Monthly media brief - April/May 2017

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PowerPoint Presentation
A CXC Global Knowledge Initiative
Monthly Media Brief
Employment | The Economy | Contract Work
April-May 2017

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THE ECONOMY
The following, a summary of the coverage around the economic outlook for
Australia for the period: April – May 2017

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Economic Outlook
Consumer sentiment continues to slide, amidst
what is starting to be called a ‘retail recession’.
In April, sentiment inched lower, as consumers
worried about the economic outlook, which
overshadowed what was growing optimism about
the state of family finances. A survey by the
Melbourne Institute and Westpac found sentiment
dropped 0.7% in April after a rise of 0.1% in March
The index is still up on the same time last year.
However, the latest data marks the fifth
consecutive month when the index has been
below 100 - indicating that pessimists are
slightly outnumbering optimists
Expectations for the economic outlook over
the next 12 months fell 6.5 per cent, and the
assessment of economic conditions for the
next five years dropped 2.7 per cent.
Westpac's chief economist, Bill Evans, felt
confidence had held up well in the face of
media attention over housing affordability and
growing geopolitical tensions globally.
The IMF remains upbeat about Australia’s
economy, forecasting far better economic
growth than the latest Treasury forecasts,
despite the political uncertainties created by
Brexit and US President Donald Trump.

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Economic Outlook
From Business Insider:
• In an update to the World Economic Outlook report, the IMF puts GDP
in Australia at 3.1% for 2017, up from 2.5% in 2016, and at 3% for
next year
• The IMF expects inflation to hit 2% this year, from 1.3% last year, and
for unemployment to drop to 5.2% from 5.7%
• The IMF forecasts the world economy to grow at 3.5% in 2017, up
from 3.1% last year, and 3.6% in 2018
• The new projection for 2017 is marginally higher than what was
expected in the last update to the World Economic Outlook
• “This improvement comes primarily from good economic news
for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for
higher growth this year in the United States,” says the IMF.
• The IMF points to improved commodity prices.
• Natural gas prices have increased in Europe on account of supply
tightening and higher oil prices.
• “Coal prices have rallied, by 21%, following government-led
reductions in coal production in China and outages in Australia
that affected production and shipment,” says the IMF.

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Economic Outlook
Capital Economics chief Australian
economist, Paul Dales, said consumer
confidence has been trending down for
the last six months or so.
"That's consistent with the idea that the
outlook for employment isn't particularly
strong, the outlook for wage growth isn't
particularly strong, so households aren't
about to go out and start spending a lot
more," he told ABC News.
Consumer
Sentiment
From the ABC:

Fusion
Economic Outlook
There’s mild hysteria about the imminent arrival of Amazon in
Australia (largely from Australian bricks & mortar retailers with
less-than-savvy online business models). Economists are warning
the discretionary retail sector is heading for a recession. And with
little in the Federal budget to make retailers more optimistic –
whether that’s in the rising cost of living or the zero wages growth
expectation – it’s expected Australians will be shopping, mostly,
for the essentials.
The Retail Sector: Here’s an example of what’s happening: a
bearish Credit Suisse note triggered a sell-
down of Myer shares on Monday of this week.
The stock lost 10%. It rose again by 3% on
Wednesday, but those gains were wiped on
Thursday when it lost ANOTHER 3.2%. Ouch.
Myer is getting a lot of heat in the media at
the moment, due to recent performance
numbers. But analysts also have also
downgraded Harvey Norman & JB Hi-Fi this
week, after reviewing the likely hit Amazon
will have on our retail sector.
It’s surprising, this recent ‘shock’ about
Amazon, as the sector has known about
their arrival for some time. Speculation is
rife, that the only thing that will save our
local retail sector against the global online
shopping giant, is political lobbying with
the goal of levelling the playing field with
respect to taxation of international
competitors, operating in Australia.

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Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
The banks are feeling hard done by. They’ve all come out whining
about the bank levy announced by the Treasurer on Tuesday night.
The message across each of the four big banks, was very consistent.
Firstly the banks…
Westpac’s CEO, Brian Hartzer:
• Described the bank levy as a ‘stealth tax’
• It will likely increase interest of borrowers, and also described it
as a hit on the retirement savings of millions of Australia
• There’s no ‘magic pudding’, he believes the “cost of any new
tax is ultimately borne by shareholders, borrowers, depositor
and employees”
ANZ Banking Group chief, Shayne Elliott:
• described the tax as "regrettable policy"
• said it failed to recognise the banking sector is already the largest
taxpayer in corporate Australia contributing $11.5 billion each year
to government revenue
• "We believe the initial public support for the tax will prove to be
misplaced and the speed which it is likely to pass into law highlights
how divisive the banking industry's relationship with many in
parliament and the broader community has become," he said

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Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
The banks…
NAB chief, Andrew Thorburn:
• Said the tax will “impact millions of everyday Australians who
are employees, customers or shareholders of banks”
• “It’s not just a tax on a bank. It’s a tax on every Australian who
benefits from, and is part of, our industry”
Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief executive, Ian Narev:
• The cost of the bank levy would be borne by "customers or
shareholders, or a combination of both"
• To CBA staff he described the tax as "bad policy"
• "There was no consultation with the banking system about a tax
that will impact on economic growth and the strength of our
banks," he said
The banks are being called the ‘biggest losers’ from this budget, who
will face increased taxes from 1 July worth $6.2bn over four years.

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Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
Business…
• Business will need to pay new levies for foreign workers, raising $1.2b
over 4 years
• Businesses tax numbers with a turnover of more than $10m
– $5k up front for each foreign employee on a permanent work
visa
– $1.8k for each employee on a temporary skill shortage visa
(which will replace the 457 visa)
• Businesses tax numbers with a turnover of less than $10m
– $3k up front for each foreign employee on a permanent work
visa
– $1.2k for each employee on a temporary skill shortage visa
(which will replace the 457 visa)
• The levy on businesses using foreign workers will fund up to 300,000
apprenticeships and traineeships over four years
• The budget confirms the government’s intention to legislate the rest
of its $48bn 10-year company tax cut plan, and continues the $20,000
instant asset write-off facility for small businesses below $10m
turnover for another year
• Propose to raise $318m in revenue by extending a black economy
crackdown to contractors in the courier and cleaning industries
• The most bullish forecast might be the 3% growth in wages the
Treasurer is counting on in two years' time coinciding with a drop in
the unemployment rate to 5.5% by June 2019

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Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
Housing…
• The government will increase the capital gains tax discount
from 50% to 60% for residents who choose to invest in
affordable housing
• Harsher laws for foreign property owners as a means of
addressing housing affordability
• Foreign owners of property in Australia who leave it unoccupied
or not genuinely available for rent at least six months of the
year will be taxed
• Voluntary contributions to superannuation will be available for
withdrawal for a first home deposit. Up to $30,000 can be
contributed and withdrawals allowed from July 2018 onwards.
A person aged 65 or over will be allowed to make a non-
concessional contribution of up to $300,000 from the proceeds
of selling their home
• Negative gearing perks are being tightened with deductions of
travel expenses for residential rental property being eliminated.
They expect savings to the budget of $540m over four years
• Managed investment trusts will be enabled to invest in
affordable housing

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Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
FinTech…
• As a means of encouraging growth in the FinTech sector in
Australia, Bitcoin users will no longer be taxed twice, with bitcoin
being increasingly considered ‘money’. Currently, Bitcoin is as
‘intangible property’ for GST purposes so people can effectively
pay GST twice – once on the purchase of the currency and again on
its use. The purchase of digital currency will no longer be subject
to GST. It’s estimated to have a small but unquantifiable decrease
in GST collections
Infrastructure…
• The government claims it will invest $75bn into a 10 year
infrastructure program. This includes a $10bn National Rail
Program to improve connections between cities and regions
• Other eligible projects include Adelink, Brisbane Metro,
Tullamarine Rail link, the Brisbane Cross River Rail and the Western
Sydney Airport Rail link
Education…
• Higher education reforms announced before the budget, including
an efficiency dividend and increases in fees, will rase $3.756bn
over four years

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Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
The rest..
• The replacement of the 457 visa will cost $65.3m over four years.
Changes to visa application charges across the board is forecast to
raise $410m
• The Coalition is bringing forward the timetable to increase
spending on defence to 2% of GDP, three years earlier than
originally planned. The 2020-21 allocation of $42bn is up from
$34.6bn next financial year
• A personal tax hike, in the form of a 0.5% Medicare levy, from
2019 for people earning over $21, 655 to fund the NDIS
• Welfare recipients will face drug testing

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JOBS OUTLOOK
The following, a summary of the coverage around jobs outlook for Australia for
the period: April-May 2017

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Rise in job ads in
April 2017,
compared to the
March, according
to SEEK
+1.4%
Jobs Outlook
• The data in March was smashing it. According to the ABS,
employment increased by a massive 60,900 in seasonally
adjusted terms, easily surpassing the 20,000 increase
expected by economists.
• The lift in employment was the largest since September
2015, and the sixth consecutive month with an increase.
Over that period, full-time employment increased by 67,800,
or 0.8%, marking the first time since August 2016 that it rose
from a year earlier. Part-time employment grew by 78,100,
or 2.1%, the slowest increase since March 2015.
Jobs Outlook:
Over that period, full-time employment
increased by 67,800, or 0.8%, marking the first
time since August 2016 that it rose from a year
earlier. Part-time employment grew by 78,100,
or 2.1%, the slowest increase since March 2015.

Fusion
Jobs Outlook
• Roy Morgan’s data takes a different perspective. What they
call Australia’s ‘real’ unemployment was, for April, unchanged
at 9.3% (1.217 million Australians looking for work).
• In addition for the eighth straight month more than 1 million
Australians were under-employed in April – now 1.090 million
(8.3% of the workforce)
• This is a total of 2.307 million Australians (17.6% of the
workforce) looking for work or looking for more work
• In April the total Australian workforce was 13,133,000 (up
323,000 in a year) and employment grew strongly to
11,916,000 (up 440,000)
• However the increase in employment was entirely driven by a
large increase in part-time employment which rose 471,000
to 4,300,000 while full-time employment fell 31,000 to
7,616,000
• So while real unemployment at 9.3% is down 1.1% from a
year ago, under-employment is up 0.6% to 8.3% over the
same period. The rise in under-employment is a direct
consequence of the increasing proportion of part-time
employment at the expense of full-time jobs
• The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially
higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2017 (5.9%)
Jobs Outlook:

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• About 800 workers have been stood down
from work at a construction site in Darwin that
is part of the $50 billion Ichthys LNG project
headed by Japanese energy giant Inpex
• The workers were “demobilised” by contractor
Laing O’Rourke this morning following a
dispute with Japanese firm Kawasaki Heavy
Industries over the construction of four
cryogenic tanks. Laing O’Rourke reportedly
believes Kawasaki owes it over $200 million
• About 640 of those stood down are direct
employees and the rest subcontractors
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Jobs Outlook
Other news in jobs…

Fusion
Jobs Outlook
And on a lighter note in jobs, you couldn’t have
missed the delightfully (not) white Labor Party
ad, about ‘Australians first’ for Australian jobs.
The ad was a shocker. Now taken off-air, it
features Labor leader Bill Shorten discussing
jobs for Australians in front of a group of people
in workwear, almost all of whom appear to be
white. The ad had the famous hashtag,
#OscarsSoWhite, attributed to it.
Other news in jobs…

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Contingent
Workforce
Update

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Contingent Workforce
The NSW Government:
• The NSW Government is spending up big on
contingent labour
• The largest category of workers are in the ICT
category with roles such as software developers,
network engineers and IT managers. Last year, the
biggest category of contingent labour with the NSW
government, was administration roles
• They’re defining ‘contingent labour’ as people
employed by a recruitment agency and hired by
agencies in order to fill a skills gap
• In 2015/26 the state government spend $1.1b on
contingent labour, up from $503m in 2011/2
• In 2016, 2.3% of public sector workforce in NSW
was contingent (which, they’re saying is around
7,571 FTE)
Contingent Workforce..

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General News:
Ongoing coverage of the increasing use of contingent
labour both in Australia & across the globe
• There’s not a lot of research, which is of a high
standard. A recent survey by the Brandon Hall Group
(a US based HCM group) on contingent labour. Here
are some of the findings:
1. The research also shows that nearly ¾ of
organisations say their contingent workforce is
effective or very effective, and more than 70% believe
the use of contingent labour is strategic to specific
business functions or to the business as a whole
2. Overall, about half of organisations plan to increase
spending on contingent labour over the next year
including 60% of small organisations (under 1,000
employees), 38% of mid-size companies (1,000-9,999
employees), and 44% of large employers (10,000+)
3. But the division of labour depends quite a bit on the
demographic. At large organisations, paid interns and
staffing firm referrals are utilised most often, while
independent contractors are most prevalent at mid-
size and small organisations. Interestingly, high-
performing organisations use retirees almost three
times as frequently than other organisations

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According to Bullhorn, the
partnership will develop a
seamless, closed-loop
integration between the
SEEK job portal and Bullhorn
Applicant Tracking
System/Customer
Relationship Management,
available as part of
Bullhorn’s marketplace
effective immediately
Bullhorn, a global
provider of customer
relationship management
software for the staffing
and recruiting industries,
has announced that it has
partnered with Australian
job board SEEK
From HR Dive and the
recent ‘WorkdatWork
Total Rewards
Conference’ in the US
HR people are under the
pump, and increasingly
being called upon to do
more with less.
Tightening resources,
changing technologies
and frustrated employees
calling for more flexibility
have forced HR
professionals to find
adaptable workforce
solutions that fit a
shifting model

Fusion
Six categories of contingent workers, have been
identified:
1. Freelancers & independent contractors
2. Temporary & seasonal workers
3. Professional service providers
4. Outsourced service providers
5. Agency temp workers
6. Special cases
(WorldatWork’s Total Rewards Conference)
The three top reasons stated for utilising contingent
workers were:
1. Staffing flexibility
2. A need to bring hard-to-find skillsets in-house
3. Cost savings
A
B
C

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• Worker classification is hard to achieve, especially in light of
the litigation at play with Uber in the US (and increasingly
around the world)
• Key issues include length of engagement, employee
integration and even healthcare
• the increase in self-employment, has doubled over the last
four decades in the UK to reach 16% of the UK labour market
and continues to rise
• It has been predicted that the UK could reach 50 per cent by
the end of the next decade.
• A recent Deloitte study of multinationals found that around
a third of their workforces are contingent, and 51% of
business leaders believe that figure will increase within the
next five years
• Upwork says that, in the US, one in three workers is now
freelance – a figure it claims could hit 50 per cent by 2020
• The sole trader freelancer is becoming more common than
the small business owner, and more people are now in the
‘grey area’ between employment and self-employment

Fusion
Sources
https://www.businessinsider.com.au
http://www.smh.com.au/business
http://www.abc.net.au/news
http://www.afr.com/business
https://www.theguardian.com
http://www.news.com.au/finance
http://www.roymorgan.com
http://computerworld.com.au
http://prweb.com
http://contractorUK.com
http://www.hrdive.com/news
http://www2.cipd.co.uk
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/

Fusion
Contact CXC Global Level 6, 9 Hunter St Sydney NSW 2000Address:
Phone:
Web:
E-mail:
+61 1300 724 082
cxcglobal.com.au
info@cxcglobal.com.au

Monthly media brief - April/May 2017

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