1. With the uncertain global outlook for 2016, what labour market trends are expected in the various regions? Find out more in the latest Kelly Global Talent Market Quarterly Report.
2. With a slowing global economic situation, what is the hiring outlook for the APAC region? Find out more in the latest Kelly Global Talent Market Quarterly Report.
2. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
Source: IHS Global Insight (February 2016). Annual average estimated/projected growth in real GDP and annual average estimated/projected unemployment rates.2
India
Australia
China
Japan
France
Germany
Russia
UK
Brazil
Canada
US
Mexico
WORLD
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
UnemploymentRate(2016e)
GDP Growth (2016e)
The outlook for the global economy in 2016 is uncertain, with financial market volatility, depressed commodity prices, and slowing in key emerging
markets keeping growth prospects muted. Brazil and Russia face continued recessionary conditions, while China’s economic momentum continues to
cool amid stock market instability and structural challenges—all leading to a significant amount of labor market uncertainty. Developed markets are
expected to weather these economic storms with generally moderate GDP growth, steady job creation, and stable to slowly falling employment.
Q 1 ‘ 1 6
G L O B A L E C O N O M I C &
L A B O R M A R K E T S N A P S H O T
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
2018p
2017p
2016e
2015e
G D P G r o w t h
WORLD
AMER
EMEA
APAC
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
2018p
2017p
2016e
2015e
U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
WORLD
AMER
EMEA
APAC
3. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2016); Lexology, 01.20.16, 12.16.15, 08.12.15; Associated Press, 01.21.163
The Brazilian economy is in recession, with corruption,
political crises, and double digit inflation causing business
and consumer confidence to fall to record lows. The
economy shed 1.5 million formal sector jobs in 2015;
unemployment is projected to rise further in 2016.
1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3%
6.9% 6.9% 6.7% 6.6%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
Headwinds from the decline in oil prices will put a
damper on Canadian economic growth in 2016. The
labor market is expected to be similarly tepid, with
modest hiring in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia
offset by challenges in the oil producing provinces.
Despite some mixed signals from the economy and labor
market recently, fundamentals of both appear solid
heading into 2016. Economic growth cooled slightly to
end 2015, but employment gains are decent and
unemployment continues to slowly decline.
Stronger US growth is expected to help the Mexican
economy in 2016, but low oil prices will keep expansion
in check. Formal sector job creation will continue, but
unemployment may increase as workers transition from
the informal sector to the formal sector.
A M E R
-3.7% -3.0%
1.4%
2.4%
8.2% 9.7% 9.5% 9.4%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
Although US economic and labor market growth is expected to hold up in 2016, other major Americas markets face greater challenges. Low oil prices
are a factor in Canada’s more subdued outlook, while oil prices along with political and fiscal crises plague Brazil and other South American markets.
BRAZIL
CANADA
2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6%
5.3% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
US
2.4% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2%
4.4% 4.7% 4.3% 4.2%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
MEXICO
L E G I S L A T I V E
H I G H L I G H T S
U N I T E D S T A T E S
The US Department of Labor has
proposed raising the threshold for
mandatory payment of overtime for
salaried workers. The salary at which
workers would become exempt from
overtime would more than double
(from the current $23,660 a year to
$50,440 per year), meaning that
workers earning less than that figure
would be eligible for overtime pay.
B R A Z I L
Under a new crisis measure,
employers that are in financial
difficulties are now able to reduce
their employees’ work hours and
proportionally, their salaries, by up
to 30%. The reductions must apply
to all employees or a distinct
functional group, and employees
affected under this plan may not be
terminated without cause during the
reductions, and for an additional
period following the reductions.
4. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
4
The economic recovery is expected to accelerate modestly
in 2016, but still faces many headwinds. Growth will be too
muted to significantly lower the high unemployment rate,
and the government’s measures designed to boost
employment are also unlikely to have much of an effect.
1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7%
6.4% 6.3% 6.5% 6.5%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
Despite significant risk factors, the German economy is
projected to strengthen in 2016, supported by robust
consumer demand. Although job creation is expected to
remain healthy, the absorption of large numbers of
refugees will keep unemployment rates somewhat high.
UK economic growth is projected to continue along a
moderate trajectory in 2016. The labor market also
continues to improve, with unemployment projected to
dip as labor demand remains solid. Skills shortages are
beginning to emerge in some sectors.
A host of challenges―low oil prices, strong consumer
price inflation, sagging confidence, and financial
sanctions—will continue to plague the Russian economy
in 2016, nudging unemployment upward. A modest
recovery should begin to take hold in 2017
E M E A
1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3%
10.5% 10.3% 9.6% 9.3%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
FRANCE
GERMANY
2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4%
5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
UK
-3.9% -1.1%
0.8%
2.5%
5.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.3%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
RUSSIA
L E G I S L A T I V E
H I G H L I G H T S
P O L A N D
On February 22, 2016, a new
amendment to the Labor Code
comes into force. Under this
amendment, if an employer enters
into more than three fixed-term
contracts with the same employee,
or if those contracts run for a
combined period of more than 33
months, the employee will then be
considered permanent. Exceptions
apply for certain types of contracts.
R U S S I A
A new law that regulates the usage
of temporary labor came into effect
on January 1, 2016. Among the
provisions: agencies supplying
temporary labor must be registered
and accredited in Russia, and must
furnish temporary employees with
both an employment contract and a
separate contract stating the name
of the client. The law also mandates
that clients use temporary workers
only in certain situations, and limits
assignments to nine months.
Moderate economic growth is projected across much of Europe, bringing some job growth and declining unemployment. Meanwhile, plummeting
oil prices and geopolitical troubles are negatively impacting many economies and labor markets in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2016); SIA Legal Update, 12.23.15; Lexology, 02.01.16
5. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
5
Economic growth in Australia is expected to remain
relatively muted in 2016, due to weak Chinese demand
and ongoing cooling in the mining sector. These uncertain
conditions are unlikely to spur much job growth, keeping
unemployment rates elevated.
7.2% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7%
8.7%
8.3%
7.9%
7.5%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
China’s economic momentum continues to slow. The
6.9% growth rate in 2015 was the slowest in 25 years,
and the outlook calls for 6.3% growth in 2016. Official
labor market data is notoriously murky, but the job
market is expected to worsen as the economy struggles.
After volatile quarterly GDP growth in 2015, a slight
acceleration is expected in Japan in 2016, ahead of the
anticipated consumption tax hike in 2017. Steady
worker demand and labor shortages are likely to lead to
moderate employment growth and wage pressure.
India has become the fastest-growing large economy,
supported by ongoing reforms, weak global oil prices,
and public and private investment activity. A focus on
boosting manufacturing activity should help create
jobs in this sector.
A P A C
2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8%
6.1% 6.0% 5.7% 5.6%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
Although growth in India continues to accelerate, the slowdown in China and ongoing price weakness in natural resources and other commodities are
undermining economic growth across many APAC markets. As a result, hiring outlooks for 2016 are somewhat subdued.
AUSTRALIAINDIA
0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7%
3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
JAPAN
6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4%
4.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1%
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth Unemployment
CHINA
L E G I S L A T I V E
H I G H L I G H T S
C H I N A
A decades-old policy was lifted on
January 1, 2016, allowing couples to
now have two children. Along with
this new policy comes changes to
maternity leave provisions. Under
the new law, married couples having
their first or second child are eligible
for extended maternity leave (and
paternity leave, if applicable under
local rules) regardless of age.
Previously, extended leave was only
available to a married woman who
gave birth to her and her husband’s
first child after she turned age 24.
I N D O N E S I A
Rules regarding the employment of
foreign workers have been relaxed.
The requirement to hire 10
Indonesian workers for every one
foreign worker has been removed.
Employers also no longer need a
permit to appoint foreign directors
and commissioners to Indonesian
firms, or when foreign visitors attend
meetings in Indonesia.
Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2016); SIA Asia Pacific Legal Update, Q4 2015; bbc.com, 01.19.16; EFY Times, 01.22.16
6. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
6
W O R L D
G L O B A L D ATA S P O T L I G H T :
L A B O R F O R C E PA R T I C I PAT I O N
L A B O R M A R K E T D R O P O U T S
The ILO estimates that there are around 2 billion working-age people globally who
are not in the labor market—and that number continues to climb. Around 26
million more people dropped out of the global labor market in 2015; the labor
force participation rate is expected to fall from 62.9% in 2015 to 62.5% in 2020.
Among large (G20) economies, labor force participation is forecast to see a greater
drop, from an already-low 62.3% in 2015 to 61.6% in 2020.
Both structural and cyclical factors are behind falling participation rates. In
economic downturns when employment opportunities are more scarce, many
would-be workers become discouraged and leave the labor force, or stay in school
longer than they would in a healthy economy. In some emerging economies, rising
wealth and income status also may mean that more young people are seeking
education rather than work, or that fewer women are working out of necessity. An
increasingly older population—a significant issue particularly in many developed
economies—can also factor into lower participation rates.
Source: World Employment and Social Outlook—Trends 2016, ILO; Beyond the Numbers, BLS, December 2015
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
G 2 0 L A B O R F O R C E P A R T I C I P A T I O N
R A T E S , P R O J E C T E D T O 2 0 2 0
G20 Markets Advanced G20 Markets
Emerging G20 Markets
% of working age (16-54) population
G20 Advanced Countries: Australia, Canada, EU28, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea,
Russia, Saudi Arabia, UK, US
G20 Emerging Countries: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey
13.9%
5.5% 5.0%
6.0%
0.9%
15.4%
6.5% 6.4%
5.4%
1.2%
Retired Ill or Disabled Going to School Home
Responsibilities
Other Reasons
U S : % N O T I N T H E L A B O R F O R C E B Y
R E A S O N , P O P U L A T I O N A G E 1 6 +
2004
2014
A new study from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that an
increasingly older (and sicker) population is indeed one of the key causes of
declining labor force participation in America. Retirees comprise the largest
group of Americans who are not part of the labor force—and this group saw
the largest increase over the past decade, from 13.9% to 15.4%. Those who
couldn’t work due to illness or disability also grew by around a percentage
point from 2004 to 2014, and now represent the second largest group of
those not in the labor force. Education also played a part in lowering labor
force participation over the last decade, with those citing school as their
reason for non-participation growing from 5% to 6.4%.
7. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
7
I N D U S T R Y
W O R K F O R C E S O L U T I O N S S P O T L I G H T :
G L O B A L I Z AT I O N O F M A N A G E D S E R V I C E P R O V I D E R S
Sources: 2015 MSP Annual Report, Everest; 2015 Contingent Buyers’ Survey, SIA; Targeting MSPs, Nelson Hall, 2015
M S P G O E S G L O B A L
As the MSP market continues to mature, deals that span
multiple countries are becoming more commonplace. As a
result, markets outside North America are seeing greater
usage of MSPs to manage companies’ contingent workforces.
Many multinationals still initiate MSP deals in their home
countries—generally in North America or Europe—and then
broaden the scope to include other geographies, but
increasingly more are choosing to implement MSPs in multiple
geographies concurrently as part of a holistic strategy.
The benefits of integrated, global MSP are significant. A
comprehensive view of contingent talent across countries
allows companies to improve demand management, leverage
scale advantages, and drive multiple operational efficiencies.
62%
55%
37%
26%
38%
47%
APAC
Europe
North America
Current usage Exploring in next 2 years
G L O B A L M A N A G E M E N T O F
C O N T I N G E N T W O R K E R S
G E O G R A P H I C S C O P E O F
M S P D E A L S
12%
28%
33%
31%
55%
41%
Up to 2012 2013-2014
Single Country
Regional*
Global*
* Regional: multiple countries within the same region;
Global: multiple regions
Duration of contract
Country
A
Country
B
Country
C, D
Country
A, B, C, D, E
Country
E Country
A
Country
B Country
C
Country
D
Country
E
Country
A
Country
B Country
C
Country
D
Country
E
Traditional
MSP
MSP 2.0
T R A D I T I O N A L V S . E M E R G I N G M S P M O D E L S
Implementation Structure
• In the past, MSP deals began in one
country, with others added over
time. Today, multi-country deals are
implemented from the get-go or
over a shorter time period.
• In today’s MSP deals, countries are
not discrete, independent units, but
work together to provide a holistic,
global view of the workforce.
35%
32%
21%
12%
Latin America
APAC
Europe
North America
M S P P R O J E C T E D G R O W T H ,
2 0 1 4 - 2 0 1 9 C A G R