The Future of Work
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Catalant CEO and Co-Founder, Rob Biederman, presented at the Future of Work Austin event in March of 2017. In this presentation, he shares his thoughts on the history of work and what changes we can expect in the coming years. Work is being reimagined; learn how your company can get ahead of this shift.
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The Future of Work
- 1. The Future of Work Rob Biederman Co-Founder and CEO, Catalant Technologies
- 2. How did you envision your career … when you were 10? 2
- 3. 3 Did you envision your city?
- 4. 4 Did you envision your city? Your office building?
- 5. 5 Your desk?
- 12. 12 How did we get here?
- 13. 13 Hunter-gather groups move constantly Prior to ~12,000BC
- 14. 14 http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/global/themes/change/neohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution; .cfm; Scanned from 1000 Fragen an die Natur, via The Metropolitan Museum of Art, Rogers Fund, 1948., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2959985 Permanent encampments form Neolithic Revolution ~12,000BC
- 15. 15 Small farms and skilled craftsmen Agrarian America (early 1600s – late 1700s) https://www.flickr.com/photos/jjc3/8220180903
- 16. 16By E.L. Hoskyn - Plate from More Pictures of British History, London, 1914, p.61. Publisher: London. Adam and Charles Black. 1914, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=8386342 Farms factories Industrial Revolution (late 1700s – early 1800s)
- 17. 17http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2010/09/model-t-plant-to-become-a-museum.html Factories bigger, more efficient factories 2nd Industrial Revolution (late 1800s – early 1900s)
- 18. 18 By The Opte Project - Originally from the English Wikipedia; description page is/was here., CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1538544 Mechanical digital 3rd Industrial Revolution (2nd half 1900s)
- 19. 19 Work is basically constant …until brief but explosive periods of change
- 20. 20 Is the 4th Industrial Revolution underway?
- 21. 21https://www.mbopartners.com/uploads/files/state-of-independence- reports/2016_MBO_Partners_State_of_Independence_Report.pdf For millions today, and more tomorrow, work is changing 2015 2021 29 34 # Americans working independently (Millions)
- 22. The “gig” economy growing rapidly 22
- 23. 23 Lifetime “company man” ideal = gone. For whom we work... How we source work… Where we work… For how long we work… …are all changing.
- 24. 24 Why?
- 25. 25 Four topics Workforce1 Employment landscape2 Other aids4 Technology enablement3
- 26. 26 The workforce today is more educated of the workforce has at least a bachelor’s degree (versus 27%)39% US census; 25 and older; Aug 2016 versus Aug 1996
- 27. 27 The workforce today is less unionized of employed workers are union members (versus 18%)11% US census; 2015 versus 1985
- 28. 28http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/11/millennials-surpass-gen-xers-as-the-largest- generation-in-u-s-labor-force/ (data is 1Q2015); US census The workforce today is more “Millennial” of the workforce is Millennial34%
- 29. 29 Millennials think differently See themselves at current job a decade from now 16% Would like to work remotely75% Feel in control of their career paths77% The Deloitte Millennial Survey 2016
- 30. 30US census Manufacturing services Jobs lost in manufacturing Jobs added in education & health serv., prof. & biz services, and hospitality 23% 35% Job movement, 2000 - 2015
- 31. 31US census, Aug 1996 and 2016 Worker manager Jobs lost from ‘sales and office’ and ‘production, transportation, and material moving’ Jobs added to ‘management and professional’ 11% 41% Job movement, 1996 - 2016
- 32. 32 KPCB.com/internettrends; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carnabotnet_geovideo_lowres.gif Ubiquitous global internet… billion internet users, 42% of global population 3
- 33. 33KPCB.com/internettrends; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carnabotnet_geovideo_lowres.gif …and ubiquitous smart phone billion smart phones, more than 5x penetration in 2010 2.5
- 34. 34http://fortune.com/2016/08/04/america-internet-speed-spikes/ Internet speeds are fast… Mbps --- average download speed on broadband in the US in June 2016, up 42% Y-o-Y55 Mbps --- avg download speed on mobile, up 33% Y-o-Y20
- 35. 35Fortune.com …and getting faster… Gbps --- expected top download speed on 5G mobile networks1
- 36. 36Akamai State of the Internet 1Q2016 …everywhere Countries with faster average connection speeds than the US14
- 37. 37By Fuelrefuel - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5146472; https://www.skype.com/en/meetings/; https://blogs.skype.com/2016/04/28/over-1-billion-skype-mobile- downloads-thank-you/ Video calls available to everyone billion Skype downloads, as of 4/161 From: To:
- 38. 38 KPBC; By Victorgrigas - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=20348454 Storage way up 10 billion petabytes of data in the digital universe, growing 50% p.a. ~$0.06 per GB of storage, falling 20% per annum Storage costs way down
- 39. 39https://www.cnet.com/how-to/onedrive-dropbox-google-drive-and-box-which-cloud-storage- service-is-right-for-you/ Secure cloud storage and file sharing available to all Gigabytes of free storage 15 10 5 2
- 40. 40http://coworkinghandbook.com/stats/ Coworking space expanding rapidly Number of coworking spaces globally 20132007 2015 3,40075 7,800
- 41. 41https://www.dol.gov/sites/default/files/ebsa/researchers/statistics/retirement- bulletins/historicaltables.pdf Traditional pensions a thing of the past # of private defined-benefit pensions 1983 2013 175k 44k
- 42. 42 What’s changed so far? Education1 Remote work increasing2 HR teams changing approach4 Gig economy ‘mainstreamed’3
- 43. 43 Number represent fall of each year; 2002 number estimated; http://onlinelearningconsortium.org/read/online-report-card-tracking-online-education-united- states-2015/ Online education continues to grow 2002 2014 1.2 5.8 # of higher education students enrolled in at least one online course (Millions) 28% of all enrolled students
- 44. 44 Remote working: rare common https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/270585; Gallup poll 1996 2015 9% 37% Workers that have worked remotely
- 45. http://nextjuggernaut.com/blog/on-demand-economy-survey-stats-future-economy-funding-trends-on-demand-startups/; MeasuringGigEconomy_1609.pdf staffingindustry.com 45 The on-demand economy is the new norm of US workers did gig work in 201529% of US adults have used at least one on-demand startup42%
- 46. 46 “home-working will no longer be defined as a Friday luxury” - World Economic Forum Employers are responding with a range of remote and flexible jobs
- 47. 47 Where has the impact been felt?
- 51. 51 Consulting “The shift is triggered when customers realize that they are paying too much for features they don’t value.” – Harvard Business Review HBR: Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption
- 52. 52 Legal HBR: Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption “AdvanceLaw survey: 79% agree that “unbundling of legal services…will rise.” – Harvard Business Review
- 53. 53 Where are we going? [a few guesses]
- 54. 54 Smaller FTE core Lower need for physical spaceReal estate Need to invest in collaboration/remote technologies Technology New skill set in sourcing short-term talent; HR becomes more important HR
- 55. 55 Changing competition for talent Shorter average tenure requires more-frequent talent acquisition and competition Companies compete with each other AND with ‘going independent’ for FTEs
- 56. 56 More versatile career paths Typical promotion path dies in favor of more flexibility within (and outside of) organizations Source: MBO Partners. America’s Independents A Rising Economic Force– 2016 State of Independence in America. Herndon, VA: MBO Partners, 2016
- 57. 57 What remains to be solved? [a lot]
- 58. 58 How will we train the next generation of leaders… …if they aren’t in the office to do trust falls?
- 59. 59 How will leaders create culture… …when employees aren’t together 40 hours per week?
- 60. 60 How will external validation evolve to ensure career progression… …if more and more people work independently?
- 61. 61 How will companies provide benefits and incentives… …if “employee” becomes a more-fluid term?
- 62. 62 What will we do with all that office space?
- 63. 63 What will we do with all that office space?
- 65. of executives believe that most great people, ideas, and capabilities lie outside the walls of their company 84% (Catalant 2016 CHRO Survey))
- 66. 40% of U.S. companies can’t fill the positions they need (McKinsey Global Institute) $10 trillion in GDP will be lost because companies cannot fill the jobs available (Boston Consulting Group)
- 67. of executives believe their company needs to evolve its approach to work format and people management to be successful in the future (Catalant 2016 CHRO Survey) 75%
- 68. In this workplace of the future, there will be little difference between “us” in-house employees and "them”, independent experts. We will both be working together to solve business problems through collective intellect. -Future of Work thought leadership forum
- 69. Optional Gone Ticket Cost Traditional Airline Spirit unbundled air travel
- 70. We Are Unbundling Consulting Training & recruiting Travel expenses Brand Partner time Firm overhead Required labor Training & recruiting Travel expenses Brand Partner time Firm overhead Required labor Project Cost Gone
- 71. 71 Let’s sum it up
- 72. 72 We are likely living in the next period of massive change
- 73. 73 Where there is massive change… …there is massive opportunity
- 74. 74 Enormous winners will be created Andrew Carnegie Henry Ford ??? Andy Grove Bill Gates ??? Wikipedia.org
- 75. 75 Where do you fit in?
Notes de l'éditeur
- More than ½ of the US population lives in one of 48 ‘urban areas’; 2010; http://www.citylab.com/housing/2012/03/us-urban-population-what-does-urban-really-mean/1589/
- US spends ~$38B per year on office construction (2013); https://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf
- Average commute time in US is 26 minutes each way (2014), up from 22 minutes in 1985, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/25/how-much-of-your-life-youre-wasting-on-your-commute/
- 52% of employed Americans work for the largest 0.3% of companies (2013), up from 47% in 1993 and 49% in 2003; Census: SUSB
- Work hasn’t always meant what it means today Work won’t always mean what it means today
- with little use for defined occupations; Starting to go full circle – people moving again
- The first occupations are born: warrior, priest, craftsman, farmer
- Jamestown was formed in 1607 and the Plymouth company was founded in 1620 10 slowest growing states since 1900 are mostly traditional farming states: Nebraska, Vermont, Maine, West Virginia, Mississippi, Missouri, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, South Dakota --- http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004986.html
- Technological innovations sew the seeds of a new American economy Samuel Slater opens America’s first cotton factory (1790), utilizing (stolen) IP to replicate cotton spinners utilized in England Eli Whitney’s cotton gin (1793) leads to larger plantations (and more slave labor). Cotton becomes America’s leading export by mid-century Eli Whitney’s interchangeable parts (1798) leads to dramatic improvements in manufacturing. Factories of many types spring up over following decades Frances Cabot Lowell, Nathan Appleton And Patrick Johnson form The Boston Manufacturing Company (1813) and build America's first integrated textile factory. Young, unmarried women move from New England farms into the mills (“Mill Girls”). Other corporations follow suit http://www.ushistory.org/us/25d.asp
- “Technological revolution” --- Rapid industrialization driven by dramatic technological improvements in metals, electricity, machining, chemicals, auto manufacturing, marine, and more Transcontinental Railroad completed (1869), connecting the coasts and accelerating business and trade JP Morgan and Charles Schwab conspire to buy Carnegie Steel (1901), valuing the newly formed entity at $1.4 billion upon its launch (first billion dollar corporation) In 1924 2 million T-Fords were produced and retailed $290 each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution
- “Digital revolution” --- Invention, production, and widespread adoption of computing technologies rapidly transforms the way we live and work And yet…not much in terms of our daily work lives changed --- still go to work, face to face, commute, etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Revolution
- Note from report: Independents are adult Americans of all ages, skill, and income levels who turn to consulting, freelancing, contract work, temporary assignments or on-call work regularly each week for income, opportunity and satisfaction; includes full time and part time If you add “occasional independents, the 2021 number will be 49 million, just over 40% of the non-farm workforce By 2021, nearly half of the population (48%) will be independent or have tried independent work in their lifetime --- https://www.mbopartners.com/state-of-independence ~44M in total contingent workforce, accounting for temps -- MeasuringGigEconomy_1609.pdf – staffingindustry.com Schedule C employment now >16% of US employment versus ~13% in 2000 (was steady ’92-00) http://www.sole-jole.org/16375.pdf
- 29% of US workers did gig work in 2015 --- MeasuringGigEconomy_1609.pdf – staffingindustry.com
- Already the largest generation. By 2024, Millennials and Gen Z will be more than half.
- Note: Millennials have not yet actually changed jobs more frequently than previous generations, potentially driven by many of them entering the workforce during a recession http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/enough-already-about-the-job-hopping-millennials/
- Note: 2 ways to show jobs, on this page and next. This page shows jobs by industry. The following page shows jobs by occupation. % are of total in 2000 Manu = 4M jobs lost; ed and health, prof and biz services, and hosp = 12M gained
- Note: 2 ways to show jobs, on prior page and this one. This page shows jobs by occupation. The prior page shows jobs by industry. % are of total in 1996 Just lost = 3M; jobs gained =17M
- and more than 2x penetration in 2008
- 5G expected in 2020; top speed on 4G is 1 Gbps
- South Korea, Norway, Sweden, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Latvia, Japan, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Finland,, Denmark, Singapore, Romania, Bulgaria Note: Akamai ranks US #16, but I can’t find any country ranked 11th in their list
- ~300 million users http://fortune.com/2015/09/21/skype-users-unable-calls/ http://cloudtweaks.com/2015/03/15-cloud-based-video-conferencing-services-start-ups-enterprises/
- Disconnecting physical office space (i.e., file cabinets)
- Google Drive, Box, Microsoft OneDrive, Dropbox
- Total enrollment has actually fallen slightly Note: 2 data sets here that don’t match; we used the 2014 number from one data set and estimated 2002 based on the ratio of data in 2012 (both data sets have 2012)
- Also good stats on why working remotely is better - https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/279869 103% increase in employees telecommuting full time ’05-15
- ~$800B in spend on contingent labor in US in 2015 (same source);
- World Economic Forum Quote - Dunne, Nialle. "How Technology Will Change the Future of Work." February 24, 2016. Accessed August 9, 2016. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/the-future-of-work/. IBM – Utilizes its “Blue Talent Cloud: A cloud platform that matches remote workers to short term assignments [and] external temporary reployment: temporarily assigns IBMers to an opening with external partners or clients”. Also, 68% f their employeeswork remotely (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-flexible-companies-in-america-2015-5) Dell - Mohammed Chahdi, Dell's global director of HR services, stated that "We're pushing a culture where it just doesn't matter. Your location simply doesn't matter anymore,” http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/09/pf/dell-work-from-home/ Apple – Hires ”at home advisors” – customer service to work from home rather than staffing people in typical call centers. This is a win-win as they will now safe on office space Amazon – Has a large portion of “virtual location” jobs where employees can work from whereever they want – currently there are 193 jobs listed wher eyou can work virutally listed https://www.amazon.jobs/en/locations/virtual-locations?base_query=&loc_query=&job_count=10&result_limit=10&sort=relevant&location%5B%5D=virtual-locations&cache Deloitte – Provides employees with 16 weeks caregiver leave – this is a new wave of flexibiliyt Cisco – 74% of workers work remotely – which is the highest of any companies mentioned and a new precident http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-flexible-companies-in-america-2015-5 Kraft – Uses a program called Fast Adapts which allows workers to “swap shifts, take single-day vacations, and request job-sharing arrangements, pending the approval of their plant manager or supervisor. It also allows plants to utilize retirees to cover shifts for employees out on leave, on vacation or out with extended illnesses. KPMG – Supports “job sharing” and “glide hours” in addition to working from home Job sharing: where two employees share the duties and responsibilities of one full-time job”. “Glide time means working core hours (10:00am to 4:00pm) but starting work between 8:00-10:00am and finishing between 4:00-6:00pm. (https://www.kpmgcareers.co.uk/who-we-are/work-life-balance) “
- Note: have not
- 84 percent of CHROs believe that great people, ideas, and capabilities lay outside the walls of their company (Source: CT CHRO Survey) Growing Millenials want more flexible way of working Retiree networks may not want to be in office but still want to stay connected ”Mckinsie Moms” looking for a work/life balance Transition: But most companies aren’t prepared to access this new on-demand workforce
- The struggle is real: Forty percent of U.S. companies can’t fill the positions they need, estimates the McKinsey Global Institute And if this continues, $10 trillion in GDP will be lost because companies cannot fill the jobs available.
- We don’t have to tell you, you already know that your approach needs to change. 75 percent of CHROs believe that their company needs to evolve its approach to work format and people management to be successful in the future (Source: CT CHRO survey) Transition: What does that future look like?
- Stat: http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/connecting-talent-with-opportunity-in-the-digital-age Title: The emergence of the on-demand platform Luckily for us, technology and online marketplaces are continuously evolving to help us connect the right people with the right things. Digital Marketplaces for Services – Amazon is connecting people with products and services on demand, Uber cars with individuals, Linked in – Resumes with recruiters, Air bnb, Hosts with guests/travellers And these are just a few examples of the way this on demand economy works. Transition: So how can you take advantage of this? Online talent platforms can ease a number of these dysfunctions by more effectively connecting individuals with work opportunities. They include websites (such as Monster.com and LinkedIn) that aggregate individual resumes with job postings from traditional employers as well as the rapidly growing number of digital marketplaces for services, such as Uber and Upwork. Even if these platforms touch only a fraction of the global workforce, they can generate significant benefits for economies and for individuals. While their growth and adoption has been dramatic, they are still evolving in terms of capabilities and potential.
- Carnegie – fortune in railroads and steel, aided by adopting and adapting Bessemer process for steel; richest man in America in 1901 --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Carnegie Ford – production line; also introduced 5 day work week - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Ford Andy Grove – microprocessor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Grove Gates – operating system -