35          42.20          46.36          50.89          55.80          Advances from partners 52.41          81.71          84.08          75.67          68.11          61.30          55.17          49.65          44.68          40.22          Other current liabilities 12.79          15.41          17.68                   15.00           15.00           15.00           15.00            15.00           15.00           15.00  Total Operating Current Liabilities 495.39        621.06        656.53              632.67        668.81        709.41        754.50         804.30        859.14        919.27  Net Operating Working Capital (93.96)         (170.57)      (192.71)      (91.31)         (57.67)         (12.97)         (58.48)         (15.56)         7.38            96.94          Add: Net PP&E 4,127.25    5,298.20    6,645.48    7,494.04    8,290.74    9,131.44    10,161.66  11,176.56  12,320.91  13,489.06  Add: PV of Operating leases 202.80        228.69        215.53        243.05        268.89        296.16        329.57        362.48        399.60        437.48        Add: Total Other Assets 78.50          138.37        279.14        283.33        287.58        291.89        296.27        300.71        305.22        309.80        Less: Other Liabilities 67.76          79.35          99.39          104.36        109.58        115.06        120.81        126.85        133.19        139.85        Invested Capital 4,246.83    5,415.34    6,848.05    7,824.75    8,679.96    9,591.46    10,608.21  11,697.36  12,899.93  14,193.43  NOPLAT: Total operating revenues 2,145.78    2,610.66    2,952.91    2,812.93    3,036.84    3,278.65    3,539.81    3,821.86    4,126.50    4,455.53    Gas purchases ‐ midstream services 482.84        611.16        709.09               703.23         759.21         819.66         884.95          955.47     1,031.62     1,113.88  Operating expenses 136.54        191.77        240.94               395.83         407.70         419.93         432.53          445.51         458.87         472.64  General & administrative expenses 122.62        145.56        158.04               156.12         168.54         181.97         196.46          212.11         229.02         247.28  Depreciation, depletion & amortization 493.66        590.33        704.51               651.44         703.30         759.30         819.78          885.10         955.65     1,031.85  Taxes, other than income taxes 37.28          50.61          65.52                   55.27           59.67           64.42           69.55            75.09           81.08           87.55  Total Operating Costs     1,272.93     1,589.44     1,878.11  1,961.89    2,098.43    2,245.28    2,403.27    2,573.28    2,756.25    2,953.20    Add:implied interest on lease operations             3.54           12.17           13.72           12.93           14.58           16.13           17.77            19.77           21.75           23.98  EBITA        876.39     1,033.40     1,088.52  863.97        953.00        1,049.50    1,154.30    1,268.35    1,392.00    1,526.31    Adjusted Taxes Provision (benefit) for income taxes (16.36)         391.66        413.22        317.21        348.12        383.50        421.97        463.55        508.89        558.03        Add: Tax Shield on Interest Expense 6.36            10.21          9.35            13.26          16.27          17.76          19.34          21.26          23.15          25.28          Less: Tax Shield on Other income (expense), net 0.49            0.17            0.10            0.10            0.10            0.11            0.11            0.11            0.11            0.11            Add: Tax Shield on Lease Operations 1.21            4.75            5.33            5.02            5.66            6.26            6.90            7.68            8.44            9.31            Add: Impairment of natural gas & oil properties 309.56        Total Adjusted Taxes 300.27        406.45        427.79        335.60        370.16        407.63        448.31        492.59        540.59        592.73        Add: Change in Deferred income taxes 97.21          759.44        818.05        842.59        867.87        893.90        920.72        948.34        976.79        1,006.09    NOPLAT 673.33        1,386.38    1,478.78    1,370.96    1,450.70    1,535.78    1,626.71    1,724.10    1,828.20    1,939.67    ROIC = (NOPLAT/Beginning IC) 17.00% 32.65% 27.31% 20.02% 18.54% 17.69% 16.96% 16.25% 15.63% 15.04%      NOPLAT 673.33 1386.38 1478.78 1370.96 1450.70 1535.78 1626.71 1724.10 1828.20 1939.67      Beginning IC 3716.28 4246.83 5415.34 6848.05 7824.75 8679.96 9591.46 10608.21 11697.36 12899.93 FCF = NOPLAT ‐ ∆IC 237.97 217.87 46.07 394.26 595.49 624.28 609.96 634.95 625.62 646.16      NOPLAT 673.33 1386.38 1478.78 1370.96 1450.70 1535.78 1626.71 1724.10 1828.20 1939.67      Change in IC 530.55 1168.51 1432.71 976.70 855.21 911.50 1016.74 1089.15 1202.57 1293.51 EP = NOPLAT ‐ (WACC * Beginning IC) 300.69 960.55 935.77 684.29 666.10 665.42 664.96 660.40 655.29 646.17      NOPLAT 673.33 1386.38 1478.78 1370.96 1450.70 1535.78 1626.71 1724.10 1828.20 1939.67      Beginning IC 3716.28 4246.83 5415.34 6848.05 7824.75 8679.96 9591.46 10608.21 11697.36 12899.93      WACC 10.03% 10.03% 10.03% 10.03% 10.03% 10.03% 10.03% 10.03% 10.03% 10.03%
  20. 20. Southwestern Energy Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimation Risk‐Free Rate 2.92% Risk Premium 5.92% Beta 1.34 Cost of Equity 10.85% Debt Rating BBB‐ Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 8.62% Tax Rate 38.82% After‐Tax Cost of Debt 5.27% Shares Outstanding 350.35       Current Stock Price 34.71         Market Value of Equity 12,160.76 Short‐Term Debt 1.20           Long‐Term Debt 1,895.55    Value of Debt 1,896.75    PV of Operating Leases 215.53       Market Value of Debt 2,112.28   Market Value of Firm 14,273.04 Weight of Debt 14.80% Weight of Equity 85.20% Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) 10.03%
  21. 21. Southwestern Energy Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Economic Profit (EP) Valuation Models Key Inputs:      CV Growth 3.50%      CV ROIC 15.04%      WACC 10.03%      Cost of Equity 10.85% Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) DCF Model Free Cash Flow 394.26 595.49 624.28 609.96 634.95 625.62 Continuing Value   22,799.71  Discount Factor 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.47 1.61 1.77 PV of FCF Discounted by WACC 358.33 491.89 468.68 416.20 393.77 352.63   12,850.80  Value of Operating Assets 15,332.30   Plus: Hedging Assets 514.47 Less: Debt Short‐Term Debt 1.20 Long‐Term Debt 1,896.75     Value of Debt 1,897.95     Less: Other Claims ESOP 94.04 Underfunded Pension/Postretirement Liabilities 20.51           PV of Operating Leases 215.53 Hedging Liabilities 12.51 Value of Other Claims 342.59 Value of Equity 13,606.23   Shares Outstanding 348.96 Value per Share 38.99           Value per Share (Adjusted for Partial Year) 42.87           Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) EP Model Economic Profit 684.29           666.10         665.42         664.96         660.40         655.29         Continuing Value 9,899.79     Discount Factor 1.10                1.21             1.33             1.47             1.61             1.77             PV of EP Discounted by WACC 621.93           550.23         499.57         453.73         409.55         369.34         5,579.90     PV of EP and Continuing Value 8,484.26     Invested Capital 2011 6,848.05     Value of Operating Assets 15,332.30   Plus: Hedging Assets 514.47         Less: Debt Short‐Term Debt 1.20             Long‐Term Debt 1,896.75     Value of Debt 1,897.95     Less: Other Claims ESOP 94.04           Underfunded Pension/Postretirement Liabilities 20.51           PV of Operating Leases 215.53         Hedging Liabilities 12.51           Value of Other Claims 342.59        Value of Equity 13,606.23   Shares Outstanding 348.96         Value per Share 38.99           Value per Share( Adjusted for Partial Year) 42.87          
  22. 22. Southwestern Energy Dividend Discount Model (DDM) or Fundamental P/E Valuation Model Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) EPS 1.42$      1.56$      1.71$      1.88$       2.07$      2.26$      2.48$         Key Assumptions    CV growth 3.50%    CV ROE 9.97%    Cost of Equity 10.85% Future Cash Flows      P/E Multiple 8.82            EPS(next period) 2.48$              Future Stock Price 21.88$         Dividends Per Share ‐$        ‐$        ‐$        ‐$         ‐$        ‐$             Future Cash Flows ‐$        ‐$        ‐$        ‐$         ‐$        21.88$         Discount Factor 1.11       1.23       1.36       1.51         1.67       1.86            Discounted Cash Flows ‐$        ‐$        ‐$        ‐$         ‐$        11.79$    Intrinsic Value 11.79$   Intrinsic Value (Adjusted for Partial Year) 12.96$  
  23. 23. Southwestern Energy Dividend Discount Model (DDM) or Fundamental P/E Valuation Model EPS EPS Est. Ticker Company Price 2012E 2013E P/E 12 P/E 13 5yr Gr. PEG 12 PEG 13 CHK Chesapeake Energy Corp 17.03     0.48       1.32       35.48     12.90       7.25       4.89       1.78       TLM Talisman Energy Inc. 11.22     0.38       0.54       29.53     20.78       24.70     1.20       0.84       CLR Continental Resources Inc. 68.70     3.25       4.54       21.14     15.13       28.90     0.73       0.52       WMB Williams Companies 32.84     1.16       1.28       28.31     25.66       15.80     1.79       1.62       PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Co. 107.00   3.98       5.46       26.88     19.60       13.50     1.99       1.45       Average 28.27     18.81       2.12       1.24       SWN Southwestern Energy Co  107.00           1.42          1.56  75.34     68.81       5.79       13.01     11.88     Implied Value:    Relative P/E (EPS12) $   40.15     Relative P/E (EPS13) 29.25$      PEG Ratio (EPS12) 17.44$      PEG Ratio (EPS13) 11.20$  
  24. 24. WACC Risk‐Free Rate 42.87     8.83% 9.23% 9.63% 10.03% 10.43% 10.83% 11.23% 42.87     1.42% 1.92% 2.42% 2.92% 3.42% 3.92% 4.42% 2.00% 49.40 45.75 42.50 39.59 36.96 34.58 32.42 4.42% 41.62 41.80 41.98 42.15 42.33 42.51 42.69 2.50% 51.16 47.18 43.67 40.54 37.73 35.21 32.93 4.92% 41.86 42.04 42.22 42.39 42.57 42.75 42.93 3.00% 53.22 48.84 45.01 41.62 38.61 35.92 33.50 5.42% 42.10 42.28 42.45 42.63 42.81 42.99 43.17 CV Growth 3.50% 55.67 50.79 46.57 42.87 39.61 36.72 34.14 MRP 5.92% 42.34 42.51 42.69 42.87 43.05 43.23 43.40 4.00% 58.62 53.11 48.40 44.33 40.78 37.65 34.88 6.42% 42.58 42.75 42.93 43.11 43.29 43.47 43.64 4.50% 62.26 55.93 50.60 46.05 42.13 38.72 35.72 6.92% 42.81 42.99 43.17 43.35 43.53 43.70 43.88 5.00% 66.84 59.41 53.27 48.12 43.74 39.97 36.69 7.42% 43.05 43.23 43.41 43.59 43.76 43.94 44.12 Beta Nat. Gas Price Growth 42.87     1.04 1.14 1.24 1.34 1.44 1.54 1.64 42.87     ‐1.37% 0.63% 2.63% 4.63% 6.63% 8.63% 10.63% 2.00% 39.00 39.20 39.39 39.59 39.78 39.97 40.17 0.00% 34.89 36.59 38.51 40.67 43.11 45.83 48.88 2.50% 39.94 40.14 40.34 40.54 40.73 40.93 41.13 1.00% 35.22 37.03 39.07 41.37 43.95 46.85 50.09 3.00% 41.01 41.21 41.42 41.62 41.82 42.03 42.23 Oil & Gas 2.00% 35.57 37.49 39.66 42.10 44.85 47.92 51.37 CV Growth 3.50% 42.24 42.45 42.66 42.87 43.08 43.29 43.50 Production 3.00% 35.94 37.98 40.28 42.87 45.78 49.05 52.70 4.00% 43.68 43.89 44.11 44.33 44.55 44.77 44.98 Growth 4.00% 36.33 38.49 40.93 43.68 46.77 50.23 54.11 4.50% 45.37 45.60 45.83 46.05 46.28 46.50 46.73 5.00% 36.73 39.02 41.61 44.53 47.80 51.47 55.58 5.00% 47.41 47.64 47.88 48.12 48.35 48.59 48.83 6.00% 37.15 39.58 42.33 45.41 48.89 52.78 57.13 General and Administrative Expense Growth 42.87     2.55% 3.55% 4.55% 5.55% 6.55% 7.55% 8.55% 0.00% 42.32 41.77 41.22 40.67 40.13 39.58 39.03 1.00% 43.08 42.51 41.94 41.37 40.80 40.23 39.66 Oil & Gas 2.00% 43.89 43.29 42.70 42.10 41.51 40.91 40.31 Production 3.00% 44.74 44.11 43.49 42.87 42.25 41.63 41.01 Growth 4.00% 45.62 44.98 44.33 43.68 43.03 42.38 41.73 5.00% 46.56 45.88 45.20 44.53 43.85 43.17 42.49 6.00% 47.54 46.83 46.12 45.41 44.71 44.00 43.29
  25. 25. Southwestern Energy Key Management Ratios Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Liquidity Ratios: Current Ratio (CA/CL) 1.05 0.84 1.11 1.58 1.58 1.59 1.50 1.51 1.50 1.55 Quick Ratio ([Cash+A/R]/CL) 0.52 0.53 0.40 0.63 0.68 0.73 0.68 0.73 0.75 0.84 Operating Cash Flow Ratio (Opterating CF/Total Liabilities) 0.56 0.54 0.44 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 Activity or Asset‐Management Ratios: Asset Turnover (Sales/Total Assets) 0.45 0.43 0.37 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 Inventory Turnover (Sales/Inventory) 16.09 17.41 15.34 17.41 17.41 17.41 17.41 17.41 17.41 17.41 Accounts Receivable Turnover (Sales/Accounts Receivable) 8.16 7.43 8.64 8.04 8.04 8.04 8.04 8.04 8.04 8.04 Financial Leverage Ratios: Debt Ratio (Total Liabilities/Total Assets) 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.42 Times Interest Earned (EBIT/Interest Expense) ‐1.88 39.03 44.64 24.91 22.39 22.58 22.81 22.80 22.98 23.07 Profitability Ratios: Return on Equity (Net Income/Shareholder's Equity) ‐1.52% 20.38% 16.07% 11.09% 10.81% 10.63% 10.46% 10.29% 10.12% 9.97% Return on Assets (Net Income/Total Assets) ‐0.75% 10.04% 8.07% 5.66% 5.65% 5.68% 5.70% 5.72% 5.73% 5.74% Operating Margin (Operating Income/Net Sales) ‐1.63% 39.12% 36.40% 30.25% 30.90% 31.52% 32.11% 32.67% 33.21% 33.72% Payout Policy Ratios: (No Dividends Paid) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
  26. 26. Southwestern Energy  Operating Leases 2011 Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations Operating Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 Leases 2012 69.9 2013 65 2014 57.7 2015 33.5 2016 25.9 Thereafter 16.2 Total Minimum Payments 268.2 Less: Interest 53 PV of Minimum Payments 215.53 Capitalization of Operating Leases Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 8.62% Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 1.0 Lease PV Lease Year Commitment Payment 1 69.9 64.4 2 65 55.1 3 57.7 45.0 4 33.5 24.1 5 25.9 17.1 6 & beyond 16.2 9.9 PV of Minimum Payments 215.53
  27. 27. Effects of ESOP Exercise and Share Repurchases on Common Stock Balance Sheet Account and Number of Shares Outstanding Number of Options Outstanding (shares): 4,741,732 Average Time to Maturity (years): 3.48 Expected Annual Number of Options Exercised: 1,363,208 Current Average Strike Price: 21.24$ Cost of Equity: 9.00% Current Stock Price: 34.71$ 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E(CV) Increase in Shares Outstanding: 1,727,398 862,650 303,067 303,067 414,846 565,353 565,353 Average Strike Price: 21.24$ 23.15$ 25.24$ 27.51$ 29.98$ 32.68$ 35.62$ Increase in Common Stock Account: 36,692,266 19,972,997 7,648,443 8,336,803 12,438,701 18,477,105 20,140,045 Change in Treasury Stock 2,228,000 2,228,000 2,228,000 2,228,000 2,228,000 2,228,000 2,228,000 Expected Price of Repurchased Shares: 34.71$ 37.83$ 41.24$ 44.95$ 49.00$ 53.41$ 58.21$ Number of Shares Repurchased: 64,189 58,889 54,027 49,566 45,473 41,718 38,274 Shares Outstanding (beginning of the year) 350,353,300 352,016,509 352,820,270 353,069,310 353,322,811 353,692,184 354,215,818 Plus: Shares Issued Through ESOP 1,727,398 862,650 303,067 303,067 414,846 565,353 565,353 Less: Shares Repurchased in Treasury 64,189 58,889 54,027 49,566 45,473 41,718 38,274 Shares Outstanding (end of the year) 352,016,509 352,820,270 353,069,310 353,322,811 353,692,184 354,215,818 354,742,896
  28. 28. VALUATION OF OPTIONS GRANTED IN ESOP Ticker Symbol SWN Current Stock Price 34.71         Risk Free Rate 0.90% Current Dividend Yield 0.00% Annualized St. Dev. of Stock Returns 36.44% Average Average B‐S Value Range of Number Exercise Remaining Option of Options Outstanding Options of Shares Price Life (yrs) Price Granted Range 1 1,727,398 2.10 1.50 32.64$        56,379,091$    Range 2 862,650 22.19 2.10 14.41$        12,428,577$    Range 3 606,133 31.54 4.40 12.02$        7,284,763$       Range 4 1,130,705 36.77 6.50 12.42$        14,048,750$    Range 5 414,846 41.60 5.00 9.40$          3,900,562$       Total 4,741,732 21.24$        3.48 16.35$        94,041,742$   

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