CPWF researcher, Dr Summer Allen, presents her team's findings regarding the link between poverty and water access in poor rural areas across the Sao Francisco river basin of Brazil.

1. Water and Poverty Linkages in Agricultural Settings: São Francisco River Basin, Brazil Summer L. Allen World Water Week Stockholm, Sweden August 18, 2009

4. Research Location

5. Total Poverty in SFRB

6. Rural Poverty

7. Water Availability

8. Agricultural Production

9. Precipitation and Rural Poverty in the SFRB 0 20% 40% 60% % rural poor 500 1000 1500 2000 mean precipitation(mm)

12. Low Precipitation Areas

13. Low Precipitation Areas Poverty Extreme Poverty VARIABLES Water Agric Socio-Econ Political Water Agri Socio-Econ Political Precipitation 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.02 -0.02 0.04 Std dev of precip 0.49*** 0.45*** 0.25* 0.25* 0.30** 0.24* 0.08 0.05 Water avail index 1.00 5.86 2.77 2.45 0.10 2.76 1.13 1.23 % irrigated -0.64*** -0.47** -0.47** -0.36** -0.27 -0.28* Log productivity index -25.95*** -14.35** -12.54** -17.32*** -9.80** -8.85** Log cultivated area -6.65** -0.28 -0.31 -5.84** -2.12 -1.89 Distance to cities 0.07* 0.07* 0.09** 0.07* Distance to airports 0.10* 0.08 0.14*** 0.12** % migrated -1.17 -1.60** -0.11 -0.92 Log rural wages -7.38* -8.09* -6.11 -4.78 Dependency ratio 0.37*** 0.36*** 0.20*** 0.21*** Log Urbanization 1.65 6.17 1.72 9.59 education 2.97 4.35 -0.85 0.28 % small farms -0.23 -0.53 0.37 0.2 AL state 0.08*** 0.09*** SE state 0.04* 0.06*** BA1 state 0.04** 0.08*** PE1 state 0.04** 0.07*** Município size 0.08 0.18 Observations 238 237 195 195 237 236 194 194 Adjusted R-squared 0.03 0.204 0.436 0.462 0.012 0.126 0.279 0.382

14. High Precipitation Areas

15. High Precipitation Areas Poverty Extreme Poverty VARIABLES Water Agri Socio-Econ Political Water Agri Socio-Econ Political Precipitation -0.30*** -0.35*** -0.18*** -0.16*** -0.11*** -0.14*** -0.07*** -0.05*** Std dev of precip 1.01*** 0.99*** 0.32** 0.22 0.56*** 0.55*** 0.25*** 0.11 Water avail index -10.29 -6.74 -4.67 -6.89* -1.18 0.75 1.95 -0.5 % irrigated 0.02 -0.21 -0.26 0.01 0.04 0.02 Log productivity index -29.36** -10.07 -10.14 -13.29** -6.11 -5.88* Log cultivated area 20.27*** 7.02** 2.74 11.20*** 4.54*** 0.32 Distance to cities 0.08** 0.08* 0.05** 0.04* Distance to airports 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.01 % migrated -0.1 -0.29 0.29 0.09 Log rural wages -18.58*** -18.60*** -4.50** -4.22** Dependency ratio 0.42*** 0.38*** 0.13*** 0.09*** Log Urbanization -71.46*** -62.30*** -43.97*** -32.56*** education -25.20*** -21.84*** -16.50*** -11.66*** % small farms 1.96*** 1.75*** 0.96*** 1.00*** MG state -0.05* -0.03** BA1 state -0.01 0.01 Município Size 0.09 0.15 Observations 193 193 171 171 193 193 171 171 Adjusted R-squared 0.416 0.485 0.788 0.797 0.397 0.497 0.735 0.812