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Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods
for Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model
Chiheb Ben Hammouda
Christian Bayer
Ra´ul Tempone
RWTH Aachen University
February 27, 2020
0
Outline
1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation &
Challenges
2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods
3 Numerical Experiments and Results
4 Conclusions and Future Work
0
1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation &
Challenges
2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods
3 Numerical Experiments and Results
4 Conclusions and Future Work
0
Options and Pricing
Option: Financial security that gives the holder the right, but
not the obligation, to buy (Call) or sell (Put) a specified
quantity of a specified underlying instrument (asset) at a
specified price (K: strike) on (European) or before (Bermudan,
American) a specified date (T: maturity).
Why using options
▸ Effective hedge instrument against a declining stock market to limit
downside losses.
▸ Speculative purposes such as wagering on the direction of a stock.
To value (price) the option is to compute the fair price of this
contract.
1
Pricing Approaches
2
Martingale Representation and Notations
Theorem (Fair Value of Financial Derivatives)
The fair value of a financial derivative which can be exercised at time
T is given by (Harrison and Pliska 1981)
V (S,0) = e−rT
EQ[g(S,T)]
where EQ is the expectation under the local martingale measure Q.
Asset: {St t ≥ 0} stochastic process such that St ∈ Rd
represents
the price of the underlying at time t, defined on a continuous-time
probability space (Ω,F,Q).
r is the risk-free interest rate
Payoff function g Rd
→ R. E.g., European call option,
g(ST ) = max{ST − K,0}, where K is the strike price
d is the number of assets
Modeling Stock Price Dynamics
Stock prices St are often modeled in the form of SDEs like
dSt = µtdt + σtStdWt,
µt is a drift term; Wt is a one-dimensional Brownian motion; σt is
the volatility process.
Classical Black-Scholes (BS) model: the volatility process σt = σ
dSt = µtdt + σStdWt.
Caveat: The assumption of constant volatility in the BS model
does not hold in reality.
4
Why not Black-Scholes Model?
C: market data for option prices; σimp: implied volatility; BSprice:
price obtained under BS model.
Find σimp such that C = BSprice(S0,K,r,T,σimp(S0,K,r,T))
Log_Moneyness k
−0.3
−0.2
−0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Tim
e_to_M
aturit
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
ImpliedVolatilit
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Figure 1.1: The SPX1
volatility surface (February 26, 2020), time in years,
and moneyness k = S0
K
.
1
SPX is a stock index based on the 500 largest companies with shares listed for
trading on the NYSE or NASDAQ 5
Local and Stochastic Volatility Models
Local volatility models: The volatility is given as a
deterministic function: σt = σ(St,t).
Stochastic volatility models: The volatility is given as a
stochastic process, described by an SDE with respect to a
Brownian motion (Notation: vt = σ2
t )
▸ The Heston model
dSt = µStdt +
√
vtStdW1
t
dvt = κ(θ − vt)dt + ξ
√
vt (ρdW1
t +
√
1 − ρ2dW2
t ),
κ,θ,ξ > 0 are parameters and ρ ∈ [−1,1] is the correlation between
the two standard Brownian motions W1
and W2
.
▸ The Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho (SABR) model
dSt = vtSβ
t dW1
t
dvt = αvt (ρdW1
t +
√
1 − ρ2dW2
t ),
α ≥ 0, 0 ≤ β ≤ 1.
6
Rough Volatility 2
2
Jim Gatheral, Thibault Jaisson, and Mathieu Rosenbaum. “Volatility is rough”.
In: Quantitative Finance 18.6 (2018), pp. 933–949 7
The Rough Bergomi Model 3
This model, under a pricing measure, is given by
⎧⎪⎪⎪⎪
⎨
⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩
dSt =
√
vtStdZt,
vt = ξ0(t)exp(η̃WH
t − 1
2
η2
t2H
),
Zt = ρW1
t + ¯ρW⊥
t ≡ ρW1
+
√
1 − ρ2W⊥
,
(1)
(W1
,W⊥
): two independent standard Brownian motions
̃WH
is Riemann-Liouville process, defined by
̃WH
t = ∫
t
0
KH
(t − s)dW1
s , t ≥ 0,
KH
(t − s) =
√
2H(t − s)H−1/2
, ∀ 0 ≤ s ≤ t. (2)
H ∈ (0,1/2] controls the roughness of paths, ρ ∈ [−1,1] and η > 0.
t ↦ ξ0(t): forward variance curve at time 0; ξs(t) = EQ
s [vt],
0 ≤ s ≤ t (ξs(t) is martingale in s).
3
Christian Bayer, Peter Friz, and Jim Gatheral. “Pricing under rough volatility”.
In: Quantitative Finance 16.6 (2016), pp. 887–904 8
Model Challenges
Numerically:
▸ The model is non-Markovian and non-affine ⇒ Standard numerical
methods (PDEs, characteristic functions) seem inapplicable.
▸ The only prevalent pricing method for mere vanilla options is Monte
Carlo (MC) (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral 2016; McCrickerd and
Pakkanen 2018) still computationally expensive task.
▸ Discretization methods have a poor behavior of the strong error
(strong convergence rate of order H ∈ [0,1/2]) (Neuenkirch and
Shalaiko 2016) ⇒ Variance reduction methods, such as multilevel
Monte Carlo (MLMC), are inefficient for very small values of H.
Theoretically:
▸ No proper weak error analysis done in the rough volatility context,
due to
☀ Non Markovianity ⇒ infinite dimensional state.
☀ Singularity in the Kernel, KH
(.), in (2).
9
Option Pricing Challenges
The integration problem is challenging
Issue 1: Time-discretization of the rough Bergomi process (large N
(number of time steps)) ⇒ S takes values in a high-dimensional
space ⇒ Curse of dimensionality4
when using standard
deterministic quadrature methods.
Issue 2: The payoff function g is typically not smooth ⇒ low
regularity⇒ Deterministic quadrature methods suffer from a
slow convergence.
4
Curse of dimensionality: An exponential growth of the work (number of
function evaluations) in terms of the dimension of the integration problem. 10
Methodology 5
We design efficient fast hierarchical pricing methods, for options whose
underlyings follow the rough Bergomi model, based on
1 Analytic smoothing to uncover available regularity.
2 Approximating the resulting integral of the smoothed payoff using
deterministic quadrature methods
▸ Adaptive sparse grids quadrature (ASGQ).
▸ Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC).
3 Combining our methods with hierarchical representations
▸ Brownian bridges as a Wiener path generation method ⇒ the
effective dimension of the problem.
▸ Richardson Extrapolation (Condition: weak error expansion in
∆t) ⇒ Faster convergence of the weak error ⇒ number of time
steps (smaller dimension).
5
Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone. “Hierarchical
adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough
Bergomi model”. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in
Quantitative Finance Journal) 11
Contributions 6
1 First to design a fast pricing method, in the context of rough
volatility models, based on deterministic integration methods.
2 Our proposed methods outperform significantly the MC approach,
which is the only prevalent method in this context.
3 We propose an original way to overcome the high dimensionality
of the integration domain, by
▸ Reducing the total input dimension using Richardson extrapolation.
▸ Combining the Brownian bridge construction with ASGQ or QMC.
4 Our proposed methodology shows a robust performance with
respect to the values of the Hurst parameter H.
5 First to show numerically that both hybrid and exact schemes
have a weak error of order one, in the practical ranges of
discretization (for a certain class of payoff functions).
6 Our approach is applicable to a wide class of stochastic volatility
models and in particular rough volatility models.
6
Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone. “Hierarchical
adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough
Bergomi model”. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in
Quantitative Finance Journal) 12
1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation &
Challenges
2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods
3 Numerical Experiments and Results
4 Conclusions and Future Work
12
Simulation of the Rough Bergomi Dynamics
Goal: Simulate jointly (W1
t , ̃WH
t 0 ≤ t ≤ T), resulting in W1
t1
,...,WtN
and ̃WH
t1
,..., ̃WH
tN
along a given grid t1 < ⋅⋅⋅ < tN
1 Covariance based approach (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral 2016)
▸ 2N-dimensional Gaussian random as input vector.
▸ Based on Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix of the
(2N)-dimensional Gaussian random vector
W1
t1
,...,W1
tN
, ̃WH
t1
,..., ̃WtN
.
▸ Exact method but slow
▸ Work: O (N2
).
2 The hybrid scheme (Bennedsen, Lunde, and Pakkanen 2017)
▸ 2N-dimensional Gaussian random as input vector.
▸ Based on Euler discretization
▸ Approximates the kernel function in (2) by a power function near
zero and by a step function elsewhere.
▸ Accurate scheme that is much faster than the Covariance based
approach.
▸ Work: O (N) up to logarithmic factors.
13
On the Choice of the Simulation Scheme
Figure 2.1: The convergence of the relative weak error EB, using MC with
6 × 106
samples, for example parameters:
H = 0.07, K = 1,S0 = 1, T = 1, ρ = −0.9, η = 1.9, ξ0 = 0.0552. The upper and
lower bounds are 95% confidence intervals. a) With the hybrid scheme b)
With the exact scheme.
10−2 10−1
Δt
10−2
10−1
∣E[g∣XΔt)−g∣X)]∣
weak_error
Lb
Ub
rate=Δ1.02
rate=Δ1.00
(a)
10−2 10−1
Δt
10−3
10−2
10−1
∣E[g∣XΔt)−g∣X)]∣
weak_error
Lb
Ub
rate=Δ0.76
rate=Δ1.00
(b)
14
Conditional Expectation for Analytic Smoothing
CrB (T,K) = E [(ST − K)
+
]
= E[E[(ST − K)+
σ(W1
(t),t ≤ T)]]
= E [CBS (S0 = exp(ρ∫
T
0
√
vtdW1
t −
1
2
ρ2
∫
T
0
vtdt),k = K, σ2
= (1 − ρ2
)∫
T
0
vtdt)]
≈ ∫
R2N
CBS (GrB(w(1)
,w(2)
))ρN (w(1)
)ρN (w(2)
)dw(1)
dw(2)
= CN
rB. (3)
Idea: (3) obtained by using the orthogonal decomposition of St into
S1
t = E{ρ∫
t
0
√
vsdW1
s }, S2
t = E{
√
1 − ρ2
∫
t
0
√
vsdW⊥
s },
and then apply conditional log-normality.
Notation:
CBS(S0,k,σ2
): the Black-Scholes call price, for initial spot price S0, strike price k,
and volatility σ2
.
GrB maps 2N independent standard Gaussian random inputs to the parameters fed
to Black-Scholes formula.
ρN : the multivariate Gaussian density, N: number of time steps.
For a continuous (semi)martingale Z, E(Z)t = exp(Zt − Z0 − 1
2[Z,Z]0,t), where
[Z,Z]0,t is the quadratic variation of Z.
15
Sparse Grids (I)
Notation:
Given F Rd
→ R and a multi-index β ∈ Nd
+.
Fβ = Qm(β)
[F] a quadrature operator based on a Cartesian
quadrature grid (m(βn) points along yn).
Approximating E[F] with Fβ is not an appropriate option due to
the well-known curse of dimensionality.
The first-order difference operators
∆iFβ {
Fβ − Fβ−ei
, if βi > 1
Fβ if βi = 1
where ei denotes the ith d-dimensional unit vector
The mixed (first-order tensor) difference operators
∆[Fβ] = ⊗d
i=1∆iFβ
Idea: A quadrature estimate of E[F] is
MI [F] = ∑
β∈I
∆[Fβ],
16
Sparse Grids (II)
E[F] ≈ MI [F] = ∑
β∈I
∆[Fβ],
Product approach: I = { β ∞≤ ; β ∈ Nd
+} ⇒ EQ(M) = O (M−r/d
)
(for functions with bounded total derivatives up to order r).
Regular sparse grids:
I = { β 1≤ + d − 1; β ∈ Nd
+} ⇒ EQ(M) = O (M−s
(log M)(d−1)(s+1)
)
(for functions with bounded mixed derivatives up to order s).
Adaptive sparse grids quadrature (ASGQ): I = IASGQ
(Next slides).
EQ(M) = O (M−s
) (for functions with bounded weighted mixed
derivatives up to order s).
Notation: M: number of quadrature points; EQ: quadrature error.
Figure 2.2: Left are product
grids ∆β1 ⊗ ∆β2 for
1 ≤ β1,β2 ≤ 3. Right is the
corresponding SG
construction.
17
ASGQ in Practice
E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑
β∈IASGQ
∆[Fβ],
The construction of IASGQ
is done by profit thresholding
IASGQ
= {β ∈ Nd
+ Pβ ≥ T}.
Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ =
∆Eβ
∆Wβ
.
Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β}
− MI
.
Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β}
] − Work[MI
].
Figure 2.3: A posteriori,
adaptive construction as in
(Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given
an index set Ik, compute the
profits of the neighbor indices
and select the most profitable
one
18
ASGQ in Practice
E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑
β∈IASGQ
∆[Fβ],
The construction of IASGQ
is done by profit thresholding
IASGQ
= {β ∈ Nd
+ Pβ ≥ T}.
Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ =
∆Eβ
∆Wβ
.
Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β}
− MI
.
Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β}
] − Work[MI
].
Figure 2.4: A posteriori,
adaptive construction as in
(Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given
an index set Ik, compute the
profits of the neighbor indices
and select the most profitable
one
18
ASGQ in Practice
E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑
β∈IASGQ
∆[Fβ],
The construction of IASGQ
is done by profit thresholding
IASGQ
= {β ∈ Nd
+ Pβ ≥ T}.
Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ =
∆Eβ
∆Wβ
.
Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β}
− MI
.
Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β}
] − Work[MI
].
Figure 2.5: A posteriori,
adaptive construction as in
(Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given
an index set Ik, compute the
profits of the neighbor indices
and select the most profitable
one
18
ASGQ in Practice
E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑
β∈IASGQ
∆[Fβ],
The construction of IASGQ
is done by profit thresholding
IASGQ
= {β ∈ Nd
+ Pβ ≥ T}.
Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ =
∆Eβ
∆Wβ
.
Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β}
− MI
.
Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β}
] − Work[MI
].
Figure 2.6: A posteriori,
adaptive construction as in
(Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given
an index set Ik, compute the
profits of the neighbor indices
and select the most profitable
one
18
ASGQ in Practice
E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑
β∈IASGQ
∆[Fβ],
The construction of IASGQ
is done by profit thresholding
IASGQ
= {β ∈ Nd
+ Pβ ≥ T}.
Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ =
∆Eβ
∆Wβ
.
Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β}
− MI
.
Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β}
] − Work[MI
].
Figure 2.7: A posteriori,
adaptive construction as in
(Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given
an index set Ik, compute the
profits of the neighbor indices
and select the most profitable
one
18
ASGQ in Practice
E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑
β∈IASGQ
∆[Fβ],
The construction of IASGQ
is done by profit thresholding
IASGQ
= {β ∈ Nd
+ Pβ ≥ T}.
Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ =
∆Eβ
∆Wβ
.
Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β}
− MI
.
Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β}
] − Work[MI
].
Figure 2.8: A posteriori,
adaptive construction as in
(Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given
an index set Ik, compute the
profits of the neighbor indices
and select the most profitable
one
18
Randomized QMC
A (rank-1) lattice rule (Sloan 1985; Nuyens 2014) with n points
Qn(f) =
1
n
n−1
∑
k=0
f (
kz mod n
n
),
where z = (z1,...,zd) ∈ Nd
(the generating vector).
A randomly shifted lattice rule
Qn,q(f) =
1
q
q−1
∑
i=0
Q(i)
n (f) =
1
q
q−1
∑
i=0
(
1
n
n−1
∑
k=0
f (
kz + ∆(i)
mod n
n
)), (4)
where {∆(i)
}q
i=1: independent random shifts, and MQMC
= q × n.
▸ Unbiased approximation of the integral.
▸ Practical error estimate.
EQ(M) = O (M−1
log(M)d−1
) (for functions with bounded mixed derivatives).
19
Wiener Path Generation Methods
{ti}N
i=0: Grid of time steps, {Bti }N
i=0: Brownian motion increments
Random Walk
▸ Proceeds incrementally, given Bti ,
Bti+1 = Bti +
√
∆tzi, zi ∼ N(0,1).
▸ All components of z = (z1,...,zN ) have the same scale of importance (in
terms of variance): isotropic.
Hierarchical Brownian Bridge
▸ Given a past value Bti and a future value Btk
, the value Btj (with
ti < tj < tk) can be generated according to (ρ = j−i
k−i
)
Btj = (1 − ρ)Bti + ρBtk
+ zj
√
ρ(1 − ρ)(k − i)∆t, zj ∼ N(0,1).
▸ The most important values (capture a large part of the total variance) are
the first components of z = (z1,...,zN ).
▸ the effective dimension (# important dimensions) by anisotropy
between different directions ⇒ Faster convergence of deterministic
quadrature methods.
20
1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation &
Challenges
2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods
3 Numerical Experiments and Results
4 Conclusions and Future Work
20
Numerical Experiments
Table 1: Reference solution (using MC with 500 time steps and number of samples,
M = 8 × 106
) of call option price under the rough Bergomi model, for different
parameter constellations. The numbers between parentheses correspond to the
statistical errors estimates.
Parameters Reference solution
H = 0.07,K = 1,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.9,η = 1.9,ξ0 = 0.0552 0.0791
(5.6e−05)
H = 0.02,K = 1,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.7,η = 0.4,ξ0 = 0.1 0.1246
(9.0e−05)
H = 0.02,K = 0.8,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.7,η = 0.4,ξ0 = 0.1 0.2412
(5.4e−05)
H = 0.02,K = 1.2,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.7,η = 0.4,ξ0 = 0.1 0.0570
(8.0e−05)
Set 1 is the closest to the empirical findings (Gatheral, Jaisson, and
Rosenbaum 2018), suggesting that H ≈ 0.1. The choice ν = 1.9 and
ρ = −0.9 is justified by (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral 2016).
For the remaining three sets, we test the potential of our method for a
very rough case, where variance reduction methods are inefficient.
21
Error Comparison
Etot: the total error of approximating the expectation in (3).
When using ASGQ estimator, QN
Etot ≤ CRB − CN
RB + CN
RB − QN ≤ EB(N) + EQ(TOLASGQ,N),
where EQ is the quadrature error, EB is the bias, TOLASGQ is a user
selected tolerance for ASGQ method.
When using randomized QMC or MC estimator, Q
MC (QMC)
N
Etot ≤ CRB − CN
RB + CN
RB − Q
MC (QMC)
N ≤ EB(N) + ES(M,N),
where ES is the statistical error, M is the number of samples used
for MC or randomized QMC method.
MQMC
and MMC
, are chosen so that ES,QMC(MQMC
) and
ES,MC(MMC
) satisfy
ES,QMC(MQMC
) = ES,MC(MMC
) = EB(N) =
Etot
2
.
22
Relative Errors and Computational Gains
Table 2: In this table, we highlight the computational gains achieved by
ASGQ and QMC over MC method to meet a certain error tolerance. We note
that the ratios are computed for the best configuration with Richardson
extrapolation for each method. The ratios (ASGQ/MC) and (QMC/MC) are
referred to CPU time ratios in %.
Parameters Relative error (ASGQ/MC) (QMC/MC)
Set 1 1% 7% 10%
Set 2 0.2% 5% 1%
Set 3 0.4% 4% 5%
Set 4 2% 20% 10%
23
Computational Work of the MC Method
with Different Configurations
10−2 10−1 100
Error
10−3
10−1
101
103
105
CPUtime
MC
slope= -3.33
MC+Rich(level 1)
slope= -2.51
MC+Rich(level 2)
Figure 3.1: Computational work of the MC method with the different
configurations in terms of Richardson extrapolation’s level. Case of parameter
set 1 in Table 1.
24
Computational Work of the QMC Method
with Different Configurations
10−2 10−1 100
Error
10−2
10−1
100
101
102
103
CPUime
QMC
slope= -1.98
QMC+Rich(level 1)
slope= -1.57
QMC+Rich(level 2)
Figure 3.2: Computational work of the QMC method with the different
configurations in terms of Richardson extrapolation’s level. Case of parameter
set 1 in Table 1.
25
Computational Work of the ASGQ Method
with Different Configurations
10−2 10−1 100
Error
10−2
10−1
100
101
102
103
CPUtime
ASGQ
slope= -5.18
ASGQ+Rich(level 1)
slope= -1.79
ASGQ+Rich(level 2)
slope= -1.27
Figure 3.3: Computational work of the ASGQ method with the different
configurations in terms of Richardson extrapolation’s level. Case of parameter
set 1 in Table 1.
26
Computational work of the different methods
with their best configurations
10−2 10−1 100
Error
10−3
10−2
10−1
100
101
102
103
104
CPUtime
MC+Rich(level 1)
slope= -2.51
QMC+Rich(level 1)
slope= -1.57
ASGQ+Rich(level 2)
slope= -1.27
Figure 3.4: Computational work comparison of the different methods with the
best configurations, for the case of parameter set 1 in Table 1.
27
1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation &
Challenges
2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods
3 Numerical Experiments and Results
4 Conclusions and Future Work
27
Conclusions
Proposed novel fast option pricers, for options whose underlyings
follow the rough Bergomi model, based on
▸ Conditional expectations for analytic smoothing.
▸ Hierarchical deterministic quadrature methods.
Given a sufficiently small relative error tolerance, our proposed
methods demonstrate substantial computational gains over the
standard MC method, for different parameter constellations.
⇒ Huge cost reduction when calibrating under the rough Bergomi
model.
More details can be found in
Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone.
“Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for
option pricing under the rough Bergomi model”. In: arXiv
preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in Quantitative
Finance Journal).
28
Future Work
1 A more systematic comparison against the variant of MC proposed
in (McCrickerd and Pakkanen 2018).
2 Provide a more reliable method for controlling the quadrature
error for ASGQ which is, to the best of our knowledge, still an
open research problem (more challenging in our context, especially
for low values of H).
3 Accelerating our novel approach can be achieved by using
▸ Better versions of the ASGQ and QMC methods.
▸ An alternative weak approximation of rough volatility models,
based on a Donsker type approximation, as recently suggested in
(Horvath, Jacquier, and Muguruza 2017).
29
References I
Christian Bayer, Peter Friz, and Jim Gatheral. “Pricing under
rough volatility”. In: Quantitative Finance 16.6 (2016),
pp. 887–904.
Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone.
“Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for
option pricing under the rough Bergomi model”. In: arXiv
preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in Quantitative
Finance Journal).
Mikkel Bennedsen, Asger Lunde, and Mikko S Pakkanen.
“Hybrid scheme for Brownian semistationary processes”. In:
Finance and Stochastics 21.4 (2017), pp. 931–965.
Jim Gatheral, Thibault Jaisson, and Mathieu Rosenbaum.
“Volatility is rough”. In: Quantitative Finance 18.6 (2018),
pp. 933–949.
30
References II
Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali et al. “Multi-index stochastic collocation
for random PDEs”. In: Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics
and Engineering (2016).
J Michael Harrison and Stanley R Pliska. “Martingales and
stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading”. In:
Stochastic processes and their applications 11.3 (1981),
pp. 215–260.
Blanka Horvath, Antoine Jacquier, and Aitor Muguruza.
“Functional central limit theorems for rough volatility”. In:
Available at SSRN 3078743 (2017).
Ryan McCrickerd and Mikko S Pakkanen. “Turbocharging Monte
Carlo pricing for the rough Bergomi model”. In: Quantitative
Finance (2018), pp. 1–10.
31
References III
Andreas Neuenkirch and Taras Shalaiko. “The Order Barrier for
Strong Approximation of Rough Volatility Models”. In: arXiv
preprint arXiv:1606.03854 (2016).
Dirk Nuyens. The construction of good lattice rules and
polynomial lattice rules. 2014.
Ian H Sloan. “Lattice methods for multiple integration”. In:
Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 12 (1985),
pp. 131–143.
Denis Talay and Luciano Tubaro. “Expansion of the global error
for numerical schemes solving stochastic differential equations”.
In: Stochastic analysis and applications 8.4 (1990), pp. 483–509.
32
Thank you for your attention
32

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Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods for Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model

  • 1. Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods for Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model Chiheb Ben Hammouda Christian Bayer Ra´ul Tempone RWTH Aachen University February 27, 2020 0
  • 2. Outline 1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation & Challenges 2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods 3 Numerical Experiments and Results 4 Conclusions and Future Work 0
  • 3. 1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation & Challenges 2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods 3 Numerical Experiments and Results 4 Conclusions and Future Work 0
  • 4. Options and Pricing Option: Financial security that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (Call) or sell (Put) a specified quantity of a specified underlying instrument (asset) at a specified price (K: strike) on (European) or before (Bermudan, American) a specified date (T: maturity). Why using options ▸ Effective hedge instrument against a declining stock market to limit downside losses. ▸ Speculative purposes such as wagering on the direction of a stock. To value (price) the option is to compute the fair price of this contract. 1
  • 6. Martingale Representation and Notations Theorem (Fair Value of Financial Derivatives) The fair value of a financial derivative which can be exercised at time T is given by (Harrison and Pliska 1981) V (S,0) = e−rT EQ[g(S,T)] where EQ is the expectation under the local martingale measure Q. Asset: {St t ≥ 0} stochastic process such that St ∈ Rd represents the price of the underlying at time t, defined on a continuous-time probability space (Ω,F,Q). r is the risk-free interest rate Payoff function g Rd → R. E.g., European call option, g(ST ) = max{ST − K,0}, where K is the strike price d is the number of assets
  • 7. Modeling Stock Price Dynamics Stock prices St are often modeled in the form of SDEs like dSt = µtdt + σtStdWt, µt is a drift term; Wt is a one-dimensional Brownian motion; σt is the volatility process. Classical Black-Scholes (BS) model: the volatility process σt = σ dSt = µtdt + σStdWt. Caveat: The assumption of constant volatility in the BS model does not hold in reality. 4
  • 8. Why not Black-Scholes Model? C: market data for option prices; σimp: implied volatility; BSprice: price obtained under BS model. Find σimp such that C = BSprice(S0,K,r,T,σimp(S0,K,r,T)) Log_Moneyness k −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Tim e_to_M aturit 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ImpliedVolatilit 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Figure 1.1: The SPX1 volatility surface (February 26, 2020), time in years, and moneyness k = S0 K . 1 SPX is a stock index based on the 500 largest companies with shares listed for trading on the NYSE or NASDAQ 5
  • 9. Local and Stochastic Volatility Models Local volatility models: The volatility is given as a deterministic function: σt = σ(St,t). Stochastic volatility models: The volatility is given as a stochastic process, described by an SDE with respect to a Brownian motion (Notation: vt = σ2 t ) ▸ The Heston model dSt = µStdt + √ vtStdW1 t dvt = κ(θ − vt)dt + ξ √ vt (ρdW1 t + √ 1 − ρ2dW2 t ), κ,θ,ξ > 0 are parameters and ρ ∈ [−1,1] is the correlation between the two standard Brownian motions W1 and W2 . ▸ The Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho (SABR) model dSt = vtSβ t dW1 t dvt = αvt (ρdW1 t + √ 1 − ρ2dW2 t ), α ≥ 0, 0 ≤ β ≤ 1. 6
  • 10. Rough Volatility 2 2 Jim Gatheral, Thibault Jaisson, and Mathieu Rosenbaum. “Volatility is rough”. In: Quantitative Finance 18.6 (2018), pp. 933–949 7
  • 11. The Rough Bergomi Model 3 This model, under a pricing measure, is given by ⎧⎪⎪⎪⎪ ⎨ ⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩ dSt = √ vtStdZt, vt = ξ0(t)exp(η̃WH t − 1 2 η2 t2H ), Zt = ρW1 t + ¯ρW⊥ t ≡ ρW1 + √ 1 − ρ2W⊥ , (1) (W1 ,W⊥ ): two independent standard Brownian motions ̃WH is Riemann-Liouville process, defined by ̃WH t = ∫ t 0 KH (t − s)dW1 s , t ≥ 0, KH (t − s) = √ 2H(t − s)H−1/2 , ∀ 0 ≤ s ≤ t. (2) H ∈ (0,1/2] controls the roughness of paths, ρ ∈ [−1,1] and η > 0. t ↦ ξ0(t): forward variance curve at time 0; ξs(t) = EQ s [vt], 0 ≤ s ≤ t (ξs(t) is martingale in s). 3 Christian Bayer, Peter Friz, and Jim Gatheral. “Pricing under rough volatility”. In: Quantitative Finance 16.6 (2016), pp. 887–904 8
  • 12. Model Challenges Numerically: ▸ The model is non-Markovian and non-affine ⇒ Standard numerical methods (PDEs, characteristic functions) seem inapplicable. ▸ The only prevalent pricing method for mere vanilla options is Monte Carlo (MC) (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral 2016; McCrickerd and Pakkanen 2018) still computationally expensive task. ▸ Discretization methods have a poor behavior of the strong error (strong convergence rate of order H ∈ [0,1/2]) (Neuenkirch and Shalaiko 2016) ⇒ Variance reduction methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC), are inefficient for very small values of H. Theoretically: ▸ No proper weak error analysis done in the rough volatility context, due to ☀ Non Markovianity ⇒ infinite dimensional state. ☀ Singularity in the Kernel, KH (.), in (2). 9
  • 13. Option Pricing Challenges The integration problem is challenging Issue 1: Time-discretization of the rough Bergomi process (large N (number of time steps)) ⇒ S takes values in a high-dimensional space ⇒ Curse of dimensionality4 when using standard deterministic quadrature methods. Issue 2: The payoff function g is typically not smooth ⇒ low regularity⇒ Deterministic quadrature methods suffer from a slow convergence. 4 Curse of dimensionality: An exponential growth of the work (number of function evaluations) in terms of the dimension of the integration problem. 10
  • 14. Methodology 5 We design efficient fast hierarchical pricing methods, for options whose underlyings follow the rough Bergomi model, based on 1 Analytic smoothing to uncover available regularity. 2 Approximating the resulting integral of the smoothed payoff using deterministic quadrature methods ▸ Adaptive sparse grids quadrature (ASGQ). ▸ Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC). 3 Combining our methods with hierarchical representations ▸ Brownian bridges as a Wiener path generation method ⇒ the effective dimension of the problem. ▸ Richardson Extrapolation (Condition: weak error expansion in ∆t) ⇒ Faster convergence of the weak error ⇒ number of time steps (smaller dimension). 5 Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone. “Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough Bergomi model”. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in Quantitative Finance Journal) 11
  • 15. Contributions 6 1 First to design a fast pricing method, in the context of rough volatility models, based on deterministic integration methods. 2 Our proposed methods outperform significantly the MC approach, which is the only prevalent method in this context. 3 We propose an original way to overcome the high dimensionality of the integration domain, by ▸ Reducing the total input dimension using Richardson extrapolation. ▸ Combining the Brownian bridge construction with ASGQ or QMC. 4 Our proposed methodology shows a robust performance with respect to the values of the Hurst parameter H. 5 First to show numerically that both hybrid and exact schemes have a weak error of order one, in the practical ranges of discretization (for a certain class of payoff functions). 6 Our approach is applicable to a wide class of stochastic volatility models and in particular rough volatility models. 6 Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone. “Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough Bergomi model”. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in Quantitative Finance Journal) 12
  • 16. 1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation & Challenges 2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods 3 Numerical Experiments and Results 4 Conclusions and Future Work 12
  • 17. Simulation of the Rough Bergomi Dynamics Goal: Simulate jointly (W1 t , ̃WH t 0 ≤ t ≤ T), resulting in W1 t1 ,...,WtN and ̃WH t1 ,..., ̃WH tN along a given grid t1 < ⋅⋅⋅ < tN 1 Covariance based approach (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral 2016) ▸ 2N-dimensional Gaussian random as input vector. ▸ Based on Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix of the (2N)-dimensional Gaussian random vector W1 t1 ,...,W1 tN , ̃WH t1 ,..., ̃WtN . ▸ Exact method but slow ▸ Work: O (N2 ). 2 The hybrid scheme (Bennedsen, Lunde, and Pakkanen 2017) ▸ 2N-dimensional Gaussian random as input vector. ▸ Based on Euler discretization ▸ Approximates the kernel function in (2) by a power function near zero and by a step function elsewhere. ▸ Accurate scheme that is much faster than the Covariance based approach. ▸ Work: O (N) up to logarithmic factors. 13
  • 18. On the Choice of the Simulation Scheme Figure 2.1: The convergence of the relative weak error EB, using MC with 6 × 106 samples, for example parameters: H = 0.07, K = 1,S0 = 1, T = 1, ρ = −0.9, η = 1.9, ξ0 = 0.0552. The upper and lower bounds are 95% confidence intervals. a) With the hybrid scheme b) With the exact scheme. 10−2 10−1 Δt 10−2 10−1 ∣E[g∣XΔt)−g∣X)]∣ weak_error Lb Ub rate=Δ1.02 rate=Δ1.00 (a) 10−2 10−1 Δt 10−3 10−2 10−1 ∣E[g∣XΔt)−g∣X)]∣ weak_error Lb Ub rate=Δ0.76 rate=Δ1.00 (b) 14
  • 19. Conditional Expectation for Analytic Smoothing CrB (T,K) = E [(ST − K) + ] = E[E[(ST − K)+ σ(W1 (t),t ≤ T)]] = E [CBS (S0 = exp(ρ∫ T 0 √ vtdW1 t − 1 2 ρ2 ∫ T 0 vtdt),k = K, σ2 = (1 − ρ2 )∫ T 0 vtdt)] ≈ ∫ R2N CBS (GrB(w(1) ,w(2) ))ρN (w(1) )ρN (w(2) )dw(1) dw(2) = CN rB. (3) Idea: (3) obtained by using the orthogonal decomposition of St into S1 t = E{ρ∫ t 0 √ vsdW1 s }, S2 t = E{ √ 1 − ρ2 ∫ t 0 √ vsdW⊥ s }, and then apply conditional log-normality. Notation: CBS(S0,k,σ2 ): the Black-Scholes call price, for initial spot price S0, strike price k, and volatility σ2 . GrB maps 2N independent standard Gaussian random inputs to the parameters fed to Black-Scholes formula. ρN : the multivariate Gaussian density, N: number of time steps. For a continuous (semi)martingale Z, E(Z)t = exp(Zt − Z0 − 1 2[Z,Z]0,t), where [Z,Z]0,t is the quadratic variation of Z. 15
  • 20. Sparse Grids (I) Notation: Given F Rd → R and a multi-index β ∈ Nd +. Fβ = Qm(β) [F] a quadrature operator based on a Cartesian quadrature grid (m(βn) points along yn). Approximating E[F] with Fβ is not an appropriate option due to the well-known curse of dimensionality. The first-order difference operators ∆iFβ { Fβ − Fβ−ei , if βi > 1 Fβ if βi = 1 where ei denotes the ith d-dimensional unit vector The mixed (first-order tensor) difference operators ∆[Fβ] = ⊗d i=1∆iFβ Idea: A quadrature estimate of E[F] is MI [F] = ∑ β∈I ∆[Fβ], 16
  • 21. Sparse Grids (II) E[F] ≈ MI [F] = ∑ β∈I ∆[Fβ], Product approach: I = { β ∞≤ ; β ∈ Nd +} ⇒ EQ(M) = O (M−r/d ) (for functions with bounded total derivatives up to order r). Regular sparse grids: I = { β 1≤ + d − 1; β ∈ Nd +} ⇒ EQ(M) = O (M−s (log M)(d−1)(s+1) ) (for functions with bounded mixed derivatives up to order s). Adaptive sparse grids quadrature (ASGQ): I = IASGQ (Next slides). EQ(M) = O (M−s ) (for functions with bounded weighted mixed derivatives up to order s). Notation: M: number of quadrature points; EQ: quadrature error. Figure 2.2: Left are product grids ∆β1 ⊗ ∆β2 for 1 ≤ β1,β2 ≤ 3. Right is the corresponding SG construction. 17
  • 22. ASGQ in Practice E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑ β∈IASGQ ∆[Fβ], The construction of IASGQ is done by profit thresholding IASGQ = {β ∈ Nd + Pβ ≥ T}. Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ = ∆Eβ ∆Wβ . Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β} − MI . Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β} ] − Work[MI ]. Figure 2.3: A posteriori, adaptive construction as in (Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given an index set Ik, compute the profits of the neighbor indices and select the most profitable one 18
  • 23. ASGQ in Practice E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑ β∈IASGQ ∆[Fβ], The construction of IASGQ is done by profit thresholding IASGQ = {β ∈ Nd + Pβ ≥ T}. Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ = ∆Eβ ∆Wβ . Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β} − MI . Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β} ] − Work[MI ]. Figure 2.4: A posteriori, adaptive construction as in (Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given an index set Ik, compute the profits of the neighbor indices and select the most profitable one 18
  • 24. ASGQ in Practice E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑ β∈IASGQ ∆[Fβ], The construction of IASGQ is done by profit thresholding IASGQ = {β ∈ Nd + Pβ ≥ T}. Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ = ∆Eβ ∆Wβ . Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β} − MI . Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β} ] − Work[MI ]. Figure 2.5: A posteriori, adaptive construction as in (Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given an index set Ik, compute the profits of the neighbor indices and select the most profitable one 18
  • 25. ASGQ in Practice E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑ β∈IASGQ ∆[Fβ], The construction of IASGQ is done by profit thresholding IASGQ = {β ∈ Nd + Pβ ≥ T}. Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ = ∆Eβ ∆Wβ . Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β} − MI . Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β} ] − Work[MI ]. Figure 2.6: A posteriori, adaptive construction as in (Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given an index set Ik, compute the profits of the neighbor indices and select the most profitable one 18
  • 26. ASGQ in Practice E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑ β∈IASGQ ∆[Fβ], The construction of IASGQ is done by profit thresholding IASGQ = {β ∈ Nd + Pβ ≥ T}. Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ = ∆Eβ ∆Wβ . Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β} − MI . Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β} ] − Work[MI ]. Figure 2.7: A posteriori, adaptive construction as in (Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given an index set Ik, compute the profits of the neighbor indices and select the most profitable one 18
  • 27. ASGQ in Practice E[F] ≈ MIASGQ [F] = ∑ β∈IASGQ ∆[Fβ], The construction of IASGQ is done by profit thresholding IASGQ = {β ∈ Nd + Pβ ≥ T}. Profit of a hierarchical surplus Pβ = ∆Eβ ∆Wβ . Error contribution: ∆Eβ = MI∪{β} − MI . Work contribution: ∆Wβ = Work[MI∪{β} ] − Work[MI ]. Figure 2.8: A posteriori, adaptive construction as in (Haji-Ali et al. 2016): Given an index set Ik, compute the profits of the neighbor indices and select the most profitable one 18
  • 28. Randomized QMC A (rank-1) lattice rule (Sloan 1985; Nuyens 2014) with n points Qn(f) = 1 n n−1 ∑ k=0 f ( kz mod n n ), where z = (z1,...,zd) ∈ Nd (the generating vector). A randomly shifted lattice rule Qn,q(f) = 1 q q−1 ∑ i=0 Q(i) n (f) = 1 q q−1 ∑ i=0 ( 1 n n−1 ∑ k=0 f ( kz + ∆(i) mod n n )), (4) where {∆(i) }q i=1: independent random shifts, and MQMC = q × n. ▸ Unbiased approximation of the integral. ▸ Practical error estimate. EQ(M) = O (M−1 log(M)d−1 ) (for functions with bounded mixed derivatives). 19
  • 29. Wiener Path Generation Methods {ti}N i=0: Grid of time steps, {Bti }N i=0: Brownian motion increments Random Walk ▸ Proceeds incrementally, given Bti , Bti+1 = Bti + √ ∆tzi, zi ∼ N(0,1). ▸ All components of z = (z1,...,zN ) have the same scale of importance (in terms of variance): isotropic. Hierarchical Brownian Bridge ▸ Given a past value Bti and a future value Btk , the value Btj (with ti < tj < tk) can be generated according to (ρ = j−i k−i ) Btj = (1 − ρ)Bti + ρBtk + zj √ ρ(1 − ρ)(k − i)∆t, zj ∼ N(0,1). ▸ The most important values (capture a large part of the total variance) are the first components of z = (z1,...,zN ). ▸ the effective dimension (# important dimensions) by anisotropy between different directions ⇒ Faster convergence of deterministic quadrature methods. 20
  • 30. 1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation & Challenges 2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods 3 Numerical Experiments and Results 4 Conclusions and Future Work 20
  • 31. Numerical Experiments Table 1: Reference solution (using MC with 500 time steps and number of samples, M = 8 × 106 ) of call option price under the rough Bergomi model, for different parameter constellations. The numbers between parentheses correspond to the statistical errors estimates. Parameters Reference solution H = 0.07,K = 1,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.9,η = 1.9,ξ0 = 0.0552 0.0791 (5.6e−05) H = 0.02,K = 1,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.7,η = 0.4,ξ0 = 0.1 0.1246 (9.0e−05) H = 0.02,K = 0.8,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.7,η = 0.4,ξ0 = 0.1 0.2412 (5.4e−05) H = 0.02,K = 1.2,S0 = 1,T = 1,ρ = −0.7,η = 0.4,ξ0 = 0.1 0.0570 (8.0e−05) Set 1 is the closest to the empirical findings (Gatheral, Jaisson, and Rosenbaum 2018), suggesting that H ≈ 0.1. The choice ν = 1.9 and ρ = −0.9 is justified by (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral 2016). For the remaining three sets, we test the potential of our method for a very rough case, where variance reduction methods are inefficient. 21
  • 32. Error Comparison Etot: the total error of approximating the expectation in (3). When using ASGQ estimator, QN Etot ≤ CRB − CN RB + CN RB − QN ≤ EB(N) + EQ(TOLASGQ,N), where EQ is the quadrature error, EB is the bias, TOLASGQ is a user selected tolerance for ASGQ method. When using randomized QMC or MC estimator, Q MC (QMC) N Etot ≤ CRB − CN RB + CN RB − Q MC (QMC) N ≤ EB(N) + ES(M,N), where ES is the statistical error, M is the number of samples used for MC or randomized QMC method. MQMC and MMC , are chosen so that ES,QMC(MQMC ) and ES,MC(MMC ) satisfy ES,QMC(MQMC ) = ES,MC(MMC ) = EB(N) = Etot 2 . 22
  • 33. Relative Errors and Computational Gains Table 2: In this table, we highlight the computational gains achieved by ASGQ and QMC over MC method to meet a certain error tolerance. We note that the ratios are computed for the best configuration with Richardson extrapolation for each method. The ratios (ASGQ/MC) and (QMC/MC) are referred to CPU time ratios in %. Parameters Relative error (ASGQ/MC) (QMC/MC) Set 1 1% 7% 10% Set 2 0.2% 5% 1% Set 3 0.4% 4% 5% Set 4 2% 20% 10% 23
  • 34. Computational Work of the MC Method with Different Configurations 10−2 10−1 100 Error 10−3 10−1 101 103 105 CPUtime MC slope= -3.33 MC+Rich(level 1) slope= -2.51 MC+Rich(level 2) Figure 3.1: Computational work of the MC method with the different configurations in terms of Richardson extrapolation’s level. Case of parameter set 1 in Table 1. 24
  • 35. Computational Work of the QMC Method with Different Configurations 10−2 10−1 100 Error 10−2 10−1 100 101 102 103 CPUime QMC slope= -1.98 QMC+Rich(level 1) slope= -1.57 QMC+Rich(level 2) Figure 3.2: Computational work of the QMC method with the different configurations in terms of Richardson extrapolation’s level. Case of parameter set 1 in Table 1. 25
  • 36. Computational Work of the ASGQ Method with Different Configurations 10−2 10−1 100 Error 10−2 10−1 100 101 102 103 CPUtime ASGQ slope= -5.18 ASGQ+Rich(level 1) slope= -1.79 ASGQ+Rich(level 2) slope= -1.27 Figure 3.3: Computational work of the ASGQ method with the different configurations in terms of Richardson extrapolation’s level. Case of parameter set 1 in Table 1. 26
  • 37. Computational work of the different methods with their best configurations 10−2 10−1 100 Error 10−3 10−2 10−1 100 101 102 103 104 CPUtime MC+Rich(level 1) slope= -2.51 QMC+Rich(level 1) slope= -1.57 ASGQ+Rich(level 2) slope= -1.27 Figure 3.4: Computational work comparison of the different methods with the best configurations, for the case of parameter set 1 in Table 1. 27
  • 38. 1 Option Pricing under the Rough Bergomi Model: Motivation & Challenges 2 Our Hierarchical Deterministic Quadrature Methods 3 Numerical Experiments and Results 4 Conclusions and Future Work 27
  • 39. Conclusions Proposed novel fast option pricers, for options whose underlyings follow the rough Bergomi model, based on ▸ Conditional expectations for analytic smoothing. ▸ Hierarchical deterministic quadrature methods. Given a sufficiently small relative error tolerance, our proposed methods demonstrate substantial computational gains over the standard MC method, for different parameter constellations. ⇒ Huge cost reduction when calibrating under the rough Bergomi model. More details can be found in Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone. “Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough Bergomi model”. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in Quantitative Finance Journal). 28
  • 40. Future Work 1 A more systematic comparison against the variant of MC proposed in (McCrickerd and Pakkanen 2018). 2 Provide a more reliable method for controlling the quadrature error for ASGQ which is, to the best of our knowledge, still an open research problem (more challenging in our context, especially for low values of H). 3 Accelerating our novel approach can be achieved by using ▸ Better versions of the ASGQ and QMC methods. ▸ An alternative weak approximation of rough volatility models, based on a Donsker type approximation, as recently suggested in (Horvath, Jacquier, and Muguruza 2017). 29
  • 41. References I Christian Bayer, Peter Friz, and Jim Gatheral. “Pricing under rough volatility”. In: Quantitative Finance 16.6 (2016), pp. 887–904. Christian Bayer, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, and Raul Tempone. “Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough Bergomi model”. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.08533, 2018 (To appear in Quantitative Finance Journal). Mikkel Bennedsen, Asger Lunde, and Mikko S Pakkanen. “Hybrid scheme for Brownian semistationary processes”. In: Finance and Stochastics 21.4 (2017), pp. 931–965. Jim Gatheral, Thibault Jaisson, and Mathieu Rosenbaum. “Volatility is rough”. In: Quantitative Finance 18.6 (2018), pp. 933–949. 30
  • 42. References II Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali et al. “Multi-index stochastic collocation for random PDEs”. In: Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering (2016). J Michael Harrison and Stanley R Pliska. “Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading”. In: Stochastic processes and their applications 11.3 (1981), pp. 215–260. Blanka Horvath, Antoine Jacquier, and Aitor Muguruza. “Functional central limit theorems for rough volatility”. In: Available at SSRN 3078743 (2017). Ryan McCrickerd and Mikko S Pakkanen. “Turbocharging Monte Carlo pricing for the rough Bergomi model”. In: Quantitative Finance (2018), pp. 1–10. 31
  • 43. References III Andreas Neuenkirch and Taras Shalaiko. “The Order Barrier for Strong Approximation of Rough Volatility Models”. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:1606.03854 (2016). Dirk Nuyens. The construction of good lattice rules and polynomial lattice rules. 2014. Ian H Sloan. “Lattice methods for multiple integration”. In: Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 12 (1985), pp. 131–143. Denis Talay and Luciano Tubaro. “Expansion of the global error for numerical schemes solving stochastic differential equations”. In: Stochastic analysis and applications 8.4 (1990), pp. 483–509. 32
  • 44. Thank you for your attention 32