My keynote address to the 2014 NERCOMP conference. The first half surveyed trends in technology and education, while the second presented several scenarios.

1. Glimpsing
the Future
of
Education
and
Technology
-
NERCOMP
2014

2. Plan:
1. Current
and
developing
trends
2. Several
possible
futures

3. Collaboration
Social media
Futures thinking
Being open
Attention to generations

4. After the Web’s first
generation:
Campus Web
presence
The LMS
The ERP
Library-IT ententes
Desktops to BYOD

7. Monthly
environmental
scan report
Trends
identified, teste
d, projected

10. More international
students heading to the
US
Non-US higher ed
systems building up

11. Northeast, midwest youth
population vs debt
Alternative certification
(competency, badges)
US job changes (manufact-
>service, 1->many, declining
participation, automation)

13. Adjunctification rising

15. shared academic services
executive compensation rising
amid controversy
challenges to internships
possible intergenerational
tensions
library budgets

16. digital
video
cloud wars
augmented
reality
automation
and artificial
intelligence

18. social media triumphing

21. crowdfunding growing
copyright battles
continue
durability of Moore’s Law
office versus Web office

23. "When we were an agrarian
nation, all cars were trucks
because that's what you needed
on the farms." Cars became more
popular as cities rose, and things
like power steering and
automatic transmission became
popular…

24. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They
are still going to be around." However, he
said, only "one out of x people will need them."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia

25. Design for mobile *first *

27. PCs getting
crowded out
Mouse and
keyboard
declining
3d printing
mainstreaming
3d tv dying

28. the limits of the Web
onshoring hardware
production

29. Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/

31. blended/flipped
classroom
rise of the net.generation
gaming in education

32. educational
entrepreneurship
big data and data analytics
develop
campus digital security
threats growing

33. Uses of social
media
Uses of Web
video
Changes in the
LMS world
Blended
learning
Learning
analytics
Changes in
library role
Digital
humanities (in
classroom)
The rise of the
Maker
movement

35. Credit for MOOCs
STEM vs humanities
Sustainability?
xMOOC vs cMOOC
Liberal arts campuses
entering

37. Open content
Possible divide growing
between research and teaching
Changes to the scholarly
publication ecosystem
Rise of the digital humanities
(as scholarly work)
The library role

38. Continued cost/value crisis
Student and parent anxieties
about debt and employment
Grad school crises
Bipartisan political pressure

39. College premium persists
Debt closer to car
ownership
Endowments
returning, maybe (11%+

40. Assemble
experts
Probe for
opinions
Rank and
distill ideas
Reiterate

41. Selected trends:
Ubiquitous social
media
Integration of online +
offline teaching

42. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
One Year or Less
Flipped Classroom
Learning Analytics

43. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
Two to Three Years
3D Printing
Games and Gamification

44. Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: Four to Five Years
Quantified Self
Virtual Assistants

45. Stories about futures
 Event and response
 Creativity
 Roles and times
 Emergent practices and
patterns

46. 1. Fall of the Silos
2. Phantom University
3. The Renaissance
4. The Old Guard’s
Revenge

48. Content
Teaching
Access
Source

49. Global conversations
increase, filter bubble pops
More access, more
information
Lots of creativity

50. Information prices drop
Faculty creativity, flexibility
grow
IT “ “ “
Academic content
unleashed on the world

51. Industries collapse
Authorship mysterious
Some low quality tech
(videoconf.)
Some higher costs
More malware + less privacy

52. Tech challenges
Outsourcing and offshoring
PLE beats LMS
Crowdsourcing faculty work
Information literacy central

53. Internet has always been
open
Web <> money
Online identity has always
been fictional, playful

54. Post-tsunami
Schools are rare
and distant
Information is
plentiful and
nearby

55. http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf

56. Information on demand
Instructors, peers “ “
Grading outsourced
Multimedia:
social, personalized

57. Institutions
Function: content
supplements
Faculty: adjunct rōnin
Accreditation:
online, multiple, display-

58. Institutions
Library: media
production camp
Professional
development: via social
media

61. No good categorical name:
…which sometimes
indicates the future

62. Students spent more time in K-12
with online classes than face-to-
face ones
K-12 as social center, working
parent support spaces
Libraries are software
Buildings without AR look naked

68. Gaming
world

69. Classroom and courses
 Curriculum content
 Delivery mechanism
 Creating games
Peacemaker, Impa
ct Games
Revolution (via
Jason Mittell)

70. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey
Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game
Studies (MIT, 2005)
•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies
(Sage, 2008)
•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third
Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives
(MIT, 2009)

72. Changes in
hardware, software
Part of undergraduate life
Learning content, both
informal and formal
Career paths

73. Higher education landscape:
Accreditation: drives project-
based, studio-style pedagogy
Libraries: gaming
production, archiving
Professional development:
distance, DiY
Faculty multimedia production is the
norm

74. Most students identified with
one+ game characters in K-12
Leading game developers are as
well known as movie directors
Most of their work and school
is gamified

76.  Economic growth returns to US
(energy, medical, nanotech vs world)
 17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12
failure)
 Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA
strike)
 Digital tech firewalled from class
(i.e., tv + film)

77. Higher education landscape:
Supplemental rather than
transformative tech
Logistical instead of pedagogical
tech
Academics include tech in old
structures (classes, publication)
Reconfigured to protect IP

78. 18-year-olds were .ppt
proficient by 5th grade
Schools <> digital life
They find their parents’
recollections of life before
the web are oddly charming

79. 1. Fall of the Silos
2. Phantom University
3. The Renaissance
4. The Old Guard’s
Revenge

80. Collaboration
Social media
Futures thinking
Being open
Attention to generations

81. The blog
http://bryanalexander.org
On the Twitters
http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander
The email
bryan.alexander@gmail.com