- The document summarizes the work of the AgMIP Global Economics Team, which includes researchers from various organizations modeling the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. - Phase 1 results were published in 2014 examining climate impacts on crop yields and commodity markets under different scenarios. - Phase 2a is examining baseline scenarios for agricultural production, consumption, trade and prices from 2005-2050 under different Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). - Future work will analyze additional combinations of SSPs and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to project climate change impacts on agriculture and commodity markets.

1. Global Economics Team Update
Keith Wiebe, IFPRI
World Outlook Conference
USDA Economic Research Service, Washington DC
9 June 2015

2. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

3. AgMIP Global Economics Team
• ABARES
• CIRED
• EuroCARE
• FAO
• IDS
• IFPRI (Wiebe)
• IIASA
• IPTS-JRC (Perez)
• LEI-WUR (van Meijl)
• MIT
• NCAR
• NIES
• OECD (von Lampe)
• PBL
• PIK (Lotze-Campen)
• PNNL
• Purdue (van der Mensbrugghe)
• USDA-ERS

4. AgMIP Global Economics
Phase 1 results
(published in PNAS and a special issue of Agricultural Economics, 2014)
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

5. Scenario SSP Climate GCM Trade policy Economic model Crop model
1.0 SSP 1 No change none No change ENVISAGE, FARM, IMPACT,
MAGNET, MAgPIE
LPJmL
1.1 RCP 4.5 HadGEM
1.2 IPSL
1.3 MIROC
1.4 HadGEM Liberalized ENV, FAR, MGN, MGP
2.0 SSP 2 No change none No change ENVISAGE, FARM, IMPACT,
MAGNET, MAgPIE
LPJmL
2.1 RCP 6.0 HadGEM
2.2 IPSL
2.3 MIROC
3.0 SSP 3 No change none No change ENVISAGE, FARM, IMPACT,
MAGNET, MAgPIE
LPJmL
3.1 RCP 8.5 HadGEM
3.2 IPSL
3.3 MIROC
3.4 HadGEM Restricted ENV, FAR, MGN, MGP
AgMIP Global Economics
Phase 2a “USDA scenarios”

6. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Population, GDP and agricultural productivity assumptions by SSP (annual
percentage change, 2010 – 2050)
Source: IIASA, OECD, work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

7. Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3
Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices
of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values)
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

8. Climate change impacts in 2050
Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices
of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values)
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

9. SSP x RCP combinations
Analyzed so far
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
RCP8.5 Phase 1 USDA 3.1-3.4
RCP6.0 USDA 2.1-2.3
RCP4.5 USDA 1.1-1.4
RCP2.6
NoCC USDA 1.0 Phase 1
USDA 2.0
USDA 3.0

10. SSP x RCP combinations
Planning for future work
Climate Focus SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
RCP8.5 BAU + RCP8.5 CC impacts X X X X RAP5
RCP6.0 BAU + RCP6.0 CC impacts RAP1 RAP2 RAP3 RAP4
RCP4.5 BAU + RCP4.5 CC impacts RAP3m
RCP2.6 Ambitiousmitigation
(+RCP2.6 CC impacts)
RAP1m RAP2m X RAP4m RAP5m
NoCC NoCCscenarios NoCC1 NoCC2 NoCC3 NoCC4 NoCC5

11. AgMIP Global Economics
Next steps
• Current work in review at Environmental Research
Letters and USDA report on climate change and
food security
• RAPs, land use, livestock, trade, elasticities
• Additional SSP x RCP scenarios
• Special issue in 2016
• Contributions to IPCC AR6

12. Thank you
k.wiebe@cgiar.org