This document outlines two possible scenarios for the future of open education. The first scenario is the "Fall of the Silos" where content, teaching, access, and sources become increasingly open through a rise in sharing and the gig economy. This could increase access to information but also lead to issues like industry collapse and less privacy. The second scenario is "Closed and Proprietary Wins" where content and teaching remain closed through social changes that treat users as consumers rather than owners. This could improve content quality but also lead to higher costs and a steepening class divide. The document discusses impacts each scenario could have on technology challenges and the role of students and faculty on college campuses.

1. Possible futures of
open education
Two scenarios for the University of Mary Washington’s OER Summit
-
May 2016

2. • Monthly
environmental
scan report
• Trends identified,
tested, projected
Open as part of a trends mapOpen as part of a trends map

3. 1: Education and its contexts
Changes in international education - macroeconomic
indicators - adjunctification - enrollment changes -
alternative certification - possible intergenerational
tension - demographics.
Racial inequality in/and education; campuses and sexual
assault controversy; athletic budgets doing well; K-12
and higher education; library changes; alternative
degrees; shared academic services; remedial classes;
challenges to internships; campuses and sustainability;
executive compensation controversy.
3

4. 2: Technology
3d printing continues to innovate and grow - digitization
shifts from physical media to streaming - device ecosystem
keeps growing - social media - open source -
shopping continues to migrate online - copyright battles
continue - automation’s promise.
Augmented reality’s steady march; Ebooks; digital security
threats expanding; the limits of the Web; cloud computing;
a shift in Moore’s Law? crowdfunding growing; onshoring
hardware production; Office versus Web office; digital
video rising; new interfaces; fragmented internet; Internet
of things; new forms of creativity.
4

5. 3: Education and technology3: Education and technology
The LMS world - more MOOCs and online learning -
social media in education - rise of the net.generation -
educational entrepreneurship - open education possibilities
- digital humanities develops.
Mobile devices in education; gaming in education; big data
and data analytics; badges; flipped classroom/blended
learning; automation in education; campus digital security
threats growing; video and education; crowdfunding in
academia; Virtual reality in education; Ebooks in higher
education; shared academics; 3d printing across the
curriculum; crowdsourcing in academia; faculty criticizing
deployment of technology; maker movement. 5

6. Trends assessed and trackedTrends assessed and tracked
longitudinallylongitudinally

7. 1. Fall of the Silos
(Previous photo: https://www.flickr.com/photos/cogdog/5645508446/
)

8. Open…
• Content
• Teaching
• Access
• Source

9. Social changes
• Rise of the sharing
mindset
• Gig economy: rapid
switching, less
employee loyalty

10. Good things
• Global conversations increase,
filter bubble pops
• More access, more information
• Lots of creativity
• AIs grow based on open content
• Content crosses class divides

11. Not so good things
• Industries collapse
• Authorship mysterious
• Some low quality tech
(videoconf.)
• Hard to solve macro
scholarly problems

12. Good things on campus
• Information prices drop
• Faculty creativity,
flexibility grow
• IT “ “ “
• Academic content
unleashed on the world

13. Not so good things
• Some higher costs
• More malware + less
privacy
• Increased fallibility of
scholarship

14. How does this impact campuses?
• Tech challenges
• Outsourcing and offshoring
• PLE beats LMS
• Crowdsourcing faculty work

15. How does this impact campuses?
• Crowdsourcing faculty work
• Information literacy central
• Students as cocreators and
creators

16. • Internet has always been
open
• Web <> money
• Online identity has always
been fictional, playful

17. 2. Closed and proprietary wins
https://www.flickr.com/photos/quinnanya/3334056228/

18. Closed and proprietary…
• Content
• Teaching
• Access
• Source

19. Social changes
• Users as accessors,
not owners
• Living with a
permanent record

20. Good things
• High quality content + software
• Authorship durable
• Low amounts of cybercrime
• “ “ “ abuse
• AI projects partner with
content providers

21. Good things on campus
• Guaranteed information quality
• Faculty and staff develop long-
term habits and skills
• Scholarly record durable (ORCID)
• Major movements to improve
scholarship, solve science
problems

22. Not so good things
• Prices are high
• Remixing is rare
• Class divide steep
• N-S “ “

23. How else does this impact campuses?
• LMSes anchor campus tech
• People attached to providers
• Libraries are licensors
• Students as consumers on
campus
• Institutional divide widens

24. • Identify with commercial
providers
• Stable, long-term digital
identity
• See the digital world as a
mall

25. http://bryanalexander.orghttp://bryanalexander.org
bryan.alexander@gmail.combryan.alexander@gmail.com
http://twitter.com/bryanalexanderhttp://twitter.com/bryanalexander