This document discusses the need for a paradigm shift away from the green revolution model of agriculture towards more sustainable practices. It argues that the green revolution has failed to resolve issues of hunger, poverty, threats to livelihoods and the environment. The IAASTD report and other analyses call for a fundamental transition to agroecological practices that address social and economic equity issues for small farms while building resilience. Examples like push-pull approaches show how natural systems can boost yields and quality through ecosystem services like pest control and pollination while improving soils, integrating animals and closing yield gaps. With investments of 0.1-0.2% of GDP per year in research, training and appropriate technologies, sustainable agriculture can support growth while reducing

1. Paradigm Change for African
Agriculture: why and how to make
the transition
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
HUMID HIGHLAND SYSTEMS OF SUB-
SAHARAN AFRICA Hans R. Herren
President www.millennium-institute.org
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE KIGALI | President www.biovision.ch
Co-Chair IAASTD www.agassessment.org
RWANDA | OCT. 24 - 27, 2011 Coordinator UNEP GER Agriculture Chapter

2. K
The IAASTD Reports
(www.agassessment.org)
Co-Chairs: Hans R Herren & Judy Whakungu
Multi-stakeholder: 400 authors, 52 countries
Multi-disciplinary
Multi-locational: Global / sub-Global Reports

3. The green revolution approach to food
production / security leaves key issues
unresolved
• Hunger and Poverty
• Threatened rural livelihoods
• Nutrition and Human Health
• Environmental, Social, Equity and
Sustainable Development problems
…now what?
More of the same? Quick symptom fixes and
reductionist approaches, or ?

4. Green Revolution: not the model for the future
GR bases is ecologically and economically unsustainable
David Tilman et al. Science 2001

5. Green Revolution: not the model form the future
GR bases is ecologically and economically unsustainable
Land degradation
World map of severity of land degradation – GLASOD (FAO 2000)

6. Understanding the consequences of unsustainable agric:
Land and biodiversity loss

7. Green Revolution: (big) part of the problem
GR bases is also environmentally unsustainable
Grain Unctad 2011

8. Understanding the consequences of unsustainable agric:
Temperature and water stresses
0%
2080 -50% -15% +15% +35%

9. Green Revolution: can lead to waste of natural resources
GR bases is also socially unsustainable

10. The green revolution approach to food
production / security leaves key issues
unresolved
• Hunger and Poverty
• Threatened rural livelihoods
• Nutrition and Human Health
• Environmental, Social, Equity and
Sustainable Development problems
…now what?
More of the same? Quick symptom fixes and
reductionist approaches, or ?

11. Main conclusions of the IAASTD et al…..
“a fundamental shift in AKST and the linked agri-food
system policies, institutions, capacity development and
investments”
Paradigm change: Transition to sustainable / organic
/ecological agri - culture
i.e., addresses multifunctionality and resilience
needs of the small-scale and family farms (social &
economic: equity issue, farmer status, land ownership,
empowerment, women), quality job creation (Edu at all
levels);
• systemic and holistic approach (basic ecological
principles); treat cause not symptoms; is part of the
solution to hunger, poverty, health, CC

12. Agriculture the main solution: Multifunctionality
paradigm for sustainable development
equitable livable
sustainable
viable

13. New look at agriculture…..
…it is all connected in a complex and dynamic system
Land Loss & Food Production
Flooding
Health Catastrophes
Land Loss
Life Sustaining
Energy Sector Biofuels
Calories per Capita
O
Famines
Production O S
S
Petroleum Use for O S
Calorie S
Fertilizer Habitat Gap
S Conversion O
S Human
S Population
R Fertilizer Human S Human
R Calories per
Demand B Births Deaths
S Toxic Acres in Capita
Residue O
O Agriculture
O
Population
Density
Human
S
Soil
S S O
S Population
Plant
Capacity Soil Nutient B S
Soil Nutrient Calories
Consumption Plant Plant
Productioin Production Consumption Migration
Plant Calories for
O Human Use
S O
S
Droughts S S
Soil
Salinization S S
S
Exposure to a Higher
Variation in Rainfall
S Plant Calories for Standard of Living
Pattern
Meat Production
Irrigation
S S
S
Global Migration
Temperature
S Pursuit of 1st World
Water S
Demand Food Mix
Methane S
Production
Fresh Water S Meat S
S Meat Calories Meat
Production Consumption
Global
Warming

14. Agriculture the main solution: ….via a transition to
sustainable, organic, agroecological, resilient, equitable agriculture
High productivity
Low productivity
Un-sustainable Sustainable

15. Making the right move: monocrop….or?

16. …Economic-Social-Environmental resilience:
multicrop, corridors,..

17. The Green way ahead: agro-ecological approaches
Organic Conventional
In 1995 –drought year

18. Green way ahead: Push-Pull approach
……..using the gifts of nature, habitat management

19. “Push – Pull” approach, makes ecological sense….

20. “Push – Pull” approach, promotes ecosystem services….
i.e., pest control

21. “Push – Pull” approach, promotes ecosystem services….
i.e., pollination
Using natural
systems to
increase
productivity
and quality
through wild
pollination
services

22. “Push – Pull” approach closes the yield gap….

23. “Push – Pull” approach, brings the animals back on the
farm
It is
imperative to
put the
animals back
on farm:
sanitation,
health,
carbon cycle,
sustainability

24. “Push – Pull” approach, is compatible with SRI (Rice, Tef,
Sorghum, ….

25. “Push – Pull” approach, would fit in agroforestry
systems

26. “Push – Pull” approach, brings water and life back into
the soil…and carbon too
Promoting soil
health through
maintenance
or restoration
of the soil flora
and fauna
through
reduced agro-
chemical use
Realize yield
gap, stop
herbicide
accumulation

27. “Push – Pull” approach, can be mechanized and works
against drudgery

28. “Push – Pull” makes economical sense too….
3,000
a
2,500
Maize monocrop
Maize + Des modium
Maize + Des es modium + bean s ame hole b
Currency (US$)-(1US$/65 KES) per ha.
Maize + Des modium + bean different hole
2,000 Maize + bean c
d
1,500
a a
b
b
c
1,000 d b
b
e
a a
a
b c
500
b
0
Total labour costs Total variable costs Total gross revenue d
Net benefits
-500

29. Green way ahead: Biotechnology and genetic
engineering

30. The way ahead: More diversity (plants & animals
and better nutrition-health and environment)
Encouraging a
wider genetic
base in
agriculture…trees
, fruits, grains,
vegetables, lost
crops, animals
for nutrition and
health, cultural
diversity,
incomes, pest
control, resilience
to climate change
Barilla, 2011

31. Green way ahead: is knowledge intensive
• Improve and expand extension services (ICT)
• Introduce capacity building (ICT)
• Agriculture is very localized = local solutions
Example: Biovision’s Farmer Communication Program
www.organicfarmermagazine.org & www.infonet-biovision.org
http://www.biovision.ch

32. ? Can it be done: The forward looking scenarios:
Analysis and investments
Global investments across sectors (1% and 2% of
GDP); 0.2% and 0.32% of GDP invested in AG and
fisheries (50-50).
- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective bio-
pesticide use)
- Ag management practices (costs to transition from till to
no till agriculture, training, access to small mechanization)
- R&D (research on crop improvement (orphan crops), soil
science and agronomy, appropriate mechanization, and more)
- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural
areas)

33. Agriculture in a Green Economy (UNEP Report – 2011)
Investing 0.1% or 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year

34. Conclusions
• Brown scenarios support growth but show increased
pressure on natural resources, higher emissions and low
economic resilience.
• Green investments support social, economic and
environmental growth (restoration):
– Resource efficiency makes the economy more resilient;
– Lower carbon development reduces energy costs and
lowers risks related to climate change;
– Jobs are both created and lost, transition strategies need
to be designed and implemented;
• Investments have to be carefully allocated and behavioral
changes might be needed in support of public policies and
private investments.

35. In conclusion,cont’nd
The change that is needed will first start with each of us…
….then as a group of like minded we need to:
• take a medium and long, holistic, multifunctional and
systemic view in addressing the challenges (treat the
causes, not the symptoms)
• invest more in research, education and examples
• keep the focus on the finality of agriculture and food
systems: health (4H), equity and cultural diversity
• support changes in governance (be active in policy design to
turn the table on perverse subsidies and favor a true food
pricing policy)
……and yes it can be done, so lets do it NOW

36. You cannot solve the problem with the same
kind of thinking that created the problem
Albert Einstein
Thank you
www.millennium-institute.org &
http://www.biovision.ch