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Polysilicon Market Update_150331_Goran Bye-Bruno Ceccaroli
- 2. About this presentation
2
• The purpose of this presentation is to provide selected updates on the global market for
polycrystalline silicon as industry data for 2013 and 2014 has become available.
• The updates should be seen in conjunction with the article:
Solar grade silicon: Technology status and industrial trends
by Gøran Bye and Bruno Ceccaroli,
Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells 130 (2014) 634–646
(http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solmat.2014.06.019)
• In the original article, the authors indicate that...
…the polysilicon industry will continue to grow with the photovoltaic industry provided that cost and price
reductions in PV and polysilicon can continue, which the authors believe to be the case
…it is difficult to argue for a long term polysilicon price above US$20/Kg, and they believe future price will be
set top‐down by the market and not as a function of supply (as in the past)
…the polysilicon supply side will consolidate (back) to a limited number of larger players as these can exploit
economics of scale from de‐bottlenecking and incrementally expand existing capacity
…China will be the most important market for, and potentially producer of, polysilicon
…there will be a need for significant new capacity, potentially already from 2017, to serve the future growth of
PV and to replace non‐sustainable existing capacity
…the only apparent challenger for TCS/Siemens as dominant technology seems to be Silane/FBR – especially
for greenfield developments, upgraded MGS may display even better economics, but is generally unavailable
Gøran Bye | ©AMMS | Polysilicon Market Update | 31 March 2015
- 3. About the authors
3
• Advanced Materials Management Solutions LLC (AMMS) was established in 2009, to leverage the accumulated knowledge of a number of
professionals from the photovoltaic, silicon materials and other advanced materials industries. AMMS delivers a wide spectrum of services ranging from
strategic advice to operational involvement. AMMS engages with both companies and investors in renewable energy, photovoltaic, silicon materials and
associated industries.
• The company's principal is Mr. Gøran Bye, who has many years of active participation in the target industries. Associated with the firm are a number of
other professionals with deep and wide experience.
• AMMS' particular strength is the combination of width and depth of knowledge and experience. Having been for years, and indeed continuing to be,
integral and active parts of the industry, AMMS' resources have amassed a valuable insight that stretches from the strategic, via technology and down to
the details of how to set up operations to squeeze the most return out of the considerable production assets that go into polysilicon and related materials
and products.
• The professionals under the AMMS‐umbrella have a wide net of contacts and relationships in both the photovoltaic‐industry in general and the polysilicon‐
industry in particular, and amongst the analysts and investors following it. And they do enjoy a certain respect and trust based on achievements in the past
and soundness of previous decisions made.
• Since its inception, AMMS has provided services to many investors and businesses in the target industries.
Gøran Bye | ©AMMS | Polysilicon Market Update | 31 March 2015
• Dr. Bruno Ceccaroli incorporated MARCHE AS as a Norwegian based, private investment holding company. Through MARCHE Ceccaroli has contributed
to the foundation and the development of several high‐tech startup companies within material technology i.e. n‐TEC AS (carbon nanotubes), Isosilicon AS
(silicon and other light stable isotopes), Polysilan AS (specialty silicon gases) and Combined Properties Materials AS (silicon‐carbon composite materials).
MARCHE is constantly evaluating new investment cases. A selection requirement is our ability to contribute to the case with technology and competency.
• In 2007 MARCHE extended its activities to provide industry and technology advices.
• Business and technical areas: Metallurgical grade silicon, polysilicon, solar grade silicon, solar cells, solar energy value chain, advanced materials
• Activities: Support companies to develop technology and business strategy, to select technology, take active part in advisory boards, manage R&D
projects, execute due diligence studies.
• Clients: More than 30 worldwide clients during the past 7 years including large industrial companies, investments funds, startup companies, board
of executives.
• MARCHE’s principal is Dr. Bruno Ceccaroli, docteur‐ès‐sciences in nuclear chemistry; has international business/industrial experience in at least three
regions: France, Norway and North America including more than 25 years in the silicon and solar industry; has written several popular articles and chapters
in handbooks on solar grade silicon industry.
- 6. Cost reductions continue along the established trend;
PV is steadily becoming more competitive;
continued growth is dependent on continued price reductions
6
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
ModulePriceinUS$/Wp
Cumulative PV Module Production in MWp
PV Experience Curve
Module Price vs. Cumulative Product
Trendline 1975-2004
1980, 20 MWp,
US$ 12.40/Wp
Start of feed-in
tariff in
Germany
1990, 274 MWp,
US$ 6.45/Wp
2000, 1,452MWp,
US$ 3.50/Wp
2008, 15,773 MWp,
US$ 3.75/Wp
1975, 2 MWp,
US$ 47.80/Wp
2012, 98,000 MWp,
US$ 0.79/Wp
Sources of analysis/chart: PrincetonTechResearch/Paul T. Leming; and AMMS
Sources of data: ARISE Technologies Corporation, PVNews, Solarbuzz, PTL estimate
2014, 172,000 MWp,
US$ 0.63/Wp
• PV growth is driven by
attractive economics
to system owners as
prices are reduced
• 2008‐14 price
development is
dramatic, but in fact
brought module ASPs
back to the experience
trend
Gøran Bye | ©AMMS | Polysilicon Market Update | 31 March 2015
- 9. China’s growing prominence in polysilicon, 2014:
Chinese firms consumed ~90% and produced ~50% of global
volumes to PV; prices vacillate around US$ 20/Kg as predicted
9
• In 2013, China introduced tariffs on polysilicon imports. Wacker( GER): 0%, OCI (KOR): 2.4%, REC Silicon, Hemlock Semiconductor &
SunEdison (all USA): 57%. At first glance, the reported import prices seem to reflect the differences in tariff levels for the exporters.
• However, one could speculate that the tariffs to date in practice have had no significant effect on import prices, because:
1. the general price dip in late 2012 and 2013 is the result of the price pressures on PV and excess supply in the market.
2. around 75% of the 2013‐14 imports exploited the tariff loophole of Export Production Zones (EPZ) to avoid tariffs – e.g. none
of REC’s volumes into China in 2014 suffered the punitive levies.
3. REC heavily discounted FBR‐material in 2012‐14, FBR was a significant share (60%–72%) of the volumes from the USA.
• China announced the intention to close the EPZ‐loophole from Sept. 2014, with some transition time for existing supply agreements.
By Nov. more than 70% of imports had been made through EPZs. In Dec. the EPZ‐share fell to ~55% (Jan. 2015: ~65%).
• It is difficult to predict how this will develop, but REC has announced a change in sales strategy to shift volumes from China to other
geographies – indicating that even so ~20% of their 2015 polysilicon sales will be subject to Chinese tariffs.
Gøran Bye | ©AMMS | Polysilicon Market Update | 31 March 2015