Economy&housing230315 pres
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Presentation about economy and housing research for the LARIA research fortnight
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Economy&housing230315 pres
- 1. Economy and Housing Research Polly Jackson, Stuart Morris 23rd March 2015
- 2. “It’s the economy1 stupid” 1. Which is very closely linked with the housing market for many reasons including: land prices, house prices, population age structures, commuting patterns, retail locations, future employment trends, migration patterns, land availability, local earnings, strengths in industrial sectors, unemployment, the list goes on….
- 3. How many? 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 Number of homes to be built in Cambridgeshire 2011-31 Number of homes sold in Cambridgeshire in 2014 People claiming JSA in Cambridgeshire Dec-14 Total social rented stock
- 4. A format to suit everyone www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk
- 5. Economic evidence: East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) Jobs Population Housing
- 6. Cambridgeshire population forecasts 560 590 620 650 680 710 740 770 800 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Population(000s) EEFM high migration EEFM lost decade EEFM baseline Census trend CCC housing targets LEFM RG Pop ONS 2011-based projections LEFM baseline ONS 2010-based projections CCC natural change CCC no build East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM)
- 7. People Business Place Local Economic Assessment
- 8. People Business Place Local Economic Assessment
- 9. People Business Place Local Economic Assessment Cambridgeshire JSA claimant count unemployment : Total claimants aged 16-64 (Feb-04 to Dec-14)
- 10. People Business Place Workplace destination of employed residents aged 16-74 who live in East Cambridgeshire: proportion of total employed resident population aged 16-74 (2011) Local Economic Assessment
- 11. Housing Research • Strategic Housing Market Assessment – Assessment of housing requirement – Assessment of affordable housing need – Market signals: House Prices, Rents, Affordability, Supply of new homes, Overcrowding and Homelessness • Rural housing profiles • Fuel poverty atlas and benefits changes atlas
- 12. New developments surveys • 2006-2012: 7 surveys of about 35 sites, including Cambourne and Red Lodge. • Asking about household type, where they have moved from, employment and travel, and things people like/dislike about new developments • Individual reports for each survey and comparison report: http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/housing/h ousing-research/new-housing-development-surveys
- 13. Population 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% New town Substantial In-fill All new developments Sub-Region (2011) Percentageofpopulation Development Type Under 16 17-29 30-44 45-59 60+
- 14. New homes for local people 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 <2km <5km <10km <20km <30km <40km <60km Percentageofnewdevelopmenthouseholds Distance moved from previous home
- 15. Cambridge and South Cambs - a major economic centre • 63% of Cambourne residents work in City/South Cambs. 27% of Red Lodge residents employed in this area. • Cambridge is a major centre for non-food shopping. • Good road links to employment centres are important. More than three-quarters of respondents travel to work by car.
- 16. But Cambridge is an expensive place to live! Cambridge Cambourne Red Lodge Total properties sold 1,753 279 164 Sold for under £150K (Number) 90 28 40 Sold for under £150K (Percentage) 5% 10% 24% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Cambridge Cambourne Red Lodge Homessoldforlessthan£150,000 Detached Semi-detached Terrace Flat/maisonette Price compared to other areas was an important reason for choosing to live in Cambourne and Red Lodge, even though they are more expensive than neighbouring villages. But when you compare them to Cambridge… © Crown Copyright (2015) The Land Registry
- 17. Summary • Knowledge about the economy and housing are important in supporting council priorities around helping people live well independently in a safe environment and leading a healthy lifestyle, supporting a prosperous economy. • We have a range of resources available around housing and the economy including the EEFM, SHMA and new developments surveys.
- 18. @CambsInsight pinterest.com/cambsinsight Cambridgeshire Insight Come visit us! Shire Hall – Room 015 W: www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk T: 01223 715300 E: research.performance@cambridgeshire.gov.uk Coming soon Thurs 26th: Consultations, Customer Insight, and Community Safety
Notes de l'éditeur
- This presentation: explains how the economy & housing market are connected; explains why the economy and housing market matter; and provides examples of the economic and housing evidence available at www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk.
- The economy and housing market are very closely linked. For example, the strength of the economy affects house prices and house-building rates; the availability of different types of housing affects the supply of workers for jobs in an area; and the location of housing in relation to jobs affects commuting patterns. The economy and housing market are important to the County Council and other local authorities in Cambridgeshire. For example, good quality housing in the right place can support wellbeing of people- a priority for all the authorities; a prosperous economy with people in work means fewer people relying on county council services; and with lots of housing planned in Cambridgeshire, it’s essential that the Council provides services and infrastructure that meets future needs. It is therefore important to understand the local economy and housing market, to inform the decisions of officers and members. Collating local economic and housing market evidence also meets statutory requirements.
- Number of homes sold = 10,960. 2,363 sold for less than £150,000 Social rented stock in Cambridgeshire at time of last Census = 38,506 People claiming JSA in Cambridgeshire Dec-14 = 3,140 Number of homes to be built in Cambridgeshire 2011-31 = 73,500
- Recognising that different people understand information in different ways, the Research Group presents evidence in different formats to suit everyone. Formats include: raw data; interactive spreadsheets; interactive atlases (including features such as map, table, time series and bar chart); and written analysis.
- The East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) projects economic, demographic and housing trends in a consistent fashion, based upon a set of ‘baseline’ forecasts prepared by a leading independent forecasting house (Oxford Economics). It covers a wide range of variables, and is designed to be flexible so that alternative scenarios can be run.
- The EEFM was used to inform the assessment of the required number of houses in Cambridge Housing Market Area for 2011-31. Jobs-led population forecasts from the EEFM informed an update to the Strategic Housing Market Assessment, which is referenced in slide 11. The flexibility of the Model was particularly helpful in incorporating the planned jobs growth at Alconbury into the population forecasts which informed the housing demand figures. The EEFM also informed the authorities’ bid for the Greater Cambridge City Deal. Spreadsheet outputs from the EEFM are available at www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/eefm.
- The Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Economic Assessment provides a comprehensive economic evidence base. The Assessment is split into three sections: People, Business and Place, and covers the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Local Enterprise Partnership (GCGP LEP) geography, shown here. The Economic Assessment supports the District Councils to assess their economic development needs, and provides a strategic assessment of economic development needs at the LEP level. The Assessment provides a comprehensive economic evidence base and context for the County Council’s economic interventions, and supports the County Council to monitor its Business Plan priorities.
- As an example of Business evidence provided in the Economic Assessment, this slide shows a screenshot of the new GCGP Economic Assessment Data Atlas, available on Cambs Insight. The Economic Assessment Data Atlas allows users to explore the economic data in map, table, time series and bar chart form. This screenshot shows the number of people in professional, scientific and technical employment in 2013 (the latest data). The darkest green areas on the map are in Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire, reflecting the hi-tech cluster centred upon the city.
- As an example of People evidence provided in the Economic Assessment, this slide shows a time series chart of Cambridgeshire Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant count unemployment : Total claimants aged 16-64 (Feb-04 to Dec-14). The time series shows a clear increase in JSA claimants in 2008 and 2009, reflecting the start of the international recession. A high number of claimants remained until February 2013, since when the number has fallen pretty consistently. By December 2014, the number of JSA claimants in Cambridgeshire was at a lower point than it had been in February 2004. Individual elements from the Data Atlas , such as this chart, can be saved as images to be used as users wish.
- As an example of Place evidence provided in the Economic Assessment, this map and table show where the employed residents of East Cambridgeshire (aged 16-74) worked in 2011. As the darkest green colours on the map and the table show, 52% of employed residents of East Cambridgeshire work in East Cambridgeshire. The next highest proportion of employed East Cambridgeshire residents commute to work in Cambridge. As with the time series chart, the table and map can be downloaded as images from the Atlas.
- Example of housing research
- Population of new developments is quite young with a high number of children especially in new towns. Cambourne – good school as a “pull” factor for that site, but even on Red Lodge where moving to a good catchment doesn’t get a mention there is still a high proportion of children compared to Forest Heath as a whole.
- More than half of new development residents moved within 20km of their new home which suggests moves mostly within the same district/county (sites on the edges of Cambridgeshire have higher proportion of moves from outside the county, e.g. St Neots has people moving from Bedfordshire etc.)
- Cambridge is an important employment centre for most of the sites surveyed. While the “home” district was the most common place for people to work in, Cambridge showed as an important employment centre for a lot of sites. Cambridge has the largest change in workday population outside London, other Cambridgeshire districts, the population shrinks during the working day. Peterborough an important employment centre for Whittlesey and Yaxley etc (i.e. places on the edge of Peterborough).
- Another “draw” for new developments is sometimes price/affordability (mentioned a lot for reason to moving to Cambourne/Red Lodge). Cambourne is expensive compared to rest of South Cambs and Red Lodge is expensive compared to the rest of Forest Heath). Compared to Cambridge they are quite cheap. Graph shows data for 2014 from Land Registry. Proportionately more homes avaialble for less than £150K in Cambourne and Red Lodge, and the homes that are available in this price band are mostly leasehold flats in the city, and mostly semis or terraces and freehold in the new towns (another reason its attractive for young families).