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CONFIDENTIAL
Robots In Retail
March 2018
1
CONFIDENTIAL
▪ In the following slides, we have synthesized our views on the key themes in Robots in Retail
▪ ComCap is a premier boutique investment bank focused on the intersection of commerce and capital, with key focus
on B2B SaaS, B2C ecommerce (DNVBs, beauty, health, and wellness), B2B services for retail technologies (IT and
marketing services, in-store, fulfillment, logistics, call center, analytics, personalization), payments, mobile
commerce and marketplaces
▪ Headquartered in San Francisco with an office in Singapore, our firm works with mid-cap public companies on
buyside initiatives and public and private growth companies on financing and strategic M&A
▪ In addition to being the only boutique focused on disruptive commerce models, we differentiate by:
‒ Bringing bulge bracket techniques to emerging models;
‒ A strong and uncommon buyside/strategy practice;
‒ Deep understanding of industry drivers and synergy analyses;
‒ Deep relationships across the sector; and
‒ Worldwide coverage with closed transactions in the United States, Japan, China, the ASEAN region, Western
and Eastern Europe and Latin America
▪ If you'd like to connect with us over the phone and / or meet in person to be included in this report or to discuss your
strategic initiatives, please contact us:
We are pleased to present our 2018 Robots in Retail overview
2
Aron Bohlig
Managing Partner
M: +1 415-235-8270
E: aron@comcapllc.com
Steve Terry
Managing Director
M: +1 415-971-3794
E: steve@comcapllc.com
Fermin Caro
Director
M: +1 650-743-7825
E: fermin@comcapllc.com
Swetha Vijay
Director
M: +65 9326-4726
E: swetha@comcapllc.com
Collin Rice
Associate
M: +1-612-578-7512
E: collin@comcapllc.com
Peter Creech
Analyst
M: +1-508-685-1620
E: peter@comcapllc.com
Carlos Gonzalez
Director
M: +7 915-413-1911
E: carlos@comcapllc.com
Chris Nealey
Analyst
M: +1-949-887-3846
E: chrisn@comcapllc.com
CONFIDENTIAL
ComCap’s current thematic focus areas
Theme Description Select companies
Robotics
Robotics is getting integrated into various aspects of supply chain and
retail
Personalization Emerging players in the ecommerce personalization space
Digitally Native Vertical
Brands (DNVBs)
D2C digitally native brands covering clothing, accessories, personal care,
home and kitchen, furniture, and other consumer-focused products.
Beauty, health and
wellness
Universe of beauty companies, including product manufacturers, retailers,
disruptors and new entrants.
Analytics
Focus on disruptors in the analytics space focused on ecommerce,
logistics, retail, predictive, payment, risk and marketing
Marketing Suites Emerging platforms in the digital marketing space
Mobile
Focused on mobile solution providers optimizing the mobile experience
from desktop-to-mobile website conversions, targeted mobile marketing, to
simplifying the mobile checkout experience.
Fintech
Retail and commerce-related disruptors in the fintech universe. Current
focus areas include payments, risk analytics, false declines and retail POS.
Outsourcing and service
providers
Companies that provide outsourcing and end-to-end ecommerce services,
such as contact centers, platform, marketing, photo services, logistics,
warehousing etc.
System Integrators
Focus on large SIs covering multiple platform as well as smaller SIs
covering just one or a handful of platforms.
Ecommerce SaaS Emerging and disruptive SaaS businesses in the ecommerce sector.
Other (IoT, SMB, POS)
We are constantly evaluating new themes and evolving our focus. Other
categories currently include logistics, shipping, IoT, and SMB.
3
CONFIDENTIAL
4
ComCap – Active in 14 countries, including 8 of the top 10 global
ecommerce markets
$1,208.3
$431.8
$121.4 $111.3 $76.5 $49.7 $46.6 $35.1 $24.7 $22.3
China US UK Japan Germany France South Korea Canada Brazil Australia
Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide – 2017 ($US bn)1
1Source: Content26 report
CONFIDENTIAL
ComCap’s perspectives on Robotics in retail is shared with large
number of financial and strategic investors
▪ ComCap’s perspectives on various industries, including robotics in retail, is being shared with our large network of
strategic and financial investors globally
▪ This facilitates a better understanding of sweet spots for these investors; and ultimately helps to better position a
mandated client with selected players
▪ Unique disruptors are gaining additional global coverage via ComCap’s reach
5
CONFIDENTIAL
Robotic disruptors are emerging across a wide range of sectors and applications, representing an
attractive investment opportunity for financial and strategic investors
Advancements in machine tech and AI has allowed robots to infiltrate retail
The value of robotics in logistics is well understood thanks to Amazon
The surge in AI is felt more strongly in retail than in almost any other sector, as
retailers fight rising wages, increasing competition, and constantly evolving customer
preferences
Increase in demand for humanoid robots in the retail industry
Major retailers are engaging with customers through new technologies, which
increasingly includes robotic automation as an alternative to human support
Robots are quickly becoming integrated into every aspect of the retail value chain
Technology and robotics are playing a strong role in consumers’ shopping behavior
5
4
7
1
2
3
6
8
6
Robotics in Retail – Key themes for 2018
CONFIDENTIAL
7
Commercial robotics market is expected to reach $22.8bn by 2025
• Private investment in the robotic space has continued to amaze with exponential year-over-year
funding curves and sensational billion dollar acquisitions
• Prices continue to fall on robots, sensors, CPUs and communications while capabilities continue to
increase
• Robot programming is being transformed by easier interfaces, GUIs and ROS
1
0.9
1.7
3.2
5.9
10.8
17.0
0.9
1.7
3.2
5.0
12.2
22.8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
2014 estimate 2017 estimate
13.6%
CAGR 2000-2025
(2017 est.)
Size of the commercial robotics market, 2000-2025 ($ billions)
Source: The Robot Report
CONFIDENTIAL
8
Robots are in fertile territory for adoption – and investment
▪ AI paired with robotics: the 4th industrial
revolution
− 1st: Steam engine
− 2nd: Mechanization of assembly lines
− 3rd: Computers and automation
− 4th: Connected, mobile, intelligent robots
working their way into our daily lives
▪ Pepper, a retail oriented robot from Aldeberan
and SoftBank, sold out its initial production
offering of 1,000 units with a $1,600 price tag
in just one minute
▪ The global robotics market is anticipated to
grow to more than $44.5 billion by the end of
this decade – up from $28.3 billion in 2013
▪ 10 billion euros - the size of the android robot
market in 2025
▪ -26% - the annual reduction in the cost of
manufacturing robots able to interact with
humans
Spending on robots is set to increase 3-5 fold in 10 years
Sales of robots (in USD billions; 2013-2025; excluding military)
22
12
18
2025
16
6
8
2020
124
3
2015
9
4
2
2013
52
30
19
15
CAGR
+10.6%
Industrial Professional Personal
1
Source: Robots and retail report by Roland Berger dated October 2016
CONFIDENTIAL
9
The robotic sphere of control
Fully automated
AI makes decisions
for all tasks without
human oversight
Highly automated
AI decisions and
actions for routine
tasks without
human approval
Assisted
Humans make
decisions with the
help of algorithms
and AI
recommendations
Semi-automated
Humans confirm
and approve AI
decisions before
action is taken
Manual
Decisions made by
humans, machines
assist physically
Robots come in varying shapes, sizes, and most importantly, “Intelligence”
▪ Additional capabilities that solve problems and perform
basic work activities
▪ Ability to:
− Understand natural language
− Interpret unstructured data such as emails and social
media content
− Learn new knowledge by either watching a human
solve problems or by consuming additional data.
▪ Can utilize years of experience gained across multiple
organizations
▪ Can completely transform back-office processes
▪ Cognitive software mimics human activity, such as
perceiving, inferring, gathering evidence, hypothesizing
and reasoning
▪ Taught rather than programmed
▪ Continues to learn and solve problems within area of
interest
▪ Ability to ingest massive amounts of data that a human
brain lacks the time or capacity to handle
▪ When combined with advanced automation, systems can
be trained to exercise judgement when performing tasks
▪ Automation of the rudimentary processes found in almost
all organizations
▪ Repetitive in nature
▪ Follows explicit steps
▪ Piecemeal approach to automation
Class 2 –
Enhanced
process
automation
Class 3 –
Autonomic /
cognitive
automation
Class 1 – Basic
process
automation
AI
Human
Control
1
CONFIDENTIAL
10
Amazon robotics case study
Robots have fueled growth - Amazon
has added 80,000 net human
employees since implementing
robotic technology, while still cutting
operational costs as a % of revenue
Robotics are transforming business models in the retail and ecommerce industry – increasing inventory management
capabilities while reducing factory footprint, shipping time, and costs. No company highlights this better than Amazon.
In one of their biggest buyouts to
date, Amazon acquired Kiva
Systems in 2012 for $775 million
– now called Amazon Robotics
$775m
Amazon grew its robotic workforce
from 1,000 units in 2013 to over
100,000 robots in their warehouses
and distribution centers around the
globe in 2017
Automation has enabled Amazon
to speed up customer delivery
times and cut operating costs as
much as 20 percent per
warehouse
20%
100,000
80,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
# of robots employed by Amazon
2
Amazon gained a first-mover
advantage in 2012 when it bought
Kiva Systems, which makes
robots for warehouses
Once a Kiva customer, Amazon
acquired the robot maker to
improve the productivity and
margins of its network of
warehouses and fulfilment
centres
The move helped Amazon
maintain its low costs and
expand its rapid delivery
capabilities
It took five years for a Kiva
alternative to hit the market. By
then, Amazon had a jump on its
rivals and had developed an
experienced robotics team,
giving the company a sustainable
edge
Source: ARK Invest research report, 2015
CONFIDENTIAL
11
Amazon (Kiva Systems) has ignited the AGV industry
• Autonomous Guided Vehicles (AGV) industry is expected to represent $10bn market by 2025.
• AGVs are mobile robots used in manufacturing and other commercial industries to improve logistics efficiencies by
transporting goods and other materials autonomously
• In 2017, it was reported that pricing on AGVs has come down significantly over the last 5 years, which has been a
catalyst for the industry. It varies from $35-$50K (not including supporting software and services)
• Amazon sparked the AGV industry by acquiring Kiva systems for $775m
– The company had no plans to sell the robots externally
– Planned to use the robots internally to improve logistics efficiencies within their fulfilment centres, which created a
significant supply / demand imbalance and a massive opportunity for other companies to enter the space
– Amazon has deployed 15K mobile robots annually since 2014, and currently it has over 45K robots in operation
throughout 20 fulfilment centres
2
Units sold and Year-on-Year % change
19,000 33,250 49,875
69,825
97,755 127,082
165,206
206,507
258,134
309,761
371,713
50.20%
75.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
25.0% 25.0%
20.0% 20.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Units sold YoY growth
Source: Loup Ventures
CONFIDENTIAL
12
The automated guided vehicle's market value is expected to grow
at a CAGR of 29.4% from 2015 to 2025
2
0.8
1.3
1.9
2.5
3.3 4.1
5.2
6.3
7.6
8.8
10.3
52.0%
66.7%
42.3%
33.5%
34.4%
24.7%
25.1%
20.7% 20.8%
16.4% 16.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Market value YoY growth
Market Value ($bn)
Average Selling Price ($)
$41,000
$38,950
$37,100 $35,430 $33,925 $32,568 $31,346 $30,249 $29,266 $28,388 $27,607
1.2%
-5.0%
-4.7%
-4.5%
-4.2% -4.0%
-3.8%
-3.5%
-3.2% -3.0%
-2.8%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
ASPs YoY growth
Source: Loup Ventures
CONFIDENTIAL
13
Competitive landscape has intensified and no company has a
leading position in the market
2
Many start-ups and legacy robot manufacturers have entered the AGV space
By 2025, the
AGV market is
expected to
represent
largest
commercial
robot markets
in the world
Fastest growing
sub-markets
within the entire
robotics space.
The AGV
market will
grow 43% in
2017 to $1.9bn
Increasing
competition and
lower robotics
components will
lead to decline in
costs for AGVs
By 2025, the
industry will
deploy over
371K units
annually,
representing a
35% CAGR
The AGV market
will eclipse
$10bn by 2025,
growing 29% on
a CAGR basis
from 2015 –
2025
Source: Loup Ventures
CONFIDENTIAL
Robots’ role in the fight against declining margins
Gross Margin Analysis
14
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
28.0%
30.0%
32.0%
34.0%
36.0%
38.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Amazon Amazon excl. AWS revenue
Walmart Target
Best Buy Nordstrom
As major retailers fight rising wages, increasing
competition, and falling margins, many attribute
Amazon’s margin improvement at least partially to its
investment in automation
Meanwhile, two of the largest costs to retailers are:
…which are entirely non-value add, and can be reduced via
automation
It is also estimated that sales staff spend up to 30% of their time
on back-office tasks
Robots:
- Eliminate repetitive back-office tasks
- Enable employees to focus on relationship-building with
clientele
- Help to retain more skilled employees
- Reduce expensive overtime, part-time, and turnover costs
The nearly-billion dollar acquisition is paying dividends for
Amazon
- The company claims to pay its warehouse workers 30% more
than the national average, while it is on a red-hot run
increasing its gross margin
Overtime Employee Turnover
Online and brick and mortar retail companies are facing
significant threats to margins in the form of:
Declining
Traffic to
Stores
3
Wage
Inflation
The
Affordable
Care Act
CONFIDENTIAL
Amazon’s growth and efficiency (driven by AI and automation) are
key to the strong performance of the stock
15
3
• If the current industry trends continue through the end of the year, the number of employees in Amazon-related retail
will decline by about 1% year-over-year
✓ The number of job losses would be 170,000, representing first decline since 2009
▪ Amazon’s employment increases won’t be enough to cover the losses in the rest of the industry
✓ Amazon will maintain its current y-o-y headcount growth rate and will add 146,000 employees worldwide in 2017, a
43% increase
✓ In spite of this aggressive growth, the combined employment at Amazon and Amazon-related retail would still
decline by 24,000
▪ Amazon has already added 55,000 robots by the end of 3Q 2017 and its growth rate is accelerating. The
company stated it had 45,000 robots at the end of 2016, added 35,000 robots by the end of the 1H17, and then
another 20,000 in the 3Q17. Researchers assume 20,000 in the fourth quarter for a total of 75,000 new robots
in 2017.
2
42
-170
77
111
146
79
153
-24
30 15
75
109
168
51
2015 2016 2017
Amazon-related retail employees* Amazon employees Total employees
Amazon robots Amazon employees + robots
Employees (in ‘000)
Note: * Amazon employees working in retail that Amazon competes with, such as bookstores
Source: Quartz Media Article dated December 4, 2017
CONFIDENTIAL
16
What is the new retail robotic army capable of?
Goods management
Front office and customer
experience
Customer services
merchandise
Customer path analysis
Applications
▪ Inventory robots
▪ Stock control robots
▪ Surveillance
▪ Customer greeting and
entertainment
▪ Product information and
demonstration
▪ Promotion
▪ Augmented virtual reality
▪ Product picking
▪ Automatic payment
▪ Virtual queue
▪ Product delivery
▪ Customer count
▪ Trajectory analysis
▪ Conversion rate
analysis
▪ Behavior and emotion
analysis
Quantified impact
▪ Optimization of inventory
costs
▪ Optimization of shrinkage
linked to administrative
errors
▪ +10% to 30% periodic
store traffic
Hointer
▪ -50% personnel costs
▪ Sales area 5 times smaller
▪ 3 times more items tried on
RetailNext
▪ +10% capture rate
Case Study
Simbe Robotics’ “Tally”
walks Target’s store aisles
and takes stock levels,
creating reports and even
reordering inventory
More than 140 SoftBank
Mobile stores in Japan are
using Pepper as a new way
of welcoming, informing and
amusing their customers
In Hointer’s clothing store,
shoppers can scan an item,
choose a size, and within
seconds the item is delivered
to the fitting room via a robotic
cable system. Merchandise
can be purchased on the spot.
A large retailer used
RetailNext to understand
the performance of an
apparel fixture, resulting in
new strategies that
increased engagement
and sales.
4
CONFIDENTIAL
17
Robots applicability increasing in the retail industry4
In-Store Customer Service
• Lowe’s launched LoweBot in
2016
✓ Customers can ask queries as
well as locate objects within the
store
• Target has also tested a robot
called Tally, built by Simbe
Robotics, to keep track of product
inventory on its shelves
✓ Focuses specifically on
monitoring inventory levels and
the pricing of products within
stores
✓ Uses visual recognition
software to recognize when a
product’s inventory is low
Using robots to manage
stores like warehouses
• BestBuy had collaborated with
PaR Systems to launch Chloe, an
automated system that retrieves
products from shelves
✓ Allows to use vertical space
more efficiently and to simplify
complex customer
requirements, by easily selling
items that are locked behind
glass
✓ It allows customers to pick up
the required merchandise
✓ It allow customers make
purchases without the need for
an employee
Bringing the store to the
customer
• In 2016, Domino’s introduced a
driverless vehicle, the Domino’s
Robotic Unit (DRU), in Australia
to deliver its pizzas
✓ It was based on the idea to use
GPS data Domino’s gathered
over the years from its human
drivers, and combine that with
an automated vehicle to make
delivery rounds
✓ Partnered with Starship
Technologies, to put robots in
service for its European
markets
CONFIDENTIAL
18
Social Robots assist in store operations4
Customer Services
Handle consumer complaints and fetch
specific products for shoppers
Retrieving Items
Fetch products and give them straight to
the customer in store
Warehouse and Factory Staff
Create and organise goods
Used as a unique selling point
Couriers
Deliver products at the customer door-
step
Stock Managers
Stacking & checking shelves
Proper placement and pricing of the
product
Logistics and Delivery
Support order picking & packaging
processes and the transport of
merchandise
Payment Services
Personalised recommendations & offers,
assistance in checking out and paying
for items
Customer Feedback
Survey customers, to seek their opinions
and reviews to offer a better
understanding of customer perceptions
Meet and Greeter
Recognize customers and their needs
Check people in for service & connect
them to best available store associate
Source of entertainment
An excellent companion to play games
with to increase store engagement
CONFIDENTIAL
19
Robots are going Mainstream
Goods Management
Front office and customer
experience
Customer services /
merchandising
Robots are creating entirely new in-store experiences – for both the retailer and the customer
Businesses are recognizing the cost-saving efficiencies that automation brings, as well as the
improved consumer experience that AI and advanced robotics can provide
5
CONFIDENTIAL
20
Retailers either adapt to the new technological changes or die5
Retailers Robots strategy
• Walmart is testing Bossa Nova autonomous service robots
• In November 2017, the company announced plans to test its robots and data services in 50 Walmart
stores across the US. Initially, it tested these robots in a small number of stores
• The robot travels through the store looking for items that are out of stock, missing labels and
incorrect price tags
• The robots also need to be set up to navigate a variety of store layouts. The systems use vision light
technology to scan the shelves and capture the necessary data
• Schnuck Markets tested the Tally robot from Simbe Robotics in three locations in 2017, and
planned to implement the next phase of testing in 2018
• The robots work in conjunction with employees, capturing high-quality imagery of the store
shelves they can use to more efficiently perform their jobs
• It uses computer vision to identify key insights, including if a product is in the right place
• Uses advanced computer vision technology to deconstruct what it sees on the shelf, and can identify
every shelf tag or price tag
• Implemented a robot from Fellow Robots into one of its stores
• The system performs inventory management duties but also has another function: interacting
with customers
• Directs the customers to the product and offer details regarding the product
• Customers can also ask questions about a product
“As technology continues to evolve, more retailers will begin to adopt systems like these to help manage
inventory and perform other tasks. Those who don’t will likely get left behind…Now is the time to embrace
technology, and to learn what works best, whether that means adding automaton to warehouses or implementing
robots inside stores. There are various technologies available to help make retailers more efficient and there are more
on the horizon.”
Bob Graham, Chief Information Officer and SVP, BevMo!
CONFIDENTIAL
21
Robots in retail is of current paramount importance
“Most of the retailers we spoke to were positive
about the use of humanoid robotics in their stores –
for some of the forward-thinking brands, it was very
much on their radar. Robots are one way that
retailers can offer a personalised, seamless
service that very much feels like an extension of
how we already run our lives digitally via our
smartphones. Robots can offer a valuable
touchpoint for retailers where in-store friction –
such as queuing or trying to find something – is
eliminated, and the number of customers who leave
a store without their details being captured is better
managed.”
-Brian Chung, Head of Global Solutions
Marketing, SAP
“Exploring the latest technologies is no longer a nice-
to-have but a must-have for any businesses
expecting to drive sales and improve their
customer experience”
- Patrick Munden, Global Head of Marketing
and Retail at Salmon, PR dated May 3, 2017
“Something that is working really well in all
supermarkets is the self-checkout model – not only
does it alleviate the need for some staff, but it also
helps to prevent long queues and is a far more cost-
effective way to manage a store”
- Zelman Ainsworth, Retail Director, CBRE,
PR dated January 26, 2018
“The robots are among us…A lot of people are going
to come in contact with robots in the next two to
five years.”
- Steve Jurvetson, a Silicon Valley investor,
PR dated May 2016
“69% of businesses plan to invest in robots over
the next five years in order to drive sales and
boost consumer engagement, according to a
report by Salmon…
…The survey of business owners’ attitudes to tech
revealed that 61% are currently investing in Internet
of Things (IoT) enablement, with 53% looking
towards the rise in popularity of voice control tech as
an area of opportunity”
- Shane Donnelly, PR dated May 3, 2017
5
CONFIDENTIAL
22
Increase in demand for humanoid robots in the retail industry
0.6
4.4
2018 2023
Humanoid robot market (In $bn)
CAGR: 49.0%
• The main use of humanoid robots is to greet & advise
customers and present & demonstrate products in retail
outlets
✓ Greetings involve features such as being able to
welcome visitors in different languages, particularly
valuable for companies that have a global presence
✓ Advise customers on selection of products based on
the gender, the age and the mood of the customer
• Humanoid robots answer the well-identified customer
requirements in the retail industry while they improve the
customer experience
• Once customers feel welcome, robots can give them
general information related to the store or their day
experience
• It helps to gather consumer data such as gender, phone
numbers, zip codes, email addresses, habits, and service
feedback that help stores in serving their customers
efficiently
• It enable a brand to offer a self-service experience, by
checking in at-locations
• It also offer check-out payments and represent a way to
entertain customers to offer them an extraordinary
experience
• Offer a more customized and fulfilling experience to
customers
• Key factors driving the global humanoid robots market:
✓ Rise in demand for humanoid robots from the retail
industry
✓ Increase in usage of humanoid robots in education
and research purposes
✓ Significant technological advancements in robotics
• For example:
✓ In September 2017, Sprint Corporation, a US-based
telecommunication service provider, announced the
implementation of Pepper, a humanoid robot
developed by SoftBank Robotics Corp. in its retail
outlets.
Source: SoftBank Robotics
6
CONFIDENTIAL
23
Humanoid robots answer to the well-identified requirements
Advice
Greeting
Entertainment
Presentation
Information
Emotion
Detection
Self-servicei
Robots can also be included as a part of a whole
ecosystem
The fast development of both artificial intelligence and
machine learning could undoubtedly change the
game over the few years
Humanoid robots gives a positive and futuristic image
to a brand
Humanoid robots represent an initial investment for
operational optimization
6
CONFIDENTIAL
Technology and robotics are playing a strong role in consumers’
shopping behavior
6
7
Humanoid robots Autonomous retail robots The checkout free-tech The courier robots
Focus areas
▪ Pulls temporary crowds to
welcome, inform and
amuse clients
▪ Customer interaction,
customer engagement and
customer experience
▪ Can be connected to
inventory database and
CRM system
▪ Shelf scanning and auditing
▪ Inventory monitoring
▪ Retrieve data and to
identify patterns for better
decision making
▪ Manages back-end task
▪ Simplify the process of
searching the product
▪ Improves speed and
convenience for customers to
create a frictionless sales
experience
▪ No lines or cashiers
▪ The virtual cart keeps track
when products are taken from
or returned to the shelves
▪ Deliver packages
straight to customers’
front door
▪ Mainly used to deliver
packages, groceries
and food products
▪ Offer enhanced
tracking and
scheduling capabilities
Future scope
▪ Restaurants and retail
outlets are plugging the gap
▪ Service robots industry is
expanding rapidly and is
becoming productivity
platform
▪ Might shake up the declining
influence of bricks-and-mortar
stores and retailers may
rethinking ways to innovate
their store
▪ Intensifying
competition as large
number of players are
entering the space
Examples
Pepper, the humanoid robot,
in retail to increase sales,
innovate the customer
experience and provide real-
time business analytics
Tally helps with shelf-auditing
and analytics solution
LoweBot assist in finding
products in multiple languages
and assist in navigation
Amazon Go established a brick-
and-mortar grocery store offering
Just Walk Out Shopping
experience. It is a high tech
version of a 7-Eleven and the first
store is established in2018
Starship technologies
has developed robots for
Tesco, Pronto and Just
Eat. Amazon continues to
explore a drone delivery
army of its own
CONFIDENTIAL
By the numbers: Parabolic growth in the robotics industry
128
Robotics Companies
Funded in 2016
$1.95bn
Capital Committed in 2016
(50% more than 2015)
40%
of robotics startups are in
the consumer/retail sector
44%
of customers actively choose
to visit stores using
experience enhancing-technologies
Major Investors
8
8
CONFIDENTIAL
The overlords: Companies leading robotic revolution
From Office &
Customer
Experience
Customer
Services &
Merchandising
Robotics
Software for
Retail Analytics
Goods
Management
6
8
CONFIDENTIAL
27
`
TotalCapitalRaised
$50m
$10m
$25m
$75m
$100m+
$5m
Source: PitchBook, CrunchBase
Unknown
Funding
amount
`
Retail robotics fundraising / M&A
Goods Management Front Office &
Customer Experience
Customer Services &
Merchandising
Robotic Software for
Retail Analytics
Denotes M&A
8
CONFIDENTIAL
28
Retail robotics: Goods management
Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation
Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase
2014 San Jose, CA 101-250 $48.0m Robotic solutionsFetch
Robotics
2005 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $41.7m
Service robots to
automate on-shelf
inventory data
Bossa Nova
Robotics
2014 Wilmington, MA 11-50 $33.0m
Manufactures
autonomous, mobile
robots
Locus
Robotics
2003 North Reading, MA 501-1,000 $18.2m
Order fulfillment
solutions
Amazon
Robotics
2012 Pittsburgh, PA 1-10 $0.9m
Mobile picking
robots
Iam
Robotics
2004 Barcelona, Spain 11-50 NA Biped humanoid robots
Pal Robotics
2014 San Francisco, CA 11-50 NA An autonomous robotic
shelf auditing and analytics
solution
Simbe Robotics
2001 Ilmenau, Germany 11-50 NA Mobile service robotsMetraLabs mobile
robotics
2005 Andover, MA 501-1,000 $6.4m
Third-party logistics
provider
Quiet
Logistics
2009 Gurgaon, India 251-500 $39.5m
Designs, manufactures
and deploys advanced
robotics systems
Grey Orange
Robotics
8
CONFIDENTIAL
29
Retail robotics: Front office & customer experience
Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation
Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase
2007 San Francisco, CA 1-10 NA Build and develop
robots
RobotLAB
2016 Rouen, France 1-10 NA
Engaged in design
of robotsEvent Bots
2005 London, UK 1-10 N/A
Develops art robotics
and AI products
BotsAndUs
8
CONFIDENTIAL
30
Retail robotics: Customer services & merchandising
Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation
Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase
2013 San Jose, CA 11-50 $17.0m
Autonomous delivery
robots
Savioke
2014 San Francisco, CA 101-250 $17.2m Self-driving delivery
robots
Starship
Technologies
2013 Redwood city, CA 51-100 $55.3m Crowd Security
Intelligence platform
Synack
2013 Palo Alto, CA 11-50 $15.0m Automated fulfillment
system
HDS Global
2015 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $14.0m An autonomous delivery
cart
Dispatch
2015 Tel Aviv, Israel 11-50 $6.0m Builds a supply chainCommonSense
Robotics
NA Palo Alto, CA 1-10 NA Manufactures robots
that produce frozen
confections
Frobot
2007 Viljandi, Estonia 11-50 NA Automated parcel
delivery solutions
Cleveron
2015 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $4.2m Offers technology for
physical retailers
Oak Labs
2013 Reno, NV 11-50 $16.1m
Provides drone delivery
services for urgent
medical supplies, online
retail, and food delivery
Flirtey
8
CONFIDENTIAL
31
Retail robotics: Customer services & merchandising
Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation
Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase
2016 Villeurbanne,
France
1-10 NA Robot kioskHEASE
Robotics
2016 London, UK 11-50 NA
Autonomous robots
for marketing and
product distribution
Mio
Technologies
2011 Mountain View, CA 11-50 NA Retail Technology,
Robotics
Fellow
Robots
2013 Toronto, Canada 11-50 NA Robotic kiosksteaBOT
2012 Seattle, WA 11-50 NA Transforms physical
store into a micro
warehouse
Hointer
8
CONFIDENTIAL
32
Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation
Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase
Retail robotics: Robotic software for retail analytics
2007 San Jose, CA 101-250 $184.0m
In-store customer
engagement
RetailNext
2010 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $43.6m Develop solutions to
improve in-store
experience
Euclid
Analytics
2012 Philadelphia, PA 11-50
$2.6m
Allows robots to navigate
retail store floors, managing
inventory, ensuring
planogram and promotional
compliance
COSY
2016 Pittsburgh, PA 11-50 $0.9m A 3D computer vision
system
CapSen
Robotics
2012 Norcross, GA 51-200 $67.7m
retail in-store
analytics software,
platform, and
sensors
Nomi
8
CONFIDENTIAL
33
Most active investors in robotic investments
US financial investors remain the main source of capital for retail robotic investments
Investor Representative InvestmentsFund Overview
HQ: Santa Clara, CA
Founded: 1991, Funds raised: $12.2bn
# of robotic investments: 5
Note: *Includes debt and equity Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase, CapitalIQ
HQ: Menlo Park, CA
Founded: 1995, Funds raised: $2.0bn
# of robotic investments: 4
HQ: Menlo Park, CA
Founded: 2004, Funds raised: $1.0+bn
# of robotic investments: 4
HQ: San Francisco, CA
Founded: 2015, Funds raised: $967mn
# of robotic investments: 3
HQ: Alexandria, VA
Founded: 1989, Funds raised: $3.0bn
# of robotic investments: 3
HQ: San Francisco, CA
Founded: 2005, Funds raised: na
# of robotic investments: 3
HQ: New York, NY
Founded: 1999, Funds raised: $400mn+
# of robotic investments: 3
HQ: San Mateo, CA
Founded: 1983, Funds raised: na
# of robotic investments: 3
HQ: Palo Alto, CA
Founded: 2005, Funds raised: $1bn
# of robotic investments: 3
HQ: San Francisco, CA
Founded: 2012, Funds raised: na
# of robotic investments: 3
HQ: Newton Center, MA
Founded: 1999, Funds raised: $600mn
# of robotic investments: 2
1 round
each
2 rounds
4 rounds
3 rounds 1 round
1 round each
3 rounds
3 rounds
3 rounds
3 rounds
3 rounds
3 rounds
2 rounds
8
CONFIDENTIAL
34
Largest Robotics in retail funding rounds since 2016
US companies remain the main recipients of growth investment
InvestorsCompany Country Description Round Details
Source: Press releases, Crunchbase
Creator of service robots to
automate the collection and
analysis of on-shelf inventor data
Nov 2017
Series B: $17.5m
Cota Capital; Intel Capital; Lucas Venture
Group; Paxion Capital; Walden Riverwood
Ventures
Manufactures autonomous mobile
robot solutions for warehousing
and intralogistics markets
Dec 2017
Series B: $25.0m
SoftBank Capital, Shasta Ventures, Sway
Ventures, O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures
Provides an analytics platform to
improve customer traffic,
satisfaction, and loyalty
Jan 2016
Series C: $20.0m
Benchmark; Cox Enterprises; Gold Sky
Capital; Groupe Arnault; Harrison Metal
Capital; New Enterprise Associates
Online marketplace to buy and
sell second-hand products
Jan 2016
Debt: $15.0m
Horizon Technology Finance Corporation;
Horizon Technology Finance Management
Builds of self-driving delivery robots
to deliver goods locally. Its products
are used to deliver parcels,
groceries, and food
Dec 2016
Seed: $17.2m
Daimler AG; Grishin Robotics; Matrix
Partners; Morpheus Ventures; Playfair
Capital; Shasta Ventures; ZX Ventures
Develops autonomous delivery robots
that work in human environments to
improve people’s lives
Jan 2016
Series A: $15.0m
EDB Investments; Intel Capital; Northern
Light Venture Capital
An ecommerce service to shop
for groceries and general
merchandise
Aug 2017
Debt: $13.0m
I26 Capital Management, Toyota Motor
Corporation and Ingram Micro
A SaaS platform to leverage
retailers digital strategy by turning
online traffic into physical footfall
Oct 2016
Series A: $5.0m
Safeguard, Recruit, Forerunner Ventures,
Beanstalk Ventures, Advancit Capital,
Cowboy Ventures
An e-commerce fulfilment robotics
company
June 2017
Series B: $25.1m
Scale Venture Partners
Builds a supply-chain that allows
retailers to offer sustainable delivery
service to their online customers
Aug 2017
Series A: $6.0m
Aleph Venture Capital and Innovation
Endeavors
8
CONFIDENTIAL
Retail Robotics M&A activity
Robotics in retail continue to experience M&A activity by strategic and financial investors
Company DateIndustry Acquirers ValuationDescription
Electronic
equipment
Designs and manufactures
intelligent intralogistics and
materials handling solutions
Kion Group Implied EV: $3.3bn
EV / LTM Revenue: 1.8x
Jun 2016Dematic
Group
Front office &
customer
experience
Manufactures kindly and
interactive humanoid robots
SoftBank Corp
Implied EV: $95.3m
Acquired 80% stake and
15% later in 2015
Mar 2012Aldebaran
Robotics
Customer services
& merchandising
Develops intelligent
products and solutions for
the retail industry
Datalogic Scanning
Holdings
Implied EV: $25.5m
EV / LTM revenue: 5.0x
Jul 2010
Evolution
Robotics
Retail
Goods
management
Manufactures control systems,
robotics, software applications
for order fulfilment operations
Amazon.com Implied EV: $775.0m Mar 2012Kiva
Systems
Goods
management
Manufactures systems for
material handling,
packaging, and palletizing
Euroimpianti N/A Oct 2008C & D
Robotics
Robotic software for
retail
Manufactures
commercial robotic floor
care equipment
Sealed Air
Corporation
Implied EV: $18.0m Apr 2015Intellibot
Robotics
Goods
management
Offers automated material
handling solutions for
retailers, manufacturers, and
logistics providers
Honeywell Sensing
and Productivity
Solutions
Implied EV: $1.6bn Aug 2016Intelligrated
Customer Services
&
Merchandising
Specializes in
engineering intelligent
solutions
Pohlad Companies N/A Nov 2017PaR
Systems
Source: Press releases, Crunchbase, dealroom.co
35
Goods
management
Manufacturer and
integrator of innovative
robotic material handling
systems
Cimcorp Oy N/A Jul 2010RMT
Robotics
8

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Robots in retail key themes 2018

  • 2. CONFIDENTIAL ▪ In the following slides, we have synthesized our views on the key themes in Robots in Retail ▪ ComCap is a premier boutique investment bank focused on the intersection of commerce and capital, with key focus on B2B SaaS, B2C ecommerce (DNVBs, beauty, health, and wellness), B2B services for retail technologies (IT and marketing services, in-store, fulfillment, logistics, call center, analytics, personalization), payments, mobile commerce and marketplaces ▪ Headquartered in San Francisco with an office in Singapore, our firm works with mid-cap public companies on buyside initiatives and public and private growth companies on financing and strategic M&A ▪ In addition to being the only boutique focused on disruptive commerce models, we differentiate by: ‒ Bringing bulge bracket techniques to emerging models; ‒ A strong and uncommon buyside/strategy practice; ‒ Deep understanding of industry drivers and synergy analyses; ‒ Deep relationships across the sector; and ‒ Worldwide coverage with closed transactions in the United States, Japan, China, the ASEAN region, Western and Eastern Europe and Latin America ▪ If you'd like to connect with us over the phone and / or meet in person to be included in this report or to discuss your strategic initiatives, please contact us: We are pleased to present our 2018 Robots in Retail overview 2 Aron Bohlig Managing Partner M: +1 415-235-8270 E: aron@comcapllc.com Steve Terry Managing Director M: +1 415-971-3794 E: steve@comcapllc.com Fermin Caro Director M: +1 650-743-7825 E: fermin@comcapllc.com Swetha Vijay Director M: +65 9326-4726 E: swetha@comcapllc.com Collin Rice Associate M: +1-612-578-7512 E: collin@comcapllc.com Peter Creech Analyst M: +1-508-685-1620 E: peter@comcapllc.com Carlos Gonzalez Director M: +7 915-413-1911 E: carlos@comcapllc.com Chris Nealey Analyst M: +1-949-887-3846 E: chrisn@comcapllc.com
  • 3. CONFIDENTIAL ComCap’s current thematic focus areas Theme Description Select companies Robotics Robotics is getting integrated into various aspects of supply chain and retail Personalization Emerging players in the ecommerce personalization space Digitally Native Vertical Brands (DNVBs) D2C digitally native brands covering clothing, accessories, personal care, home and kitchen, furniture, and other consumer-focused products. Beauty, health and wellness Universe of beauty companies, including product manufacturers, retailers, disruptors and new entrants. Analytics Focus on disruptors in the analytics space focused on ecommerce, logistics, retail, predictive, payment, risk and marketing Marketing Suites Emerging platforms in the digital marketing space Mobile Focused on mobile solution providers optimizing the mobile experience from desktop-to-mobile website conversions, targeted mobile marketing, to simplifying the mobile checkout experience. Fintech Retail and commerce-related disruptors in the fintech universe. Current focus areas include payments, risk analytics, false declines and retail POS. Outsourcing and service providers Companies that provide outsourcing and end-to-end ecommerce services, such as contact centers, platform, marketing, photo services, logistics, warehousing etc. System Integrators Focus on large SIs covering multiple platform as well as smaller SIs covering just one or a handful of platforms. Ecommerce SaaS Emerging and disruptive SaaS businesses in the ecommerce sector. Other (IoT, SMB, POS) We are constantly evaluating new themes and evolving our focus. Other categories currently include logistics, shipping, IoT, and SMB. 3
  • 4. CONFIDENTIAL 4 ComCap – Active in 14 countries, including 8 of the top 10 global ecommerce markets $1,208.3 $431.8 $121.4 $111.3 $76.5 $49.7 $46.6 $35.1 $24.7 $22.3 China US UK Japan Germany France South Korea Canada Brazil Australia Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide – 2017 ($US bn)1 1Source: Content26 report
  • 5. CONFIDENTIAL ComCap’s perspectives on Robotics in retail is shared with large number of financial and strategic investors ▪ ComCap’s perspectives on various industries, including robotics in retail, is being shared with our large network of strategic and financial investors globally ▪ This facilitates a better understanding of sweet spots for these investors; and ultimately helps to better position a mandated client with selected players ▪ Unique disruptors are gaining additional global coverage via ComCap’s reach 5
  • 6. CONFIDENTIAL Robotic disruptors are emerging across a wide range of sectors and applications, representing an attractive investment opportunity for financial and strategic investors Advancements in machine tech and AI has allowed robots to infiltrate retail The value of robotics in logistics is well understood thanks to Amazon The surge in AI is felt more strongly in retail than in almost any other sector, as retailers fight rising wages, increasing competition, and constantly evolving customer preferences Increase in demand for humanoid robots in the retail industry Major retailers are engaging with customers through new technologies, which increasingly includes robotic automation as an alternative to human support Robots are quickly becoming integrated into every aspect of the retail value chain Technology and robotics are playing a strong role in consumers’ shopping behavior 5 4 7 1 2 3 6 8 6 Robotics in Retail – Key themes for 2018
  • 7. CONFIDENTIAL 7 Commercial robotics market is expected to reach $22.8bn by 2025 • Private investment in the robotic space has continued to amaze with exponential year-over-year funding curves and sensational billion dollar acquisitions • Prices continue to fall on robots, sensors, CPUs and communications while capabilities continue to increase • Robot programming is being transformed by easier interfaces, GUIs and ROS 1 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.9 10.8 17.0 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.0 12.2 22.8 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2014 estimate 2017 estimate 13.6% CAGR 2000-2025 (2017 est.) Size of the commercial robotics market, 2000-2025 ($ billions) Source: The Robot Report
  • 8. CONFIDENTIAL 8 Robots are in fertile territory for adoption – and investment ▪ AI paired with robotics: the 4th industrial revolution − 1st: Steam engine − 2nd: Mechanization of assembly lines − 3rd: Computers and automation − 4th: Connected, mobile, intelligent robots working their way into our daily lives ▪ Pepper, a retail oriented robot from Aldeberan and SoftBank, sold out its initial production offering of 1,000 units with a $1,600 price tag in just one minute ▪ The global robotics market is anticipated to grow to more than $44.5 billion by the end of this decade – up from $28.3 billion in 2013 ▪ 10 billion euros - the size of the android robot market in 2025 ▪ -26% - the annual reduction in the cost of manufacturing robots able to interact with humans Spending on robots is set to increase 3-5 fold in 10 years Sales of robots (in USD billions; 2013-2025; excluding military) 22 12 18 2025 16 6 8 2020 124 3 2015 9 4 2 2013 52 30 19 15 CAGR +10.6% Industrial Professional Personal 1 Source: Robots and retail report by Roland Berger dated October 2016
  • 9. CONFIDENTIAL 9 The robotic sphere of control Fully automated AI makes decisions for all tasks without human oversight Highly automated AI decisions and actions for routine tasks without human approval Assisted Humans make decisions with the help of algorithms and AI recommendations Semi-automated Humans confirm and approve AI decisions before action is taken Manual Decisions made by humans, machines assist physically Robots come in varying shapes, sizes, and most importantly, “Intelligence” ▪ Additional capabilities that solve problems and perform basic work activities ▪ Ability to: − Understand natural language − Interpret unstructured data such as emails and social media content − Learn new knowledge by either watching a human solve problems or by consuming additional data. ▪ Can utilize years of experience gained across multiple organizations ▪ Can completely transform back-office processes ▪ Cognitive software mimics human activity, such as perceiving, inferring, gathering evidence, hypothesizing and reasoning ▪ Taught rather than programmed ▪ Continues to learn and solve problems within area of interest ▪ Ability to ingest massive amounts of data that a human brain lacks the time or capacity to handle ▪ When combined with advanced automation, systems can be trained to exercise judgement when performing tasks ▪ Automation of the rudimentary processes found in almost all organizations ▪ Repetitive in nature ▪ Follows explicit steps ▪ Piecemeal approach to automation Class 2 – Enhanced process automation Class 3 – Autonomic / cognitive automation Class 1 – Basic process automation AI Human Control 1
  • 10. CONFIDENTIAL 10 Amazon robotics case study Robots have fueled growth - Amazon has added 80,000 net human employees since implementing robotic technology, while still cutting operational costs as a % of revenue Robotics are transforming business models in the retail and ecommerce industry – increasing inventory management capabilities while reducing factory footprint, shipping time, and costs. No company highlights this better than Amazon. In one of their biggest buyouts to date, Amazon acquired Kiva Systems in 2012 for $775 million – now called Amazon Robotics $775m Amazon grew its robotic workforce from 1,000 units in 2013 to over 100,000 robots in their warehouses and distribution centers around the globe in 2017 Automation has enabled Amazon to speed up customer delivery times and cut operating costs as much as 20 percent per warehouse 20% 100,000 80,000 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E # of robots employed by Amazon 2 Amazon gained a first-mover advantage in 2012 when it bought Kiva Systems, which makes robots for warehouses Once a Kiva customer, Amazon acquired the robot maker to improve the productivity and margins of its network of warehouses and fulfilment centres The move helped Amazon maintain its low costs and expand its rapid delivery capabilities It took five years for a Kiva alternative to hit the market. By then, Amazon had a jump on its rivals and had developed an experienced robotics team, giving the company a sustainable edge Source: ARK Invest research report, 2015
  • 11. CONFIDENTIAL 11 Amazon (Kiva Systems) has ignited the AGV industry • Autonomous Guided Vehicles (AGV) industry is expected to represent $10bn market by 2025. • AGVs are mobile robots used in manufacturing and other commercial industries to improve logistics efficiencies by transporting goods and other materials autonomously • In 2017, it was reported that pricing on AGVs has come down significantly over the last 5 years, which has been a catalyst for the industry. It varies from $35-$50K (not including supporting software and services) • Amazon sparked the AGV industry by acquiring Kiva systems for $775m – The company had no plans to sell the robots externally – Planned to use the robots internally to improve logistics efficiencies within their fulfilment centres, which created a significant supply / demand imbalance and a massive opportunity for other companies to enter the space – Amazon has deployed 15K mobile robots annually since 2014, and currently it has over 45K robots in operation throughout 20 fulfilment centres 2 Units sold and Year-on-Year % change 19,000 33,250 49,875 69,825 97,755 127,082 165,206 206,507 258,134 309,761 371,713 50.20% 75.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Units sold YoY growth Source: Loup Ventures
  • 12. CONFIDENTIAL 12 The automated guided vehicle's market value is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.4% from 2015 to 2025 2 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.6 8.8 10.3 52.0% 66.7% 42.3% 33.5% 34.4% 24.7% 25.1% 20.7% 20.8% 16.4% 16.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Market value YoY growth Market Value ($bn) Average Selling Price ($) $41,000 $38,950 $37,100 $35,430 $33,925 $32,568 $31,346 $30,249 $29,266 $28,388 $27,607 1.2% -5.0% -4.7% -4.5% -4.2% -4.0% -3.8% -3.5% -3.2% -3.0% -2.8% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E ASPs YoY growth Source: Loup Ventures
  • 13. CONFIDENTIAL 13 Competitive landscape has intensified and no company has a leading position in the market 2 Many start-ups and legacy robot manufacturers have entered the AGV space By 2025, the AGV market is expected to represent largest commercial robot markets in the world Fastest growing sub-markets within the entire robotics space. The AGV market will grow 43% in 2017 to $1.9bn Increasing competition and lower robotics components will lead to decline in costs for AGVs By 2025, the industry will deploy over 371K units annually, representing a 35% CAGR The AGV market will eclipse $10bn by 2025, growing 29% on a CAGR basis from 2015 – 2025 Source: Loup Ventures
  • 14. CONFIDENTIAL Robots’ role in the fight against declining margins Gross Margin Analysis 14 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 26.0% 28.0% 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E Amazon Amazon excl. AWS revenue Walmart Target Best Buy Nordstrom As major retailers fight rising wages, increasing competition, and falling margins, many attribute Amazon’s margin improvement at least partially to its investment in automation Meanwhile, two of the largest costs to retailers are: …which are entirely non-value add, and can be reduced via automation It is also estimated that sales staff spend up to 30% of their time on back-office tasks Robots: - Eliminate repetitive back-office tasks - Enable employees to focus on relationship-building with clientele - Help to retain more skilled employees - Reduce expensive overtime, part-time, and turnover costs The nearly-billion dollar acquisition is paying dividends for Amazon - The company claims to pay its warehouse workers 30% more than the national average, while it is on a red-hot run increasing its gross margin Overtime Employee Turnover Online and brick and mortar retail companies are facing significant threats to margins in the form of: Declining Traffic to Stores 3 Wage Inflation The Affordable Care Act
  • 15. CONFIDENTIAL Amazon’s growth and efficiency (driven by AI and automation) are key to the strong performance of the stock 15 3 • If the current industry trends continue through the end of the year, the number of employees in Amazon-related retail will decline by about 1% year-over-year ✓ The number of job losses would be 170,000, representing first decline since 2009 ▪ Amazon’s employment increases won’t be enough to cover the losses in the rest of the industry ✓ Amazon will maintain its current y-o-y headcount growth rate and will add 146,000 employees worldwide in 2017, a 43% increase ✓ In spite of this aggressive growth, the combined employment at Amazon and Amazon-related retail would still decline by 24,000 ▪ Amazon has already added 55,000 robots by the end of 3Q 2017 and its growth rate is accelerating. The company stated it had 45,000 robots at the end of 2016, added 35,000 robots by the end of the 1H17, and then another 20,000 in the 3Q17. Researchers assume 20,000 in the fourth quarter for a total of 75,000 new robots in 2017. 2 42 -170 77 111 146 79 153 -24 30 15 75 109 168 51 2015 2016 2017 Amazon-related retail employees* Amazon employees Total employees Amazon robots Amazon employees + robots Employees (in ‘000) Note: * Amazon employees working in retail that Amazon competes with, such as bookstores Source: Quartz Media Article dated December 4, 2017
  • 16. CONFIDENTIAL 16 What is the new retail robotic army capable of? Goods management Front office and customer experience Customer services merchandise Customer path analysis Applications ▪ Inventory robots ▪ Stock control robots ▪ Surveillance ▪ Customer greeting and entertainment ▪ Product information and demonstration ▪ Promotion ▪ Augmented virtual reality ▪ Product picking ▪ Automatic payment ▪ Virtual queue ▪ Product delivery ▪ Customer count ▪ Trajectory analysis ▪ Conversion rate analysis ▪ Behavior and emotion analysis Quantified impact ▪ Optimization of inventory costs ▪ Optimization of shrinkage linked to administrative errors ▪ +10% to 30% periodic store traffic Hointer ▪ -50% personnel costs ▪ Sales area 5 times smaller ▪ 3 times more items tried on RetailNext ▪ +10% capture rate Case Study Simbe Robotics’ “Tally” walks Target’s store aisles and takes stock levels, creating reports and even reordering inventory More than 140 SoftBank Mobile stores in Japan are using Pepper as a new way of welcoming, informing and amusing their customers In Hointer’s clothing store, shoppers can scan an item, choose a size, and within seconds the item is delivered to the fitting room via a robotic cable system. Merchandise can be purchased on the spot. A large retailer used RetailNext to understand the performance of an apparel fixture, resulting in new strategies that increased engagement and sales. 4
  • 17. CONFIDENTIAL 17 Robots applicability increasing in the retail industry4 In-Store Customer Service • Lowe’s launched LoweBot in 2016 ✓ Customers can ask queries as well as locate objects within the store • Target has also tested a robot called Tally, built by Simbe Robotics, to keep track of product inventory on its shelves ✓ Focuses specifically on monitoring inventory levels and the pricing of products within stores ✓ Uses visual recognition software to recognize when a product’s inventory is low Using robots to manage stores like warehouses • BestBuy had collaborated with PaR Systems to launch Chloe, an automated system that retrieves products from shelves ✓ Allows to use vertical space more efficiently and to simplify complex customer requirements, by easily selling items that are locked behind glass ✓ It allows customers to pick up the required merchandise ✓ It allow customers make purchases without the need for an employee Bringing the store to the customer • In 2016, Domino’s introduced a driverless vehicle, the Domino’s Robotic Unit (DRU), in Australia to deliver its pizzas ✓ It was based on the idea to use GPS data Domino’s gathered over the years from its human drivers, and combine that with an automated vehicle to make delivery rounds ✓ Partnered with Starship Technologies, to put robots in service for its European markets
  • 18. CONFIDENTIAL 18 Social Robots assist in store operations4 Customer Services Handle consumer complaints and fetch specific products for shoppers Retrieving Items Fetch products and give them straight to the customer in store Warehouse and Factory Staff Create and organise goods Used as a unique selling point Couriers Deliver products at the customer door- step Stock Managers Stacking & checking shelves Proper placement and pricing of the product Logistics and Delivery Support order picking & packaging processes and the transport of merchandise Payment Services Personalised recommendations & offers, assistance in checking out and paying for items Customer Feedback Survey customers, to seek their opinions and reviews to offer a better understanding of customer perceptions Meet and Greeter Recognize customers and their needs Check people in for service & connect them to best available store associate Source of entertainment An excellent companion to play games with to increase store engagement
  • 19. CONFIDENTIAL 19 Robots are going Mainstream Goods Management Front office and customer experience Customer services / merchandising Robots are creating entirely new in-store experiences – for both the retailer and the customer Businesses are recognizing the cost-saving efficiencies that automation brings, as well as the improved consumer experience that AI and advanced robotics can provide 5
  • 20. CONFIDENTIAL 20 Retailers either adapt to the new technological changes or die5 Retailers Robots strategy • Walmart is testing Bossa Nova autonomous service robots • In November 2017, the company announced plans to test its robots and data services in 50 Walmart stores across the US. Initially, it tested these robots in a small number of stores • The robot travels through the store looking for items that are out of stock, missing labels and incorrect price tags • The robots also need to be set up to navigate a variety of store layouts. The systems use vision light technology to scan the shelves and capture the necessary data • Schnuck Markets tested the Tally robot from Simbe Robotics in three locations in 2017, and planned to implement the next phase of testing in 2018 • The robots work in conjunction with employees, capturing high-quality imagery of the store shelves they can use to more efficiently perform their jobs • It uses computer vision to identify key insights, including if a product is in the right place • Uses advanced computer vision technology to deconstruct what it sees on the shelf, and can identify every shelf tag or price tag • Implemented a robot from Fellow Robots into one of its stores • The system performs inventory management duties but also has another function: interacting with customers • Directs the customers to the product and offer details regarding the product • Customers can also ask questions about a product “As technology continues to evolve, more retailers will begin to adopt systems like these to help manage inventory and perform other tasks. Those who don’t will likely get left behind…Now is the time to embrace technology, and to learn what works best, whether that means adding automaton to warehouses or implementing robots inside stores. There are various technologies available to help make retailers more efficient and there are more on the horizon.” Bob Graham, Chief Information Officer and SVP, BevMo!
  • 21. CONFIDENTIAL 21 Robots in retail is of current paramount importance “Most of the retailers we spoke to were positive about the use of humanoid robotics in their stores – for some of the forward-thinking brands, it was very much on their radar. Robots are one way that retailers can offer a personalised, seamless service that very much feels like an extension of how we already run our lives digitally via our smartphones. Robots can offer a valuable touchpoint for retailers where in-store friction – such as queuing or trying to find something – is eliminated, and the number of customers who leave a store without their details being captured is better managed.” -Brian Chung, Head of Global Solutions Marketing, SAP “Exploring the latest technologies is no longer a nice- to-have but a must-have for any businesses expecting to drive sales and improve their customer experience” - Patrick Munden, Global Head of Marketing and Retail at Salmon, PR dated May 3, 2017 “Something that is working really well in all supermarkets is the self-checkout model – not only does it alleviate the need for some staff, but it also helps to prevent long queues and is a far more cost- effective way to manage a store” - Zelman Ainsworth, Retail Director, CBRE, PR dated January 26, 2018 “The robots are among us…A lot of people are going to come in contact with robots in the next two to five years.” - Steve Jurvetson, a Silicon Valley investor, PR dated May 2016 “69% of businesses plan to invest in robots over the next five years in order to drive sales and boost consumer engagement, according to a report by Salmon… …The survey of business owners’ attitudes to tech revealed that 61% are currently investing in Internet of Things (IoT) enablement, with 53% looking towards the rise in popularity of voice control tech as an area of opportunity” - Shane Donnelly, PR dated May 3, 2017 5
  • 22. CONFIDENTIAL 22 Increase in demand for humanoid robots in the retail industry 0.6 4.4 2018 2023 Humanoid robot market (In $bn) CAGR: 49.0% • The main use of humanoid robots is to greet & advise customers and present & demonstrate products in retail outlets ✓ Greetings involve features such as being able to welcome visitors in different languages, particularly valuable for companies that have a global presence ✓ Advise customers on selection of products based on the gender, the age and the mood of the customer • Humanoid robots answer the well-identified customer requirements in the retail industry while they improve the customer experience • Once customers feel welcome, robots can give them general information related to the store or their day experience • It helps to gather consumer data such as gender, phone numbers, zip codes, email addresses, habits, and service feedback that help stores in serving their customers efficiently • It enable a brand to offer a self-service experience, by checking in at-locations • It also offer check-out payments and represent a way to entertain customers to offer them an extraordinary experience • Offer a more customized and fulfilling experience to customers • Key factors driving the global humanoid robots market: ✓ Rise in demand for humanoid robots from the retail industry ✓ Increase in usage of humanoid robots in education and research purposes ✓ Significant technological advancements in robotics • For example: ✓ In September 2017, Sprint Corporation, a US-based telecommunication service provider, announced the implementation of Pepper, a humanoid robot developed by SoftBank Robotics Corp. in its retail outlets. Source: SoftBank Robotics 6
  • 23. CONFIDENTIAL 23 Humanoid robots answer to the well-identified requirements Advice Greeting Entertainment Presentation Information Emotion Detection Self-servicei Robots can also be included as a part of a whole ecosystem The fast development of both artificial intelligence and machine learning could undoubtedly change the game over the few years Humanoid robots gives a positive and futuristic image to a brand Humanoid robots represent an initial investment for operational optimization 6
  • 24. CONFIDENTIAL Technology and robotics are playing a strong role in consumers’ shopping behavior 6 7 Humanoid robots Autonomous retail robots The checkout free-tech The courier robots Focus areas ▪ Pulls temporary crowds to welcome, inform and amuse clients ▪ Customer interaction, customer engagement and customer experience ▪ Can be connected to inventory database and CRM system ▪ Shelf scanning and auditing ▪ Inventory monitoring ▪ Retrieve data and to identify patterns for better decision making ▪ Manages back-end task ▪ Simplify the process of searching the product ▪ Improves speed and convenience for customers to create a frictionless sales experience ▪ No lines or cashiers ▪ The virtual cart keeps track when products are taken from or returned to the shelves ▪ Deliver packages straight to customers’ front door ▪ Mainly used to deliver packages, groceries and food products ▪ Offer enhanced tracking and scheduling capabilities Future scope ▪ Restaurants and retail outlets are plugging the gap ▪ Service robots industry is expanding rapidly and is becoming productivity platform ▪ Might shake up the declining influence of bricks-and-mortar stores and retailers may rethinking ways to innovate their store ▪ Intensifying competition as large number of players are entering the space Examples Pepper, the humanoid robot, in retail to increase sales, innovate the customer experience and provide real- time business analytics Tally helps with shelf-auditing and analytics solution LoweBot assist in finding products in multiple languages and assist in navigation Amazon Go established a brick- and-mortar grocery store offering Just Walk Out Shopping experience. It is a high tech version of a 7-Eleven and the first store is established in2018 Starship technologies has developed robots for Tesco, Pronto and Just Eat. Amazon continues to explore a drone delivery army of its own
  • 25. CONFIDENTIAL By the numbers: Parabolic growth in the robotics industry 128 Robotics Companies Funded in 2016 $1.95bn Capital Committed in 2016 (50% more than 2015) 40% of robotics startups are in the consumer/retail sector 44% of customers actively choose to visit stores using experience enhancing-technologies Major Investors 8 8
  • 26. CONFIDENTIAL The overlords: Companies leading robotic revolution From Office & Customer Experience Customer Services & Merchandising Robotics Software for Retail Analytics Goods Management 6 8
  • 27. CONFIDENTIAL 27 ` TotalCapitalRaised $50m $10m $25m $75m $100m+ $5m Source: PitchBook, CrunchBase Unknown Funding amount ` Retail robotics fundraising / M&A Goods Management Front Office & Customer Experience Customer Services & Merchandising Robotic Software for Retail Analytics Denotes M&A 8
  • 28. CONFIDENTIAL 28 Retail robotics: Goods management Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase 2014 San Jose, CA 101-250 $48.0m Robotic solutionsFetch Robotics 2005 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $41.7m Service robots to automate on-shelf inventory data Bossa Nova Robotics 2014 Wilmington, MA 11-50 $33.0m Manufactures autonomous, mobile robots Locus Robotics 2003 North Reading, MA 501-1,000 $18.2m Order fulfillment solutions Amazon Robotics 2012 Pittsburgh, PA 1-10 $0.9m Mobile picking robots Iam Robotics 2004 Barcelona, Spain 11-50 NA Biped humanoid robots Pal Robotics 2014 San Francisco, CA 11-50 NA An autonomous robotic shelf auditing and analytics solution Simbe Robotics 2001 Ilmenau, Germany 11-50 NA Mobile service robotsMetraLabs mobile robotics 2005 Andover, MA 501-1,000 $6.4m Third-party logistics provider Quiet Logistics 2009 Gurgaon, India 251-500 $39.5m Designs, manufactures and deploys advanced robotics systems Grey Orange Robotics 8
  • 29. CONFIDENTIAL 29 Retail robotics: Front office & customer experience Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase 2007 San Francisco, CA 1-10 NA Build and develop robots RobotLAB 2016 Rouen, France 1-10 NA Engaged in design of robotsEvent Bots 2005 London, UK 1-10 N/A Develops art robotics and AI products BotsAndUs 8
  • 30. CONFIDENTIAL 30 Retail robotics: Customer services & merchandising Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase 2013 San Jose, CA 11-50 $17.0m Autonomous delivery robots Savioke 2014 San Francisco, CA 101-250 $17.2m Self-driving delivery robots Starship Technologies 2013 Redwood city, CA 51-100 $55.3m Crowd Security Intelligence platform Synack 2013 Palo Alto, CA 11-50 $15.0m Automated fulfillment system HDS Global 2015 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $14.0m An autonomous delivery cart Dispatch 2015 Tel Aviv, Israel 11-50 $6.0m Builds a supply chainCommonSense Robotics NA Palo Alto, CA 1-10 NA Manufactures robots that produce frozen confections Frobot 2007 Viljandi, Estonia 11-50 NA Automated parcel delivery solutions Cleveron 2015 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $4.2m Offers technology for physical retailers Oak Labs 2013 Reno, NV 11-50 $16.1m Provides drone delivery services for urgent medical supplies, online retail, and food delivery Flirtey 8
  • 31. CONFIDENTIAL 31 Retail robotics: Customer services & merchandising Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase 2016 Villeurbanne, France 1-10 NA Robot kioskHEASE Robotics 2016 London, UK 11-50 NA Autonomous robots for marketing and product distribution Mio Technologies 2011 Mountain View, CA 11-50 NA Retail Technology, Robotics Fellow Robots 2013 Toronto, Canada 11-50 NA Robotic kiosksteaBOT 2012 Seattle, WA 11-50 NA Transforms physical store into a micro warehouse Hointer 8
  • 32. CONFIDENTIAL 32 Company IndustryFounded Employees FundingLocation Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase Retail robotics: Robotic software for retail analytics 2007 San Jose, CA 101-250 $184.0m In-store customer engagement RetailNext 2010 San Francisco, CA 11-50 $43.6m Develop solutions to improve in-store experience Euclid Analytics 2012 Philadelphia, PA 11-50 $2.6m Allows robots to navigate retail store floors, managing inventory, ensuring planogram and promotional compliance COSY 2016 Pittsburgh, PA 11-50 $0.9m A 3D computer vision system CapSen Robotics 2012 Norcross, GA 51-200 $67.7m retail in-store analytics software, platform, and sensors Nomi 8
  • 33. CONFIDENTIAL 33 Most active investors in robotic investments US financial investors remain the main source of capital for retail robotic investments Investor Representative InvestmentsFund Overview HQ: Santa Clara, CA Founded: 1991, Funds raised: $12.2bn # of robotic investments: 5 Note: *Includes debt and equity Source: Press releases, dealroom.co, Crunchbase, CapitalIQ HQ: Menlo Park, CA Founded: 1995, Funds raised: $2.0bn # of robotic investments: 4 HQ: Menlo Park, CA Founded: 2004, Funds raised: $1.0+bn # of robotic investments: 4 HQ: San Francisco, CA Founded: 2015, Funds raised: $967mn # of robotic investments: 3 HQ: Alexandria, VA Founded: 1989, Funds raised: $3.0bn # of robotic investments: 3 HQ: San Francisco, CA Founded: 2005, Funds raised: na # of robotic investments: 3 HQ: New York, NY Founded: 1999, Funds raised: $400mn+ # of robotic investments: 3 HQ: San Mateo, CA Founded: 1983, Funds raised: na # of robotic investments: 3 HQ: Palo Alto, CA Founded: 2005, Funds raised: $1bn # of robotic investments: 3 HQ: San Francisco, CA Founded: 2012, Funds raised: na # of robotic investments: 3 HQ: Newton Center, MA Founded: 1999, Funds raised: $600mn # of robotic investments: 2 1 round each 2 rounds 4 rounds 3 rounds 1 round 1 round each 3 rounds 3 rounds 3 rounds 3 rounds 3 rounds 3 rounds 2 rounds 8
  • 34. CONFIDENTIAL 34 Largest Robotics in retail funding rounds since 2016 US companies remain the main recipients of growth investment InvestorsCompany Country Description Round Details Source: Press releases, Crunchbase Creator of service robots to automate the collection and analysis of on-shelf inventor data Nov 2017 Series B: $17.5m Cota Capital; Intel Capital; Lucas Venture Group; Paxion Capital; Walden Riverwood Ventures Manufactures autonomous mobile robot solutions for warehousing and intralogistics markets Dec 2017 Series B: $25.0m SoftBank Capital, Shasta Ventures, Sway Ventures, O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures Provides an analytics platform to improve customer traffic, satisfaction, and loyalty Jan 2016 Series C: $20.0m Benchmark; Cox Enterprises; Gold Sky Capital; Groupe Arnault; Harrison Metal Capital; New Enterprise Associates Online marketplace to buy and sell second-hand products Jan 2016 Debt: $15.0m Horizon Technology Finance Corporation; Horizon Technology Finance Management Builds of self-driving delivery robots to deliver goods locally. Its products are used to deliver parcels, groceries, and food Dec 2016 Seed: $17.2m Daimler AG; Grishin Robotics; Matrix Partners; Morpheus Ventures; Playfair Capital; Shasta Ventures; ZX Ventures Develops autonomous delivery robots that work in human environments to improve people’s lives Jan 2016 Series A: $15.0m EDB Investments; Intel Capital; Northern Light Venture Capital An ecommerce service to shop for groceries and general merchandise Aug 2017 Debt: $13.0m I26 Capital Management, Toyota Motor Corporation and Ingram Micro A SaaS platform to leverage retailers digital strategy by turning online traffic into physical footfall Oct 2016 Series A: $5.0m Safeguard, Recruit, Forerunner Ventures, Beanstalk Ventures, Advancit Capital, Cowboy Ventures An e-commerce fulfilment robotics company June 2017 Series B: $25.1m Scale Venture Partners Builds a supply-chain that allows retailers to offer sustainable delivery service to their online customers Aug 2017 Series A: $6.0m Aleph Venture Capital and Innovation Endeavors 8
  • 35. CONFIDENTIAL Retail Robotics M&A activity Robotics in retail continue to experience M&A activity by strategic and financial investors Company DateIndustry Acquirers ValuationDescription Electronic equipment Designs and manufactures intelligent intralogistics and materials handling solutions Kion Group Implied EV: $3.3bn EV / LTM Revenue: 1.8x Jun 2016Dematic Group Front office & customer experience Manufactures kindly and interactive humanoid robots SoftBank Corp Implied EV: $95.3m Acquired 80% stake and 15% later in 2015 Mar 2012Aldebaran Robotics Customer services & merchandising Develops intelligent products and solutions for the retail industry Datalogic Scanning Holdings Implied EV: $25.5m EV / LTM revenue: 5.0x Jul 2010 Evolution Robotics Retail Goods management Manufactures control systems, robotics, software applications for order fulfilment operations Amazon.com Implied EV: $775.0m Mar 2012Kiva Systems Goods management Manufactures systems for material handling, packaging, and palletizing Euroimpianti N/A Oct 2008C & D Robotics Robotic software for retail Manufactures commercial robotic floor care equipment Sealed Air Corporation Implied EV: $18.0m Apr 2015Intellibot Robotics Goods management Offers automated material handling solutions for retailers, manufacturers, and logistics providers Honeywell Sensing and Productivity Solutions Implied EV: $1.6bn Aug 2016Intelligrated Customer Services & Merchandising Specializes in engineering intelligent solutions Pohlad Companies N/A Nov 2017PaR Systems Source: Press releases, Crunchbase, dealroom.co 35 Goods management Manufacturer and integrator of innovative robotic material handling systems Cimcorp Oy N/A Jul 2010RMT Robotics 8