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IMPACT v3.2 Projections
A selection of scenario results based on the IPCC’s 5th Assessment report
Daniel Mason-D’Croz
IFPRI
The IMPACT system of models
• Complete recoding of IMPACT
• Disaggregation geographically
and by commodity
• Improved wate...
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:
biophysical and economic effects
General circu...
Socioeconomic and climate drivers
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Source...
IMPACT model results
• Yields – sources of growth, climate effects by commodity and region
• Prices – comparing socioecono...
Changing diets, by region (SSP2,
kcal/person/day)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030...
Decomposition of global supply growth
of animal products (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Decomposition of changing demand
for cereals and oilmeals (SSP2, NoCC)
Cereals Oilmeals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2,...
Decomposition of global supply growth
in cereal and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Climate impacts on yield effect, by
region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Roots & tubers
WLD = Wo...
Comparing maize and wheat climate
yield impacts, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
WLD = W...
Price effects of socioeconomic
and climate drivers
Cereals Fruits & vegetables Meat
RCPsSSPs
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version...
Net trade in Cereals (mmt, SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America...
Net trade in select cereals(mmt,
SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin A...
Comparing trade in vegetable oils
and oil meals (mmt, NoCC)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet...
Prevalence of hunger in 2050, by
region
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS ...
Total number of climate-related
deaths in 2050 by risk factor and
region (SSP2 RCP 8.5)
Source: Springmann et al (2015)
HI...
Thank you
d.mason-dcroz@cigar.org
For more information:
http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model
http://globalfutures.cig...
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Mason d'croz (dec 2015) inai - impact3, a selection of projections from ipcc scenario

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Presentation for the second annual International Conference on Agro-Industrial Projections hosted by INAI (www.inai.org.ar, www.inai.org.ar/notas.asp?id=193) in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

https://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2015/12/20/to-latin-america-for-global-connections

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Mason d'croz (dec 2015) inai - impact3, a selection of projections from ipcc scenario

  1. 1. IMPACT v3.2 Projections A selection of scenario results based on the IPCC’s 5th Assessment report Daniel Mason-D’Croz IFPRI
  2. 2. The IMPACT system of models • Complete recoding of IMPACT • Disaggregation geographically and by commodity • Improved water & crop models • New data management system • Modular framework
  3. 3. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014) Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: biophysical and economic effects General circulation models (GCMs) Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) Global economic modelsΔ Temp Δ Precip … Δ Yield (biophys) Δ Area Δ Yield Δ Cons. Δ Trade Climate Biophysical Economic Source: HadGem RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI DSSAT Maize simulation
  4. 4. Socioeconomic and climate drivers Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007. CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing (W/m2) Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)
  5. 5. IMPACT model results • Yields – sources of growth, climate effects by commodity and region • Prices – comparing socioeconomic and climate effects • Total demand – comparing commodities • Per-capita food demand – by commodity and region • Composition of demand – by commodity and region • Net trade – by commodity and region • Food security – by region
  6. 6. Changing diets, by region (SSP2, kcal/person/day) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 WLD EAP EUR FSU LAC MEN NAM SAS SSA Total Animal Products Cereals Fruits & Vegetables Oils & Sugar
  7. 7. Decomposition of global supply growth of animal products (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  8. 8. Decomposition of changing demand for cereals and oilmeals (SSP2, NoCC) Cereals Oilmeals Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  9. 9. Decomposition of global supply growth in cereal and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  10. 10. Climate impacts on yield effect, by region (SSP2) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015 Roots & tubers WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; Cereals Fruits & Vegetables Oilseeds Pulses Sugar
  11. 11. Comparing maize and wheat climate yield impacts, by region (SSP2) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015 WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; Cereals Maize Wheat
  12. 12. Price effects of socioeconomic and climate drivers Cereals Fruits & vegetables Meat RCPsSSPs Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  13. 13. Net trade in Cereals (mmt, SSP2) EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  14. 14. Net trade in select cereals(mmt, SSP2) EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015 Rice Wheat Maize
  15. 15. Comparing trade in vegetable oils and oil meals (mmt, NoCC) EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  16. 16. Prevalence of hunger in 2050, by region Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015 EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
  17. 17. Total number of climate-related deaths in 2050 by risk factor and region (SSP2 RCP 8.5) Source: Springmann et al (2015) HIC = High Income Country; AFR = Africa; AMR = Americas; EMR = Eastern Mediterranean; EUR = Europe; SEA = South-East Asia; WPR = Western Pacific
  18. 18. Thank you d.mason-dcroz@cigar.org For more information: http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model http://globalfutures.cigar.org http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129825

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