GSFS_XTM_May2015

1. IMPACT 3.2 – Improvements and
Updates
Daniel Mason-D’Croz

2. IMPACT 3 Review
• Disaggregated agricultural commodities (56 commodities)
• Disaggregated spatial allocation of crop production at sub-national
level (159 countries, 154 watersheds, and 320 food production units)
• Details on physical use of land and water, trade policies, with
resulting trade
• World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear
international commodity markets
• Iterative year-by-year demand and supply equilibration
• Output indicators – calorie availability, malnutrition measures, share
at risk of hunger, water consumption, yield growth and total
production, area

3. IMPACT 3 Review
• Food production is driven by both economic and environmental
factors and has both extensive and intensive components (area x
yield)
• On the production side the model also accounts for the presence of
irrigation and for exogenous technological change
• Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and
population
• Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed prices, and
feeding efficiency
• Other demand changes proportionally to food and feed demand
• Biofuel demand an exogenous calculation of demand for feedstock
from different commodities (sugar, oils, maize, other) to meet a
share of mandates in major countries

4. IMPACT Spatial Resolution
4
159
• Countries
154
• Water Basins
320
• Food
Production
Units

5. Data Sources
IMPACT Parameter Data Source
2005 World Prices (USD/mt) OECD-AMAD
Population (million)
GDP (billion USD, PPP)
WDI and
CIA World Factbook
Total Supply (000 mt)
- Animals (000 animals), Harvest Area
(000 ha) and Yield (mt/ha or animal)
Total Demand (000 mt)
- Food, Feed, Intermediate, and Other
Trade and stock changes (000 mt)
FAOSTAT Commodity Balances
Calorie Availability FAOSTAT Food Supply
Total national irrigated area FAO AquaStatand OECD
By production system at pixel level (irr/rfd)
- Harvest Area, Yield, Production
IFPRI SPAM
Demand Elasticities (Price and Income) USDA and expert opinion
Supply Elasticities Expert opinion
Marketing Margins OECD and expert opinion
PSE and CSEs OECD and expert opinion
Tariffs and Taxes GTAP
Exogenous Yield Growth Rates (IPRs) Historical trends and expert opinion
Population and GDP Growth Rates SSP Database
Climate Shocks Simulated in DSSAT for 7 crops with 4 GCMS and RCP 8.5

6. • FAO Bulk Download for 3-year
average around 2005 (04-06)
• Harmonized SPAM/IMPACT
commodity, and geographic
definitions
• Bayesian Work Plan
– Iterate with new information
6
Processing FAO Data
Source Data
(FAO, SPAM)
Feedback to
data source
Priors on values and
estimation errors of
production, demand,
and trade
Estimation by Cross-
Entropy Method
Check results against
priors and identify
potential data problems
New information to
correct identified
problems

7. IMPACT System of Models

8. Water
Models
GCM
RCP
Crop
Models
Historical Trends and Expert Opinion
Exogenous
Endogenous
Exogenous + Endogenous Yield Effects

9. No Immediate DSSAT Proxy for the IMPACT Crop
Biophysically Similar Crops
Mapping DSSAT Results to IMPACT
DSSAT • Maize
• Wheat
• Rice
• Sorghum
• Soybeans
• Groundnuts
• Potatoes
IMPACT
• Barley
• Other Cereals
Wheat
• Sugarcane
Maize
• Millet
Sorghum
• Pulses (chickpeas, pigeon
peas, beans, cowpeas)
Groundnuts
1 to 1 Mapping
• Roots and Tubers
• Fruits and Vegetables
• Oilseed Crops
• All other crops (incl stimulants, sugar beets, and
cotton)
Average of C3 Crops
(all DSSAT crops excl.
maize)

10. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications
• IMPACT 3.0 in use through December 2014
– New base 2005 database
– Crop and region disaggregation
– Crop allocation
– New Pricing structure
– Recoded and based on modular design
– Data Management system
– Implementation of Activity-commodity framework

11. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications
• IMPACT 3.0 publications
– Andersen et al (2014) “Agriculture, incomes,
and gender in Latin America by 2050”
– Ignaciuk and Mason-D'Croz (2014) “Modelling
Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture”
– Wiebe et al (submitted to ERL) “Climate Change
Impacts on Agriculture in 2050 under a Range of Plausible
Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios”
– Stuch et al (submitted) “Tradeoffs between Food Security, Species
Richness, and Nitrogen Depletion”
– van Soesbergen et al (submitted to REC) “Impacts of future
agricultural development on biodiversity at regional scales a spatially
explicit assessment of trade-offs in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi”

12. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications
• IMPACT 3.1 through March 2015
– Recalibration of food demand
– Update of irrigated area trends
– Update and of malnutrition module
– Update and calibration of welfare module

13. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications
• IMPACT 3.1 publications
– Robinson et al (2014) “New Crop varieties and
climate change adaptation” (DP, upcoming GFS)
– Rosegrant et al (2015) “Returns to investment
in reducing Postharvest food losses and
increasing Ag productivity growth”
– Ignaciuk et al. (accepted at EuroChoices) Better Drip than Flood
Reaping the Benefits of Efficient Irrigation
– OECD (2015) Long-Term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture
– Springmann et al (submitted to Lancet) The global and regional
health impacts of future food production under climate change

14. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications
• IMPACT 3.2
– Review and update of base data and IPRs
– Recalibration of IMPACT baseline projections
– Update of share at risk of hunger module
– Implementation of endogenous land supply
– Further calibration of biofuels demand
– Increased substitution effects throughout
– Improved climate change processing to better map available crops to
un-modelled crops
– Update of PSEs, and CSEs, and inclusion of tariffs and taxes
– Water model calibration and updates
– Water data management modularized

15. IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications
• IMPACT 3.2 publications in the pipeline
– Mason-D’Croz et al (upcoming EMS)
– Sulser (upcoming) ReSAKSS Book Chapter Africa
– CCAFS Regional Scenario Working Reports and
Articles
– CSISA South Asia Report extending Food
Security in a World of Resource Scarcity to IMPACT 3
– Latin America Climate Change Monograph
– Philippines Work
– Water Book

16. IMPACT 3 next steps
• IMPACT 3.3
– Update to livestock module
– Better linkages to land-use modeling
– Incorporation of IPR feedback
– Soft linking to fish module
– Linking to GLOBE CGE model

17. Questions