Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) program enhances and uses a coordinated suite of biophysical and socioeconomic models to assess potential returns to investments in new agricultural technologies and policies. These models include IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), hydrology and water supply-demand models, and the DSSAT suite of process-based crop models. The program also provides tools and trainings to scientists and policy makers to undertake similar assessments. GFSF program is a Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) program led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI

1. IPCC AR4 to AR5

2. Terminology
• Unchanged
– GCMs – General Circulation Models
• AR4
– SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
• AR5
– SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
– RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways
– RAPs – Representative Agricultural Pathways

3. How are these terms related?
•SSP
•RCP
SRES (A1B,
B1, etc.)
•RAPsIPRs from
IMPACT

4. • RCP 2.6 is below anything from
AR4
• RCP 6 is most similar to A1B
• RCP 8.5 is higher than anything
AR4
RCPs

5. RCP – Trends

6. RCP Details
Description IA Model Publication – IA Model
RCP8.5 Rising radiative forcing
pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2
in 2100.
MESSAGE Riahi et al. (2007)
Rao & Riahi (2006)
RCP6 Stabilization without
overshoot pathway to 6
W/m2 at stabilization after
2100
AIM Fujino et al. (2006)
Hijioka et al. (2008)
RCP4.5 Stabilization without
overshoot pathway to 4.5
W/m2 at stabilization after
2100
GCAM (MiniCAM) Smith and Wigley (2006)
Clarke et al. (2007)
Wise et al. (2009)
RCP2.6 Peak in radiative forcing at ~
3 W/m2 before 2100 and
decline
IMAGE van Vuuren et al. (2006;
2007)

7. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - GFDL

8. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - HadGem

9. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - IPSL

10. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - MIROC

11. • SSP1 – Low Challenges
• SSP2 – Intermediate
Challenges, business as
usual (med-med)
• SSP3 – High Challenges
• SSP4 – Adaptation
Challenges Dominates
• SSP5 – Mitigation Challenges
Dominates
SSPs

12. • SSPs are separated from
emissions, but not all SSPs
are compatible with all RCPs
Combining SSPs with RCPs